Sparta Rotterdam v Willem II — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 17 October 2026 · NED-Eredivisie · 2627

Eredivisie results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

Sparta Rotterdam

15:00

Willem II

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 1,005h before kick-off

Sparta Rotterdam win

58.4%

model 58.1%

Draw

22.9%

model 23.8%

Willem II win

18.7%

model 18.1%

582319

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (2,277 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.2%
2-1 10.0%
2-0 9.6%
1-0 8.6%
3-1 6.6%

Goals

Over 2.5	57.9%	Under 2.5	42.1%
BTTS yes	56.7%	BTTS no	43.3%
Sparta Rotterdam 1+	86.1%	Sparta Rotterdam 2+	58.7%
Willem II 1+	64.4%	Willem II 2+	27.7%

Expected goals 1.98 – 1.03. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

78/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out Sparta Rotterdam.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Sparta Rotterdam have an estimated 58.4% win probability, against 22.9% for the draw and 18.7% for Willem II. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.98 for Sparta Rotterdam and 1.03 for Willem II.

Why Sparta Rotterdam

Nothing in the data singles out Sparta Rotterdam.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 22.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Willem II can win

Willem II carry the stronger rating, 1513 Elo against 1469.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sparta Rotterdam, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Willem II, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sparta Rotterdam: 49% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 15.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Willem II: 39% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 16.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sparta Rotterdam are the model's most likely outcome at 58.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.2%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	622316	2.05–0.95	1-1 11%	58%	54%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win	61.7%	58.1%	44.6%	1.30×	1.72
Draw	22.8%	24.5%	25.3%	0.97×	4.09
Willem II to win	15.5%	19.3%	30.3%	0.64×	5.18

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam & not both score	32.6%	29.7%	23.4%	1.27×	3.37
Sparta Rotterdam & both teams score	29.1%	25.2%	21.3%	1.18×	3.97
Draw & both teams score	16.7%	17.9%	21.9%	0.82×	5.58
Willem II & both teams score	8.7%	8.4%	17.3%	0.48×	11.93
Willem II & not both score	6.8%	8.4%	13.2%	0.64×	11.93
Draw & not both score	6.1%	8.4%	3.5%	2.38×	11.94

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam & over 1.5	52.6%	48.7%	36.4%	1.34×	2.05
Sparta Rotterdam & over 2.5	42.1%	40.3%	29.1%	1.39×	2.48
Sparta Rotterdam & under 3.5	36.7%	34.9%	27.6%	1.27×	2.87
Sparta Rotterdam & over 3.5	25.0%	26.0%	17.2%	1.52×	3.84
Sparta Rotterdam & under 2.5	19.6%	18.0%	15.6%	1.15×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	16.7%	18.0%	21.9%	0.82×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	16.9%	18.0%	15.0%	1.20×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	16.9%	18.0%	15.0%	1.20×	5.56
Willem II & over 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	26.3%	0.49×	7.77
Willem II & under 3.5	11.2%	12.9%	20.1%	0.64×	7.77
Sparta Rotterdam & under 1.5	9.1%	7.9%	8.3%	0.95×	12.69
Willem II & over 2.5	9.6%	7.9%	20.5%	0.38×	12.69
Draw & under 1.5	6.1%	7.9%	3.5%	2.24×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.4%	0.76×	12.70
Willem II & under 2.5	5.9%	7.9%	10.0%	0.79×	12.70
Willem II & over 3.5	4.3%	4.8%	10.4%	0.46×	20.93
Willem II & under 1.5	3.6%	4.8%	4.1%	1.16×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (1UP)	74.2%	76.0%	—	—	1.32
Willem II (1UP)	34.0%	33.0%	—	—	3.03

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (2UP)	61.7%	67.6%	—	—	1.48
Willem II (2UP)	15.5%	17.2%	—	—	5.81

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win 2nd half	50.2%	51.8%	—	—	1.93
2nd half drawn	32.2%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Willem II to win 2nd half	17.6%	19.0%	—	—	5.26

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (+0.5)	84.5%	82.4%	69.7%	1.18×	1.21
Willem II (+2.5)	80.3%	82.4%	86.7%	0.95×	1.21
Sparta Rotterdam (-0.5)	61.7%	62.9%	44.6%	1.41×	1.59
Willem II (+1.5)	61.1%	62.9%	74.6%	0.84×	1.59
Sparta Rotterdam (-1.5)	38.9%	37.1%	25.4%	1.46×	2.70
Willem II (+0.5)	38.3%	37.1%	55.4%	0.67×	2.70
Sparta Rotterdam (-2.5)	19.7%	17.6%	13.3%	1.32×	5.68
Willem II (-0.5)	15.5%	17.6%	30.3%	0.58×	5.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II to concede	87.1%	86.4%	83.5%	1.04×	1.16
Willem II clean sheet	12.9%	13.6%	16.5%	0.82×	7.38

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II to concede in 1st half	58.6%	58.5%	—	—	1.71
Willem II clean sheet in 1st half	41.4%	41.5%	—	—	2.41

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II over 2.5 corners	84.7%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Willem II over 3.5 corners	72.0%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Willem II under 6.5 corners	68.8%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Willem II over 4.5 corners	57.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Willem II under 5.5 corners	56.5%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Willem II over 5.5 corners	43.5%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Willem II under 4.5 corners	42.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Willem II over 6.5 corners	31.2%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Willem II under 3.5 corners	28.0%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Willem II under 2.5 corners	15.3%	18.5%	—	—	5.40

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II under 3.5 goals	98.4%	97.5%	94.3%	1.03×	1.03
Willem II under 2.5 goals	92.9%	92.3%	85.0%	1.09×	1.08
Willem II under 1.5 goals	75.5%	76.2%	58.2%	1.31×	1.31
Willem II over 0.5 goals	61.2%	62.9%	73.2%	0.86×	1.59
Willem II under 0.5 goals	38.8%	37.1%	26.8%	1.38×	2.70
Willem II over 1.5 goals	24.5%	23.8%	41.8%	0.57×	4.21
Willem II over 2.5 goals	7.1%	7.7%	15.0%	0.51×	13.04
Willem II over 3.5 goals	1.6%	2.5%	5.7%	0.43×	40.80

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II under 1.5 in 1st half	94.4%	94.3%	—	—	1.06
Willem II under 0.5 in 1st half	68.4%	68.4%	—	—	1.46
Willem II over 0.5 in 1st half	31.6%	31.6%	—	—	3.17
Willem II over 1.5 in 1st half	5.6%	5.8%	—	—	17.39

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (away no bet)	73.0%	68.6%	63.8%	1.07×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	27.0%	31.4%	36.2%	0.87×	3.18

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II even goals	57.5%	56.9%	57.4%	0.99×	1.76
Willem II odd goals	42.5%	43.1%	42.6%	1.01×	2.32

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	81.4%	82.9%	—	—	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	18.6%	17.1%	—	—	5.84

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	69.7%	68.8%	—	—	1.45
Both halves under 1.5 goals	30.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.21

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	63.3%	59.9%	—	—	1.67
Sparta Rotterdam to score 2+ in a row	53.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
Either team to score 3+ in a row	28.0%	25.1%	—	—	3.99
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+ in a row	25.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Willem II to score 2+ in a row	16.2%	16.3%	—	—	6.13
Willem II to score 3+ in a row	3.3%	2.6%	—	—	38.57

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II corners (+3.5)	81.2%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+3.5)	81.3%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+2.5)	73.9%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Willem II corners (+2.5)	73.7%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sparta Rotterdam corners (+1.5)	65.1%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Willem II corners (+1.5)	64.9%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-1.5)	35.1%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Willem II corners (-1.5)	34.9%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-2.5)	26.3%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Willem II corners (-2.5)	26.1%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sparta Rotterdam corners (-3.5)	18.8%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Willem II corners (-3.5)	18.7%	20.3%	—	—	4.93

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
12+ corners	39.8%	33.7%	—	—	2.96
0-8 corners	30.9%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
9-11 corners	29.3%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 7.5 corners	78.1%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Over 8.5 corners	69.1%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 12.5 corners	68.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 11.5 corners	60.2%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 9.5 corners	59.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 10.5 corners	50.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 10.5 corners	49.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 9.5 corners	40.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 11.5 corners	39.8%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 8.5 corners	30.9%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 12.5 corners	31.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Under 7.5 corners	21.9%	23.5%	—	—	4.26

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.8%	11.5%	11.6%	0.98×	8.73
2-0	10.5%	11.5%	7.5%	1.53×	8.73
1-0	9.1%	7.4%	8.3%	0.90×	13.48
2-1	9.9%	7.4%	8.0%	0.93×	13.48
3-0	7.2%	7.4%	4.3%	1.73×	13.48
3-1	6.8%	7.4%	3.7%	2.02×	13.48
0-0	6.1%	7.4%	3.5%	2.11×	13.48
Any other score	6.0%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-2	4.7%	1.7%	8.6%	0.20×	58.46
0-1	3.6%	1.7%	4.1%	0.41×	58.47
0-2	2.2%	1.7%	6.0%	0.29×	58.48
0-3	0.7%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.49
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.9%	1.86×	58.49
1-2	4.6%	1.7%	8.1%	0.21×	58.46
1-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.66×	58.48
1-4	0.3%	1.7%	2.1%	0.80×	58.49
2-3	1.5%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.48
2-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.72×	58.49
3-2	3.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.59×	58.47
3-3	1.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.86×	58.48
3-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.49
4-0	3.7%	1.7%	1.8%	0.93×	58.47
4-1	3.5%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.47
4-2	1.6%	1.7%	1.2%	1.40×	58.48
4-3	0.5%	1.7%	0.6%	2.79×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.2%	11.16×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT (DNB)	75.3%	77.5%	—	—	1.29
Willem II leading at HT (DNB)	24.7%	22.5%	—	—	4.45

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1X)	84.5%	80.7%	69.7%	1.16×	1.24
Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II (12)	77.2%	75.5%	74.7%	1.01×	1.32
Willem II or draw (X2)	38.3%	41.9%	55.4%	0.76×	2.39

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw at HT	85.0%	84.6%	—	—	1.18
Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II at HT	61.0%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Willem II or draw at HT	54.1%	47.7%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw (1UP)	84.5%	88.7%	—	—	1.13
Willem II or draw (1UP)	38.3%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam or draw in 2nd half	82.4%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sparta Rotterdam or Willem II in 2nd half	67.8%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Willem II or draw in 2nd half	49.8%	48.2%	—	—	2.08

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.6%	42.0%	—	—	2.38

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (DNB)	79.9%	74.7%	59.5%	1.26×	1.34
Willem II (DNB)	20.1%	25.3%	40.5%	0.62×	3.96

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score first	64.2%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Willem II to score first	29.7%	28.5%	—	—	3.51
No goal scored	6.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	54.5%	51.4%	60.2%	0.85×	1.94
Not both teams to score	45.5%	48.6%	39.8%	1.22×	2.06

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.7%	41.6%	48.7%	0.85×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	31.6%	34.3%	28.8%	1.19×	2.92
Not both score & over 2.5	14.0%	12.3%	11.2%	1.10×	8.10
Both score & under 2.5	10.8%	12.3%	11.6%	1.06×	8.11

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	85.1%	85.6%	80.6%	1.06×	1.17
Both teams to score 2+	14.9%	14.4%	19.4%	0.74×	6.94

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	69.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half	30.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.6%	59.3%	—	—	1.69
Both score 2nd half only	24.7%	20.9%	—	—	4.79
Both score 1st half only	13.2%	10.8%	—	—	9.29
Both score in both halves	5.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.83

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	81.3%	82.3%	—	—	1.21
Both teams to score by HT	18.7%	17.7%	—	—	5.66

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	59.6%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A half without a goal	40.4%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.0%	47.4%	46.9%	1.01×	2.11
4-6 goals	31.9%	30.7%	33.7%	0.91×	3.25
0-1 goals	18.8%	20.2%	15.6%	1.29×	4.95
7+ goals	3.3%	1.8%	4.1%	0.44×	54.46

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II to score exactly 0	38.8%	36.0%	26.8%	1.34×	2.78
Willem II to score exactly 1	36.7%	36.0%	31.5%	1.14×	2.78
Willem II to score exactly 2	17.4%	19.6%	27.0%	0.73×	5.11
Willem II to score 3+	7.1%	8.5%	15.0%	0.56×	11.83

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score 3+	33.6%	32.7%	23.7%	1.38×	3.06
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 2	27.1%	26.5%	27.0%	0.98×	3.77
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 1	26.4%	26.5%	33.1%	0.80×	3.77
Sparta Rotterdam to score exactly 0	12.9%	14.3%	16.5%	0.87×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam leading at HT	45.9%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	39.0%	38.0%	—	—	2.64
Willem II leading at HT	15.0%	15.4%	—	—	6.49

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam -1: 1	38.9%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Sparta Rotterdam -1: 2	38.3%	37.3%	—	—	2.68
Sparta Rotterdam -1: X	22.9%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (0:1)	38.9%	37.3%	25.4%	1.47×	2.68
Willem II (0:1)	38.3%	37.3%	55.4%	0.67×	2.68
Draw (0:1)	22.9%	24.3%	19.3%	1.26×	4.12

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II (0:2)	61.1%	67.2%	74.6%	0.90×	1.49
Sparta Rotterdam (0:2)	19.7%	15.3%	13.3%	1.15×	6.54
Draw (0:2)	19.2%	15.3%	12.3%	1.25×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II (0:3)	80.3%	85.0%	86.7%	0.98×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	11.4%	10.0%	7.8%	1.28×	10.01
Sparta Rotterdam (0:3)	8.3%	5.8%	5.7%	1.03×	17.14

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II (0:4)	91.7%	94.6%	94.3%	1.00×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.3%	4.6%	2.6%	1.77×	21.66
Sparta Rotterdam (0:4)	3.0%	1.2%	3.2%	0.37×	83.33

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (1:0)	84.5%	81.5%	69.7%	1.17×	1.23
Draw (1:0)	10.0%	6.9%	14.9%	0.47×	14.40
Willem II (1:0)	5.5%	6.9%	15.6%	0.44×	14.47

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam (2:0)	94.5%	94.0%	84.4%	1.11×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	4.1%	2.3%	8.9%	0.26×	44.11
Willem II (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	6.9%	0.33×	44.28

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	47.7%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	25.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to concede	61.2%	63.4%	73.2%	0.87×	1.58
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet	38.8%	36.6%	26.8%	1.37×	2.73

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam clean sheet in 1st half	68.4%	68.7%	—	—	1.46
Sparta Rotterdam to concede in 1st half	31.6%	31.3%	—	—	3.19

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 corners	84.8%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 corners	72.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Sparta Rotterdam under 6.5 corners	68.6%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Sparta Rotterdam over 4.5 corners	57.8%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Sparta Rotterdam under 5.5 corners	56.3%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Sparta Rotterdam over 5.5 corners	43.7%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Sparta Rotterdam under 4.5 corners	42.2%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
Sparta Rotterdam over 6.5 corners	31.4%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 corners	27.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 corners	15.2%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 goals	87.1%	87.3%	83.5%	1.05×	1.15
Sparta Rotterdam under 3.5 goals	84.8%	82.1%	89.1%	0.92×	1.22
Sparta Rotterdam under 2.5 goals	66.4%	67.9%	76.3%	0.89×	1.47
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 goals	60.7%	63.5%	50.5%	1.26×	1.58
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 goals	39.3%	36.5%	49.5%	0.74×	2.74
Sparta Rotterdam over 2.5 goals	33.6%	32.1%	23.7%	1.35×	3.11
Sparta Rotterdam over 3.5 goals	15.2%	17.9%	10.9%	1.64×	5.60
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 goals	12.9%	12.7%	16.5%	0.77×	7.85

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam under 1.5 in 1st half	77.9%	77.2%	—	—	1.30
Sparta Rotterdam over 0.5 in 1st half	58.6%	58.2%	—	—	1.72
Sparta Rotterdam under 0.5 in 1st half	41.4%	41.8%	—	—	2.39
Sparta Rotterdam over 1.5 in 1st half	22.1%	22.8%	—	—	4.39

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	59.5%	56.7%	45.5%	1.25×	1.76
Willem II (home no bet)	40.5%	43.3%	54.5%	0.79×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam even goals	50.8%	50.6%	51.1%	0.99×	1.98
Sparta Rotterdam odd goals	49.2%	49.4%	48.9%	1.01×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	28.6%	28.9%	—	—	3.46
HT 1-0	24.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.14
HT 2-0	11.0%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-1	10.6%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 1-1	9.7%	7.1%	—	—	14.01
Any other HT score	6.6%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	—	—	43.30
HT 0-2	2.0%	2.3%	—	—	43.46
HT 1-2	1.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.48
HT 2-2	0.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.55

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	39.8%	41.2%	—	—	2.43
Draw at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	18.9%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	13.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.88
Willem II at HT / Willem II at FT	7.9%	6.0%	—	—	16.65
Draw at HT / Willem II at FT	6.3%	6.0%	—	—	16.70
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Draw at FT	4.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.78
Willem II at HT / Draw at FT	4.2%	3.5%	—	—	28.80
Willem II at HT / Sparta Rotterdam at FT	3.0%	3.5%	—	—	28.85
Sparta Rotterdam at HT / Willem II at FT	1.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.91

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to score last	64.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Willem II to score last	29.5%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
No goal scored	6.1%	7.5%	—	—	13.39

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.9%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 1 at any time	74.2%	74.4%	—	—	1.34
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	55.0%	50.8%	—	—	1.97
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 2 at any time	45.5%	44.0%	—	—	2.28
Willem II to lead by 1 at any time	34.0%	29.5%	—	—	3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	24.9%	19.7%	—	—	5.09
Sparta Rotterdam to lead by 3 at any time	22.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.10
Willem II to lead by 2 at any time	9.7%	6.7%	—	—	14.95
Willem II to lead by 3 at any time	2.3%	1.6%	—	—	62.07

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam most corners	45.0%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Willem II most corners	44.8%	43.5%	—	—	2.30
Corners level	10.2%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	85.6%	87.4%	87.6%	1.00×	1.14
2-6 goals	77.8%	78.6%	80.4%	0.98×	1.27
1-4 goals	75.5%	78.6%	75.8%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.8%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	62.7%	63.4%	63.7%	1.00×	1.58
1-3 goals	58.7%	59.2%	59.0%	1.00×	1.69
3-6 goals	54.3%	53.2%	55.7%	0.95×	1.88
3-5 goals	49.3%	48.7%	50.8%	0.96×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.0%	48.7%	46.9%	1.04×	2.06
3-4 goals	39.2%	39.2%	39.1%	1.00×	2.55
1-2 goals	36.3%	39.1%	36.9%	1.06×	2.56
4-6 goals	31.9%	35.4%	33.7%	1.05×	2.83
4-5 goals	26.9%	30.2%	28.8%	1.05×	3.31
5-6 goals	15.1%	18.6%	16.8%	1.11×	5.37
7+ goals	3.3%	2.6%	4.1%	0.62×	39.18

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam never behind	59.8%	63.0%	—	—	1.59
Willem II never behind	19.7%	18.9%	—	—	5.28

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	54.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.93
Odd goals in 1st half	45.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	52.3%	52.1%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	47.7%	47.9%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	96.5%	0.96×	1.08
Under 5.5 goals	91.7%	92.3%	91.0%	1.01×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	81.6%	82.4%	79.2%	1.04×	1.21
Over 1.5 goals	81.2%	82.4%	84.4%	0.98×	1.21
Under 3.5 goals	64.8%	61.8%	62.3%	0.99×	1.62
Over 2.5 goals	57.6%	58.8%	59.7%	0.99×	1.70
Under 2.5 goals	42.4%	41.2%	40.3%	1.02×	2.43
Over 3.5 goals	35.2%	38.2%	37.7%	1.01×	2.62
Under 1.5 goals	18.8%	17.6%	15.6%	1.13×	5.67
Over 4.5 goals	18.4%	17.6%	20.8%	0.85×	5.67
Over 5.5 goals	8.3%	7.7%	9.0%	0.86×	12.92
Under 0.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	3.5%	2.20×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	96.5%	97.2%	95.7%	1.02×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	90.7%	92.5%	89.8%	1.03×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	77.9%	75.9%	75.0%	1.01×	1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	75.3%	75.9%	79.3%	0.96×	1.32
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	54.6%	51.8%	51.7%	1.00×	1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	45.4%	48.2%	48.3%	1.00×	2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	24.7%	24.1%	20.7%	1.16×	4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	22.1%	24.1%	25.0%	0.96×	4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	9.3%	7.6%	10.2%	0.74×	13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	3.5%	2.8%	4.3%	0.64×	36.12

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	86.6%	88.9%	—	—	1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half	71.4%	71.2%	—	—	1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half	63.9%	63.7%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	36.1%	36.3%	—	—	2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half	28.6%	28.8%	—	—	3.47
Over 2.5 in 1st half	13.4%	11.1%	—	—	9.05

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	82.0%	82.8%	—	—	1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	74.8%	77.8%	—	—	1.29
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	52.2%	53.2%	—	—	1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	47.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	25.2%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	18.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II not to score in both halves	86.3%	85.7%	—	—	1.17
Sparta Rotterdam not to score in both halves	59.7%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Sparta Rotterdam to score in both halves	40.3%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Willem II to score in both halves	13.7%	14.3%	—	—	7.00

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	54.5%	54.0%	60.2%	0.90×	1.85
Only Sparta Rotterdam scores	32.6%	33.3%	23.4%	1.42×	3.00
Only Willem II scores	6.8%	7.2%	13.2%	0.55×	13.91
Neither team scores	6.1%	7.2%	3.5%	2.04×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	23.5%	22.6%	24.8%	0.91×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.4%	22.6%	22.2%	1.02×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	16.8%	17.4%	17.0%	1.03×	5.74
Exactly 1 goals	12.7%	12.1%	12.3%	0.99×	8.27
Exactly 5 goals	10.1%	12.1%	11.9%	1.01×	8.28
6 or more goals	8.3%	7.6%	9.0%	0.85×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	6.1%	7.6%	3.5%	2.17×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	52.2%	51.4%	—	—	1.95
1 goal in 2nd half	29.8%	29.9%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	18.0%	17.2%	—	—	5.82

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II not to win both halves	97.3%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Sparta Rotterdam not to win both halves	76.7%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Sparta Rotterdam to win both halves	23.3%	24.8%	—	—	4.03
Willem II to win both halves	2.7%	2.8%	—	—	36.10

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam to win either half	72.8%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Willem II to win neither half	70.1%	72.8%	—	—	1.37
Willem II to win either half	29.9%	27.2%	—	—	3.67
Sparta Rotterdam to win neither half	27.2%	27.0%	—	—	3.70

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Willem II not to win to nil	93.2%	92.1%	86.8%	1.06×	1.09
Sparta Rotterdam not to win to nil	67.4%	69.7%	76.6%	0.91×	1.44
Sparta Rotterdam to win to nil	32.6%	30.3%	23.4%	1.29×	3.30
Willem II to win to nil	6.8%	7.9%	13.2%	0.60×	12.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sparta Rotterdam by 1	22.9%	24.1%	19.3%	1.25×	4.14
Draw	22.8%	24.1%	25.3%	0.96×	4.14
Sparta Rotterdam by 3+	19.7%	16.9%	13.3%	1.27×	5.91
Sparta Rotterdam by 2	19.2%	16.9%	12.3%	1.38×	5.91
Willem II by 1	10.0%	7.3%	14.9%	0.49×	13.77
Willem II by 2	4.1%	2.7%	8.9%	0.30×	36.95
Willem II by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	6.9%	0.39×	37.04