Sheffield United v Nottingham Forest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 4 May 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2324
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 15
On target
5 – 4
Shots in box
13 – 9
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.30 – 0.60
Goals − xG
-1.49 – +1.06
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sheffield United win
29.5%
Draw
26.5%
Nottingham Forest win
44.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sheffield United are finishing below their chances — 2.8 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 9.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DLDLLLLLLL last 10
scored 11
from 13.8 xG
conceded 30
from 21.1 xG
Nottingham Forest are finishing above their chances — 3.1 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWWWDLDLDD last 10
scored 19
from 15.9 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.11–1.42 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sheffield United 2.49 xGNottingham Forest 1.94 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sheffield United attacking right
Nottingham Forest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.32 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 8' |
 Sheffield United |
Jack Robinson | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ben Osborn |
| 16' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.76 | Right Foot | Goal | — | |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Danilo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 24' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danilo |
| 26' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Danilo |
| 31' |
Sheffield United |
Andre Brooks | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cameron Archer |
| 31' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oliver Arblaster |
| 33' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 33' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Arblaster |
| 36' |
Sheffield United |
Cameron Archer | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Ben Brereton Díaz |
| 38' |
Sheffield United |
Cameron Archer | 0.49 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Oliver Arblaster |
| 38' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Andre Brooks |
| 41' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.45 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 41' | Nottingham Forest | Danilo | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 45' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Danilo |
| 48' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 49' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Auston Trusty |
| 50' | Nottingham Forest | Ryan Yates | 0.42 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Willy Boly |
| 55' |
Sheffield United |
Gustavo Hamer | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 56' |
Sheffield United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Robinson |
| 60' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Danilo |
| 60' |
Sheffield United |
Cameron Archer | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jayden Bogle |
| 63' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 64' | Nottingham Forest | Callum Hudson-Odoi | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 72' | Nottingham Forest | Danilo | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 77' | Nottingham Forest | Chris Wood | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
| 78' | Nottingham Forest | Morgan Gibbs-White | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Callum Hudson-Odoi |
| 81' |
Sheffield United |
Vinicius Souza | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 85' |
Sheffield United |
Ben Brereton Díaz | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 88' |
Sheffield United |
Jack Robinson | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gustavo Hamer |
| 92' | Nottingham Forest | Ola Aina | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Morgan Gibbs-White |
Players
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Wood FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.84 | 0.00 | 0.88 |
| Ryan Yates DMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Callum Hudson-Odoi AML | 90 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.27 | 0.07 | 0.75 |
| Danilo DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.22 | 0.88 |
| Ola Aina DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.62 |
| Morgan Gibbs-White AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0.05 | 1.04 | 1.05 |
| Murillo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Matz Sels GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Willy Boly DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.42 | 0.47 |
| Gonzalo Montiel DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Anthony Elanga AMR | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.33 |
| Moussa Niakhate Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolás Domínguez Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Taiwo Awoniyi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Harry Toffolo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sheffield United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Brereton Díaz FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 1.01 | 0.36 | 0.73 |
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.26 | 0.11 | 0.36 |
| Gustavo Hamer MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 0.11 | 0.31 | 0.69 |
| Jack Robinson DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 0.35 |
| Oliver Arblaster MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.66 | 0.42 |
| Ben Osborn DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.14 |
| Auston Trusty DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.14 |
| Anel Ahmedhodzic DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Wes Foderingham GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cameron Archer FW | 81 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.96 | 0.06 | 0.53 |
| Andre Brooks MC | 73 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.34 |
| James McAtee Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vinicius Souza Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |