Sassuolo v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 26 October 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
11 – 15
On target
1 – 8
Shots in box
7 – 11
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.47 – 0.23
Goals − xG
-0.95 – -1.29
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sassuolo win
17.4%
Draw
26.6%
Roma win
56.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sassuolo are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
WLWDWLLLLW last 10
scored 13
from 16.6 xG
conceded 13
from 14.7 xG
Roma are finishing above their chances — 2.6 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LWDWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 24.4 xG
conceded 8
from 8.1 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.80–1.63 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.16–1.71 | 1-1 11% | 55% | 56% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sassuolo 0.95 xGRoma 2.29 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sassuolo attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.14 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrea Pinamonti |
| 6' |
Sassuolo |
Alieu Fadera | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kristian Thorstvedt |
| 6' |
Sassuolo |
Filippo Romagna | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 11' |
 Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 14' |
Roma |
Konstantinos Tsimikas | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 15' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 15' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 25' |
Sassuolo |
Sebastian Walukiewicz | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 26' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 31' |
Roma |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 32' |
Roma |
Bryan Cristante | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 39' |
Roma |
Paulo Dybala | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 45' |
Sassuolo |
Kristian Thorstvedt | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 51' |
Sassuolo |
Ismaël Koné | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Josh Doig |
| 53' |
Sassuolo |
Nemanja Matic | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Domenico Berardi |
| 56' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Paulo Dybala |
| 63' |
Sassuolo |
Andrea Pinamonti | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Sebastian Walukiewicz |
| 67' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.49 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Artem Dovbyk |
| 75' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.24 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 76' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 79' |
Roma |
Mehmet Zeki Çelik | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Wesley |
| 82' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
| 90' |
Sassuolo |
Walid Cheddira | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nemanja Matic |
| 92' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kouadio Kone |
| 95' |
Roma |
Lorenzo Pellegrini | 0.10 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Artem Dovbyk |
Players
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wesley DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.55 | 0.19 | 1.05 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.04 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Kouadio Kone MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.90 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.86 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.47 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Paulo Dybala FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.45 | 0.45 | 0.84 |
| Leon Bailey FW | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas DML | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Mario Hermoso Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
| Artem Dovbyk Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.86 | 1.00 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.63 |
| Devyne Rensch Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
Sassuolo
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Pinamonti FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.14 | 0.27 |
| Nemanja Matic MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.14 |
| Sebastian Walukiewicz DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.20 | 0.32 |
| Arijanet Muric GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Josh Doig DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Jay Idzes DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Alieu Fadera FWL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Ismaël Koné MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Kristian Thorstvedt MC | 63 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.06 | 0.29 |
| Domenico Berardi FWR | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.09 |
| Fali Candé Sub | 52 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Filippo Romagna DC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Aster Vranckx Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Volpato Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Walid Cheddira Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Armand Lauriente Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |