Southampton v Swansea City — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 8 September 2026 · ENG-Championship · 2627

Championship results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Southampton

14:45

Swansea City

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 35h before kick-off

Southampton win

50.0%

model 49.8%

Draw

28.1%

model 26.0%

Swansea City win

21.9%

model 24.2%

502822

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
2-1 9.7%
2-0 8.2%
1-0 8.0%
0-0 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	56.4%	Under 2.5	43.6%
BTTS yes	58.7%	BTTS no	41.3%
Southampton 1+	82.9%	Southampton 2+	52.7%
Swansea City 1+	69.3%	Swansea City 2+	33.0%

Expected goals 1.77 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

46/100

Data quality

75/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Southampton over 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 41%

52.7% fair odds 1.90

moderate signal · 687 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Southampton not to win both halves

Win both halves

82.9% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 589 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1539.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Southampton have an estimated 50.0% win probability, against 28.1% for the draw and 21.9% for Swansea City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.76 for Southampton and 1.18 for Swansea City.

Why Southampton

Southampton carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1539. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.1%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Swansea City can win

Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Southampton's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Mateus Fernandes (0.20), Paul Onuachu (0.20), Cameron Archer (0.17).

Availability

2 of Southampton's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Swansea City, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Southampton: 60% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.24 xG a match from set pieces. Swansea City: 63% possession, 15.4 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Southampton are the model's most likely outcome at 50.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 46/100, data quality 75/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Southampton have scored 6 from 7.4 expected and conceded 18 from 18.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

LDLLDLLDLL last 10 scored 6 from 7.4 xG conceded 18 from 18.4 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	502624	1.77–1.18	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	542620	1.77–1.00	1-1 12%	52%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win	54.2%	51.5%	43.5%	1.18×	1.94
Draw	25.9%	27.9%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Swansea City to win	19.8%	19.4%	29.0%	0.67×	5.17

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & not both score	29.3%	25.2%	23.4%	1.08×	3.97
Southampton & both teams score	25.0%	21.9%	20.2%	1.08×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	18.4%	17.9%	20.4%	0.88×	5.58
Swansea City & both teams score	10.4%	13.3%	13.8%	0.96×	7.55
Swansea City & not both score	9.4%	8.4%	15.3%	0.55×	11.92
Draw & not both score	7.6%	8.4%	7.3%	1.15×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton & over 1.5	44.5%	40.3%	32.5%	1.24×	2.48
Southampton & under 3.5	35.2%	34.9%	32.5%	1.07×	2.87
Southampton & over 2.5	34.6%	30.9%	26.4%	1.17×	3.24
Southampton & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	17.2%	1.05×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	19.9%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	19.9%	18.0%	21.6%	0.83×	5.56
Southampton & over 3.5	19.0%	18.0%	11.1%	1.62×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	18.4%	18.0%	20.4%	0.88×	5.56
Swansea City & over 1.5	14.9%	12.9%	21.4%	0.60×	7.77
Swansea City & under 3.5	14.6%	12.9%	22.3%	0.58×	7.77
Swansea City & over 2.5	11.8%	12.9%	16.2%	0.80×	7.77
Southampton & under 1.5	9.8%	7.9%	11.1%	0.71×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	7.6%	7.9%	7.3%	1.08×	12.70
Swansea City & under 2.5	8.1%	7.9%	13.0%	0.61×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	6.0%	7.9%	6.0%	1.31×	12.70
Swansea City & over 3.5	5.2%	7.9%	6.8%	1.16×	12.70
Swansea City & under 1.5	4.9%	4.8%	7.7%	0.62×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1UP)	68.1%	70.0%	—	—	1.43
Swansea City (1UP)	38.1%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2UP)	54.2%	55.8%	—	—	1.79
Swansea City (2UP)	19.8%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win 2nd half	44.2%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
2nd half drawn	35.0%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Swansea City to win 2nd half	20.9%	23.0%	—	—	4.34

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City (+2.5)	85.8%	88.5%	91.9%	0.96×	1.13
Southampton (+0.5)	80.2%	82.4%	71.0%	1.16×	1.21
Swansea City (+1.5)	68.7%	68.7%	80.7%	0.85×	1.46
Southampton (-0.5)	54.2%	52.4%	43.5%	1.20×	1.91
Swansea City (+0.5)	45.8%	47.6%	56.5%	0.84×	2.10
Southampton (-1.5)	31.3%	31.3%	19.3%	1.62×	3.20
Swansea City (-0.5)	19.8%	17.6%	29.0%	0.61×	5.68
Southampton (-2.5)	14.2%	11.5%	8.1%	1.42×	8.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City to concede	83.0%	81.3%	77.5%	1.05×	1.23
Swansea City clean sheet	17.0%	18.7%	22.5%	0.83×	5.36

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City clean sheet in 1st half	46.7%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Swansea City to concede in 1st half	53.3%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City under 6.5 corners	80.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Swansea City over 2.5 corners	71.4%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Swansea City under 5.5 corners	70.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Swansea City under 4.5 corners	58.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Swansea City over 3.5 corners	55.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Swansea City under 3.5 corners	44.1%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Swansea City over 4.5 corners	41.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Swansea City over 5.5 corners	29.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Swansea City under 2.5 corners	28.6%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Swansea City over 6.5 corners	19.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City under 3.5 goals	98.1%	97.5%	97.8%	1.00×	1.03
Swansea City under 2.5 goals	92.0%	92.3%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Swansea City under 1.5 goals	73.6%	72.0%	69.9%	1.03×	1.39
Swansea City over 0.5 goals	63.2%	63.0%	69.4%	0.91×	1.59
Swansea City under 0.5 goals	36.8%	37.0%	30.6%	1.21×	2.70
Swansea City over 1.5 goals	26.4%	28.0%	30.1%	0.93×	3.57
Swansea City over 2.5 goals	8.0%	7.7%	9.5%	0.81×	13.03
Swansea City over 3.5 goals	1.9%	2.5%	2.2%	1.10×	40.78

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City under 1.5 in 1st half	93.9%	94.2%	—	—	1.06
Swansea City under 0.5 in 1st half	67.1%	68.3%	—	—	1.47
Swansea City over 0.5 in 1st half	32.9%	31.7%	—	—	3.15
Swansea City over 1.5 in 1st half	6.1%	5.8%	—	—	17.33

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (away no bet)	67.7%	66.4%	61.2%	1.08×	1.51
Draw (away no bet)	32.3%	33.6%	38.8%	0.87×	2.97

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City even goals	56.8%	56.9%	52.6%	1.08×	1.76
Swansea City odd goals	43.2%	43.1%	47.4%	0.91×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.5%	83.0%	—	—	1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.5%	17.0%	—	—	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	65.4%	68.5%	—	—	1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals	34.6%	31.5%	—	—	3.17

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	58.0%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Southampton to score 2+ in a row	45.3%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Either team to score 3+ in a row	22.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Southampton to score 3+ in a row	18.8%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Swansea City to score 2+ in a row	18.5%	16.4%	—	—	6.11
Swansea City to score 3+ in a row	4.1%	2.6%	—	—	38.08

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton corners (+3.5)	89.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Southampton corners (+2.5)	85.3%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Southampton corners (+1.5)	79.3%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
Swansea City corners (+3.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Swansea City corners (+2.5)	54.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Southampton corners (-1.5)	54.5%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Southampton corners (-2.5)	45.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Swansea City corners (+1.5)	45.5%	47.5%	—	—	2.10
Southampton corners (-3.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Swansea City corners (-1.5)	20.7%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Swansea City corners (-2.5)	14.7%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Swansea City corners (-3.5)	10.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	40.6%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
0-8 corners	33.7%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	25.6%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	74.7%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 12.5 corners	66.9%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 8.5 corners	66.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	59.4%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 9.5 corners	57.5%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	51.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	48.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	42.5%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	40.6%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 8.5 corners	33.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 12.5 corners	33.1%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 7.5 corners	25.3%	27.4%	—	—	3.66

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.4%	11.5%	14.4%	0.79×	8.73
1-0	9.8%	7.4%	11.1%	0.67×	13.48
2-0	9.8%	7.4%	6.2%	1.20×	13.48
2-1	9.8%	7.4%	11.4%	0.65×	13.48
0-0	7.6%	7.4%	7.3%	1.02×	13.48
1-2	5.5%	7.4%	7.9%	0.94×	13.48
3-0	5.8%	7.4%	4.0%	1.84×	13.48
3-1	5.8%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.48
0-1	4.9%	1.7%	7.7%	0.22×	58.46
2-2	4.9%	1.7%	5.2%	0.33×	58.46
0-2	3.1%	1.7%	5.3%	0.32×	58.47
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
0-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.4%	3.98×	58.49
1-3	1.8%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.48
1-4	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.84×	58.49
2-3	1.6%	1.7%	1.6%	1.05×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
3-2	2.9%	1.7%	1.8%	0.95×	58.47
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.3%	6.63×	58.49
4-0	2.6%	1.7%	1.7%	1.00×	58.47
4-1	2.6%	1.7%	0.9%	1.99×	58.48
4-2	1.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.21×	58.48
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.2%	9.95×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.1%	19.90×	58.49
Any other score	3.8%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton leading at HT (DNB)	69.9%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Swansea City leading at HT (DNB)	30.1%	25.7%	—	—	3.89

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1X)	80.2%	80.6%	71.0%	1.14×	1.24
Southampton or Swansea City (12)	74.1%	72.1%	72.4%	1.00×	1.39
Swansea City or draw (X2)	45.8%	48.5%	56.5%	0.86×	2.06

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw at HT	82.6%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Swansea City or draw at HT	59.5%	56.9%	—	—	1.76
Southampton or Swansea City at HT	58.0%	56.9%	—	—	1.76

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw (1UP)	80.2%	88.2%	—	—	1.13
Swansea City or draw (1UP)	45.8%	52.5%	—	—	1.90

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton or draw in 2nd half	79.1%	77.0%	—	—	1.30
Southampton or Swansea City in 2nd half	65.0%	65.4%	—	—	1.53
Swansea City or draw in 2nd half	55.8%	58.8%	—	—	1.70

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	60.8%	61.5%	—	—	1.63
Neither half drawn	39.2%	38.5%	—	—	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (DNB)	73.2%	71.4%	60.0%	1.19×	1.40
Swansea City (DNB)	26.8%	28.6%	40.0%	0.71×	3.50

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score first	59.1%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Swansea City to score first	33.3%	27.3%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	7.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	53.7%	51.4%	54.2%	0.95×	1.95
Not both teams to score	46.3%	48.6%	45.8%	1.06×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	41.4%	41.6%	39.9%	1.04×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	35.2%	38.5%	37.3%	1.03×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.4%	12.3%	14.4%	0.85×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	11.0%	12.3%	8.6%	1.44×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	86.0%	85.6%	89.0%	0.96×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.0%	14.4%	11.0%	1.31×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	70.9%	74.0%	—	—	1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half	29.1%	26.0%	—	—	3.85

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	58.1%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Both score 2nd half only	24.1%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	12.8%	10.8%	—	—	9.30
Both score in both halves	5.0%	6.7%	—	—	14.86

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	82.2%	82.4%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	17.8%	17.6%	—	—	5.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.6%	57.2%	—	—	1.75
A half without a goal	44.4%	42.8%	—	—	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	47.5%	47.4%	50.4%	0.94×	2.11
4-6 goals	27.9%	26.5%	22.4%	1.18×	3.78
0-1 goals	22.3%	22.8%	25.9%	0.88×	4.38
7+ goals	2.3%	1.8%	1.4%	1.33×	54.56

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City to score exactly 0	36.8%	36.0%	30.6%	1.18×	2.78
Swansea City to score exactly 1	36.8%	36.0%	39.4%	0.91×	2.78
Swansea City to score exactly 2	18.4%	19.6%	20.7%	0.95×	5.11
Swansea City to score 3+	8.0%	8.5%	9.5%	0.90×	11.82

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score exactly 1	30.1%	32.6%	36.9%	0.88×	3.06
Southampton to score exactly 2	26.7%	26.5%	24.6%	1.08×	3.77
Southampton to score 3+	26.2%	26.5%	16.2%	1.64×	3.77
Southampton to score exactly 0	17.0%	18.9%	22.5%	0.84×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	42.0%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Southampton leading at HT	40.5%	43.1%	—	—	2.32
Swansea City leading at HT	17.4%	15.5%	—	—	6.43

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton -1: 2	45.8%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Southampton -1: 1	31.3%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Southampton -1: X	23.0%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City (0:1)	45.8%	45.9%	56.5%	0.81×	2.18
Southampton (0:1)	31.3%	30.0%	19.3%	1.55×	3.33
Draw (0:1)	23.0%	24.3%	24.2%	1.00×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City (0:2)	68.7%	72.2%	80.7%	0.90×	1.39
Draw (0:2)	17.1%	15.3%	11.3%	1.35×	6.54
Southampton (0:2)	14.2%	11.0%	8.1%	1.36×	9.11

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City (0:3)	85.8%	90.8%	91.9%	0.99×	1.10
Draw (0:3)	8.9%	5.8%	4.8%	1.21×	17.13
Southampton (0:3)	5.3%	5.8%	3.4%	1.74×	17.19

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City (0:4)	94.7%	94.7%	96.6%	0.98×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	3.6%	1.2%	2.4%	0.50×	83.25
Southampton (0:4)	1.7%	1.2%	1.0%	1.16×	83.49

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (1:0)	80.2%	81.4%	71.0%	1.15×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	12.4%	12.8%	17.3%	0.74×	7.81
Swansea City (1:0)	7.5%	6.9%	11.9%	0.58×	14.44

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton (2:0)	92.5%	93.9%	88.1%	1.07×	1.07
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	8.7%	0.74×	15.51
Swansea City (2:0)	2.0%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.24

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	46.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	26.7%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to concede	63.2%	63.4%	69.4%	0.91×	1.58
Southampton clean sheet	36.8%	36.6%	30.6%	1.20×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton clean sheet in 1st half	67.1%	68.6%	—	—	1.46
Southampton to concede in 1st half	32.9%	31.4%	—	—	3.18

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton over 2.5 corners	87.3%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Southampton over 3.5 corners	77.6%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Southampton over 4.5 corners	66.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Southampton under 6.5 corners	55.5%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Southampton over 5.5 corners	55.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Southampton under 5.5 corners	44.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Southampton over 6.5 corners	44.5%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Southampton under 4.5 corners	33.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Southampton under 3.5 corners	22.4%	23.4%	—	—	4.27
Southampton under 2.5 corners	12.7%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 3.5 goals	89.6%	87.3%	94.8%	0.92×	1.15
Southampton over 0.5 goals	83.0%	82.1%	77.5%	1.06×	1.22
Southampton under 2.5 goals	73.8%	74.2%	83.8%	0.88×	1.35
Southampton over 1.5 goals	52.9%	53.3%	40.6%	1.31×	1.88
Southampton under 1.5 goals	47.1%	46.8%	59.4%	0.79×	2.14
Southampton over 2.5 goals	26.2%	25.8%	16.2%	1.60×	3.87
Southampton under 0.5 goals	17.0%	17.9%	22.5%	0.79×	5.59
Southampton over 3.5 goals	10.4%	12.7%	5.2%	2.47×	7.86

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton under 1.5 in 1st half	82.2%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Southampton under 0.5 in 1st half	46.7%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Southampton over 0.5 in 1st half	53.3%	49.2%	—	—	2.03
Southampton over 1.5 in 1st half	17.8%	15.8%	—	—	6.34

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.7%	56.7%	48.7%	1.16×	1.76
Swansea City (home no bet)	43.3%	43.3%	51.3%	0.84×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton even goals	51.4%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Southampton odd goals	48.6%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	31.5%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
HT 1-0	23.6%	24.1%	—	—	4.15
HT 0-1	12.3%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 1-1	9.8%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
HT 2-0	9.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.02
Any other HT score	5.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.25
HT 2-1	3.6%	2.3%	—	—	43.34
HT 0-2	2.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.43
HT 1-2	1.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.47
HT 2-2	0.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.56

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton at HT / Southampton at FT	33.7%	33.0%	—	—	3.03
Draw at HT / Southampton at FT	17.8%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	16.1%	16.7%	—	—	5.97
Swansea City at HT / Swansea City at FT	10.2%	12.7%	—	—	7.91
Draw at HT / Swansea City at FT	8.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Southampton at HT / Draw at FT	5.2%	6.0%	—	—	16.73
Swansea City at HT / Draw at FT	4.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Swansea City at HT / Southampton at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Southampton at HT / Swansea City at FT	1.6%	3.5%	—	—	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to score last	59.3%	56.6%	—	—	1.77
Swansea City to score last	33.1%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	7.6%	7.5%	—	—	13.30

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	92.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Southampton to lead by 1 at any time	68.1%	69.5%	—	—	1.44
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	49.4%	44.1%	—	—	2.27
Swansea City to lead by 1 at any time	38.1%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Southampton to lead by 2 at any time	37.7%	34.9%	—	—	2.87
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	19.7%	15.0%	—	—	6.69
Southampton to lead by 3 at any time	16.7%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Swansea City to lead by 2 at any time	12.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Swansea City to lead by 3 at any time	3.0%	1.6%	—	—	61.35

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton most corners	63.6%	60.5%	—	—	1.65
Swansea City most corners	28.0%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Corners level	8.4%	8.5%	—	—	11.81

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	86.2%	87.4%	88.8%	0.98×	1.14
1-4 goals	77.7%	78.6%	83.4%	0.94×	1.27
2-6 goals	75.4%	78.6%	72.8%	1.08×	1.27
2-5 goals	71.5%	72.4%	70.2%	1.03×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.9%	63.4%	64.8%	0.98×	1.58
1-3 goals	62.3%	63.4%	69.1%	0.92×	1.58
3-6 goals	50.1%	53.2%	47.1%	1.13×	1.88
2-3 goals	47.5%	48.7%	50.4%	0.96×	2.06
3-5 goals	46.1%	48.7%	44.5%	1.09×	2.06
1-2 goals	40.1%	43.6%	44.4%	0.98×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.6%	39.1%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.9%	30.2%	22.4%	1.35×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.9%	24.5%	19.8%	1.23×	4.08
5-6 goals	12.5%	14.9%	8.1%	1.84×	6.72
7+ goals	2.3%	2.5%	1.4%	1.85×	39.23

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton never behind	54.3%	62.1%	—	—	1.61
Swansea City never behind	24.3%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.2%	50.8%	49.4%	1.03×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.8%	49.2%	50.6%	0.97×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	55.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	44.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.9%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.1%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.7%	92.3%	96.0%	0.96×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	92.7%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.2%	87.6%	90.6%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	77.7%	77.3%	74.1%	1.04×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	69.8%	66.2%	76.3%	0.87×	1.51
Over 2.5 goals	52.4%	52.5%	48.4%	1.09×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	47.6%	47.5%	51.6%	0.92×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	30.2%	33.8%	23.7%	1.42×	2.96
Under 1.5 goals	22.3%	22.7%	25.9%	0.87×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.8%	12.4%	9.4%	1.32×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	7.3%	1.06×	12.92
Over 5.5 goals	6.3%	7.7%	4.0%	1.96×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.6%	97.2%	98.6%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.2%	92.5%	95.8%	0.96×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.5%	81.1%	89.1%	0.91×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	70.2%	72.5%	65.1%	1.11×	1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.2%	62.1%	68.5%	0.91×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.8%	37.9%	31.5%	1.21×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	29.8%	27.5%	34.9%	0.79×	3.64
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.5%	18.9%	10.9%	1.73×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.8%	7.5%	4.2%	1.80×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.4%	2.8%	1.4%	1.96×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	88.8%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	68.5%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half	67.4%	69.0%	—	—	1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half	32.6%	31.0%	—	—	3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half	31.5%	31.0%	—	—	3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half	11.2%	11.0%	—	—	9.11

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	79.6%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	78.1%	79.8%	—	—	1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	51.7%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	48.3%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	21.9%	20.2%	—	—	4.94
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	20.4%	20.2%	—	—	4.95

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City not to score in both halves	85.1%	85.6%	—	—	1.17
Southampton not to score in both halves	66.1%	70.4%	—	—	1.42
Southampton to score in both halves	33.9%	29.6%	—	—	3.38
Swansea City to score in both halves	14.9%	14.4%	—	—	6.95

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	53.7%	54.0%	54.2%	1.00×	1.85
Only Southampton scores	29.3%	26.1%	23.4%	1.12×	3.83
Only Swansea City scores	9.4%	7.2%	15.3%	0.47×	13.89
Neither team scores	7.6%	7.2%	7.3%	0.98×	13.91

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	25.3%	25.0%	25.8%	0.97×	4.01
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	24.7%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	15.4%	17.4%	14.4%	1.21×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	14.7%	12.1%	18.7%	0.65×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	8.5%	7.6%	5.5%	1.39×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	7.6%	7.6%	7.3%	1.05×	13.08
6 or more goals	6.3%	7.6%	4.0%	1.93×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	48.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
1 goal in 2nd half	31.3%	33.4%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	20.4%	23.0%	—	—	4.35

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City not to win both halves	96.2%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Southampton not to win both halves	81.8%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Southampton to win both halves	18.2%	15.8%	—	—	6.31
Swansea City to win both halves	3.8%	2.8%	—	—	35.66

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Southampton to win either half	66.5%	67.8%	—	—	1.47
Swansea City to win neither half	65.4%	67.8%	—	—	1.48
Swansea City to win either half	34.6%	32.2%	—	—	3.10
Southampton to win neither half	33.5%	32.2%	—	—	3.11

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Swansea City not to win to nil	90.6%	92.0%	84.7%	1.09×	1.09
Southampton not to win to nil	70.7%	75.3%	76.6%	0.98×	1.33
Southampton to win to nil	29.3%	24.7%	23.4%	1.06×	4.05
Swansea City to win to nil	9.4%	8.0%	15.3%	0.52×	12.53

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.9%	27.8%	27.6%	1.01×	3.59
Southampton by 1	23.0%	24.1%	24.2%	1.00×	4.14
Southampton by 2	17.1%	16.9%	11.3%	1.49×	5.91
Southampton by 3+	14.2%	11.8%	8.1%	1.46×	8.47
Swansea City by 1	12.4%	11.8%	17.3%	0.68×	8.48
Swansea City by 2	5.4%	7.3%	8.7%	0.84×	13.79
Swansea City by 3+	2.0%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.02