Sassuolo v Lazio — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 14 September 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 13
On target
3 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.77 – 0.19
Goals − xG
-0.23 – -0.86
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
16.5%
Draw
19.5%
Lazio win
64.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LWDWLLLLWD last 10
scored 13
from 18.0 xG
conceded 14
from 15.8 xG
Lazio have scored 12 from 12.7 expected and conceded 12 from 11.6 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLWDWLLWWW last 10
scored 12
from 12.7 xG
conceded 12
from 11.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.02–2.20 | 1-2 10% | 62% | 57% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 1.23 xGLazio 0.86 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Lazio attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13' |
 Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 18' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 31' |
 Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Matteo Cancellieri |
| 34' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 34' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.08 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 36' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.08 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 37' |
Sassuolo |
Domenico Berardi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 46' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Lazio |
Nuno Tavares | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Fisayo Dele-Bashiru |
| 54' |
Sassuolo |
Armand Lauriente | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 57' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Woyo Coulibaly |
| 61' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.34 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Matteo Guendouzi |
| 69' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.74 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Tarik Muharemovic |
| 69' |
Sassuolo |
Tarik Muharemovic | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cristian Volpato |
| 72' |
Lazio |
Pedro | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 74' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lazio |
Mattia Zaccagni | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 75' |
Lazio |
Boulaye Dia | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Reda Belahyane |
| 90' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
| 91' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 95' |
Lazio |
Danilo Cataldi | 0.05 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 95' |
Lazio |
Mario Gila | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Nuno Tavares |
Players
Lazio
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mattia Zaccagni FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Nuno Tavares DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0.07 | 0.16 | 0.17 |
| Mario Gila DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Adam Marusic DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Ivan Provedel GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Alessio Romagnoli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Matteo Guendouzi MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.34 |
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matteo Cancellieri FWR | 64 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.03 |
| Danilo Cataldi Sub | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Fisayo Dele-Bashiru MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Nicolo Rovella MC | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Reda Belahyane Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Boulaye Dia Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Pedro Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Gustav Isaksen Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Muharemovic DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.76 | 0.13 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.08 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.03 | 0.29 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Armand Lauriente FWL | 68 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Aster Vranckx MC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.21 |
| Woyo Coulibaly Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Alieu Fadera Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |