Sevilla v Atletico Madrid — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 29 August 2026 · ESP-La Liga · 2627
La Liga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 12
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
12 – 9
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.14 – 0.71
Goals − xG
-0.08 – +1.49
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sevilla win
36.1%
Draw
25.3%
Atletico Madrid win
38.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sevilla are finishing above their chances — 2.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
LLWWWLLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 10.2 xG
conceded 14
from 12.8 xG
Atletico Madrid have scored 16 from 17.5 expected and conceded 15 from 16.0 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WWLWWLWDWL last 10
scored 16
from 17.5 xG
conceded 15
from 16.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.32–1.37 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.30–1.66 | 1-1 11% | 57% | 59% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sevilla 1.08 xGAtletico Madrid 1.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sevilla attacking right
Atletico Madrid attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.21 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Lee Kang-In |
| 5' |
 Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Julio Díaz |
| 19' |
Atletico Madrid |
Marc Pubill | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Álex Baena |
| 22' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 25' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ademola Lookman | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 27' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 32' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Marcos Llorente |
| 34' |
Sevilla |
Gabriel Suazo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 36' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ademola Lookman | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Baena |
| 36' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 38' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.02 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Jon Guridi | 0.03 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lucien Agoume |
| 45' |
Sevilla |
Kike Salas | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 46' |
Sevilla |
Juan Iglesias | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Baena | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Pablo Barrios Rivas |
| 51' |
Atletico Madrid |
Ademola Lookman | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Álex Baena |
| 51' |
Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Andrés Castrín |
| 52' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miguel Sierra |
| 54' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Julio Díaz |
| 57' |
Sevilla |
Giorgi Kochorashvili | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
| 57' |
Sevilla |
Peque | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Chidera Ejuke |
| 58' |
Sevilla |
Chidera Ejuke | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 60' |
Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Peque |
| 66' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Robbie Ure |
| 70' |
Sevilla |
Lucien Agoume | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Miguel Sierra |
| 72' |
Atletico Madrid |
Pablo Barrios Rivas | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Arnau Ortiz |
| 78' |
Sevilla |
Miguel Sierra | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrés Castrín |
| 79' |
Sevilla |
Robbie Ure | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juan Iglesias |
| 89' |
Atletico Madrid |
Arnau Ortiz | 0.47 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 89' |
Atletico Madrid |
Álex Grimaldo | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 95' |
Sevilla |
Giorgi Kochorashvili | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Alfon |
Players
Sevilla
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robbie Ure FW | 90 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0.49 | 0.08 | 0.57 |
| Kike Salas DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lucien Agoume DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Gabriel Suazo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.50 |
| Juan Iglesias DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.05 | 0.12 |
| Odisseas Vlachodimos GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrés Castrín DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.21 |
| Miguel Sierra AMR | 86 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.28 |
| Peque AMC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 0.70 |
| Jon Guridi DMC | 61 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Julio Díaz AML | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 0.42 |
| Giorgi Kochorashvili Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Chidera Ejuke Sub | 29 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.16 |
| Isaac Romero Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Alfon Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álex Baena FW | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.47 | 0.30 | 0.80 |
| Álex Grimaldo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Marc Pubill DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Pablo Barrios Rivas MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.15 | 0.55 |
| David Hancko DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Morten Hjulmand MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giuliano Simeone MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jan Oblak GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Lee Kang-In FW | 78 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.21 | 0.29 |
| Ademola Lookman ML | 72 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Marcos Llorente DR | 72 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.34 |
| Arnau Ortiz Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.47 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Giménez Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Koke Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Johnny Cardoso Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rodrigo Mendoza Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |