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Seattle Sounders FC v Real Salt Lake — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Thursday 24 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Seattle Sounders FC win
44.1%
model 41.2%
Draw
27.5%
model 26.4%
Real Salt Lake win
28.4%
model 32.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.5%
  2. 2-1 8.9%
  3. 1-0 8.8%
  4. 1-2 7.7%
  5. 0-1 7.6%

Goals

Over 2.552.1% Under 2.547.9%
BTTS yes56.3% BTTS no43.7%
Seattle Sounders FC 1+77.2% Seattle Sounders FC 2+43.4%
Real Salt Lake 1+72.3% Real Salt Lake 2+36.8%

Expected goals 1.48 – 1.29. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
56/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
1-3 goals
Multi goal · usually 57%
62.7% fair odds 1.60
moderate signal · 3105 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Seattle Sounders FC.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Seattle Sounders FC have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.4% for Real Salt Lake and 27.5% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.48 for Seattle Sounders FC and 1.28 for Real Salt Lake.

Why Seattle Sounders FC

Nothing in the data singles out Seattle Sounders FC.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 27.5%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.48 to 1.28. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Real Salt Lake can win

Nothing in the data singles out Real Salt Lake.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Seattle Sounders FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Real Salt Lake, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Seattle Sounders FC: 42% possession, 12.2 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Real Salt Lake: 45% possession, 9.6 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Seattle Sounders FC are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 56/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.48–1.29 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.48–1.22 1-1 13% 51% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to win 42.6% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.32
Real Salt Lake to win 30.7% 30.3% 29.9% 1.01× 3.30
Draw 26.6% 27.9% 24.9% 1.12× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC & not both score 22.3% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.57
Seattle Sounders FC & both teams score 20.4% 21.9% 24.4% 0.90× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 19.4% 17.9% 19.1% 0.94× 5.58
Real Salt Lake & not both score 15.5% 17.9% 12.3% 1.46× 5.58
Real Salt Lake & both teams score 15.2% 17.9% 17.8% 1.01× 5.58
Draw & not both score 7.2% 8.4% 5.8% 1.43× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC & over 1.5 33.2% 30.9% 37.1% 0.83× 3.24
Seattle Sounders FC & under 3.5 29.4% 26.0% 28.3% 0.92× 3.84
Seattle Sounders FC & over 2.5 25.9% 26.0% 30.9% 0.84× 3.84
Real Salt Lake & over 1.5 23.1% 21.7% 23.5% 0.92× 4.62
Real Salt Lake & under 3.5 22.1% 21.7% 18.8% 1.15× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 19.9% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.9% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.4% 18.0% 19.1% 0.94× 5.56
Real Salt Lake & over 2.5 18.1% 18.0% 20.3% 0.89× 5.56
Seattle Sounders FC & under 2.5 16.8% 18.0% 14.5% 1.24× 5.56
Seattle Sounders FC & over 3.5 13.3% 12.9% 17.2% 0.75× 7.77
Real Salt Lake & under 2.5 12.7% 12.9% 9.7% 1.32× 7.77
Seattle Sounders FC & under 1.5 9.4% 7.9% 8.4% 0.94× 12.69
Real Salt Lake & over 3.5 8.6% 7.9% 11.2% 0.70× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.2% 7.9% 5.8% 1.35× 12.70
Real Salt Lake & under 1.5 7.7% 7.9% 6.5% 1.21× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 8.9% 0.88× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 8.9% 0.88× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (1UP) 58.7% 58.2% 1.72
Real Salt Lake (1UP) 48.4% 43.3% 2.31
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (2UP) 42.6% 47.6% 2.10
Real Salt Lake (2UP) 30.7% 30.8% 3.25
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.9% 36.0% 2.78
Seattle Sounders FC to win 2nd half 35.2% 36.0% 2.78
Real Salt Lake to win 2nd half 28.8% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (+2.5) 91.8% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Real Salt Lake (+1.5) 78.9% 78.4% 76.7% 1.02× 1.28
Seattle Sounders FC (+0.5) 69.3% 68.7% 70.1% 0.98× 1.46
Real Salt Lake (+0.5) 57.4% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.75
Seattle Sounders FC (-0.5) 42.6% 43.0% 45.4% 0.95× 2.33
Real Salt Lake (-0.5) 30.7% 31.3% 29.9% 1.05× 3.20
Seattle Sounders FC (-1.5) 21.1% 21.6% 23.3% 0.93× 4.64
Seattle Sounders FC (-2.5) 8.2% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.62
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to concede 77.2% 79.0% 82.0% 0.96× 1.27
Real Salt Lake clean sheet 22.8% 21.0% 18.0% 1.17× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to concede in 1st half 47.1% 50.7% 1.97
Real Salt Lake clean sheet in 1st half 52.9% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 6.5 corners 78.4% 75.9% 1.32
Real Salt Lake over 2.5 corners 77.7% 75.9% 1.32
Real Salt Lake under 5.5 corners 67.5% 67.5% 1.48
Real Salt Lake over 3.5 corners 62.2% 61.8% 1.62
Real Salt Lake under 4.5 corners 53.6% 53.1% 1.88
Real Salt Lake over 4.5 corners 46.4% 46.9% 2.13
Real Salt Lake under 3.5 corners 37.8% 38.2% 2.62
Real Salt Lake over 5.5 corners 32.5% 32.5% 3.08
Real Salt Lake under 2.5 corners 22.3% 24.1% 4.16
Real Salt Lake over 6.5 corners 21.6% 24.1% 4.16
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 3.5 goals 96.4% 97.5% 93.9% 1.04× 1.03
Real Salt Lake under 2.5 goals 87.5% 87.9% 83.3% 1.06× 1.14
Real Salt Lake over 0.5 goals 70.5% 71.9% 73.2% 0.98× 1.39
Real Salt Lake under 1.5 goals 65.5% 67.9% 61.3% 1.11× 1.47
Real Salt Lake over 1.5 goals 34.5% 32.1% 38.7% 0.83× 3.12
Real Salt Lake under 0.5 goals 29.5% 28.1% 26.8% 1.05× 3.56
Real Salt Lake over 2.5 goals 12.5% 12.1% 16.7% 0.72× 8.25
Real Salt Lake over 3.5 goals 3.6% 2.5% 6.1% 0.40× 40.69
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake under 1.5 in 1st half 91.3% 94.1% 1.06
Real Salt Lake under 0.5 in 1st half 61.4% 64.1% 1.56
Real Salt Lake over 0.5 in 1st half 38.6% 35.9% 2.78
Real Salt Lake over 1.5 in 1st half 8.7% 5.9% 17.05
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (away no bet) 61.6% 62.1% 64.6% 0.96× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 38.4% 37.9% 35.4% 1.07× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake even goals 54.4% 52.8% 53.6% 0.99× 1.89
Real Salt Lake odd goals 45.7% 47.2% 46.4% 1.02× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.5% 87.6% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.5% 12.4% 8.04
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.5% 58.1% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.5% 41.9% 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.1% 55.0% 1.82
Seattle Sounders FC to score 2+ in a row 35.2% 36.4% 2.75
Real Salt Lake to score 2+ in a row 26.1% 25.0% 4.00
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.1% 16.4% 6.11
Seattle Sounders FC to score 3+ in a row 12.1% 12.2% 8.22
Real Salt Lake to score 3+ in a row 7.2% 5.6% 17.70
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+3.5) 89.7% 84.5% 1.18
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+2.5) 84.5% 79.7% 1.25
Seattle Sounders FC corners (+1.5) 77.7% 74.9% 1.34
Real Salt Lake corners (+3.5) 69.2% 65.8% 1.52
Real Salt Lake corners (+2.5) 60.1% 61.9% 1.62
Real Salt Lake corners (+1.5) 50.2% 52.5% 1.91
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-1.5) 49.8% 47.5% 2.10
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-2.5) 39.9% 38.1% 2.63
Seattle Sounders FC corners (-3.5) 30.8% 34.2% 2.92
Real Salt Lake corners (-1.5) 22.3% 25.1% 3.98
Real Salt Lake corners (-2.5) 15.5% 20.3% 4.94
Real Salt Lake corners (-3.5) 10.3% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 39.9% 33.7% 2.96
0-8 corners 31.3% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 28.8% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.7% 76.5% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 68.7% 67.7% 1.48
Under 12.5 corners 68.6% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 60.1% 63.4% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 59.0% 57.8% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 50.8% 53.3% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 49.2% 46.7% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 41.0% 42.2% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 39.9% 36.6% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 31.3% 32.3% 3.10
Over 12.5 corners 31.4% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 22.3% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.7% 11.5% 10.3% 1.11× 8.73
1-0 9.4% 7.4% 8.4% 0.89× 13.48
2-1 9.0% 7.4% 9.9% 0.75× 13.48
0-0 7.2% 7.4% 5.8% 1.27× 13.48
0-1 7.7% 7.4% 6.5% 1.14× 13.48
1-2 7.4% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.48
2-0 7.4% 7.4% 6.3% 1.18× 13.48
0-2 5.0% 7.4% 3.3% 2.23× 13.48
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 6.1% 1.22× 13.48
0-3 2.0% 1.7% 1.8% 0.93× 58.48
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
1-3 3.0% 1.7% 3.4% 0.50× 58.47
1-4 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.48
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.48
2-4 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.49
3-0 3.6% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.47
3-1 4.4% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.46
3-2 2.7% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.47
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.7% 2.49× 58.49
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.48
4-1 1.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.48
4-2 1.0% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.48
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.73× 58.49
Any other score 2.6% 1.7% 4.7% 0.36× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC leading at HT (DNB) 58.5% 58.0% 1.73
Real Salt Lake leading at HT (DNB) 41.5% 42.0% 2.38
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or Real Salt Lake (12) 73.4% 72.1% 75.1% 0.96× 1.39
Seattle Sounders FC or draw (1X) 69.3% 69.7% 70.1% 0.99× 1.44
Real Salt Lake or draw (X2) 57.4% 57.0% 54.6% 1.04× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or draw at HT 76.6% 79.8% 1.25
Real Salt Lake or draw at HT 67.0% 66.4% 1.51
Seattle Sounders FC or Real Salt Lake at HT 56.4% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or draw (1UP) 69.3% 76.1% 1.31
Real Salt Lake or draw (1UP) 57.4% 62.7% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC or draw in 2nd half 71.2% 73.7% 1.36
Real Salt Lake or draw in 2nd half 64.8% 64.0% 1.56
Seattle Sounders FC or Real Salt Lake in 2nd half 64.1% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.3% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.7% 38.4% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (DNB) 58.1% 58.3% 60.3% 0.97× 1.72
Real Salt Lake (DNB) 41.9% 41.7% 39.7% 1.05× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to score first 50.8% 53.7% 1.86
Real Salt Lake to score first 41.9% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 7.2% 7.5% 13.32
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.0% 51.4% 61.1% 0.84× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.0% 48.6% 38.9% 1.25× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.3% 41.6% 50.9% 0.82× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 36.7% 38.5% 29.9% 1.29× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.7% 12.3% 10.3% 1.20× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.3% 8.4% 9.2% 0.91× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 85.0% 83.1% 79.5% 1.05× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.0% 16.9% 20.5% 0.82× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.2% 74.0% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.8% 26.0% 3.84
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.3% 59.4% 1.68
Both score 2nd half only 24.4% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.8% 9.30
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.7% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.3% 17.6% 5.67
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.8% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.2% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.1% 47.4% 42.5% 1.12× 2.11
4-6 goals 26.6% 26.4% 33.1% 0.80× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.3% 22.8% 20.5% 1.11× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.8% 4.1% 0.44× 54.59
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 1 36.0% 36.0% 34.6% 1.04× 2.78
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 0 29.5% 27.4% 26.8% 1.02× 3.65
Real Salt Lake to score exactly 2 22.0% 22.4% 22.1% 1.01× 4.46
Real Salt Lake to score 3+ 12.5% 12.8% 16.7% 0.77× 7.80
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 1 33.7% 32.7% 31.0% 1.05× 3.06
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 2 24.9% 23.3% 26.0% 0.89× 4.30
Seattle Sounders FC to score exactly 0 22.8% 23.2% 18.0% 1.29× 4.30
Seattle Sounders FC to score 3+ 18.6% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.6% 43.1% 2.32
Seattle Sounders FC leading at HT 33.0% 33.6% 2.98
Real Salt Lake leading at HT 23.4% 20.2% 4.96
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC -1: 2 57.4% 56.7% 1.77
Seattle Sounders FC -1: X 21.5% 23.6% 4.24
Seattle Sounders FC -1: 1 21.1% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (0:1) 57.4% 55.8% 54.6% 1.02× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 21.5% 24.3% 22.2% 1.09× 4.12
Seattle Sounders FC (0:1) 21.1% 24.3% 23.3% 1.04× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (0:2) 78.9% 79.5% 76.7% 1.04× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 12.9% 11.0% 12.8% 0.85× 9.12
Seattle Sounders FC (0:2) 8.2% 7.7% 10.5% 0.73× 12.94
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (0:3) 91.8% 92.6% 89.5% 1.04× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.6% 5.8% 6.6% 0.88× 17.19
Seattle Sounders FC (0:3) 2.6% 2.4% 4.0% 0.59× 42.15
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (0:4) 97.4% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.9% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.46
Seattle Sounders FC (0:4) 0.7% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.60
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (1:0) 69.3% 70.0% 70.1% 1.00× 1.43
Draw (1:0) 17.7% 17.0% 16.8% 1.01× 5.87
Real Salt Lake (1:0) 13.1% 12.8% 13.2% 0.97× 7.80
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC (2:0) 86.9% 88.4% 86.8% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.8% 6.5% 8.7% 0.74× 15.47
Real Salt Lake (2:0) 4.3% 2.3% 4.6% 0.49× 44.10
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.3% 48.1% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.8% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to concede 70.5% 73.0% 73.2% 1.00× 1.37
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet 29.5% 27.0% 26.8% 1.01× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC clean sheet in 1st half 61.4% 64.1% 1.56
Seattle Sounders FC to concede in 1st half 38.6% 35.9% 2.79
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC over 2.5 corners 89.1% 86.3% 1.16
Seattle Sounders FC over 3.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% 1.31
Seattle Sounders FC over 4.5 corners 66.7% 66.7% 1.50
Seattle Sounders FC under 6.5 corners 58.7% 57.5% 1.74
Seattle Sounders FC over 5.5 corners 53.7% 52.8% 1.89
Seattle Sounders FC under 5.5 corners 46.3% 47.2% 2.12
Seattle Sounders FC over 6.5 corners 41.3% 42.5% 2.35
Seattle Sounders FC under 4.5 corners 33.3% 33.3% 3.00
Seattle Sounders FC under 3.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% 4.27
Seattle Sounders FC under 2.5 corners 10.9% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC under 3.5 goals 93.7% 92.3% 90.6% 1.02× 1.08
Seattle Sounders FC under 2.5 goals 81.4% 82.1% 74.8% 1.10× 1.22
Seattle Sounders FC over 0.5 goals 77.2% 77.7% 82.0% 0.95× 1.29
Seattle Sounders FC under 1.5 goals 56.5% 58.8% 48.9% 1.20× 1.70
Seattle Sounders FC over 1.5 goals 43.5% 41.2% 51.1% 0.81× 2.43
Seattle Sounders FC under 0.5 goals 22.8% 22.3% 18.0% 1.24× 4.49
Seattle Sounders FC over 2.5 goals 18.6% 17.9% 25.2% 0.71× 5.59
Seattle Sounders FC over 3.5 goals 6.3% 7.7% 9.4% 0.82× 12.92
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC under 1.5 in 1st half 86.6% 89.7% 1.12
Seattle Sounders FC over 0.5 in 1st half 47.1% 50.8% 1.97
Seattle Sounders FC under 0.5 in 1st half 52.9% 49.2% 2.03
Seattle Sounders FC over 1.5 in 1st half 13.4% 10.3% 9.71
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake (home no bet) 53.6% 51.6% 54.6% 0.95× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.4% 48.4% 45.4% 1.07× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC even goals 52.6% 50.6% 51.0% 0.99× 1.98
Seattle Sounders FC odd goals 47.4% 49.4% 49.0% 1.01× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.6% 32.3% 3.10
HT 1-0 20.6% 24.1% 4.16
HT 0-1 15.8% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 10.2% 10.9% 9.18
HT 2-0 6.6% 7.1% 14.06
Any other HT score 4.0% 2.3% 43.32
HT 0-2 3.9% 2.3% 43.33
HT 2-1 3.2% 2.3% 43.37
HT 1-2 2.5% 2.3% 43.43
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 25.2% 26.7% 3.75
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.2% 16.8% 5.97
Real Salt Lake at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 16.2% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 15.1% 16.7% 5.98
Draw at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 12.3% 12.7% 7.89
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% 16.72
Real Salt Lake at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.5% 28.77
Real Salt Lake at HT / Seattle Sounders FC at FT 2.3% 3.5% 28.87
Seattle Sounders FC at HT / Real Salt Lake at FT 2.2% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to score last 50.9% 51.9% 1.93
Real Salt Lake to score last 41.9% 40.0% 2.50
No goal scored 7.2% 7.5% 13.32
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.8% 92.6% 1.08
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 1 at any time 58.7% 55.1% 1.81
Real Salt Lake to lead by 1 at any time 48.4% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.8% 44.0% 2.27
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 2 at any time 27.4% 25.4% 3.93
Real Salt Lake to lead by 2 at any time 18.6% 14.9% 6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.9% 14.9% 6.72
Seattle Sounders FC to lead by 3 at any time 10.2% 10.4% 9.59
Real Salt Lake to lead by 3 at any time 5.7% 6.6% 15.14
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC most corners 59.8% 55.5% 1.80
Real Salt Lake most corners 30.7% 34.3% 2.92
Corners level 9.5% 8.5% 11.80
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.1% 87.4% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.0% 78.6% 73.1% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.6% 72.4% 75.5% 0.96× 1.38
2-5 goals 70.0% 69.0% 68.5% 1.01× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.2% 63.4% 57.2% 1.11× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.0% 63.4% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.6% 48.7% 55.9% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.1% 48.7% 42.5% 1.14× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.0% 43.6% 48.9% 0.89× 2.30
1-2 goals 42.1% 43.6% 34.4% 1.27× 2.30
3-4 goals 36.9% 39.1% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.6% 30.2% 33.1% 0.91× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.9% 24.5% 26.1% 0.94× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.7% 14.9% 17.2% 0.87× 6.72
7+ goals 2.1% 2.5% 4.1% 0.62× 39.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC never behind 44.3% 48.4% 2.07
Real Salt Lake never behind 34.0% 35.7% 2.80
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.7% 50.8% 50.2% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.3% 49.2% 49.8% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.5% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.5% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.5% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.5% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.3% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.8% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.3% 87.6% 78.8% 1.11× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.7% 77.3% 79.5% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.4% 72.5% 62.9% 1.15× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.7% 52.5% 59.9% 0.88× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.3% 47.5% 40.1% 1.19× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 28.6% 27.5% 37.1% 0.74× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.3% 22.7% 20.5% 1.11× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 13.7% 12.4% 21.2% 0.58× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 7.2% 7.7% 5.8% 1.32× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 5.7% 7.7% 11.1% 0.70× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.8% 92.5% 87.6% 1.06× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.9% 81.1% 74.8% 1.08× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.6% 67.4% 74.5% 0.90× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.3% 62.1% 51.9% 1.20× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.7% 37.9% 48.1% 0.79× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.4% 32.6% 25.5% 1.28× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.1% 18.9% 25.2% 0.75× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.2% 7.5% 12.4% 0.61× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.5% 89.1% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.9% 69.0% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.4% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.6% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.1% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.5% 10.9% 9.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 79.8% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.0% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.1% 53.2% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.9% 46.8% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.0% 20.2% 4.95
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake not to score in both halves 79.9% 78.3% 1.28
Seattle Sounders FC not to score in both halves 73.2% 73.8% 1.36
Seattle Sounders FC to score in both halves 26.8% 26.2% 3.82
Real Salt Lake to score in both halves 20.1% 21.7% 4.62
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.0% 54.0% 61.1% 0.88× 1.85
Only Seattle Sounders FC scores 22.3% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.48
Only Real Salt Lake scores 15.5% 16.1% 12.3% 1.31× 6.22
Neither team scores 7.2% 7.2% 5.8% 1.23× 13.91
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.0% 25.0% 19.7% 1.27× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 17.1% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 14.9% 12.1% 16.0% 0.75× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 8.0% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 7.2% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.09
6 or more goals 5.7% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.9% 45.0% 2.22
1 goal in 2nd half 32.2% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 20.9% 23.0% 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake not to win both halves 93.2% 94.0% 1.06
Seattle Sounders FC not to win both halves 88.3% 87.9% 1.14
Seattle Sounders FC to win both halves 11.7% 12.1% 8.28
Real Salt Lake to win both halves 6.8% 6.0% 16.57
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Seattle Sounders FC to win either half 56.5% 59.4% 1.68
Real Salt Lake to win neither half 54.6% 55.0% 1.82
Real Salt Lake to win either half 45.4% 45.0% 2.22
Seattle Sounders FC to win neither half 43.5% 40.6% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Real Salt Lake not to win to nil 84.5% 83.0% 87.7% 0.95× 1.20
Seattle Sounders FC not to win to nil 77.7% 78.1% 78.9% 0.99× 1.28
Seattle Sounders FC to win to nil 22.3% 21.9% 21.1% 1.04× 4.56
Real Salt Lake to win to nil 15.5% 17.0% 12.3% 1.38× 5.90
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.6% 27.8% 24.9% 1.12× 3.59
Seattle Sounders FC by 1 21.5% 24.1% 22.2% 1.09× 4.14
Real Salt Lake by 1 17.7% 16.9% 16.8% 1.01× 5.91
Seattle Sounders FC by 2 12.9% 11.8% 12.8% 0.92× 8.47
Real Salt Lake by 2 8.8% 7.3% 8.7% 0.83× 13.78
Seattle Sounders FC by 3+ 8.2% 7.3% 10.5% 0.69× 13.78
Real Salt Lake by 3+ 4.3% 2.7% 4.6% 0.59× 36.95
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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