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Sevilla v Rayo Vallecano — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 24 November 2024 · ESP-La Liga · 2425

La Liga xG

1–0
1.57 – 0.86 xG
Shots
11 – 9
On target
3 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 4
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.65 – 0.15
Goals − xG
-0.57 – -0.87
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.91.31.80'15'30'45'60'75'90'Djibril Sow 27' — goal
Sevilla 1.57 xGRayo Vallecano 0.87 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Albert Sambi Lokonga 9' — Missed Shot (0.23 xG, Set Piece)Dodi Lukebakio 10' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dodi Lukebakio 17' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Isaac Romero 20' — Missed Shot (0.36 xG, Set Piece)Randy Nteka 25' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Djibril Sow 27' — Goal (0.41 xG, Open Play)Álvaro García 32' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Unai López 40' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Direct Freekick)Dodi Lukebakio 57' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Randy Nteka 61' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Álvaro García 61' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Isaac Romero 63' — Missed Shot (0.33 xG, Open Play)Pedro Díaz 73' — Missed Shot (0.41 xG, Open Play)Álvaro García 76' — Shot On Post (0.03 xG, Open Play)Florian Lejeune 79' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, Open Play)Jesús Navas 81' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Juanlu Sanchez 86' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Sergio Camello 89' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)José Ángel Carmona 89' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Nemanja Gudelj 92' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)
Sevilla attacking right Rayo Vallecano attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
9' Sevilla Albert Sambi Lokonga 0.23 Set Piece Missed Shot Nemanja Gudelj
10' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
17' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot José Ángel Carmona
20' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.36 Set Piece Left Foot Missed Shot Djibril Sow
25' Rayo Vallecano Randy Nteka 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Florian Lejeune
27' Sevilla Djibril Sow 0.41 Open Play Right Foot Goal Isaac Romero
32' Rayo Vallecano Álvaro García 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Unai López
40' Rayo Vallecano Unai López 0.13 Direct Freekick Right Foot Blocked Shot
57' Sevilla Dodi Lukebakio 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Albert Sambi Lokonga
61' Rayo Vallecano Randy Nteka 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Álvaro García
61' Rayo Vallecano Álvaro García 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
63' Sevilla Isaac Romero 0.33 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Peque
73' Rayo Vallecano Pedro Díaz 0.41 Open Play Missed Shot Jorge De Frutos
76' Rayo Vallecano Álvaro García 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Shot On Post
79' Rayo Vallecano Florian Lejeune 0.01 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Pathé Ciss
81' Sevilla Jesús Navas 0.02 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Sevilla Juanlu Sanchez 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Blocked Shot
89' Rayo Vallecano Sergio Camello 0.02 Set Piece Missed Shot Pedro Díaz
89' Sevilla José Ángel Carmona 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Suso
92' Sevilla Nemanja Gudelj 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot

Players

Sevilla

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Isaac Romero FW 90 0 1 2 1 0.69 0.41 0.77
Albert Sambi Lokonga DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.23 0.04 0.40
José Ángel Carmona DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.03 0.46
Nemanja Gudelj DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.03 0.23 0.03
Álvaro Fernández GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.07
Kike Salas DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Loic Bade DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.40
Adrià Pedrosa DL 84 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.81
Djibril Sow AMC 83 1 0 1 1 0.41 0.36 0.48
Dodi Lukebakio AMR 76 0 0 3 0 0.09 0.00 0.09
Peque AML 76 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.33 0.37
Jesús Navas Sub 14 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.06
Suso Sub 14 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.06
Juanlu Sanchez Sub 7 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.00
Valentín Barco Sub 6 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Rayo Vallecano

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Álvaro García FWL 90 0 0 3 1 0.19 0.08 0.28
Abdul Mumin DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.53
Andrei Ratiu DR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.41
Augusto Batalla GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Pep Chavarría DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Florian Lejeune DC 89 0 0 1 1 0.01 0.02 0.54
Jorge De Frutos FWR 89 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.41 0.41
Randy Nteka FW 74 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.10
Gerard Gumbau MC 74 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Óscar Valentín MC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Unai López MC 45 0 0 1 1 0.13 0.10 0.10
Pathé Ciss Sub 41 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.01 0.43
Pedro Díaz Sub 16 0 0 1 1 0.41 0.02 0.41
Sergio Camello Sub 16 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.41
Isi Palazón Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrián Embarba Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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