Sassuolo v Bologna — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 15 March 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 16
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.05
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.43 – +0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
37.8%
Draw
26.1%
Bologna win
36.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Bologna are finishing below their chances — 2.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLLDWWDLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.3 xG
conceded 12
from 10.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.42–1.38 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.32–1.35 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 0.43 xGBologna 0.73 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Bologna attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 5' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Riccardo Orsolini |
| 5' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 6' |
 Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 10' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 13' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 14' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Nicolò Cambiaghi |
| 17' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jhon Lucumí |
| 37' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 43' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jens Odgaard |
| 46' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Thijs Dallinga |
| 47' |
Bologna |
Nicolò Cambiaghi | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Simon Sohm |
| 48' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 49' |
Bologna |
Thijs Dallinga | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 50' |
Bologna |
Jens Odgaard | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 50' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 53' |
Bologna |
Nikola Moro | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Juan Miranda |
| 56' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 59' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 61' |
Sassuolo |
Cristian Volpato | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 65' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 73' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nadir Zortea |
| 80' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 84' |
Bologna |
Riccardo Orsolini | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Federico Bernardeschi |
Players
Bologna
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riccardo Orsolini AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.02 | 0.44 |
| Nicolò Cambiaghi AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.26 |
| Jhon Lucumí DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.28 |
| Juan Miranda DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.29 |
| Lukasz Skorupski GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Martin Vitík DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Jens Odgaard AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 0.18 |
| Simon Sohm DMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.27 |
| Thijs Dallinga FW | 66 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 0.30 |
| Nikola Moro DMC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nadir Zortea Sub | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Lorenzo De Silvestri DR | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Remo Freuler Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Santiago Castro Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tommaso Pobega Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Federico Bernardeschi Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.06 | 0.33 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.17 | 0.22 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.12 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Ulisses García DL | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.16 |
| M'Bala Nzola Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Josh Doig Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Darryl Bakola Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |