Spain v Nigeria — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 7 September 2026 · FIFA:108 · 2627
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyRaw model output; no calibration record for this fixture's bands yet.
Top 5 scorelines
- 1-1 12.5%
- 0-1 10.3%
- 1-0 8.9%
- 1-2 8.7%
- 2-1 7.5%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 48.2% | Under 2.5 | 51.8% |
| BTTS yes | 52.7% | BTTS no | 47.3% |
| Spain 1+ | 70.1% | Spain 2+ | 34.0% |
| Nigeria 1+ | 75.2% | Nigeria 2+ | 40.6% |
Expected goals 1.21 – 1.40. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Nigeria carry the stronger rating, 1590 Elo against 1500.
- Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five.
- They have had 30 days' rest to Spain's 14.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 0/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
- Spain have only 0 matches on record.
- Nigeria have only 7 matches on record.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Nigeria have an estimated 41.2% win probability, against 32.5% for Spain and 26.2% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.21 for Spain and 1.40 for Nigeria.
Why Spain
At home Spain average 1.35 xG a match.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 26.2%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.21 to 1.40.
Why Nigeria can win
Nigeria carry the stronger rating, 1590 Elo against 1500. Form is good: 2.20 points a match from the last five. They have had 30 days' rest to Spain's 14.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Spain, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Nigeria, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Spain: 50% possession, 12.0 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Nigeria: 58% possession, 10.8 shots a match, 7.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Nigeria are the model's most likely outcome at 41.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.5%. Confidence 0/100, data quality 0/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 1.21–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.