Southampton v Queens Park Rangers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 31 October 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Southampton

11:00

Queens Park Rangers

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,337h before kick-off

Southampton win

64.8%

model 65.9%

Draw

22.4%

model 20.1%

Queens Park Rangers win

12.7%

model 14.0%

652213

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-1 9.7%
2-0 9.4%
1-1 9.2%
3-1 7.6%
3-0 7.4%

Goals

Over 2.5	65.9%	Under 2.5	34.1%
BTTS yes	59.3%	BTTS no	40.7%
Southampton 1+	90.6%	Southampton 2+	68.3%
Queens Park Rangers 1+	64.4%	Queens Park Rangers 2+	27.6%

Expected goals 2.36 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

43/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1449.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 64.8% win probability, against 22.4% for the draw and 12.7% for Queens Park Rangers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.36 for Southampton and 1.03 for Queens Park Rangers.

Why Southampton

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1449. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.4%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Queens Park Rangers can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17).

Availability

2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Queens Park Rangers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Southampton: 60% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Queens Park Rangers: 46% possession, 16.4 shots a match, 10.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 64.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 43/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	701812	2.59–1.03	2-1 9%	70%	60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	70.0%	65.2%	43.5%	1.50×	1.53
Draw	18.0%	19.3%	27.6%	0.70×	5.17
Queens Park Rangers to win	12.0%	13.3%	29.0%	0.46×	7.52

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & both teams score	37.8%	33.2%	20.2%	1.64×	3.01
Southampton & not both score	32.2%	29.7%	23.4%	1.27×	3.37
Draw & both teams score	14.5%	13.3%	20.4%	0.65×	7.54
Queens Park Rangers & both teams score	8.0%	8.4%	13.8%	0.61×	11.93
Queens Park Rangers & not both score	4.0%	4.9%	15.3%	0.32×	20.56
Draw & not both score	3.5%	4.9%	7.3%	0.67×	20.58

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	63.9%	54.8%	32.5%	1.69×	1.83
Southampton & over 2.5	54.9%	48.8%	26.4%	1.85×	2.05
Southampton & over 3.5	37.8%	34.9%	11.1%	3.15×	2.87
Southampton & under 3.5	32.1%	30.9%	32.5%	0.95×	3.24
Southampton & under 2.5	15.1%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	14.5%	12.9%	20.4%	0.63×	7.77
Draw & under 2.5	11.5%	12.9%	21.6%	0.59×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	11.5%	12.9%	21.6%	0.59×	7.77
Queens Park Rangers & over 1.5	10.1%	12.9%	21.4%	0.60×	7.77
Queens Park Rangers & over 2.5	8.7%	7.9%	16.2%	0.49×	12.69
Queens Park Rangers & under 3.5	7.5%	7.9%	22.3%	0.35×	12.70
Southampton & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Queens Park Rangers & over 3.5	4.5%	4.8%	6.8%	0.70×	20.93
Draw & under 1.5	3.5%	4.8%	7.3%	0.65×	20.94
Queens Park Rangers & under 2.5	3.3%	4.8%	13.0%	0.37×	20.94
Queens Park Rangers & under 1.5	1.9%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.95

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	81.4%	86.9%	—	—	1.15
Queens Park Rangers (1UP)	32.2%	32.7%	—	—	3.06

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	70.0%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Queens Park Rangers (2UP)	12.0%	13.3%	—	—	7.52

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	57.7%	60.0%	—	—	1.67
2nd half drawn	27.0%	26.3%	—	—	3.81
Queens Park Rangers to win 2nd half	15.3%	18.8%	—	—	5.32

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (+0.5)	88.0%	88.5%	71.0%	1.25×	1.13
Queens Park Rangers (+2.5)	70.7%	73.7%	91.9%	0.80×	1.36
Southampton (-0.5)	70.0%	68.7%	43.5%	1.58×	1.46
Queens Park Rangers (+1.5)	50.6%	52.3%	80.7%	0.65×	1.91
Southampton (-1.5)	49.4%	47.7%	19.3%	2.47×	2.10
Queens Park Rangers (+0.5)	30.0%	31.3%	56.5%	0.55×	3.20
Southampton (-2.5)	29.3%	26.3%	8.1%	3.26×	3.80
Queens Park Rangers (-0.5)	12.0%	11.5%	29.0%	0.40×	8.70

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers to concede	92.5%	91.8%	77.5%	1.18×	1.09
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet	7.5%	8.2%	22.5%	0.36×	12.20

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers to concede in 1st half	67.1%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Queens Park Rangers clean sheet in 1st half	32.9%	30.7%	—	—	3.26

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers under 6.5 corners	77.4%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Queens Park Rangers over 2.5 corners	73.9%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Queens Park Rangers under 5.5 corners	67.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Queens Park Rangers over 3.5 corners	59.0%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Queens Park Rangers under 4.5 corners	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Queens Park Rangers over 4.5 corners	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Queens Park Rangers under 3.5 corners	41.0%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Queens Park Rangers over 5.5 corners	32.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Queens Park Rangers under 2.5 corners	26.1%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Queens Park Rangers over 6.5 corners	22.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.16

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers under 3.5 goals	97.9%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Queens Park Rangers under 2.5 goals	91.4%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Queens Park Rangers under 1.5 goals	72.5%	72.0%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Queens Park Rangers over 0.5 goals	64.3%	63.0%	69.4%	0.91×	1.59
Queens Park Rangers under 0.5 goals	35.7%	37.0%	30.6%	1.21×	2.70
Queens Park Rangers over 1.5 goals	27.5%	28.0%	30.1%	0.93×	3.57
Queens Park Rangers over 2.5 goals	8.6%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	13.03
Queens Park Rangers over 3.5 goals	2.1%	2.5%	2.2%	1.10×	40.77

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers under 1.5 in 1st half	93.5%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Queens Park Rangers under 0.5 in 1st half	66.2%	68.2%	—	—	1.47
Queens Park Rangers over 0.5 in 1st half	33.8%	31.8%	—	—	3.15
Queens Park Rangers over 1.5 in 1st half	6.5%	5.8%	—	—	17.29

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (away no bet)	79.6%	73.8%	61.2%	1.21×	1.36
Draw (away no bet)	20.4%	26.2%	38.8%	0.68×	3.82

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers even goals	56.4%	56.9%	52.6%	1.08×	1.76
Queens Park Rangers odd goals	43.6%	43.1%	47.4%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	72.2%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Both halves over 1.5 goals	27.8%	22.9%	—	—	4.36

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	79.5%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Both halves under 1.5 goals	20.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.68

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	73.8%	72.2%	—	—	1.39
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	65.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Either team to score 3+ in a row	39.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.74
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	36.1%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Queens Park Rangers to score 2+ in a row	16.9%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Queens Park Rangers to score 3+ in a row	3.4%	2.6%	—	—	38.50

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton corners (+3.5)	87.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Southampton corners (+2.5)	82.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Southampton corners (+1.5)	76.2%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Queens Park Rangers corners (+3.5)	66.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Queens Park Rangers corners (+2.5)	58.4%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Southampton corners (-1.5)	50.6%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Queens Park Rangers corners (+1.5)	49.4%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Southampton corners (-2.5)	41.6%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Southampton corners (-3.5)	33.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Queens Park Rangers corners (-1.5)	23.8%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Queens Park Rangers corners (-2.5)	17.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Queens Park Rangers corners (-3.5)	12.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.7%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	33.6%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.7%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.8%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	66.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	66.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	57.6%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	51.1%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.9%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.4%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	33.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	33.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	25.2%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Any other score	12.4%	11.5%	2.9%	3.92×	8.73
2-0	9.0%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-1	9.3%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.48
1-1	8.0%	7.4%	14.4%	0.51×	13.48
3-0	7.8%	7.4%	4.0%	1.84×	13.48
3-1	8.0%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.48
1-0	6.1%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.48
4-0	5.0%	7.4%	1.7%	4.32×	13.48
4-1	5.2%	7.4%	0.9%	8.64×	13.48
2-2	4.8%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.46
0-0	3.5%	1.7%	7.3%	0.23×	58.47
0-1	1.9%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.48
0-2	1.4%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.48
0-3	0.5%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.49
0-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.49
1-2	3.7%	1.7%	7.9%	0.22×	58.47
1-3	1.3%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.48
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.49
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
3-2	4.1%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.47
3-3	1.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.48
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
4-2	2.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.47
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.48
4-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.1%	19.90×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	79.8%	78.5%	—	—	1.27
Queens Park Rangers leading at HT (DNB)	20.2%	21.5%	—	—	4.66

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1X)	88.0%	86.7%	71.0%	1.22×	1.15
Southampton or Queens Park Rangers (12)	82.0%	80.7%	72.4%	1.11×	1.24
Queens Park Rangers or draw (X2)	30.0%	34.8%	56.5%	0.62×	2.87

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	86.5%	88.1%	—	—	1.14
Southampton or Queens Park Rangers at HT	66.8%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
Queens Park Rangers or draw at HT	46.7%	51.8%	—	—	1.93

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	88.0%	91.8%	—	—	1.09
Queens Park Rangers or draw (1UP)	32.2%	38.8%	—	—	2.58

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	84.7%	81.2%	—	—	1.23
Southampton or Queens Park Rangers in 2nd half	73.0%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
Queens Park Rangers or draw in 2nd half	42.3%	40.0%	—	—	2.50

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half drawn	49.7%	50.3%	—	—	1.99
A half drawn	50.3%	49.7%	—	—	2.01

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	85.3%	87.0%	60.0%	1.45×	1.15
Queens Park Rangers (DNB)	14.7%	13.0%	40.0%	0.32×	7.72

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	69.0%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Queens Park Rangers to score first	27.5%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.35

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	60.3%	56.5%	54.2%	1.04×	1.77
Not both teams to score	39.7%	43.5%	45.8%	0.95×	2.30

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	52.3%	47.1%	39.9%	1.18×	2.13
Not both score & under 2.5	22.0%	27.7%	37.3%	0.74×	3.61
Not both score & over 2.5	17.7%	21.7%	8.6%	2.53×	4.60
Both score & under 2.5	8.0%	8.4%	14.4%	0.58×	11.96

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	79.9%	80.0%	89.0%	0.90×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	20.1%	20.0%	11.0%	1.82×	5.00

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	64.2%	66.2%	—	—	1.51
Both teams to score in 2nd half	35.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	49.4%	53.5%	—	—	1.87
Both score 2nd half only	27.8%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Both score 1st half only	14.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.27
Both score in both halves	8.1%	6.8%	—	—	14.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	77.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	22.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	69.0%	67.0%	—	—	1.49
A half without a goal	31.0%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
4-6 goals	41.4%	42.1%	22.4%	1.88×	2.38
2-3 goals	39.6%	35.1%	50.4%	0.70×	2.85
0-1 goals	11.6%	16.9%	25.9%	0.65×	5.91
7+ goals	7.4%	7.6%	1.4%	5.52×	13.18

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Queens Park Rangers to score exactly 0	35.7%	36.0%	30.6%	1.18×	2.78
Queens Park Rangers to score exactly 2	18.9%	19.6%	20.7%	0.95×	5.11
Queens Park Rangers to score 3+	8.6%	8.5%	9.5%	0.90×	11.81

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score 3+	47.8%	36.9%	16.2%	2.28×	2.71
Southampton to score exactly 2	25.2%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Southampton to score exactly 1	19.5%	18.9%	36.9%	0.51×	5.29
Southampton to score exactly 0	7.5%	10.3%	22.5%	0.46×	9.72

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT	53.3%	48.2%	—	—	2.08
Draw at HT	33.2%	33.6%	—	—	2.98
Queens Park Rangers leading at HT	13.5%	11.9%	—	—	8.40

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 1	49.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Southampton -1: 2	30.0%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Southampton -1: X	20.5%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (0:1)	49.4%	46.0%	19.3%	2.38×	2.17
Queens Park Rangers (0:1)	30.0%	30.0%	56.5%	0.53×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	20.5%	24.3%	24.2%	1.00×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers (0:2)	50.6%	58.2%	80.7%	0.72×	1.72
Southampton (0:2)	29.3%	23.9%	8.1%	2.96×	4.18
Draw (0:2)	20.2%	20.3%	11.3%	1.79×	4.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers (0:3)	70.7%	77.7%	91.9%	0.85×	1.29
Southampton (0:3)	14.7%	10.0%	3.4%	3.00×	9.96
Draw (0:3)	14.5%	10.0%	4.8%	2.09×	9.96

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers (0:4)	85.3%	91.8%	96.6%	0.95×	1.09
Draw (0:4)	8.4%	4.7%	2.4%	1.94×	21.39
Southampton (0:4)	6.4%	4.6%	1.0%	4.50×	21.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1:0)	88.0%	86.4%	71.0%	1.22×	1.16
Draw (1:0)	7.7%	6.9%	17.3%	0.40×	14.44
Queens Park Rangers (1:0)	4.4%	3.2%	11.9%	0.27×	31.40

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2:0)	95.6%	96.9%	88.1%	1.10×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	3.2%	2.3%	8.7%	0.26×	44.17
Queens Park Rangers (2:0)	1.2%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.30

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.1%	50.1%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	64.3%	63.4%	69.4%	0.91×	1.58
Southampton clean sheet	35.7%	36.6%	30.6%	1.20×	2.74

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	66.2%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Southampton to concede in 1st half	33.8%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 2.5 corners	86.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Southampton over 3.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Southampton over 4.5 corners	64.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Southampton under 6.5 corners	58.0%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Southampton over 5.5 corners	52.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Southampton under 5.5 corners	47.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Southampton over 6.5 corners	42.0%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Southampton under 4.5 corners	35.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Southampton under 3.5 corners	24.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Southampton under 2.5 corners	13.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 0.5 goals	92.5%	92.3%	77.5%	1.19×	1.08
Southampton under 3.5 goals	73.9%	74.2%	94.8%	0.78×	1.35
Southampton over 1.5 goals	73.0%	74.2%	40.6%	1.83×	1.35
Southampton under 2.5 goals	52.2%	53.2%	83.8%	0.64×	1.88
Southampton over 2.5 goals	47.8%	46.8%	16.2%	2.90×	2.14
Southampton under 1.5 goals	27.0%	25.8%	59.4%	0.44×	3.87
Southampton over 3.5 goals	26.1%	25.8%	5.2%	5.01×	3.87
Southampton under 0.5 goals	7.5%	7.7%	22.5%	0.34×	12.91

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	69.4%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.0%	—	—	1.47
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	32.0%	—	—	3.13
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	30.6%	31.7%	—	—	3.15

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.9%	56.7%	48.7%	1.17×	1.76
Queens Park Rangers (home no bet)	40.1%	43.3%	51.3%	0.84×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	50.3%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Southampton odd goals	49.7%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 1-0	24.1%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 0-0	21.9%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 2-0	13.5%	10.9%	—	—	9.14
Any other HT score	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 1-1	10.1%	10.9%	—	—	9.18
HT 0-1	8.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
HT 2-1	5.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.07
HT 1-2	2.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.46
HT 0-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	1.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.53

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	47.7%	44.8%	—	—	2.24
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	18.6%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	10.0%	6.0%	—	—	16.59
Queens Park Rangers at HT / Queens Park Rangers at FT	6.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.70
Draw at HT / Queens Park Rangers at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	4.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Queens Park Rangers at HT / Southampton at FT	3.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Queens Park Rangers at HT / Draw at FT	3.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.82
Southampton at HT / Queens Park Rangers at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	69.2%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Queens Park Rangers to score last	27.3%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
No goal scored	3.5%	4.3%	—	—	23.35

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.5%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	81.4%	87.0%	—	—	1.15
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	65.4%	69.4%	—	—	1.44
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	56.9%	55.1%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	35.4%	34.8%	—	—	2.88
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	33.3%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Queens Park Rangers to lead by 1 at any time	32.2%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Queens Park Rangers to lead by 2 at any time	9.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.98
Queens Park Rangers to lead by 3 at any time	2.1%	1.6%	—	—	62.22

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton most corners	59.7%	55.5%	—	—	1.80
Queens Park Rangers most corners	31.6%	34.3%	—	—	2.92
Corners level	8.7%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-6 goals	81.1%	83.5%	72.8%	1.15×	1.20
1-5 goals	80.7%	83.5%	88.8%	0.94×	1.20
2-5 goals	72.7%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	66.8%	69.0%	83.4%	0.83×	1.45
3-6 goals	62.6%	63.4%	47.1%	1.35×	1.58
2-4 goals	58.8%	59.2%	64.8%	0.91×	1.69
3-5 goals	54.3%	53.2%	44.5%	1.20×	1.88
1-3 goals	47.7%	48.7%	69.1%	0.70×	2.06
4-6 goals	41.4%	43.6%	22.4%	1.94×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.4%	43.6%	39.1%	1.11×	2.30
2-3 goals	39.6%	39.2%	50.4%	0.78×	2.55
4-5 goals	33.1%	35.4%	19.8%	1.78×	2.83
1-2 goals	26.5%	30.2%	44.4%	0.68×	3.31
5-6 goals	22.2%	24.5%	8.1%	3.03×	4.09
7+ goals	7.4%	8.7%	1.4%	6.35×	11.45

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	64.3%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Queens Park Rangers never behind	15.1%	18.3%	—	—	5.45

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	48.3%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	51.7%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.7%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.3%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.5%	95.5%	92.7%	1.03×	1.05
Over 1.5 goals	88.4%	87.7%	74.1%	1.18×	1.14
Under 5.5 goals	84.2%	82.4%	96.0%	0.86×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	70.4%	72.5%	90.6%	0.80×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	70.0%	72.5%	48.4%	1.50×	1.38
Under 3.5 goals	51.2%	52.5%	76.3%	0.69×	1.91
Over 3.5 goals	48.8%	47.5%	23.7%	2.00×	2.10
Under 2.5 goals	30.0%	27.5%	51.6%	0.53×	3.64
Over 4.5 goals	29.6%	27.5%	9.4%	2.93×	3.64
Over 5.5 goals	15.8%	17.6%	4.0%	4.46×	5.68
Under 1.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	25.9%	0.48×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	3.5%	4.5%	7.3%	0.62×	22.21

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	91.9%	92.5%	98.6%	0.94×	1.08
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	85.8%	86.7%	65.1%	1.33×	1.15
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	81.7%	81.0%	95.8%	0.85×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	63.3%	62.1%	89.1%	0.70×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.9%	62.1%	31.5%	1.97×	1.61
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.1%	37.9%	68.5%	0.55×	2.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	36.7%	37.9%	10.9%	3.47×	2.64
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	18.3%	19.0%	4.2%	4.54×	5.28
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	14.2%	13.3%	34.9%	0.38×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	8.1%	7.5%	1.4%	5.35×	13.26

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	80.3%	86.1%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	78.1%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	54.8%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Over 1.5 in 1st half	45.2%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Under 0.5 in 1st half	21.9%	21.2%	—	—	4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half	19.7%	13.9%	—	—	7.21

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	87.4%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	65.2%	67.4%	—	—	1.49
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	62.1%	61.7%	—	—	1.62
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	37.9%	38.3%	—	—	2.61
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	34.8%	32.6%	—	—	3.06
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	12.6%	14.7%	—	—	6.83

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers not to score in both halves	84.4%	84.4%	—	—	1.19
Southampton to score in both halves	51.8%	55.6%	—	—	1.80
Southampton not to score in both halves	48.2%	44.4%	—	—	2.25
Queens Park Rangers to score in both halves	15.6%	15.6%	—	—	6.40

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	60.3%	60.2%	54.2%	1.11×	1.66
Only Southampton scores	32.2%	33.3%	23.4%	1.43×	3.00
Only Queens Park Rangers scores	4.0%	4.6%	15.3%	0.30×	21.82
Neither team scores	3.5%	4.6%	7.3%	0.63×	21.84

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	21.2%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	19.2%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.74
Exactly 2 goals	18.4%	17.4%	25.8%	0.68×	5.74
6 or more goals	15.8%	17.4%	4.0%	4.41×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	13.9%	12.1%	5.5%	2.20×	8.27
Exactly 1 goals	8.0%	7.6%	18.7%	0.41×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	3.5%	4.4%	7.3%	0.60×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	62.1%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
1 goal in 2nd half	25.3%	29.7%	—	—	3.36
No goals in 2nd half	12.6%	14.4%	—	—	6.92

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers not to win both halves	97.9%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Southampton not to win both halves	69.0%	70.6%	—	—	1.42
Southampton to win both halves	31.0%	29.4%	—	—	3.40
Queens Park Rangers to win both halves	2.1%	2.7%	—	—	36.37

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	80.0%	82.6%	—	—	1.21
Queens Park Rangers to win neither half	73.4%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Queens Park Rangers to win either half	26.6%	27.0%	—	—	3.70
Southampton to win neither half	20.0%	17.4%	—	—	5.74

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Queens Park Rangers not to win to nil	96.0%	96.1%	84.7%	1.13×	1.04
Southampton not to win to nil	67.8%	69.7%	76.6%	0.91×	1.44
Southampton to win to nil	32.2%	30.3%	23.4%	1.30×	3.30
Queens Park Rangers to win to nil	4.0%	3.9%	15.3%	0.25×	25.82

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton by 3+	29.3%	27.9%	8.1%	3.45×	3.59
Southampton by 1	20.5%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Southampton by 2	20.2%	24.1%	11.3%	2.13×	4.14
Draw	18.0%	16.9%	27.6%	0.61×	5.91
Queens Park Rangers by 1	7.7%	7.3%	17.3%	0.42×	13.78
Queens Park Rangers by 2	3.2%	2.7%	8.7%	0.31×	36.98
Queens Park Rangers by 3+	1.2%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.05