Sassuolo v Genoa — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 3 November 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 16
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.53 – 0.70
Goals − xG
-0.32 – +0.17
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
41.3%
Draw
30.1%
Genoa win
28.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Genoa are finishing below their chances — 3.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WWLDDLLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 9.8 xG
conceded 14
from 15.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.29–1.03 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.30 | 1-1 12% | 49% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.32 xGGenoa 1.83 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Genoa attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14' |
 Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.30 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 14' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Thorsby |
| 15' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 17' |
Genoa |
Ruslan Malinovskiy | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
 Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 27' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 29' |
Genoa |
Vitinha | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ruslan Malinovskiy |
| 30' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 32' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.30 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 34' |
Genoa |
Brooke Norton-Cuffy | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 36' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 38' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 40' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ismaël Koné |
| 43' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 46' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.49 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 49' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Armand Lauriente |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 56' |
Genoa |
Lorenzo Colombo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 56' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 60' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 76' |
Genoa |
Caleb Ekuban | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morten Frendrup |
| 78' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 87' |
Genoa |
Johan Vásquez | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aarón Martín |
| 88' |
Genoa |
Junior Messias | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Caleb Ekuban |
| 92' |
Genoa |
Leo Østigard | 0.59 | Set Piece | — | Goal | Aarón Martín |
Players
Genoa
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Johan Vásquez DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Brooke Norton-Cuffy DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Aarón Martín DML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 0.00 | 1.15 | 0.60 |
| Morten Frendrup MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.09 |
| Nicola Leali GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Morten Thorsby MC | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.15 |
| Lorenzo Colombo FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0.85 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli DC | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Vitinha FW | 62 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Ruslan Malinovskiy MC | 62 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.11 | 0.24 |
| Junior Messias Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Patrizio Masini Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Caleb Ekuban Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Mikael Ellertsson Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Albert Grønbæk Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.43 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 89 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.47 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 81 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.06 | 0.27 |
| Josh Doig DL | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.63 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 67 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.13 | 0.69 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.11 | 0.42 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Luca Moro Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |