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Sevilla v Barcelona — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 9 February 2025 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–4
0.92 – 1.93 xG
Shots
8 – 10
On target
4 – 6
Shots in box
6 – 7
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 1.13
Goals − xG
+0.07 – +2.07
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.51.11.62.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Robert Lewandowski 6' — goalRuben Vargas 7' — goalFermín López 45' — goalRaphinha 54' — goalEric Garcia 88' — goal
Sevilla 0.93 xGBarcelona 1.93 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Lamine Yamal 6' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Robert Lewandowski 6' — Goal (0.61 xG, From Corner)Ruben Vargas 7' — Goal (0.54 xG, Open Play)Raphinha 14' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Nemanja Gudelj 28' — Blocked Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Ruben Vargas 28' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 35' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Jules Koundé 41' — Missed Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 44' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Fermín López 45' — Goal (0.48 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 46' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Lamine Yamal 48' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Raphinha 54' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Loic Bade 77' — Saved Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Kike Salas 78' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, From Corner)Loic Bade 78' — Blocked Shot (0.11 xG, From Corner)Suso 84' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Eric Garcia 88' — Goal (0.52 xG, Set Piece)
Sevilla attacking right Barcelona attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
6' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Pedri
6' Barcelona Robert Lewandowski 0.61 From Corner Left Foot Goal Iñigo Martínez
7' Sevilla Ruben Vargas 0.54 Open Play Right Foot Goal Saúl Ñíguez
14' Barcelona Raphinha 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Gavi
28' Sevilla Nemanja Gudelj 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
28' Sevilla Ruben Vargas 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Isaac Romero
35' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedri
41' Barcelona Jules Koundé 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Lamine Yamal
44' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.09 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
45' Barcelona Fermín López 0.48 Open Play Goal Pedri
46' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Pedri
48' Barcelona Lamine Yamal 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pedri
54' Barcelona Raphinha 0.04 Open Play Right Foot Goal Pau Cubarsí
77' Sevilla Loic Bade 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Suso
78' Sevilla Kike Salas 0.10 From Corner Blocked Shot Suso
78' Sevilla Loic Bade 0.11 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
84' Sevilla Suso 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Dodi Lukebakio
88' Barcelona Eric Garcia 0.52 Set Piece Goal

Players

Sevilla

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Loic Bade DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.12 0.00 0.03
Kike Salas DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.10 0.00 0.02
Dodi Lukebakio AMR 90 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.02 0.67
Ørjan Nyland GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Juanlu Sanchez DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.57
Isaac Romero FW 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.59
Adrià Pedrosa DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Nemanja Gudelj DMC 80 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.55
Saúl Ñíguez AMC 80 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.54 0.54
Ruben Vargas AML 67 1 0 2 0 0.59 0.00 0.59
Djibril Sow DMC 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Suso Sub 23 0 0 1 2 0.02 0.11 0.03
Chidera Ejuke Sub 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Manu Bueno Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.01
Lucien Agoume Sub 10 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marcão Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Barcelona

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Lamine Yamal AMR 90 0 0 4 1 0.19 0.07 0.29
Jules Koundé DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.71
Raphinha AML 90 1 0 2 0 0.06 0.00 0.61
Pedri DMC 90 0 1 0 5 0.00 0.67 0.71
Wojciech Szczesny GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.09
Álex Balde DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.71
Iñigo Martínez DC 90 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.61 0.74
Robert Lewandowski FW 75 1 0 1 0 0.61 0.00 0.00
Frenkie de Jong DMC 75 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.23
Pau Cubarsí Sub 69 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.54
Gavi AMC 50 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.03 0.03
Ronald Araújo DC 21 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.06
Fermín López Sub 16 1 0 1 0 0.48 0.00 0.52
Eric Garcia Sub 15 1 0 1 0 0.52 0.00 0.00
Dani Olmo Sub 15 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Gerard Martín Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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