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Sheffield United v Norwich City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Sheffield United win
40.5%
Draw
28.1%
Norwich City win
31.3%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.

DLDLLLLLLL last 10 scored 11 from 13.8 xG conceded 30 from 21.1 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.48–1.28 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.53–1.19 1-1 13% 51% 56%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 43.8% 43.0% 43.5% 0.99× 2.32
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 27.6% 1.01× 3.59
Norwich City to win 28.2% 27.9% 29.0% 0.96× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & not both score 22.4% 21.9% 23.4% 0.94× 4.57
Sheffield United & both teams score 21.4% 21.9% 20.2% 1.08× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 20.1% 21.9% 20.4% 1.07× 4.57
Norwich City & both teams score 14.5% 13.3% 13.8% 0.96× 7.54
Norwich City & not both score 13.6% 13.3% 15.3% 0.87× 7.54
Draw & not both score 8.0% 8.4% 7.3% 1.15× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United & over 1.5 35.1% 34.9% 32.5% 1.07× 2.87
Sheffield United & under 3.5 29.5% 26.0% 32.5% 0.80× 3.84
Sheffield United & over 2.5 27.4% 26.0% 26.4% 0.99× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 21.4% 21.7% 21.6% 1.00× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 21.4% 21.7% 21.6% 1.00× 4.62
Norwich City & over 1.5 21.7% 21.7% 21.4% 1.01× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 20.1% 21.7% 20.4% 1.06× 4.62
Norwich City & under 3.5 20.0% 21.6% 22.3% 0.97× 4.62
Norwich City & over 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Sheffield United & under 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 17.2% 1.05× 5.56
Sheffield United & over 3.5 14.3% 12.9% 11.1% 1.16× 7.77
Norwich City & under 2.5 11.1% 12.9% 13.0% 0.99× 7.77
Sheffield United & under 1.5 8.6% 7.9% 11.1% 0.71× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 7.3% 1.08× 12.70
Norwich City & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.70
Norwich City & under 1.5 6.4% 7.9% 7.7% 1.02× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1UP) 60.0% 62.9% 1.59
Norwich City (1UP) 46.5% 43.2% 2.32
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2UP) 43.8% 47.7% 2.10
Norwich City (2UP) 28.2% 24.9% 4.01
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win 2nd half 36.4% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 36.3% 36.0% 2.77
Norwich City to win 2nd half 27.3% 26.3% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (+2.5) 90.9% 92.1% 91.9% 1.00× 1.09
Norwich City (+1.5) 77.3% 78.4% 80.7% 0.97× 1.28
Sheffield United (+0.5) 71.8% 73.7% 71.0% 1.04× 1.36
Norwich City (+0.5) 56.2% 57.0% 56.5% 1.01× 1.75
Sheffield United (-0.5) 43.8% 43.0% 43.5% 0.99× 2.33
Norwich City (-0.5) 28.2% 26.3% 29.0% 0.91× 3.80
Sheffield United (-1.5) 22.7% 21.6% 19.3% 1.12× 4.64
Sheffield United (-2.5) 9.1% 7.9% 8.1% 0.98× 12.61
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City to concede 78.4% 79.0% 77.5% 1.02× 1.27
Norwich City clean sheet 21.6% 21.0% 22.5% 0.93× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City to concede in 1st half 48.3% 50.7% 1.97
Norwich City clean sheet in 1st half 51.7% 49.3% 2.03
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City over 2.5 corners 83.4% 81.0% 1.24
Norwich City under 6.5 corners 72.5% 72.3% 1.38
Norwich City over 3.5 corners 69.7% 68.3% 1.47
Norwich City under 5.5 corners 60.1% 61.4% 1.63
Norwich City over 4.5 corners 54.4% 52.4% 1.91
Norwich City under 4.5 corners 45.6% 47.6% 2.10
Norwich City over 5.5 corners 39.9% 38.6% 2.59
Norwich City under 3.5 corners 30.3% 31.7% 3.15
Norwich City over 6.5 corners 27.6% 27.7% 3.62
Norwich City under 2.5 corners 16.6% 19.0% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City under 3.5 goals 96.7% 97.5% 97.8% 1.00× 1.03
Norwich City under 2.5 goals 88.1% 87.9% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
Norwich City over 0.5 goals 69.6% 68.0% 69.4% 0.98× 1.47
Norwich City under 1.5 goals 66.6% 68.0% 69.9% 0.97× 1.47
Norwich City over 1.5 goals 33.4% 32.1% 30.1% 1.07× 3.12
Norwich City under 0.5 goals 30.4% 32.0% 30.6% 1.05× 3.12
Norwich City over 2.5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 9.5% 1.28× 8.26
Norwich City over 3.5 goals 3.3% 2.5% 2.2% 1.10× 40.70
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City under 1.5 in 1st half 91.7% 94.1% 1.06
Norwich City under 0.5 in 1st half 62.1% 64.1% 1.56
Norwich City over 0.5 in 1st half 37.9% 35.9% 2.79
Norwich City over 1.5 in 1st half 8.3% 5.9% 17.09
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (away no bet) 60.9% 62.1% 61.2% 1.01× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 39.1% 37.9% 38.8% 0.98× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City even goals 54.6% 52.8% 52.6% 1.00× 1.89
Norwich City odd goals 45.4% 47.2% 47.4% 1.00× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.2% 87.5% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.8% 12.5% 8.02
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 64.5% 58.2% 1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals 35.5% 41.8% 2.39
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 55.7% 55.1% 1.82
Sheffield United to score 2+ in a row 37.0% 36.5% 2.74
Norwich City to score 2+ in a row 24.9% 19.6% 5.11
Either team to score 3+ in a row 19.6% 16.4% 6.10
Sheffield United to score 3+ in a row 13.1% 12.2% 8.20
Norwich City to score 3+ in a row 6.7% 5.6% 17.74
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United corners (+3.5) 85.6% 84.2% 1.19
Sheffield United corners (+2.5) 79.1% 75.5% 1.33
Norwich City corners (+3.5) 77.0% 75.5% 1.33
Sheffield United corners (+1.5) 70.9% 69.9% 1.43
Norwich City corners (+2.5) 68.7% 66.8% 1.50
Norwich City corners (+1.5) 59.1% 56.8% 1.76
Sheffield United corners (-1.5) 40.9% 43.2% 2.32
Sheffield United corners (-2.5) 31.3% 33.2% 3.01
Norwich City corners (-1.5) 29.1% 30.1% 3.32
Sheffield United corners (-3.5) 23.0% 24.5% 4.08
Norwich City corners (-2.5) 20.9% 24.5% 4.08
Norwich City corners (-3.5) 14.4% 15.8% 6.31
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 40.7% 37.0% 2.70
9-11 corners 29.8% 31.8% 3.15
0-8 corners 29.5% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 79.5% 76.6% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 70.5% 72.5% 1.38
Under 12.5 corners 68.2% 67.9% 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 60.6% 62.7% 1.60
Under 11.5 corners 59.3% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 50.5% 52.2% 1.91
Under 10.5 corners 49.5% 47.8% 2.09
Over 11.5 corners 40.7% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 39.4% 37.3% 2.68
Over 12.5 corners 31.8% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 29.5% 27.5% 3.64
Under 7.5 corners 20.5% 23.4% 4.28
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.4% 11.5% 14.4% 0.79× 8.73
1-0 8.6% 7.4% 11.1% 0.67× 13.48
2-1 9.2% 7.4% 11.4% 0.65× 13.48
0-0 8.0% 7.4% 7.3% 1.02× 13.48
1-2 7.1% 7.4% 7.9% 0.94× 13.48
2-0 7.7% 7.4% 6.2% 1.20× 13.48
0-1 6.4% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.48
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 5.2% 1.42× 13.48
0-2 4.7% 1.7% 5.3% 0.32× 58.46
3-1 4.7% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.46
0-3 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.48
0-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.4% 3.98× 58.49
1-3 2.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.47
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 0.6% 2.84× 58.49
2-3 2.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.48
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.3% 6.63× 58.49
3-0 3.9% 1.7% 4.0% 0.42× 58.47
3-2 2.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.95× 58.47
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.48
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.3% 6.63× 58.49
4-0 1.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.48
4-1 1.8% 1.7% 0.9% 1.99× 58.48
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.21× 58.48
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 9.95× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 19.90× 58.49
Any other score 2.7% 1.7% 2.9% 0.59× 58.47
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United leading at HT (DNB) 60.4% 65.6% 1.53
Norwich City leading at HT (DNB) 39.6% 34.4% 2.90
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (1X) 71.8% 72.1% 71.0% 1.02× 1.39
Sheffield United or Norwich City (12) 71.9% 72.1% 72.4% 1.00× 1.39
Norwich City or draw (X2) 56.2% 57.0% 56.5% 1.01× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw at HT 77.7% 79.9% 1.25
Norwich City or draw at HT 65.9% 66.4% 1.51
Sheffield United or Norwich City at HT 56.5% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw (1UP) 71.8% 80.1% 1.25
Norwich City or draw (1UP) 56.2% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United or draw in 2nd half 72.7% 73.7% 1.36
Sheffield United or Norwich City in 2nd half 63.7% 64.0% 1.56
Norwich City or draw in 2nd half 63.6% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.5% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.5% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (DNB) 60.9% 62.8% 60.0% 1.05× 1.59
Norwich City (DNB) 39.1% 37.2% 40.0% 0.93× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score first 51.8% 53.8% 1.86
Norwich City to score first 40.2% 41.7% 2.40
No goal scored 8.0% 7.5% 13.27
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 56.0% 54.9% 54.2% 1.01× 1.82
Not both teams to score 44.0% 45.1% 45.8% 0.99× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.6% 41.6% 39.9% 1.04× 2.40
Not both score & under 2.5 35.4% 38.5% 37.3% 1.03× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 13.4% 12.3% 14.4% 0.85× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.6% 8.4% 8.6% 0.97× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.9% 83.1% 89.0% 0.93× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.1% 16.9% 11.0% 1.54× 5.91
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 69.8% 67.7% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.2% 32.3% 3.10
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 56.7% 59.3% 1.69
Both score 2nd half only 24.8% 20.9% 4.79
Both score 1st half only 13.1% 10.8% 9.29
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 14.84
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.5% 82.3% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.5% 17.7% 5.67
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.7% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 45.3% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.9% 47.4% 50.4% 0.94× 2.11
4-6 goals 27.0% 26.4% 22.4% 1.18× 3.78
0-1 goals 23.0% 22.8% 25.9% 0.88× 4.38
7+ goals 2.1% 1.8% 1.4% 1.33× 54.58
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City to score exactly 1 36.2% 36.0% 39.4% 0.91× 2.78
Norwich City to score exactly 0 30.4% 33.8% 30.6% 1.11× 2.96
Norwich City to score exactly 2 21.6% 22.4% 20.7% 1.08× 4.46
Norwich City to score 3+ 11.9% 12.8% 9.5% 1.36× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score exactly 1 33.1% 32.7% 36.9% 0.88× 3.06
Sheffield United to score exactly 2 25.4% 26.5% 24.6% 1.08× 3.77
Sheffield United to score exactly 0 21.6% 23.2% 22.5% 1.03× 4.30
Sheffield United to score 3+ 19.9% 18.9% 16.2% 1.17× 5.29
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.5% 43.1% 2.32
Sheffield United leading at HT 34.1% 33.6% 2.97
Norwich City leading at HT 22.3% 20.1% 4.97
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United -1: 2 56.2% 56.6% 1.77
Sheffield United -1: 1 22.7% 23.6% 4.24
Sheffield United -1: X 21.1% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (0:1) 56.2% 55.8% 56.5% 0.99× 1.79
Sheffield United (0:1) 22.7% 24.3% 19.3% 1.26× 4.12
Draw (0:1) 21.1% 24.3% 24.2% 1.00× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (0:2) 77.3% 79.4% 80.7% 0.98× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.6% 11.0% 11.3% 0.97× 9.11
Sheffield United (0:2) 9.1% 7.7% 8.1% 0.96× 12.93
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (0:3) 90.9% 92.6% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 6.1% 5.8% 4.8% 1.21× 17.18
Sheffield United (0:3) 3.0% 2.4% 3.4% 0.71× 42.13
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (0:4) 97.0% 98.1% 96.6% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.2% 1.2% 2.4% 0.50× 83.43
Sheffield United (0:4) 0.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.16× 83.59
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (1:0) 71.8% 72.5% 71.0% 1.02× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 16.1% 17.0% 17.3% 0.99× 5.87
Norwich City (1:0) 12.1% 12.8% 11.9% 1.08× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United (2:0) 87.9% 88.4% 88.1% 1.00× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 8.2% 6.5% 8.7% 0.74× 15.48
Norwich City (2:0) 3.9% 2.3% 3.3% 0.69× 44.12
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 46.7% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.3% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to concede 69.6% 66.6% 69.4% 0.96× 1.50
Sheffield United clean sheet 30.4% 33.4% 30.6% 1.09× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United clean sheet in 1st half 62.1% 64.2% 1.56
Sheffield United to concede in 1st half 37.9% 35.8% 2.79
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United over 2.5 corners 87.9% 85.2% 1.17
Sheffield United over 3.5 corners 76.6% 76.1% 1.31
Sheffield United under 6.5 corners 63.9% 62.0% 1.61
Sheffield United over 4.5 corners 63.0% 62.0% 1.61
Sheffield United under 5.5 corners 51.0% 53.0% 1.89
Sheffield United over 5.5 corners 49.0% 47.0% 2.13
Sheffield United under 4.5 corners 37.0% 38.0% 2.63
Sheffield United over 6.5 corners 36.1% 38.0% 2.63
Sheffield United under 3.5 corners 23.4% 23.9% 4.19
Sheffield United under 2.5 corners 12.1% 14.8% 6.76
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 3.5 goals 93.0% 92.3% 94.8% 0.97× 1.08
Sheffield United under 2.5 goals 80.1% 82.1% 83.8% 0.98× 1.22
Sheffield United over 0.5 goals 78.4% 77.8% 77.5% 1.00× 1.29
Sheffield United under 1.5 goals 54.7% 53.3% 59.4% 0.90× 1.88
Sheffield United over 1.5 goals 45.3% 46.7% 40.6% 1.15× 2.14
Sheffield United under 0.5 goals 21.6% 22.2% 22.5% 0.99× 4.50
Sheffield United over 2.5 goals 19.9% 17.9% 16.2% 1.11× 5.58
Sheffield United over 3.5 goals 7.0% 7.7% 5.2% 1.50× 12.91
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United under 1.5 in 1st half 85.8% 89.7% 1.12
Sheffield United over 0.5 in 1st half 48.3% 50.9% 1.97
Sheffield United under 0.5 in 1st half 51.7% 49.1% 2.04
Sheffield United over 1.5 in 1st half 14.2% 10.3% 9.67
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City (home no bet) 50.1% 51.6% 51.3% 1.01× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 49.9% 48.4% 48.7% 0.99× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United even goals 52.3% 50.6% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Sheffield United odd goals 47.7% 49.4% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.4% 32.3% 3.10
HT 1-0 20.9% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-1 15.1% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 10.3% 10.9% 9.18
HT 2-0 7.0% 7.1% 14.05
Any other HT score 4.2% 2.3% 43.30
HT 0-2 3.6% 2.3% 43.34
HT 2-1 3.3% 2.3% 43.37
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.3% 43.43
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.3% 43.55
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United at HT / Sheffield United at FT 26.3% 26.7% 3.74
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 17.3% 16.8% 5.97
Draw at HT / Sheffield United at FT 15.1% 16.7% 5.98
Norwich City at HT / Norwich City at FT 14.9% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Norwich City at FT 11.1% 12.7% 7.90
Sheffield United at HT / Draw at FT 5.7% 6.0% 16.72
Norwich City at HT / Draw at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.74
Norwich City at HT / Sheffield United at FT 2.4% 3.5% 28.87
Sheffield United at HT / Norwich City at FT 2.1% 3.5% 28.88
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to score last 51.9% 52.0% 1.93
Norwich City to score last 40.1% 39.9% 2.51
No goal scored 8.0% 7.5% 13.27
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.0% 92.6% 1.08
Sheffield United to lead by 1 at any time 60.0% 61.2% 1.63
Norwich City to lead by 1 at any time 46.5% 44.0% 2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 46.4% 44.0% 2.27
Sheffield United to lead by 2 at any time 29.1% 25.5% 3.92
Norwich City to lead by 2 at any time 17.6% 14.9% 6.70
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 16.5% 14.9% 6.71
Sheffield United to lead by 3 at any time 11.2% 10.4% 9.57
Norwich City to lead by 3 at any time 5.3% 6.6% 15.17
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United most corners 51.2% 52.9% 1.89
Norwich City most corners 38.6% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 10.3% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.2% 87.4% 88.8% 0.98× 1.14
1-4 goals 78.0% 78.6% 83.4% 0.94× 1.27
2-6 goals 74.8% 72.4% 72.8% 1.00× 1.38
2-5 goals 71.1% 72.4% 70.2% 1.03× 1.38
1-3 goals 62.9% 63.4% 69.1% 0.92× 1.58
2-4 goals 62.9% 63.4% 64.8% 0.98× 1.58
3-6 goals 49.1% 48.7% 47.1% 1.03× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.9% 48.7% 50.4% 0.96× 2.06
3-5 goals 45.4% 48.7% 44.5% 1.09× 2.06
1-2 goals 40.8% 43.6% 44.4% 0.98× 2.30
3-4 goals 37.2% 39.1% 39.1% 1.00× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.0% 30.2% 22.4% 1.35× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.3% 24.5% 19.8% 1.23× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.9% 14.9% 8.1% 1.84× 6.72
7+ goals 2.1% 2.5% 1.4% 1.85× 39.24
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United never behind 45.5% 56.4% 1.77
Norwich City never behind 32.0% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.0% 50.8% 49.4% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 53.0% 49.2% 50.6% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.6% 57.4% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 44.4% 42.6% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.1% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.9% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 96.0% 0.96× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.9% 87.6% 90.6% 0.97× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 77.0% 77.3% 74.1% 1.04× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 70.9% 72.5% 76.3% 0.95× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 51.2% 52.5% 48.4% 1.08× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 48.8% 47.5% 51.6% 0.92× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 29.1% 27.5% 23.7% 1.16× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 23.0% 22.7% 25.9% 0.87× 4.41
Over 4.5 goals 14.1% 12.4% 9.4% 1.32× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 7.3% 1.06× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 4.0% 1.96× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.8% 97.2% 98.6% 0.99× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.6% 92.5% 95.8% 0.97× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 83.4% 81.1% 89.1% 0.91× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 69.0% 67.4% 65.1% 1.04× 1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 62.6% 62.1% 68.5% 0.91× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 37.4% 37.9% 31.5% 1.21× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.0% 32.6% 34.9% 0.93× 3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 16.6% 18.9% 10.9% 1.73× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.4% 7.5% 4.2% 1.80× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.2% 2.8% 1.4% 1.96× 36.16
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.3% 89.0% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.4% 69.0% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.6% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.4% 31.0% 3.22
Over 1.5 in 1st half 31.6% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.7% 11.0% 9.13
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.1% 79.8% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.6% 79.8% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.4% 53.2% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.6% 46.8% 2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.4% 20.2% 4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.9% 20.2% 4.95
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City not to score in both halves 80.6% 84.2% 1.19
Sheffield United not to score in both halves 71.9% 73.8% 1.36
Sheffield United to score in both halves 28.1% 26.2% 3.81
Norwich City to score in both halves 19.4% 15.8% 6.34
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 56.0% 58.4% 54.2% 1.08× 1.71
Only Sheffield United scores 22.4% 22.3% 23.4% 0.96× 4.48
Only Norwich City scores 13.6% 10.9% 15.3% 0.72× 9.14
Neither team scores 8.0% 7.2% 7.3% 0.99× 13.90
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 25.8% 25.0% 25.8% 0.97× 4.01
Exactly 3 goals 22.1% 22.6% 24.7% 0.91× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 15.1% 17.4% 18.7% 0.93× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 15.1% 17.4% 14.4% 1.21× 5.74
Exactly 0 goals 8.0% 7.6% 7.3% 1.05× 13.08
Exactly 5 goals 8.2% 7.6% 5.5% 1.39× 13.08
6 or more goals 5.9% 7.6% 4.0% 1.93× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.6% 45.0% 2.22
1 goal in 2nd half 31.5% 33.4% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 20.9% 23.0% 4.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City not to win both halves 93.7% 94.0% 1.06
Sheffield United not to win both halves 87.3% 87.9% 1.14
Sheffield United to win both halves 12.7% 12.1% 8.26
Norwich City to win both halves 6.3% 6.0% 16.61
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sheffield United to win either half 57.9% 59.5% 1.68
Norwich City to win neither half 56.6% 59.4% 1.68
Norwich City to win either half 43.4% 40.6% 2.47
Sheffield United to win neither half 42.1% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Norwich City not to win to nil 86.4% 88.2% 84.7% 1.04× 1.13
Sheffield United not to win to nil 77.6% 78.1% 76.6% 1.02× 1.28
Sheffield United to win to nil 22.4% 22.0% 23.4% 0.94× 4.56
Norwich City to win to nil 13.6% 11.8% 15.3% 0.77× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.1% 27.9% 27.6% 1.01× 3.59
Sheffield United by 1 21.1% 24.1% 24.2% 1.00× 4.14
Norwich City by 1 16.1% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.91
Sheffield United by 2 13.6% 11.8% 11.3% 1.04× 8.47
Sheffield United by 3+ 9.1% 7.3% 8.1% 0.90× 13.77
Norwich City by 2 8.2% 7.3% 8.7% 0.84× 13.78
Norwich City by 3+ 3.9% 2.7% 3.3% 0.83× 36.96
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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