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Sporting Cristal v Los Chankas — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 September 2026 · PER-Liga 1 · 2627

PER-Liga 1 results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sporting Cristal win
62.4%
model 62.8%
Draw
18.9%
model 19.6%
Los Chankas win
18.8%
model 17.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (222 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 2-1 9.9%
  2. 2-0 9.5%
  3. 1-0 9.0%
  4. 1-1 9.0%
  5. 3-1 7.1%

Goals

Over 2.561.8% Under 2.538.2%
BTTS yes57.0% BTTS no43.0%
Sporting Cristal 1+88.3% Sporting Cristal 2+63.3%
Los Chankas 1+64.7% Los Chankas 2+28.0%

Expected goals 2.15 – 1.04. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
77/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)
Over/Under (whole line) · usually 37%
53.4% fair odds 1.87
strong signal · 556 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sporting Cristal or draw (1UP)
Double chance 1UP
84.1% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 419 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Nothing in the data singles out Sporting Cristal.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sporting Cristal have an estimated 62.4% win probability, against 18.9% for the draw and 18.8% for Los Chankas. Expected goals from the ensemble are 2.15 for Sporting Cristal and 1.04 for Los Chankas.

Why Sporting Cristal

Nothing in the data singles out Sporting Cristal.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 18.9%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Los Chankas can win

Nothing in the data singles out Los Chankas.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting Cristal, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Los Chankas, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting Cristal: 55% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Los Chankas: 44% possession, 12.6 shots a match, 17.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sporting Cristal are the model's most likely outcome at 62.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 2-1 at 9.9%. Confidence 77/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 2.15–1.04 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 2.38–1.05 2-1 10% 67% 59%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to win 67.1% 65.0% 50.0% 1.30× 1.54
Draw 17.7% 19.3% 25.1% 0.77× 5.17
Los Chankas to win 15.2% 19.3% 25.1% 0.77× 5.18
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal & both teams score 35.1% 33.1% 23.6% 1.40× 3.02
Sporting Cristal & not both score 32.0% 29.7% 26.5% 1.12× 3.37
Draw & both teams score 14.6% 13.3% 17.5% 0.76× 7.54
Los Chankas & both teams score 9.1% 8.4% 13.1% 0.64× 11.92
Los Chankas & not both score 6.2% 8.4% 12.2% 0.69× 11.94
Draw & not both score 3.1% 4.9% 7.8% 0.62× 20.59
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal & over 1.5 59.2% 55.0% 38.2% 1.44× 1.82
Sporting Cristal & over 2.5 50.0% 45.2% 30.9% 1.46× 2.21
Sporting Cristal & under 3.5 34.0% 30.9% 33.8% 0.91× 3.24
Sporting Cristal & over 3.5 33.1% 30.9% 16.4% 1.89× 3.24
Sporting Cristal & under 2.5 17.1% 18.0% 19.3% 0.93× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.6% 12.9% 17.5% 0.74× 7.77
Los Chankas & over 1.5 11.7% 12.9% 17.3% 0.74× 7.77
Draw & under 2.5 11.0% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.77
Draw & under 3.5 11.0% 12.9% 18.9% 0.68× 7.77
Los Chankas & under 3.5 10.2% 12.9% 19.1% 0.67× 7.77
Los Chankas & over 2.5 9.9% 7.9% 14.4% 0.55× 12.69
Sporting Cristal & under 1.5 7.9% 7.9% 12.0% 0.66× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 6.7% 7.9% 6.4% 1.24× 12.70
Los Chankas & under 2.5 5.3% 7.9% 10.9% 0.72× 12.70
Los Chankas & over 3.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.2% 1.27× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 3.1% 4.8% 7.8% 0.61× 20.94
Los Chankas & under 1.5 3.6% 4.8% 8.0% 0.60× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (1UP) 78.9% 79.1% 1.27
Los Chankas (1UP) 34.8% 33.1% 3.02
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (2UP) 67.1% 68.7% 1.46
Los Chankas (2UP) 15.2% 17.2% 5.82
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to win 2nd half 54.6% 52.5% 1.91
2nd half drawn 28.1% 26.3% 3.80
Los Chankas to win 2nd half 17.3% 19.0% 5.27
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (+0.5) 84.8% 82.4% 74.9% 1.10× 1.21
Los Chankas (+2.5) 75.1% 78.4% 88.5% 0.89× 1.28
Sporting Cristal (-0.5) 67.1% 68.7% 50.0% 1.37× 1.46
Los Chankas (+1.5) 55.4% 57.0% 75.3% 0.76× 1.76
Sporting Cristal (-1.5) 44.6% 43.0% 24.7% 1.74× 2.33
Los Chankas (+0.5) 32.9% 31.3% 50.0% 0.63× 3.20
Sporting Cristal (-2.5) 24.9% 21.6% 11.5% 1.88× 4.63
Los Chankas (-0.5) 15.2% 17.6% 25.1% 0.70× 5.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede 90.8% 91.7% 80.2% 1.14× 1.09
Los Chankas clean sheet 9.2% 8.3% 19.8% 0.42× 12.07
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to concede in 1st half 64.1% 65.0% 1.54
Los Chankas clean sheet in 1st half 35.9% 35.0% 2.86
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 6.5 corners 88.4% 84.9% 1.18
Los Chankas under 5.5 corners 80.4% 80.9% 1.24
Los Chankas under 4.5 corners 68.7% 68.2% 1.47
Los Chankas over 2.5 corners 64.9% 61.4% 1.63
Los Chankas under 3.5 corners 53.2% 52.4% 1.91
Los Chankas over 3.5 corners 46.8% 47.6% 2.10
Los Chankas under 2.5 corners 35.1% 38.6% 2.59
Los Chankas over 4.5 corners 31.3% 31.8% 3.15
Los Chankas over 5.5 corners 19.6% 19.1% 5.24
Los Chankas over 6.5 corners 11.6% 15.1% 6.63
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 3.5 goals 97.8% 97.5% 97.5% 1.00× 1.03
Los Chankas under 2.5 goals 91.1% 92.3% 92.0% 1.00× 1.08
Los Chankas under 1.5 goals 71.8% 71.9% 71.6% 1.00× 1.39
Los Chankas over 0.5 goals 64.9% 63.0% 65.8% 0.96× 1.59
Los Chankas under 0.5 goals 35.1% 37.0% 34.2% 1.08× 2.70
Los Chankas over 1.5 goals 28.2% 28.1% 28.4% 0.99× 3.56
Los Chankas over 2.5 goals 8.9% 7.7% 8.0% 0.96× 13.02
Los Chankas over 3.5 goals 2.2% 2.5% 2.5% 0.96× 40.76
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas under 1.5 in 1st half 93.3% 94.2% 1.06
Los Chankas under 0.5 in 1st half 65.8% 68.2% 1.47
Los Chankas over 0.5 in 1st half 34.2% 31.8% 3.14
Los Chankas over 1.5 in 1st half 6.7% 5.8% 17.27
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (away no bet) 79.1% 73.8% 66.6% 1.11× 1.36
Draw (away no bet) 20.9% 26.2% 33.4% 0.79× 3.81
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas even goals 56.1% 56.9% 56.9% 1.00× 1.76
Los Chankas odd goals 43.9% 43.1% 43.1% 1.00× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 75.0% 82.0% 1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals 25.0% 18.0% 5.56
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 76.3% 72.5% 1.38
Both halves under 1.5 goals 23.7% 27.5% 3.64
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 70.5% 71.8% 1.39
Sporting Cristal to score 2+ in a row 60.7% 59.8% 1.67
Either team to score 3+ in a row 34.8% 29.1% 3.44
Sporting Cristal to score 3+ in a row 31.5% 28.9% 3.45
Los Chankas to score 2+ in a row 18.0% 16.3% 6.12
Los Chankas to score 3+ in a row 3.8% 2.6% 38.27
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal corners (+3.5) 95.9% 94.0% 1.06
Sporting Cristal corners (+2.5) 93.2% 88.7% 1.13
Sporting Cristal corners (+1.5) 89.2% 84.2% 1.19
Sporting Cristal corners (-1.5) 68.2% 66.8% 1.50
Sporting Cristal corners (-2.5) 59.0% 56.8% 1.76
Los Chankas corners (+3.5) 50.4% 52.3% 1.91
Sporting Cristal corners (-3.5) 49.6% 47.7% 2.10
Los Chankas corners (+2.5) 41.0% 43.2% 2.32
Los Chankas corners (+1.5) 31.8% 33.2% 3.01
Los Chankas corners (-1.5) 10.8% 15.8% 6.32
Los Chankas corners (-2.5) 6.8% 11.3% 8.82
Los Chankas corners (-3.5) 4.1% 6.0% 16.56
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 41.9% 37.0% 2.70
0-8 corners 30.9% 32.0% 3.13
9-11 corners 27.1% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.6% 76.6% 1.31
Over 8.5 corners 69.1% 67.9% 1.47
Under 12.5 corners 66.2% 67.9% 1.47
Over 9.5 corners 60.0% 57.8% 1.73
Under 11.5 corners 58.1% 57.8% 1.73
Over 10.5 corners 50.8% 52.2% 1.91
Under 10.5 corners 49.2% 47.8% 2.09
Over 11.5 corners 41.9% 42.2% 2.37
Under 9.5 corners 40.0% 42.2% 2.37
Over 12.5 corners 33.9% 32.1% 3.12
Under 8.5 corners 30.9% 32.1% 3.12
Under 7.5 corners 22.4% 23.4% 4.28
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-0 9.2% 7.4% 7.5% 1.00× 13.48
2-1 9.6% 7.4% 9.8% 0.76× 13.48
Any other score 9.7% 7.4% 2.7% 2.72× 13.48
1-0 7.9% 7.4% 12.0% 0.62× 13.48
1-1 7.9% 7.4% 11.3% 0.66× 13.48
3-0 7.3% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.48
3-1 7.7% 7.4% 5.3% 1.41× 13.48
2-2 5.0% 7.4% 5.6% 1.32× 13.48
0-0 3.1% 1.7% 7.8% 0.22× 58.47
0-1 3.6% 1.7% 8.0% 0.21× 58.47
0-2 1.8% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.48
0-3 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.49
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.13× 58.49
1-2 4.2% 1.7% 7.5% 0.23× 58.47
1-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.48
1-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.49
2-3 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 0.86× 58.48
2-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.49
3-2 4.0% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.47
3-3 1.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.88× 58.48
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.35× 58.49
4-0 4.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.05× 58.46
4-1 4.6% 1.7% 2.5% 0.67× 58.46
4-2 2.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.57× 58.48
4-3 0.8% 1.7% 0.4% 4.70× 58.49
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.2% 9.40× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal leading at HT (DNB) 77.0% 77.9% 1.28
Los Chankas leading at HT (DNB) 23.0% 22.1% 4.53
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal or draw (1X) 84.8% 80.7% 74.9% 1.08× 1.24
Sporting Cristal or Los Chankas (12) 82.3% 80.7% 74.9% 1.08× 1.24
Los Chankas or draw (X2) 32.9% 35.0% 50.0% 0.70× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal or draw at HT 85.0% 87.9% 1.14
Sporting Cristal or Los Chankas at HT 65.2% 66.3% 1.51
Los Chankas or draw at HT 49.8% 52.4% 1.91
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal or draw (1UP) 84.8% 88.7% 1.13
Los Chankas or draw (1UP) 34.8% 39.2% 2.55
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal or draw in 2nd half 82.7% 81.0% 1.23
Sporting Cristal or Los Chankas in 2nd half 71.9% 73.7% 1.36
Los Chankas or draw in 2nd half 45.4% 47.5% 2.10
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half drawn 46.7% 50.0% 2.00
A half drawn 53.3% 50.0% 2.00
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (DNB) 81.5% 80.5% 66.6% 1.21× 1.24
Los Chankas (DNB) 18.5% 19.5% 33.4% 0.58× 5.12
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to score first 67.3% 69.3% 1.44
Los Chankas to score first 29.6% 28.5% 3.51
No goal scored 3.1% 4.3% 23.43
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 58.8% 54.9% 53.8% 1.02× 1.82
Not both teams to score 41.2% 45.1% 46.2% 0.98× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 50.8% 47.0% 42.7% 1.10× 2.13
Not both score & under 2.5 25.5% 33.6% 37.6% 0.89× 2.98
Not both score & over 2.5 15.7% 21.7% 8.7% 2.49× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 7.9% 8.4% 11.3% 0.74× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.6% 83.0% 85.6% 0.97× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 19.4% 17.0% 14.4% 1.18× 5.89
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 65.4% 67.5% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.6% 32.5% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 51.1% 55.8% 1.79
Both score 2nd half only 27.0% 26.5% 3.77
Both score 1st half only 14.3% 10.8% 9.27
Both score in both halves 7.6% 6.8% 14.72
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.1% 81.5% 1.23
Both teams to score by HT 21.9% 18.5% 5.41
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 65.8% 66.7% 1.50
A half without a goal 34.2% 33.3% 3.00
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 40.7% 42.1% 44.2% 0.95× 2.38
4-6 goals 38.8% 35.1% 26.9% 1.30× 2.85
0-1 goals 14.5% 17.0% 27.5% 0.62× 5.90
7+ goals 5.9% 7.6% 1.8% 4.16× 13.22
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas to score exactly 1 36.7% 36.0% 37.6% 0.96× 2.78
Los Chankas to score exactly 0 35.1% 36.0% 34.2% 1.05× 2.78
Los Chankas to score exactly 2 19.3% 19.6% 20.5% 0.95× 5.11
Los Chankas to score 3+ 8.9% 8.5% 8.0% 1.06× 11.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to score 3+ 42.5% 34.9% 22.5% 1.55× 2.86
Sporting Cristal to score exactly 2 26.2% 26.5% 25.1% 1.06× 3.77
Sporting Cristal to score exactly 1 22.0% 23.2% 32.9% 0.71× 4.30
Sporting Cristal to score exactly 0 9.2% 10.3% 19.8% 0.52× 9.70
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal leading at HT 50.2% 47.6% 2.10
Draw at HT 34.8% 33.7% 2.97
Los Chankas leading at HT 15.0% 12.1% 8.28
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal -1: 1 44.6% 42.8% 2.34
Sporting Cristal -1: 2 32.9% 30.1% 3.33
Sporting Cristal -1: X 22.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (0:1) 44.6% 42.7% 24.7% 1.73× 2.34
Los Chankas (0:1) 32.9% 30.0% 50.0% 0.60× 3.33
Draw (0:1) 22.5% 24.3% 25.5% 0.95× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:2) 55.4% 62.6% 75.3% 0.83× 1.60
Sporting Cristal (0:2) 24.9% 20.4% 11.5% 1.78× 4.90
Draw (0:2) 19.7% 15.3% 13.5% 1.14× 6.54
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:3) 75.1% 80.3% 88.5% 0.91× 1.25
Draw (0:3) 13.2% 10.0% 7.6% 1.31× 9.98
Sporting Cristal (0:3) 11.8% 10.0% 4.0% 2.50× 10.00
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas (0:4) 88.2% 92.0% 96.0% 0.96× 1.09
Draw (0:4) 7.0% 4.6% 2.5% 1.83× 21.51
Sporting Cristal (0:4) 4.7% 1.2% 1.6% 0.74× 83.12
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (1:0) 84.8% 81.5% 74.9% 1.09× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 10.0% 6.9% 17.6% 0.39× 14.40
Los Chankas (1:0) 5.3% 6.9% 7.6% 0.90× 14.48
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal (2:0) 94.7% 94.0% 92.4% 1.02× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 3.8% 2.3% 5.6% 0.40× 44.13
Los Chankas (2:0) 1.4% 2.3% 2.2% 1.04× 44.28
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 50.4% 50.2% 1.99
1st half highest scoring 28.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 21.5% 24.1% 4.16
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to concede 64.9% 63.5% 65.8% 0.96× 1.58
Sporting Cristal clean sheet 35.1% 36.5% 34.2% 1.07× 2.74
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal clean sheet in 1st half 65.8% 68.5% 1.46
Sporting Cristal to concede in 1st half 34.2% 31.5% 3.17
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal over 2.5 corners 92.6% 88.3% 1.13
Sporting Cristal over 3.5 corners 85.4% 85.2% 1.17
Sporting Cristal over 4.5 corners 76.0% 76.1% 1.31
Sporting Cristal over 5.5 corners 65.2% 67.7% 1.48
Sporting Cristal over 6.5 corners 54.2% 53.1% 1.89
Sporting Cristal under 6.5 corners 45.8% 46.9% 2.13
Sporting Cristal under 5.5 corners 34.8% 32.3% 3.10
Sporting Cristal under 4.5 corners 24.0% 23.9% 4.19
Sporting Cristal under 3.5 corners 14.6% 14.8% 6.75
Sporting Cristal under 2.5 corners 7.4% 11.7% 8.54
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal over 0.5 goals 90.8% 92.2% 80.2% 1.15× 1.08
Sporting Cristal under 3.5 goals 78.3% 77.8% 92.4% 0.84× 1.29
Sporting Cristal over 1.5 goals 68.7% 67.9% 47.5% 1.43× 1.47
Sporting Cristal under 2.5 goals 57.5% 58.8% 77.5% 0.76× 1.70
Sporting Cristal over 2.5 goals 42.5% 41.2% 22.5% 1.83× 2.43
Sporting Cristal under 1.5 goals 31.3% 32.1% 52.5% 0.61× 3.11
Sporting Cristal over 3.5 goals 21.7% 22.2% 7.6% 2.91× 4.50
Sporting Cristal under 0.5 goals 9.2% 7.8% 19.8% 0.39× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal under 1.5 in 1st half 72.7% 79.9% 1.25
Sporting Cristal over 0.5 in 1st half 64.1% 64.8% 1.54
Sporting Cristal under 0.5 in 1st half 35.9% 35.2% 2.84
Sporting Cristal over 1.5 in 1st half 27.3% 20.1% 4.97
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 53.7% 51.6% 50.0% 1.03× 1.94
Los Chankas (home no bet) 46.3% 48.4% 50.0% 0.97× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal even goals 50.4% 50.6% 50.5% 1.00× 1.98
Sporting Cristal odd goals 49.6% 49.4% 49.5% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 1-0 24.2% 24.1% 4.14
HT 0-0 23.6% 24.1% 4.15
HT 2-0 12.4% 10.9% 9.16
HT 1-1 10.1% 10.9% 9.18
HT 0-1 9.9% 7.1% 14.01
Any other HT score 9.3% 7.1% 14.02
HT 2-1 5.2% 7.1% 14.08
HT 0-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.46
HT 1-2 2.1% 2.3% 43.45
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.3% 43.53
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal at HT / Sporting Cristal at FT 44.4% 43.5% 2.30
Draw at HT / Sporting Cristal at FT 19.1% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 9.6% 6.0% 16.60
Los Chankas at HT / Los Chankas at FT 7.7% 6.0% 16.66
Draw at HT / Los Chankas at FT 6.1% 6.0% 16.70
Sporting Cristal at HT / Draw at FT 4.3% 3.5% 28.79
Los Chankas at HT / Draw at FT 3.8% 3.5% 28.82
Los Chankas at HT / Sporting Cristal at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.83
Sporting Cristal at HT / Los Chankas at FT 1.4% 3.5% 28.91
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to score last 67.3% 70.2% 1.43
Los Chankas to score last 29.7% 27.3% 3.67
No goal scored 3.1% 4.3% 23.43
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 96.9% 95.7% 1.05
Sporting Cristal to lead by 1 at any time 78.9% 78.4% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 61.7% 61.3% 1.63
Sporting Cristal to lead by 2 at any time 52.1% 50.7% 1.97
Los Chankas to lead by 1 at any time 34.8% 29.5% 3.39
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 31.2% 29.4% 3.41
Sporting Cristal to lead by 3 at any time 28.7% 25.5% 3.92
Los Chankas to lead by 2 at any time 10.1% 10.4% 9.59
Los Chankas to lead by 3 at any time 2.5% 1.6% 61.87
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal most corners 76.6% 73.9% 1.35
Los Chankas most corners 16.4% 20.6% 4.86
Corners level 7.1% 8.4% 11.92
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 83.7% 83.5% 87.1% 0.96× 1.20
2-6 goals 79.5% 78.6% 70.9% 1.11× 1.27
2-5 goals 72.2% 72.4% 67.5% 1.07× 1.38
1-4 goals 70.8% 72.4% 78.0% 0.93× 1.38
3-6 goals 60.6% 63.4% 49.6% 1.28× 1.58
2-4 goals 59.4% 59.2% 58.4% 1.01× 1.69
3-5 goals 53.3% 53.2% 46.2% 1.15× 1.88
1-3 goals 52.1% 53.2% 63.8% 0.83× 1.88
2-3 goals 40.7% 43.6% 44.2% 0.99× 2.30
3-4 goals 40.5% 43.6% 37.1% 1.17× 2.30
4-6 goals 38.8% 39.2% 26.9% 1.46× 2.55
4-5 goals 31.5% 35.4% 23.5% 1.51× 2.83
1-2 goals 30.4% 35.4% 41.1% 0.86× 2.83
5-6 goals 20.2% 24.5% 12.7% 1.92× 4.09
7+ goals 5.9% 8.7% 1.8% 4.80× 11.46
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal never behind 62.1% 67.5% 1.48
Los Chankas never behind 18.0% 18.7% 5.34
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.7% 50.8% 46.9% 1.08× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.3% 49.2% 53.1% 0.93× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 52.7% 51.7% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 47.3% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 50.8% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 49.2% 48.0% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 96.9% 95.5% 92.2% 1.04× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 86.7% 87.6% 94.7% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 85.5% 87.6% 72.5% 1.21× 1.14
Under 4.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 85.6% 0.85× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 66.6% 66.2% 51.3% 1.29× 1.51
Under 3.5 goals 55.2% 58.8% 71.5% 0.82× 1.70
Over 3.5 goals 44.8% 41.2% 28.5% 1.44× 2.43
Under 2.5 goals 33.4% 33.8% 48.7% 0.69× 2.96
Over 4.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 14.4% 1.91× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 14.5% 12.4% 27.5% 0.45× 8.09
Over 5.5 goals 13.3% 12.4% 5.3% 2.34× 8.09
Under 0.5 goals 3.1% 4.5% 7.8% 0.58× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 93.6% 92.5% 98.1% 0.94× 1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 84.8% 81.1% 94.2% 0.86× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 82.1% 81.1% 65.1% 1.24× 1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 67.9% 67.4% 83.3% 0.81× 1.48
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 57.3% 55.4% 36.9% 1.50× 1.80
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 42.7% 44.6% 63.1% 0.71× 2.24
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 32.1% 32.6% 16.7% 1.95× 3.07
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 17.9% 18.9% 34.9% 0.54× 5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 15.2% 18.9% 5.8% 3.26× 5.29
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 6.4% 7.5% 1.9% 4.00× 13.27
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 82.3% 86.2% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 76.4% 78.7% 1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half 57.7% 62.7% 1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half 42.3% 37.3% 2.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half 23.6% 21.3% 4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half 17.7% 13.8% 7.26
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 86.3% 85.3% 1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 68.1% 67.6% 1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 59.0% 54.9% 1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 41.0% 45.1% 2.22
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 31.9% 32.4% 3.08
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 13.7% 14.7% 6.80
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to score in both halves 84.0% 84.4% 1.19
Sporting Cristal not to score in both halves 52.4% 55.7% 1.80
Sporting Cristal to score in both halves 47.6% 44.3% 2.26
Los Chankas to score in both halves 16.0% 15.6% 6.40
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 58.8% 58.4% 53.8% 1.09× 1.71
Only Sporting Cristal scores 32.0% 33.3% 26.5% 1.26× 3.00
Only Los Chankas scores 6.2% 7.2% 12.2% 0.59× 13.92
Neither team scores 3.1% 4.6% 7.8% 0.59× 21.86
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 21.8% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 18.9% 17.4% 21.5% 0.81× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 18.7% 17.4% 14.4% 1.21× 5.74
6 or more goals 13.3% 12.1% 5.3% 2.29× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 12.8% 12.1% 9.3% 1.30× 8.27
Exactly 1 goals 11.5% 12.1% 19.8% 0.61× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 3.1% 4.4% 7.8% 0.56× 22.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 59.0% 53.5% 1.87
1 goal in 2nd half 27.4% 29.8% 3.36
No goals in 2nd half 13.7% 14.5% 6.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to win both halves 97.4% 97.2% 1.03
Sporting Cristal not to win both halves 72.6% 72.7% 1.38
Sporting Cristal to win both halves 27.4% 27.3% 3.66
Los Chankas to win both halves 2.6% 2.8% 36.17
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal to win either half 77.4% 79.7% 1.25
Los Chankas to win neither half 70.3% 72.8% 1.37
Los Chankas to win either half 29.7% 27.2% 3.67
Sporting Cristal to win neither half 22.6% 20.3% 4.93
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Los Chankas not to win to nil 93.8% 92.1% 87.8% 1.05× 1.09
Sporting Cristal not to win to nil 68.0% 69.7% 73.5% 0.95× 1.44
Sporting Cristal to win to nil 32.0% 30.3% 26.5% 1.14× 3.30
Los Chankas to win to nil 6.2% 7.9% 12.2% 0.65× 12.60
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Cristal by 3+ 24.9% 24.2% 11.5% 2.11× 4.14
Sporting Cristal by 1 22.5% 24.1% 25.5% 0.95× 4.14
Sporting Cristal by 2 19.7% 16.9% 13.5% 1.26× 5.91
Draw 17.7% 16.9% 25.1% 0.67× 5.91
Los Chankas by 1 10.0% 7.3% 17.6% 0.41× 13.77
Los Chankas by 2 3.8% 2.7% 5.6% 0.48× 36.96
Los Chankas by 3+ 1.4% 2.7% 2.2% 1.24× 37.04
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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