Sporting CP v CD Nacional — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 5 September 2026 · FIFA:2000000033 · 2627
FIFA:2000000033
results-only Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend v1.0 dailyCalibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (999 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.
Top 5 scorelines
- 2-1 9.7%
- 2-0 9.6%
- 1-1 8.2%
- 1-0 8.2%
- 3-1 7.6%
Goals
| Over 2.5 | 65.3% | Under 2.5 | 34.7% |
| BTTS yes | 57.4% | BTTS no | 42.6% |
| Sporting CP 1+ | 90.5% | Sporting CP 2+ | 68.2% |
| CD Nacional 1+ | 63.4% | CD Nacional 2+ | 26.6% |
Expected goals 2.36 – 1.01. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.
Footing
Positive factors
- Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1600.
- Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Risk factors
- Data quality is 35/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this
The price
Sporting CP have an estimated 67.6% win probability, against 19.1% for the draw and 13.3% for CD Nacional. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.36 for Sporting CP and 1.01 for CD Nacional.
Why Sporting CP
Sporting CP carry the stronger rating, 1812 Elo against 1600. Form is good: 2.60 points a match from the last five.
Why the draw is live
The draw sits at 19.1%.
Why CD Nacional can win
Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.
Key players
No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.
Availability
No lineup on record for Sporting CP, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for CD Nacional, so availability is unknown.
The matchup, as far as the data reaches
Sporting CP: 59% possession, 12.8 shots a match, 9.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. CD Nacional: 41% possession, 10.6 shots a match, 11.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.
Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·
Sporting CP are the model's most likely outcome at 67.6%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.7%. Confidence 25/100, data quality 35/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.
Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend | 2.36–1.01 | 0% | 0% | 0% |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.