Spartak Moscow v Fakel Voronezh — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Wednesday 16 September 2026 · RUS-Premier League · 2627

RUS-Premier League results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Spartak Moscow

11:30

Fakel Voronezh

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 224h before kick-off

Spartak Moscow win

73.1%

model 70.4%

Draw

20.3%

model 21.4%

Fakel Voronezh win

6.6%

model 8.2%

73207

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (75 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

2-0 16.1%
1-0 15.8%
3-0 10.4%
1-1 9.5%
0-0 9.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	44.4%	Under 2.5	55.6%
BTTS yes	35.5%	BTTS no	64.5%
Spartak Moscow 1+	85.5%	Spartak Moscow 2+	57.5%
Fakel Voronezh 1+	40.5%	Fakel Voronezh 2+	9.6%

Expected goals 1.93 – 0.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

79/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

Only Spartak Moscow scores

Teams to score · usually 26%

55.7% fair odds 1.80

strong signal · 691 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

1-4 goals

Multi goal · usually 80%

82.4% fair odds 1.21

moderate signal · 1382 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1336.
Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Spartak Moscow have an estimated 73.1% win probability, against 20.3% for the draw and 6.6% for Fakel Voronezh. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.93 for Spartak Moscow and 0.52 for Fakel Voronezh.

Why Spartak Moscow

Spartak Moscow carry the stronger rating, 1658 Elo against 1336. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 20.3%. Draws run at 28% in this competition.

Why Fakel Voronezh can win

Nothing in the data singles out Fakel Voronezh.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Spartak Moscow, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Fakel Voronezh, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Spartak Moscow: 63% possession, 13.4 shots a match, 10.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Fakel Voronezh: 46% possession, 11.2 shots a match, 12.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Spartak Moscow are the model's most likely outcome at 73.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-0 at 16.1%. Confidence 79/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	70218	1.93–0.52	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	70237	1.72–0.38	1-0 20%	35%	27%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to win	69.9%	65.2%	44.2%	1.48×	1.53
Draw	23.3%	24.5%	27.8%	0.88×	4.09
Fakel Voronezh to win	6.8%	8.2%	28.2%	0.29×	12.26

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow & not both score	55.3%	50.1%	25.6%	1.96×	2.00
Spartak Moscow & both teams score	14.6%	13.3%	18.8%	0.70×	7.54
Draw & not both score	13.1%	13.3%	7.4%	1.80×	7.54
Draw & both teams score	10.2%	13.3%	20.7%	0.64×	7.55
Fakel Voronezh & not both score	4.9%	4.9%	14.9%	0.33×	20.54
Fakel Voronezh & both teams score	1.9%	4.8%	13.5%	0.36×	20.63

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow & under 3.5	55.6%	54.9%	30.9%	1.78×	1.82
Spartak Moscow & over 1.5	49.6%	45.2%	33.5%	1.35×	2.21
Spartak Moscow & under 2.5	38.4%	34.9%	18.4%	1.90×	2.87
Spartak Moscow & over 2.5	31.5%	30.9%	26.0%	1.19×	3.24
Draw & under 2.5	21.9%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Draw & under 3.5	21.9%	21.7%	22.1%	0.98×	4.62
Spartak Moscow & under 1.5	20.3%	21.7%	10.8%	2.00×	4.62
Spartak Moscow & over 3.5	14.2%	12.9%	13.5%	0.95×	7.77
Draw & under 1.5	13.1%	12.9%	7.4%	1.75×	7.77
Draw & over 1.5	10.2%	12.9%	20.7%	0.62×	7.77
Fakel Voronezh & under 3.5	6.4%	7.9%	20.7%	0.38×	12.70
Fakel Voronezh & under 2.5	4.8%	4.8%	11.9%	0.40×	20.93
Fakel Voronezh & under 1.5	3.9%	4.8%	7.8%	0.61×	20.94
Fakel Voronezh & over 1.5	2.9%	4.8%	20.7%	0.23×	20.94
Fakel Voronezh & over 2.5	2.1%	4.8%	16.6%	0.29×	20.95
Draw & over 2.5	1.4%	4.8%	5.9%	0.80×	20.95
Draw & over 3.5	1.4%	4.8%	5.9%	0.80×	20.95
Fakel Voronezh & over 3.5	0.4%	4.8%	7.8%	0.61×	20.96

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (1UP)	75.9%	78.6%	—	—	1.27
Fakel Voronezh (1UP)	16.5%	22.1%	—	—	4.53

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (2UP)	69.9%	69.3%	—	—	1.44
Fakel Voronezh (2UP)	6.8%	8.4%	—	—	11.94

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to win 2nd half	54.2%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
2nd half drawn	37.5%	36.1%	—	—	2.77
Fakel Voronezh to win 2nd half	8.2%	7.8%	—	—	12.89

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (+0.5)	93.2%	92.1%	71.8%	1.28×	1.09
Fakel Voronezh (+2.5)	80.5%	82.4%	89.6%	0.92×	1.21
Spartak Moscow (-0.5)	69.9%	68.7%	44.2%	1.56×	1.46
Fakel Voronezh (+1.5)	58.1%	57.0%	77.3%	0.74×	1.75
Spartak Moscow (-1.5)	41.9%	43.0%	22.7%	1.89×	2.33
Fakel Voronezh (+0.5)	30.1%	31.3%	55.8%	0.56×	3.20
Spartak Moscow (-2.5)	19.5%	17.6%	10.4%	1.69×	5.68
Fakel Voronezh (-0.5)	6.8%	7.9%	28.2%	0.28×	12.64

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to concede	82.0%	81.3%	77.9%	1.04×	1.23
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet	18.0%	18.7%	22.1%	0.85×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh clean sheet in 1st half	47.8%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Fakel Voronezh to concede in 1st half	52.2%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 6.5 corners	91.6%	90.0%	—	—	1.11
Fakel Voronezh under 5.5 corners	84.1%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Fakel Voronezh under 4.5 corners	72.2%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 corners	64.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 corners	55.6%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 corners	44.4%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 corners	35.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Fakel Voronezh over 4.5 corners	27.8%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Fakel Voronezh over 5.5 corners	15.9%	18.5%	—	—	5.40
Fakel Voronezh over 6.5 corners	8.4%	10.0%	—	—	10.04

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 3.5 goals	99.9%	97.6%	96.9%	1.01×	1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 2.5 goals	99.3%	97.6%	88.8%	1.10×	1.03
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 goals	94.4%	92.3%	70.1%	1.32×	1.08
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 goals	68.4%	68.0%	32.7%	2.08×	1.47
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 goals	31.6%	32.0%	67.3%	0.48×	3.12
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 goals	5.6%	7.7%	29.9%	0.26×	13.06
Fakel Voronezh over 2.5 goals	0.7%	2.4%	11.2%	0.22×	40.85
Fakel Voronezh over 3.5 goals	0.1%	2.4%	3.1%	0.80×	40.88

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh under 1.5 in 1st half	99.0%	96.1%	—	—	1.04
Fakel Voronezh under 0.5 in 1st half	85.9%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Fakel Voronezh over 0.5 in 1st half	14.1%	11.0%	—	—	9.06
Fakel Voronezh over 1.5 in 1st half	1.0%	3.9%	—	—	25.73

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (away no bet)	75.0%	68.6%	61.4%	1.12×	1.46
Draw (away no bet)	25.0%	31.4%	38.6%	0.81×	3.19

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh even goals	73.4%	68.2%	53.4%	1.28×	1.47
Fakel Voronezh odd goals	26.6%	31.8%	46.6%	0.68×	3.15

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	92.4%	92.6%	—	—	1.08
Both halves over 1.5 goals	7.6%	7.4%	—	—	13.50

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	49.1%	50.4%	—	—	1.99
Both halves under 1.5 goals	50.9%	49.6%	—	—	2.02

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	50.6%	51.2%	—	—	1.95
Spartak Moscow to score 2+ in a row	48.0%	45.9%	—	—	2.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row	21.9%	19.5%	—	—	5.12
Spartak Moscow to score 3+ in a row	21.6%	19.5%	—	—	5.13
Fakel Voronezh to score 2+ in a row	3.6%	2.6%	—	—	38.34
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+ in a row	0.3%	2.5%	—	—	40.45

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow corners (+3.5)	95.2%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Spartak Moscow corners (+2.5)	91.3%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Spartak Moscow corners (+1.5)	85.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Fakel Voronezh corners (+3.5)	67.7%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Fakel Voronezh corners (+2.5)	56.7%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Spartak Moscow corners (-1.5)	55.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Fakel Voronezh corners (+1.5)	44.7%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Spartak Moscow corners (-2.5)	43.3%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Spartak Moscow corners (-3.5)	32.3%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Fakel Voronezh corners (-1.5)	14.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.45
Fakel Voronezh corners (-2.5)	8.7%	10.4%	—	—	9.58
Fakel Voronezh corners (-3.5)	4.8%	4.3%	—	—	23.52

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	47.8%	41.7%	—	—	2.40
9-11 corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	22.1%	25.6%	—	—	3.91

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	84.7%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	77.9%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Under 10.5 corners	69.4%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 7.5 corners	63.9%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Under 9.5 corners	59.2%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Over 8.5 corners	52.2%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Under 8.5 corners	47.8%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Over 9.5 corners	40.8%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Under 7.5 corners	36.1%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	30.6%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	22.1%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Over 12.5 corners	15.3%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	20.3%	20.1%	10.8%	1.85×	4.98
2-0	18.1%	13.8%	7.8%	1.77×	7.26
0-0	13.1%	11.5%	7.4%	1.56×	8.73
3-0	10.4%	11.5%	4.1%	2.80×	8.73
1-1	8.8%	7.4%	14.9%	0.50×	13.48
2-1	6.9%	7.4%	8.8%	0.84×	13.48
0-1	3.9%	1.7%	7.8%	0.22×	58.47
0-2	0.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.48
0-3	0.1%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.49
0-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.49
1-2	1.5%	1.7%	6.7%	0.25×	58.48
1-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.49
1-4	0.0%	1.7%	1.0%	1.67×	58.49
2-2	1.3%	1.7%	4.9%	0.35×	58.48
2-3	0.2%	1.7%	2.7%	0.64×	58.49
2-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.8%	2.09×	58.49
3-1	3.9%	1.7%	4.3%	0.40×	58.47
3-2	0.7%	1.7%	2.2%	0.76×	58.49
3-3	0.1%	1.7%	1.2%	1.39×	58.49
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.49
4-0	4.4%	1.7%	2.5%	0.70×	58.46
4-1	1.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.19×	58.48
4-2	0.3%	1.7%	0.8%	2.09×	58.49
4-3	0.0%	1.7%	0.4%	4.18×	58.49
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.36×	58.49
Any other score	3.1%	1.7%	4.1%	0.42×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow leading at HT (DNB)	87.1%	86.4%	—	—	1.16
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT (DNB)	12.9%	13.6%	—	—	7.37

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw (1X)	93.2%	91.8%	71.8%	1.28×	1.09
Spartak Moscow or Fakel Voronezh (12)	76.7%	75.5%	72.2%	1.05×	1.32
Fakel Voronezh or draw (X2)	30.1%	34.8%	55.8%	0.62×	2.87

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw at HT	93.0%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Spartak Moscow or Fakel Voronezh at HT	53.9%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Fakel Voronezh or draw at HT	53.1%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw (1UP)	93.2%	93.8%	—	—	1.07
Fakel Voronezh or draw (1UP)	30.1%	38.4%	—	—	2.61

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow or draw in 2nd half	91.8%	92.2%	—	—	1.08
Spartak Moscow or Fakel Voronezh in 2nd half	62.5%	63.9%	—	—	1.57
Fakel Voronezh or draw in 2nd half	45.8%	47.6%	—	—	2.10

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	65.5%	69.2%	—	—	1.45
Neither half drawn	34.5%	30.8%	—	—	3.25

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (DNB)	91.1%	93.0%	61.0%	1.52×	1.08
Fakel Voronezh (DNB)	8.9%	7.0%	39.0%	0.18×	14.31

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score first	71.1%	74.7%	—	—	1.34
Fakel Voronezh to score first	15.8%	17.1%	—	—	5.86
No goal scored	13.1%	10.3%	—	—	9.71

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	73.3%	62.4%	47.4%	1.32×	1.60
Both teams to score	26.7%	37.6%	52.6%	0.72×	2.66

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	56.3%	47.2%	37.2%	1.27×	2.12
Both score & over 2.5	17.9%	21.7%	37.8%	0.57×	4.60
Not both score & over 2.5	17.0%	21.7%	10.4%	2.08×	4.61
Both score & under 2.5	8.8%	8.4%	14.9%	0.56×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	97.1%	91.8%	86.9%	1.06×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	2.9%	8.2%	13.1%	0.63×	12.13

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	87.0%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Both teams to score in 2nd half	13.0%	12.7%	—	—	7.89

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	80.4%	80.9%	—	—	1.24
Both score 2nd half only	12.1%	10.7%	—	—	9.31
Both score 1st half only	6.6%	6.8%	—	—	14.78
Both score in both halves	0.9%	4.9%	—	—	20.56

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	92.5%	92.7%	—	—	1.08
Both teams to score by HT	7.5%	7.3%	—	—	13.67

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	58.3%	57.4%	—	—	1.74
A goal in each half	41.7%	42.6%	—	—	2.35

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.7%	47.4%	47.9%	0.99×	2.11
0-1 goals	37.3%	35.1%	25.6%	1.37×	2.85
4-6 goals	15.5%	20.2%	25.4%	0.79×	4.96
7+ goals	0.6%	1.8%	1.6%	1.12×	54.75

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 0	68.4%	60.1%	32.7%	1.84×	1.66
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 1	26.0%	27.4%	37.6%	0.73×	3.65
Fakel Voronezh to score exactly 2	4.9%	4.6%	18.8%	0.24×	21.97
Fakel Voronezh to score 3+	0.7%	4.5%	11.2%	0.40×	22.27

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 1	30.9%	32.6%	35.2%	0.93×	3.06
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 2	26.5%	26.5%	24.3%	1.09×	3.77
Spartak Moscow to score 3+	24.7%	23.3%	18.8%	1.24×	4.30
Spartak Moscow to score exactly 0	18.0%	18.9%	22.1%	0.86×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow leading at HT	46.9%	52.4%	—	—	1.91
Draw at HT	46.1%	52.3%	—	—	1.91
Fakel Voronezh leading at HT	7.0%	9.5%	—	—	10.52

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow -1: 1	41.9%	42.8%	—	—	2.34
Spartak Moscow -1: 2	30.1%	30.0%	—	—	3.33
Spartak Moscow -1: X	28.0%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (0:1)	41.9%	42.7%	22.7%	1.88×	2.34
Fakel Voronezh (0:1)	30.1%	30.0%	55.8%	0.54×	3.34
Draw (0:1)	28.0%	27.0%	21.7%	1.25×	3.70

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:2)	58.1%	62.8%	77.3%	0.81×	1.59
Draw (0:2)	22.4%	20.3%	12.5%	1.63×	4.92
Spartak Moscow (0:2)	19.5%	15.3%	10.4%	1.47×	6.54

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:3)	80.5%	85.1%	89.6%	0.95×	1.18
Draw (0:3)	12.2%	10.0%	5.9%	1.69×	10.00
Spartak Moscow (0:3)	7.4%	5.8%	4.7%	1.24×	17.16

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh (0:4)	92.6%	94.7%	95.3%	0.99×	1.06
Draw (0:4)	5.1%	4.6%	3.7%	1.25×	21.69
Spartak Moscow (0:4)	2.3%	1.2%	1.2%	0.98×	83.41

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (1:0)	93.2%	92.7%	71.8%	1.29×	1.08
Draw (1:0)	5.6%	6.9%	17.0%	0.41×	14.47
Fakel Voronezh (1:0)	1.2%	3.1%	11.5%	0.27×	31.92

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow (2:0)	98.8%	97.0%	88.5%	1.09×	1.03
Draw (2:0)	1.1%	2.3%	7.4%	0.31×	44.30
Fakel Voronezh (2:0)	0.1%	2.3%	4.3%	0.52×	44.37

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	42.7%	49.4%	—	—	2.03
Halves equal	30.7%	28.2%	—	—	3.54
1st half highest scoring	26.6%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow clean sheet	68.4%	66.6%	32.7%	2.03×	1.50
Spartak Moscow to concede	31.6%	33.4%	67.3%	0.50×	2.99

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow clean sheet in 1st half	85.9%	85.9%	—	—	1.16
Spartak Moscow to concede in 1st half	14.1%	14.1%	—	—	7.09

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow over 2.5 corners	87.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Spartak Moscow over 3.5 corners	75.0%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Spartak Moscow under 6.5 corners	67.4%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Spartak Moscow over 4.5 corners	60.5%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Spartak Moscow under 5.5 corners	54.3%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Spartak Moscow over 5.5 corners	45.7%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Spartak Moscow under 4.5 corners	39.5%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Spartak Moscow over 6.5 corners	32.6%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Spartak Moscow under 3.5 corners	25.0%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Spartak Moscow under 2.5 corners	12.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.29

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow under 3.5 goals	90.4%	92.2%	92.6%	1.00×	1.08
Spartak Moscow over 0.5 goals	82.0%	82.1%	77.9%	1.05×	1.22
Spartak Moscow under 2.5 goals	75.3%	77.7%	81.2%	0.96×	1.29
Spartak Moscow over 1.5 goals	51.2%	53.2%	42.9%	1.24×	1.88
Spartak Moscow under 1.5 goals	48.8%	46.8%	57.1%	0.82×	2.14
Spartak Moscow over 2.5 goals	24.7%	22.3%	18.8%	1.18×	4.49
Spartak Moscow under 0.5 goals	18.0%	17.9%	22.1%	0.81×	5.59
Spartak Moscow over 3.5 goals	9.6%	7.8%	7.4%	1.05×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow under 1.5 in 1st half	83.1%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Spartak Moscow under 0.5 in 1st half	47.8%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
Spartak Moscow over 0.5 in 1st half	52.2%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
Spartak Moscow over 1.5 in 1st half	16.9%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	77.4%	78.8%	49.6%	1.59×	1.27
Fakel Voronezh (home no bet)	22.6%	21.2%	50.4%	0.42×	4.73

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow even goals	51.6%	50.6%	50.5%	1.00×	1.98
Spartak Moscow odd goals	48.4%	49.4%	49.5%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	41.2%	40.8%	—	—	2.45
HT 1-0	30.2%	32.2%	—	—	3.11
HT 2-0	11.2%	10.9%	—	—	9.17
HT 0-1	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 1-1	4.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.26
Any other HT score	3.9%	2.3%	—	—	43.32
HT 2-1	1.7%	2.3%	—	—	43.49
HT 0-2	0.5%	2.3%	—	—	43.58
HT 1-2	0.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.59
HT 2-2	0.1%	2.3%	—	—	43.60

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	43.9%	43.4%	—	—	2.30
Draw at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	24.5%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	18.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	3.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.83
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Spartak Moscow at HT / Draw at FT	2.7%	3.5%	—	—	28.86
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Draw at FT	2.4%	3.5%	—	—	28.87
Fakel Voronezh at HT / Spartak Moscow at FT	1.5%	3.5%	—	—	28.91
Spartak Moscow at HT / Fakel Voronezh at FT	0.3%	3.5%	—	—	28.95

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow to score last	71.4%	72.3%	—	—	1.38
Fakel Voronezh to score last	15.5%	11.6%	—	—	8.59
No goal scored	13.1%	9.7%	—	—	10.32

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	86.9%	90.5%	—	—	1.11
Spartak Moscow to lead by 1 at any time	75.9%	78.0%	—	—	1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	47.0%	44.0%	—	—	2.27
Spartak Moscow to lead by 2 at any time	44.9%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.0%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Spartak Moscow to lead by 3 at any time	20.7%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 1 at any time	16.5%	14.9%	—	—	6.71
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 2 at any time	2.2%	1.6%	—	—	62.12
Fakel Voronezh to lead by 3 at any time	0.2%	1.6%	—	—	64.16

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow most corners	66.9%	64.5%	—	—	1.55
Fakel Voronezh most corners	22.8%	25.9%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	10.3%	10.4%	—	—	9.62

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.9%	83.5%	87.5%	0.95×	1.20
1-4 goals	80.7%	83.5%	79.6%	1.05×	1.20
1-3 goals	70.9%	72.4%	66.1%	1.10×	1.38
2-6 goals	62.2%	63.4%	73.0%	0.87×	1.58
2-5 goals	60.7%	63.4%	69.3%	0.91×	1.58
2-4 goals	56.6%	59.2%	61.4%	0.96×	1.69
1-2 goals	52.0%	53.2%	44.8%	1.19×	1.88
2-3 goals	46.7%	48.7%	47.9%	1.02×	2.06
3-6 goals	34.4%	35.4%	46.6%	0.76×	2.83
3-5 goals	32.9%	35.4%	42.9%	0.82×	2.83
3-4 goals	28.8%	30.3%	35.0%	0.87×	3.31
4-6 goals	15.5%	18.6%	25.4%	0.73×	5.37
4-5 goals	14.0%	14.9%	21.7%	0.69×	6.72
5-6 goals	5.6%	8.7%	11.9%	0.74×	11.46
7+ goals	0.6%	2.5%	1.6%	1.56×	39.31

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow never behind	70.4%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Fakel Voronezh never behind	11.0%	12.5%	—	—	7.99

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	47.6%	50.8%	48.9%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	52.4%	49.2%	51.1%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	58.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Odd goals in 1st half	41.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	55.0%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Odd goals in 2nd half	45.0%	42.2%	—	—	2.37

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	98.0%	95.5%	94.7%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	93.8%	92.3%	86.7%	1.06×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	86.9%	87.6%	92.6%	0.95×	1.14
Under 3.5 goals	83.9%	82.4%	73.2%	1.13×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	65.1%	66.2%	51.9%	1.27×	1.51
Over 1.5 goals	62.7%	61.8%	74.4%	0.83×	1.62
Under 1.5 goals	37.3%	38.2%	25.6%	1.50×	2.62
Over 2.5 goals	34.9%	33.8%	48.1%	0.70×	2.96
Over 3.5 goals	16.1%	17.6%	26.8%	0.66×	5.68
Under 0.5 goals	13.1%	12.4%	7.4%	1.68×	8.09
Over 4.5 goals	6.2%	7.7%	13.3%	0.58×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	2.0%	4.5%	5.3%	0.85×	22.23

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.4%	97.2%	98.3%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	97.9%	97.2%	94.2%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	93.2%	92.5%	84.6%	1.09×	1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	80.2%	81.0%	66.0%	1.23×	1.23
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	51.6%	51.8%	34.7%	1.49×	1.93
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	48.4%	48.2%	65.3%	0.74×	2.08
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	19.8%	19.0%	34.0%	0.56×	5.27
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	6.8%	7.5%	15.4%	0.49×	13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	2.1%	2.8%	5.8%	0.48×	36.16
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.6%	2.8%	1.7%	1.63×	36.21

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	93.9%	92.8%	—	—	1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half	77.5%	78.8%	—	—	1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half	58.8%	62.8%	—	—	1.59
Under 0.5 in 1st half	41.2%	37.2%	—	—	2.69
Over 1.5 in 1st half	22.5%	21.2%	—	—	4.71
Over 2.5 in 1st half	6.1%	7.2%	—	—	13.89

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	87.8%	85.4%	—	—	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	69.8%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	65.8%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	34.2%	32.6%	—	—	3.07
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	30.2%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	12.2%	14.6%	—	—	6.84

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to score in both halves	97.1%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Spartak Moscow not to score in both halves	67.4%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
Spartak Moscow to score in both halves	32.6%	29.5%	—	—	3.38
Fakel Voronezh to score in both halves	2.9%	2.7%	—	—	36.52

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Spartak Moscow scores	55.3%	58.3%	25.6%	2.28×	1.71
Both teams score	26.7%	26.1%	52.6%	0.50×	3.83
Neither team scores	13.1%	10.9%	7.4%	1.49×	9.14
Only Fakel Voronezh scores	4.9%	4.6%	14.9%	0.31×	21.78

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	27.8%	25.0%	26.6%	0.94×	4.01
Exactly 1 goals	24.2%	22.6%	18.4%	1.23×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	18.9%	17.4%	21.5%	0.81×	5.74
Exactly 0 goals	13.1%	12.1%	7.4%	1.64×	8.27
Exactly 4 goals	9.9%	7.6%	13.7%	0.56×	13.08
Exactly 5 goals	4.1%	4.4%	8.2%	0.54×	22.65
6 or more goals	2.0%	4.4%	5.3%	0.83×	22.69

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	35.6%	39.5%	—	—	2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half	34.2%	33.5%	—	—	2.99
No goals in 2nd half	30.2%	33.4%	—	—	3.00

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win both halves	99.4%	97.3%	—	—	1.03
Spartak Moscow not to win both halves	74.4%	73.0%	—	—	1.37
Spartak Moscow to win both halves	25.6%	27.0%	—	—	3.71
Fakel Voronezh to win both halves	0.6%	2.7%	—	—	37.06

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh to win neither half	85.4%	91.4%	—	—	1.10
Spartak Moscow to win either half	75.5%	79.5%	—	—	1.26
Spartak Moscow to win neither half	24.5%	20.5%	—	—	4.88
Fakel Voronezh to win either half	14.6%	8.6%	—	—	11.58

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Fakel Voronezh not to win to nil	95.1%	96.1%	85.1%	1.13×	1.04
Spartak Moscow to win to nil	55.3%	58.8%	25.6%	2.30×	1.70
Spartak Moscow not to win to nil	44.7%	41.2%	74.4%	0.55×	2.43
Fakel Voronezh to win to nil	4.9%	3.9%	14.9%	0.26×	25.58

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Spartak Moscow by 1	28.0%	27.9%	21.7%	1.29×	3.59
Draw	23.3%	24.2%	27.8%	0.87×	4.14
Spartak Moscow by 2	22.4%	24.1%	12.5%	1.94×	4.14
Spartak Moscow by 3+	19.5%	16.9%	10.4%	1.62×	5.91
Fakel Voronezh by 1	5.6%	7.3%	17.0%	0.43×	13.79
Fakel Voronezh by 2	1.1%	2.7%	7.4%	0.37×	37.05
Fakel Voronezh by 3+	0.1%	2.7%	4.3%	0.63×	37.08