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Solihull Moors v Barrow — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · ENG-National League · 2627

ENG-National League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Solihull Moors win
36.1%
Draw
23.3%
Barrow win
40.6%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.46–1.56 1-1 11% 58% 60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to win 40.6% 43.0% 33.6% 1.28× 2.33
Solihull Moors to win 36.1% 36.4% 43.7% 0.83× 2.75
Draw 23.3% 24.4% 22.8% 1.07× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow & both teams score 21.8% 21.9% 17.3% 1.27× 4.57
Solihull Moors & both teams score 19.6% 17.9% 22.0% 0.81× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 18.9% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Barrow & not both score 18.7% 17.9% 16.5% 1.09× 5.58
Solihull Moors & not both score 16.5% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Draw & not both score 4.4% 4.9% 4.8% 1.03× 20.48
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow & over 1.5 32.6% 30.9% 27.7% 1.11× 3.24
Solihull Moors & over 1.5 28.6% 26.0% 34.4% 0.76× 3.84
Barrow & over 2.5 26.6% 26.0% 21.6% 1.21× 3.84
Barrow & under 3.5 25.7% 26.0% 24.2% 1.07× 3.84
Solihull Moors & over 2.5 23.4% 21.6% 29.0% 0.75× 4.62
Solihull Moors & under 3.5 23.3% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.9% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.1% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.1% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Barrow & over 3.5 14.9% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.77
Barrow & under 2.5 13.9% 12.9% 12.2% 1.05× 7.77
Solihull Moors & under 2.5 12.7% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.78
Solihull Moors & over 3.5 12.8% 12.9% 15.8% 0.81× 7.78
Solihull Moors & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 8.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 8.2% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Barrow & under 1.5 8.0% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 4.4% 4.8% 4.8% 1.01× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (1UP) 58.3% 58.0% 1.72
Solihull Moors (1UP) 54.5% 52.9% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (2UP) 40.6% 47.5% 2.11
Solihull Moors (2UP) 36.1% 36.9% 2.71
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to win 2nd half 36.4% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 32.9% 34.5% 2.90
Solihull Moors to win 2nd half 30.7% 34.4% 2.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (+2.5) 93.7% 92.1% 89.7% 1.03× 1.09
Barrow (+1.5) 83.2% 82.4% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Barrow (+0.5) 63.9% 62.9% 56.3% 1.12× 1.59
Solihull Moors (+0.5) 59.5% 57.0% 66.4% 0.86× 1.75
Barrow (-0.5) 40.6% 43.0% 33.6% 1.28× 2.33
Solihull Moors (-0.5) 36.1% 37.1% 43.7% 0.85× 2.69
Solihull Moors (-1.5) 16.8% 17.6% 20.6% 0.85× 5.68
Solihull Moors (-2.5) 6.3% 7.9% 10.3% 0.77× 12.68
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to concede 76.8% 79.0% 78.9% 1.00× 1.27
Barrow clean sheet 23.2% 21.0% 21.1% 1.00× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to concede in 1st half 46.7% 50.8% 1.97
Barrow clean sheet in 1st half 53.3% 49.2% 2.03
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow under 3.5 goals 92.6% 92.3% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Barrow under 2.5 goals 79.3% 76.2% 84.5% 0.90× 1.31
Barrow over 0.5 goals 79.1% 76.2% 73.5% 1.04× 1.31
Barrow under 1.5 goals 53.7% 53.7% 59.4% 0.90× 1.86
Barrow over 1.5 goals 46.3% 46.3% 40.6% 1.14× 2.16
Barrow under 0.5 goals 20.9% 23.8% 26.5% 0.90× 4.21
Barrow over 2.5 goals 20.7% 23.8% 15.5% 1.53× 4.21
Barrow over 3.5 goals 7.4% 7.7% 3.6% 2.10× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow under 1.5 in 1st half 87.0% 89.5% 1.12
Barrow under 0.5 in 1st half 53.5% 55.9% 1.79
Barrow over 0.5 in 1st half 46.5% 44.1% 2.27
Barrow over 1.5 in 1st half 13.0% 10.5% 9.55
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors (away no bet) 60.8% 62.1% 65.7% 0.94× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 39.2% 37.9% 34.3% 1.11× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow even goals 52.2% 52.7% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
Barrow odd goals 47.8% 47.3% 45.6% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.1% 83.1% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.9% 16.9% 5.92
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 69.5% 68.6% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 30.5% 31.4% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.8% 59.5% 1.68
Barrow to score 2+ in a row 36.4% 36.3% 2.76
Solihull Moors to score 2+ in a row 32.9% 28.5% 3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.7% 19.3% 5.18
Barrow to score 3+ in a row 12.6% 12.0% 8.34
Solihull Moors to score 3+ in a row 10.5% 11.9% 8.38
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.7% 11.5% 11.6% 0.99× 8.73
1-2 8.7% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
0-1 8.0% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.46
1-0 7.5% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.46
2-1 8.1% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.46
0-2 5.9% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.46
2-0 5.2% 7.4% 5.5% 1.34× 13.46
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 5.1% 1.47× 13.46
0-0 4.4% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.57
0-3 3.1% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.57
0-4 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
1-3 4.5% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
1-4 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.58
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.57
2-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
3-0 2.5% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.58
3-1 4.0% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
3-2 3.1% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.57
3-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.58
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.59
4-1 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.58
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
Any other score 3.8% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors leading at HT (DNB) 50.2% 55.4% 1.81
Barrow leading at HT (DNB) 49.8% 44.6% 2.24
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors or Barrow (12) 76.7% 75.6% 77.2% 0.98× 1.32
Barrow or draw (X2) 63.9% 63.6% 56.3% 1.13× 1.57
Solihull Moors or draw (1X) 59.5% 57.0% 66.4% 0.86× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors or draw at HT 70.5% 74.6% 1.34
Barrow or draw at HT 70.3% 74.5% 1.34
Solihull Moors or Barrow at HT 59.2% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow or draw (1UP) 63.9% 71.4% 1.40
Solihull Moors or draw (1UP) 59.5% 62.8% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow or draw in 2nd half 69.3% 65.6% 1.53
Solihull Moors or Barrow in 2nd half 67.1% 65.5% 1.53
Solihull Moors or draw in 2nd half 63.6% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.7% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.3% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (DNB) 52.9% 50.9% 43.4% 1.17× 1.96
Solihull Moors (DNB) 47.1% 49.1% 56.6% 0.87× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to score first 49.4% 45.7% 2.19
Solihull Moors to score first 46.2% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% 22.86
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 60.3% 56.5% 57.2% 0.99× 1.77
Not both teams to score 39.7% 43.5% 42.8% 1.02× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 49.7% 44.3% 45.8% 0.97× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 31.0% 34.4% 31.5% 1.09× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 10.7% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.6% 8.4% 11.4% 0.73× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.1% 83.1% 82.7% 1.00× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 19.9% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.7% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.3% 32.4% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 51.5% 56.1% 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 26.8% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 14.2% 10.5% 9.51
Both score in both halves 7.5% 6.7% 14.92
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.4% 81.7% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 21.6% 18.3% 5.47
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 59.1% 57.4% 1.74
A half without a goal 40.9% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.2% 42.1% 48.3% 0.87× 2.37
4-6 goals 32.4% 30.7% 29.5% 1.04× 3.26
0-1 goals 19.9% 20.3% 20.0% 1.01× 4.94
7+ goals 3.5% 1.8% 2.5% 0.72× 55.07
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to score exactly 1 32.7% 33.9% 33.1% 1.02× 2.95
Barrow to score exactly 2 25.6% 27.4% 25.2% 1.09× 3.65
Barrow to score exactly 0 20.9% 22.4% 26.5% 0.85× 4.47
Barrow to score 3+ 20.7% 22.4% 15.5% 1.44× 4.47
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors to score exactly 1 33.9% 32.7% 33.8% 0.97× 3.06
Solihull Moors to score exactly 2 24.8% 23.3% 23.6% 0.99× 4.30
Solihull Moors to score exactly 0 23.2% 23.3% 21.1% 1.10× 4.30
Solihull Moors to score 3+ 18.2% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.8% 43.1% 2.32
Solihull Moors leading at HT 29.7% 25.5% 3.93
Barrow leading at HT 29.5% 25.4% 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow -1: 1 59.5% 56.7% 1.76
Barrow -1: X 20.7% 23.6% 4.24
Barrow -1: 2 19.9% 17.5% 5.70
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (0:1) 63.9% 61.4% 56.3% 1.09× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.4% 17.8% 23.3% 0.76× 5.62
Solihull Moors (0:1) 16.8% 17.8% 20.6% 0.86× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (0:2) 83.2% 82.8% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.5% 11.0% 10.5% 1.05× 9.09
Solihull Moors (0:2) 6.3% 7.7% 10.3% 0.75× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (0:3) 93.7% 92.7% 89.7% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.4% 2.4% 5.5% 0.43× 41.95
Solihull Moors (0:3) 1.9% 2.4% 4.9% 0.48× 42.05
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (0:4) 98.1% 98.1% 95.1% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.4% 1.2% 3.6% 0.33× 83.31
Solihull Moors (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 0.84× 83.42
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors (1:0) 59.5% 58.2% 66.4% 0.88× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 20.7% 21.7% 17.6% 1.23× 4.61
Barrow (1:0) 19.9% 17.0% 16.2% 1.05× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors (2:0) 80.1% 84.5% 83.8% 1.01× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 12.0% 10.4% 10.1% 1.02× 9.62
Barrow (2:0) 7.9% 6.5% 6.2% 1.05× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.9% 48.3% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.7% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors to concede 79.1% 75.9% 73.5% 1.03× 1.32
Solihull Moors clean sheet 20.9% 24.1% 26.5% 0.91× 4.15
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors clean sheet in 1st half 53.5% 55.9% 1.79
Solihull Moors to concede in 1st half 46.5% 44.1% 2.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors under 3.5 goals 93.9% 92.2% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Solihull Moors under 2.5 goals 81.8% 82.1% 78.1% 1.05× 1.22
Solihull Moors over 0.5 goals 76.8% 77.7% 78.9% 0.98× 1.29
Solihull Moors under 1.5 goals 57.0% 58.8% 54.7% 1.08× 1.70
Solihull Moors over 1.5 goals 43.0% 41.2% 45.3% 0.91× 2.43
Solihull Moors under 0.5 goals 23.2% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.48
Solihull Moors over 2.5 goals 18.2% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.60
Solihull Moors over 3.5 goals 6.1% 7.8% 8.9% 0.87× 12.90
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors under 1.5 in 1st half 86.8% 89.9% 1.11
Solihull Moors over 0.5 in 1st half 46.7% 50.9% 1.96
Solihull Moors under 0.5 in 1st half 53.3% 49.1% 2.04
Solihull Moors over 1.5 in 1st half 13.2% 10.1% 9.92
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow (home no bet) 63.5% 60.2% 59.6% 1.01× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 36.5% 39.8% 40.4% 0.98× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors even goals 52.7% 50.6% 50.6% 1.00× 1.97
Solihull Moors odd goals 47.3% 49.4% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.4% 28.7% 3.49
HT 1-0 18.0% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 17.9% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-1 11.2% 11.0% 9.06
HT 2-0 5.6% 7.1% 14.13
HT 0-2 5.6% 7.1% 14.13
Any other HT score 5.1% 7.1% 14.14
HT 1-2 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.2% 44.85
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow at HT / Barrow at FT 22.3% 22.1% 4.52
Solihull Moors at HT / Solihull Moors at FT 21.1% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Barrow at FT 15.1% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.9% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Solihull Moors at FT 12.7% 12.7% 7.89
Solihull Moors at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
Barrow at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.09
Solihull Moors at HT / Barrow at FT 3.1% 3.4% 29.16
Barrow at HT / Solihull Moors at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.19
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to score last 49.4% 47.0% 2.13
Solihull Moors to score last 46.2% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 4.4% 4.4% 22.86
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.6% 95.6% 1.05
Barrow to lead by 1 at any time 58.3% 55.1% 1.82
Solihull Moors to lead by 1 at any time 54.5% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.4% 50.5% 1.98
Barrow to lead by 2 at any time 27.1% 25.2% 3.97
Solihull Moors to lead by 2 at any time 23.7% 19.6% 5.09
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.7% 15.0% 6.69
Barrow to lead by 3 at any time 10.3% 10.4% 9.61
Solihull Moors to lead by 3 at any time 8.4% 6.5% 15.28
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.9% 87.4% 88.1% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 76.6% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.6% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.4% 72.4% 72.9% 0.99× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.1% 63.5% 62.4% 1.02× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.7% 59.2% 63.6% 0.93× 1.69
3-6 goals 54.8% 53.2% 54.7% 0.97× 1.88
3-5 goals 49.6% 48.7% 49.9% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.2% 43.6% 48.3% 0.90× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.4% 39.2% 39.5% 0.99× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.3% 39.2% 38.4% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 32.4% 35.4% 29.5% 1.20× 2.83
4-5 goals 27.2% 30.2% 24.7% 1.22× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.4% 18.6% 15.4% 1.21× 5.38
7+ goals 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 1.00× 39.42
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow never behind 41.1% 48.1% 2.08
Solihull Moors never behind 37.3% 44.8% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.3% 50.8% 47.5% 1.07× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.7% 49.2% 52.5% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 53.9% 51.5% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.1% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.6% 95.5% 95.2% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 91.3% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 81.1% 82.4% 82.3% 1.00× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 80.1% 82.3% 80.0% 1.03× 1.21
Under 3.5 goals 64.1% 61.8% 68.1% 0.91× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 58.3% 58.8% 57.1% 1.03× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 41.7% 41.2% 42.9% 0.96× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 35.9% 38.2% 31.9% 1.20× 2.62
Under 1.5 goals 19.9% 17.7% 20.0% 0.88× 5.67
Over 4.5 goals 18.9% 17.6% 17.8% 0.99× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 8.7% 7.7% 7.3% 1.06× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 0.95× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.3% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.4% 92.4% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 77.2% 75.9% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.5% 72.6% 74.1% 0.98× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 53.8% 51.8% 57.4% 0.90× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 46.2% 48.2% 42.6% 1.13× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.5% 27.4% 25.9% 1.06× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 22.8% 24.1% 20.7% 1.16× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.6% 7.6% 8.1% 0.93× 13.24
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.7% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 36.34
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.7% 89.3% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.6% 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 64.4% 63.8% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 35.6% 36.2% 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.4% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.3% 10.7% 9.32
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.1% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 73.8% 78.0% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 52.7% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 47.3% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.2% 22.0% 4.54
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 16.9% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors not to score in both halves 73.6% 74.3% 1.35
Barrow not to score in both halves 71.7% 74.2% 1.35
Barrow to score in both halves 28.3% 25.8% 3.88
Solihull Moors to score in both halves 26.4% 25.7% 3.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 60.3% 60.2% 57.2% 1.05× 1.66
Only Barrow scores 18.7% 16.1% 16.5% 0.98× 6.20
Only Solihull Moors scores 16.5% 16.1% 21.9% 0.74× 6.21
Neither team scores 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 0.97× 21.70
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 25.4% 0.89× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.8% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 17.0% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.5% 17.4% 15.4% 1.14× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 10.3% 12.1% 10.6% 1.14× 8.29
6 or more goals 8.7% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.4% 4.4% 4.8% 0.93× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 52.7% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.4% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 16.9% 16.9% 5.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors not to win both halves 90.9% 93.9% 1.07
Barrow not to win both halves 89.3% 88.1% 1.14
Barrow to win both halves 10.7% 11.9% 8.43
Solihull Moors to win both halves 9.1% 6.1% 16.45
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Barrow to win either half 55.3% 59.3% 1.69
Solihull Moors to win either half 51.4% 54.7% 1.83
Solihull Moors to win neither half 48.6% 45.3% 2.21
Barrow to win neither half 44.7% 40.7% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Solihull Moors not to win to nil 83.5% 83.0% 78.1% 1.06× 1.21
Barrow not to win to nil 81.3% 83.0% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Barrow to win to nil 18.7% 17.0% 16.5% 1.03× 5.87
Solihull Moors to win to nil 16.5% 17.0% 21.9% 0.78× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.3% 24.1% 22.8% 1.06× 4.14
Barrow by 1 20.7% 24.1% 17.6% 1.37× 4.14
Solihull Moors by 1 19.4% 16.9% 23.3% 0.73× 5.90
Barrow by 2 12.0% 11.8% 10.1% 1.16× 8.46
Solihull Moors by 2 10.5% 11.8% 10.5% 1.13× 8.47
Barrow by 3+ 7.9% 7.2% 6.2% 1.17× 13.80
Solihull Moors by 3+ 6.3% 7.2% 10.3% 0.70× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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