Southampton v Chelsea — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 4 December 2024 · ENG-Premier League · 2425
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
6 – 26
On target
4 – 11
Shots in box
6 – 22
xG per shot
0.32 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
0.35 – 0.93
Goals − xG
-0.91 – -1.12
AI prediction
dc-xg-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Southampton win
21.4%
Draw
18.8%
Chelsea win
59.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LDLLDLLDLL last 10
scored 6
from 7.4 xG
conceded 18
from 18.4 xG
Chelsea are conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLLDWLWWL last 10
scored 13
from 14.4 xG
conceded 21
from 18.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| dc-xg-oos | 1.42–2.43 | 1-2 9% | 74% | 69% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Southampton 1.91 xGChelsea 6.12 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Southampton attacking right
Chelsea attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1' |
 Southampton |
Joe Ayodele-Aribo | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 6' |
 Chelsea |
Axel Disasi | 0.53 | From Corner | — | Goal | Enzo Fernández |
| 10' |
Southampton |
Joe Ayodele-Aribo | 0.58 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Kyle Walker-Peters |
| 16' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.19 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Noni Madueke |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 20' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 21' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 23' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.36 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | João Félix |
| 24' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Shot On Post | — |
| 29' |
Chelsea |
Enzo Fernández | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 31' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Manning |
| 33' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | João Félix |
| 35' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.13 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 36' |
Southampton |
Cameron Archer | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Ryan Manning |
| 39' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.35 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | James Bree |
| 45' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.26 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Cole Palmer |
| 46' |
Chelsea |
Moisés Caicedo | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Chelsea |
João Félix | 0.62 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 49' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 52' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Moisés Caicedo |
| 52' |
Chelsea |
Tosin Adarabioyo | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Shot On Post | — |
| 53' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | João Félix |
| 53' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.63 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 58' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Christopher Nkunku |
| 58' |
Southampton |
Mateus Fernandes | 0.37 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joe Ayodele-Aribo |
| 64' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marc Cucurella |
| 68' |
Chelsea |
Noni Madueke | 0.53 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 75' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.20 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Fernández |
| 76' |
Chelsea |
Cole Palmer | 0.89 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Christopher Nkunku |
| 84' |
Chelsea |
Christopher Nkunku | 0.14 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Malo Gusto |
| 86' |
Chelsea |
Jadon Sancho | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Malo Gusto |
Players
Chelsea
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| João Félix AML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.99 | 0.56 | 1.80 |
| Christopher Nkunku FW | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.65 | 1.02 | 1.53 |
| Axel Disasi DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Tosin Adarabioyo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Enzo Fernández DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.06 | 0.86 | 0.82 |
| Moisés Caicedo DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.62 |
| Filip Jorgensen GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Malo Gusto DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.83 |
| Cole Palmer AMC | 84 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 1.58 | 0.30 | 2.48 |
| Marc Cucurella DL | 84 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.96 |
| Noni Madueke AMR | 77 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 1 | 1.99 | 0.19 | 3.54 |
| Jadon Sancho Sub | 13 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Renato Veiga Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Southampton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Ayodele-Aribo MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1.09 | 0.37 | 1.52 |
| Kyle Walker-Peters DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | 0.58 |
| Ryan Manning DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 0.68 |
| Nathan Wood DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Joe Lumley GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 84 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.72 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| James Bree DR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 0.65 |
| Cameron Archer FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.05 |
| Ryan Fraser MC | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Adam Armstrong FW | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.58 |
| Jack Stephens DC | 38 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.68 |
| Kamaldeen Sulemana Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Brereton Díaz Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Yukinari Sugawara Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ronnie Edwards Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Charlie Taylor Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |