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Sporting Kansas City v LAFC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · USA-MLS · 2627

USA-MLS results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sporting Kansas City win
19.3%
model 17.0%
Draw
21.5%
model 23.4%
LAFC win
59.2%
model 59.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (282 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 0-1 11.8%
  2. 0-2 11.2%
  3. 1-1 11.2%
  4. 1-2 9.8%
  5. 0-0 7.2%

Goals

Over 2.550.7% Under 2.549.3%
BTTS yes49.3% BTTS no50.7%
Sporting Kansas City 1+58.2% Sporting Kansas City 2+21.7%
LAFC 1+84.0% LAFC 2+54.6%

Expected goals 0.87 – 1.83. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
52/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
92%
★ Best pick
LAFC (-0.5)
Asian handicap · usually 30%
57.0% fair odds 1.76
strong signal · 920 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Sporting Kansas City not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.4% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 819 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • LAFC carry the stronger rating, 1570 Elo against 1302.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

LAFC have an estimated 59.2% win probability, against 21.5% for the draw and 19.3% for Sporting Kansas City. Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.87 for Sporting Kansas City and 1.83 for LAFC.

Why Sporting Kansas City

Nothing in the data singles out Sporting Kansas City.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 21.5%. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why LAFC can win

LAFC carry the stronger rating, 1570 Elo against 1302.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sporting Kansas City, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for LAFC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sporting Kansas City: 41% possession, 9.2 shots a match, 14.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. LAFC: 50% possession, 16.2 shots a match, 13.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

LAFC are the model's most likely outcome at 59.2%. The likeliest scoreline is 0-1 at 11.8%. Confidence 52/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.87–1.83 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.79–2.13 0-2 12% 56% 49%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to win 67.7% 65.1% 29.9% 2.18× 1.54
Draw 19.9% 19.4% 24.9% 0.78× 5.17
Sporting Kansas City to win 12.4% 13.3% 45.4% 0.29× 7.52
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC & not both score 39.4% 33.2% 12.3% 2.71× 3.01
LAFC & both teams score 28.3% 25.2% 17.8% 1.42× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 14.1% 13.3% 19.1% 0.69× 7.54
Sporting Kansas City & both teams score 6.2% 8.4% 24.4% 0.34× 11.94
Sporting Kansas City & not both score 6.1% 8.4% 21.1% 0.40× 11.94
Draw & not both score 5.8% 8.4% 5.8% 1.43× 11.94
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC & over 1.5 56.6% 54.9% 23.5% 2.34× 1.82
LAFC & over 2.5 44.4% 40.3% 20.3% 1.99× 2.48
LAFC & under 3.5 41.6% 40.3% 18.8% 2.15× 2.48
LAFC & over 3.5 26.1% 26.0% 11.2% 2.32× 3.84
LAFC & under 2.5 23.3% 21.7% 9.7% 2.22× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 15.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.3% 18.0% 16.0% 1.12× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 14.1% 12.9% 19.1% 0.67× 7.77
LAFC & under 1.5 11.1% 12.9% 6.5% 1.97× 7.77
Sporting Kansas City & under 3.5 9.7% 7.9% 28.3% 0.28× 12.69
Sporting Kansas City & over 1.5 8.5% 7.9% 37.1% 0.21× 12.69
Sporting Kansas City & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 30.9% 0.25× 12.70
Sporting Kansas City & under 2.5 5.6% 7.9% 14.5% 0.54× 12.70
Draw & under 1.5 5.8% 7.9% 5.8% 1.35× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 4.6% 4.8% 8.9% 0.53× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 4.6% 4.8% 8.9% 0.53× 20.93
Sporting Kansas City & under 1.5 3.9% 4.8% 8.4% 0.57× 20.94
Sporting Kansas City & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 17.2% 0.28× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (1UP) 77.8% 78.9% 1.27
Sporting Kansas City (1UP) 28.9% 27.1% 3.69
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (2UP) 67.7% 68.8% 1.45
Sporting Kansas City (2UP) 12.4% 13.3% 7.50
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to win 2nd half 57.1% 59.8% 1.67
2nd half drawn 29.9% 26.4% 3.79
Sporting Kansas City to win 2nd half 13.0% 12.3% 8.10
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (+2.5) 99.2% 96.3% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
LAFC (+1.5) 96.3% 96.3% 76.7% 1.25× 1.04
LAFC (+0.5) 87.6% 88.5% 54.6% 1.62× 1.13
LAFC (-0.5) 67.7% 68.7% 29.9% 2.30× 1.46
Sporting Kansas City (+0.5) 32.3% 31.3% 70.1% 0.45× 3.20
Sporting Kansas City (-0.5) 12.4% 11.5% 45.4% 0.25× 8.70
Sporting Kansas City (-1.5) 3.7% 3.7% 23.3% 0.16× 26.83
Sporting Kansas City (-2.5) 0.8% 3.7% 10.5% 0.35× 27.02
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to concede 54.8% 56.0% 82.0% 0.68× 1.78
LAFC clean sheet 45.2% 44.0% 18.0% 2.44× 2.28
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC clean sheet in 1st half 71.1% 77.3% 1.29
LAFC to concede in 1st half 28.9% 22.7% 4.40
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC over 2.5 corners 81.6% 81.5% 1.23
LAFC under 6.5 corners 73.2% 71.6% 1.40
LAFC over 3.5 corners 67.6% 67.5% 1.48
LAFC under 5.5 corners 61.4% 61.8% 1.62
LAFC over 4.5 corners 52.6% 53.1% 1.88
LAFC under 4.5 corners 47.4% 46.9% 2.13
LAFC over 5.5 corners 38.6% 38.2% 2.62
LAFC under 3.5 corners 32.4% 32.5% 3.08
LAFC over 6.5 corners 26.8% 28.4% 3.52
LAFC under 2.5 corners 18.4% 18.5% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC over 0.5 goals 88.1% 87.9% 73.2% 1.20× 1.14
LAFC under 3.5 goals 83.4% 81.4% 93.9% 0.87× 1.23
LAFC under 2.5 goals 64.3% 63.0% 83.3% 0.76× 1.59
LAFC over 1.5 goals 62.7% 63.0% 38.7% 1.63× 1.59
LAFC under 1.5 goals 37.3% 37.0% 61.3% 0.60× 2.70
LAFC over 2.5 goals 35.7% 37.0% 16.7% 2.21× 2.70
LAFC over 3.5 goals 16.6% 18.6% 6.1% 3.06× 5.38
LAFC under 0.5 goals 11.9% 12.1% 26.8% 0.45× 8.26
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC under 1.5 in 1st half 79.1% 76.2% 1.31
LAFC over 0.5 in 1st half 57.3% 62.3% 1.60
LAFC under 0.5 in 1st half 42.7% 37.7% 2.66
LAFC over 1.5 in 1st half 20.9% 23.8% 4.20
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 61.7% 62.1% 35.4% 1.75× 1.61
Sporting Kansas City (away no bet) 38.3% 37.9% 64.6% 0.59× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC even goals 50.7% 52.8% 53.6% 0.98× 1.89
LAFC odd goals 49.3% 47.2% 46.4% 1.02× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 82.8% 82.9% 1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals 17.2% 17.1% 5.86
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 67.9% 68.7% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 32.1% 31.3% 3.19
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 63.6% 60.0% 1.67
LAFC to score 2+ in a row 56.3% 55.1% 1.82
Either team to score 3+ in a row 29.8% 25.1% 3.98
LAFC to score 3+ in a row 27.9% 25.1% 3.99
Sporting Kansas City to score 2+ in a row 12.0% 12.2% 8.22
Sporting Kansas City to score 3+ in a row 2.0% 2.5% 39.33
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC corners (+3.5) 84.4% 79.7% 1.25
Sporting Kansas City corners (+3.5) 80.6% 79.7% 1.25
LAFC corners (+2.5) 77.3% 74.9% 1.34
Sporting Kansas City corners (+2.5) 72.6% 70.7% 1.41
LAFC corners (+1.5) 68.5% 65.8% 1.52
Sporting Kansas City corners (+1.5) 63.1% 61.9% 1.62
LAFC corners (-1.5) 36.9% 38.1% 2.63
Sporting Kansas City corners (-1.5) 31.5% 34.2% 2.92
LAFC corners (-2.5) 27.4% 29.3% 3.42
Sporting Kansas City corners (-2.5) 22.7% 25.1% 3.98
LAFC corners (-3.5) 19.4% 20.3% 4.93
Sporting Kansas City corners (-3.5) 15.6% 20.3% 4.94
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 40.3% 38.6% 2.59
12+ corners 30.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 29.5% 31.2% 3.20
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 77.4% 76.5% 1.31
Over 7.5 corners 70.1% 72.6% 1.38
Under 11.5 corners 69.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 10.5 corners 60.8% 63.4% 1.58
Over 8.5 corners 59.7% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 50.8% 53.3% 1.88
Over 9.5 corners 49.2% 46.7% 2.14
Under 8.5 corners 40.3% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 39.2% 36.6% 2.73
Over 11.5 corners 30.2% 32.3% 3.10
Under 7.5 corners 29.9% 27.4% 3.65
Over 12.5 corners 22.6% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-2 12.2% 11.5% 3.3% 3.45× 8.73
0-1 11.1% 11.5% 6.5% 1.75× 8.73
0-3 8.6% 7.4% 1.8% 4.05× 13.48
1-1 9.5% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.48
1-2 9.7% 7.4% 7.4% 1.00× 13.48
1-3 6.9% 7.4% 3.4% 2.16× 13.48
Any other score 6.6% 7.4% 4.7% 1.58× 13.48
0-0 5.8% 7.4% 5.8% 1.27× 13.48
0-4 4.6% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.46
1-0 3.9% 1.7% 8.4% 0.20× 58.47
1-4 3.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.24× 58.47
2-0 1.7% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.48
2-1 3.6% 1.7% 9.9% 0.17× 58.47
2-2 3.8% 1.7% 6.1% 0.28× 58.47
2-3 2.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.47
2-4 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.00× 58.48
3-0 0.5% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.49
3-1 1.0% 1.7% 4.9% 0.35× 58.48
3-2 1.0% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.48
3-3 0.7% 1.7% 2.6% 0.65× 58.49
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.7% 2.49× 58.49
4-0 0.1% 1.7% 1.3% 1.36× 58.49
4-1 0.2% 1.7% 2.4% 0.71× 58.49
4-2 0.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.07× 58.49
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.73× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC leading at HT (DNB) 76.6% 77.8% 1.29
Sporting Kansas City leading at HT (DNB) 23.4% 22.2% 4.51
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC or draw (X2) 87.6% 86.7% 54.6% 1.59× 1.15
Sporting Kansas City or LAFC (12) 80.1% 80.6% 75.1% 1.07× 1.24
Sporting Kansas City or draw (1X) 32.3% 34.9% 70.1% 0.50× 2.86
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC or draw at HT 85.9% 88.0% 1.14
Sporting Kansas City or LAFC at HT 60.0% 62.0% 1.61
Sporting Kansas City or draw at HT 54.0% 47.7% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC or draw (1UP) 87.6% 91.8% 1.09
Sporting Kansas City or draw (1UP) 32.3% 38.8% 2.58
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC or draw in 2nd half 87.0% 87.7% 1.14
Sporting Kansas City or LAFC in 2nd half 70.1% 73.6% 1.36
Sporting Kansas City or draw in 2nd half 42.9% 40.2% 2.49
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 57.5% 58.0% 1.72
Neither half drawn 42.5% 42.0% 2.38
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (DNB) 84.5% 80.6% 39.7% 2.03× 1.24
Sporting Kansas City (DNB) 15.5% 19.4% 60.3% 0.32× 5.16
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to score first 68.6% 69.5% 1.44
Sporting Kansas City to score first 25.6% 28.0% 3.57
No goal scored 5.8% 7.5% 13.41
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 51.4% 51.4% 38.9% 1.32× 1.95
Both teams to score 48.7% 48.6% 61.1% 0.80× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 39.1% 38.5% 50.9% 0.76× 2.60
Not both score & under 2.5 34.7% 34.3% 29.9% 1.15× 2.92
Not both score & over 2.5 16.7% 21.7% 9.2% 2.37× 4.61
Both score & under 2.5 9.5% 8.4% 10.3% 0.81× 11.95
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 88.1% 85.6% 79.5% 1.08× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 11.9% 14.4% 20.5% 0.70× 6.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 73.6% 74.1% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 26.4% 25.9% 3.87
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 61.3% 66.3% 1.51
Both score 2nd half only 22.0% 20.8% 4.81
Both score 1st half only 12.3% 10.7% 9.31
Both score in both halves 4.3% 5.0% 19.82
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 83.4% 82.4% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 16.6% 17.6% 5.69
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 57.5% 57.3% 1.75
A half without a goal 42.5% 42.7% 2.34
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.8% 47.4% 42.5% 1.12× 2.11
4-6 goals 30.5% 30.7% 33.1% 0.93× 3.25
0-1 goals 20.8% 22.8% 20.5% 1.11× 4.39
7+ goals 2.9% 1.8% 4.1% 0.45× 54.50
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to score 3+ 35.7% 36.0% 16.7% 2.15× 2.78
LAFC to score exactly 2 27.0% 27.4% 22.1% 1.24× 3.65
LAFC to score exactly 1 25.4% 27.4% 34.6% 0.79× 3.65
LAFC to score exactly 0 11.9% 12.8% 26.8% 0.48× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City to score exactly 0 45.2% 36.7% 18.0% 2.04× 2.72
Sporting Kansas City to score exactly 1 35.9% 35.6% 31.0% 1.15× 2.81
Sporting Kansas City to score exactly 2 14.2% 14.3% 26.0% 0.55× 6.98
Sporting Kansas City to score 3+ 4.7% 6.2% 25.2% 0.25× 16.12
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC leading at HT 46.0% 52.3% 1.91
Draw at HT 40.0% 38.0% 2.63
Sporting Kansas City leading at HT 14.1% 12.0% 8.35
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC -1: 2 43.8% 42.8% 2.34
LAFC -1: 1 32.3% 30.1% 3.33
LAFC -1: X 23.9% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (0:1) 87.6% 89.2% 54.6% 1.63× 1.12
Draw (0:1) 8.7% 9.2% 22.2% 0.42× 10.84
Sporting Kansas City (0:1) 3.7% 5.8% 23.3% 0.25× 17.28
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (0:2) 96.3% 94.1% 76.7% 1.23× 1.06
Draw (0:2) 2.9% 3.8% 12.8% 0.29× 26.59
Sporting Kansas City (0:2) 0.8% 3.7% 10.5% 0.36× 26.71
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (0:3) 99.2% 96.6% 89.5% 1.08× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 0.7% 2.4% 6.6% 0.36× 42.24
Sporting Kansas City (0:3) 0.1% 2.4% 4.0% 0.59× 42.26
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (0:4) 99.9% 98.1% 96.0% 1.02× 1.02
Sporting Kansas City (0:4) 0.0% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.68
Draw (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 2.1% 0.58× 83.67
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (1:0) 43.8% 43.1% 13.2% 3.27× 2.32
Sporting Kansas City (1:0) 32.3% 30.4% 70.1% 0.43× 3.29
Draw (1:0) 23.9% 21.8% 16.8% 1.29× 4.59
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City (2:0) 56.2% 62.5% 86.8% 0.72× 1.60
LAFC (2:0) 23.1% 19.4% 4.6% 4.23× 5.16
Draw (2:0) 20.7% 19.1% 8.7% 2.20× 5.22
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.6% 48.2% 2.08
1st half highest scoring 26.1% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.3% 24.1% 4.14
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City to concede 88.1% 86.1% 73.2% 1.18× 1.16
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet 11.9% 13.9% 26.8% 0.52× 7.21
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City to concede in 1st half 57.3% 62.3% 1.60
Sporting Kansas City clean sheet in 1st half 42.7% 37.7% 2.66
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City over 2.5 corners 79.0% 76.6% 1.31
Sporting Kansas City under 6.5 corners 76.8% 76.6% 1.31
Sporting Kansas City under 5.5 corners 65.6% 66.6% 1.50
Sporting Kansas City over 3.5 corners 64.0% 62.3% 1.61
Sporting Kansas City under 4.5 corners 51.6% 52.8% 1.90
Sporting Kansas City over 4.5 corners 48.4% 47.2% 2.12
Sporting Kansas City under 3.5 corners 36.0% 37.7% 2.65
Sporting Kansas City over 5.5 corners 34.4% 33.4% 3.00
Sporting Kansas City over 6.5 corners 23.2% 23.4% 4.27
Sporting Kansas City under 2.5 corners 21.0% 23.4% 4.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City under 3.5 goals 99.1% 96.4% 90.6% 1.06× 1.04
Sporting Kansas City under 2.5 goals 95.3% 96.4% 74.8% 1.29× 1.04
Sporting Kansas City under 1.5 goals 81.1% 82.1% 48.9% 1.68× 1.22
Sporting Kansas City over 0.5 goals 54.8% 53.3% 82.0% 0.65× 1.88
Sporting Kansas City under 0.5 goals 45.2% 46.7% 18.0% 2.60× 2.14
Sporting Kansas City over 1.5 goals 18.9% 17.9% 51.1% 0.35× 5.59
Sporting Kansas City over 2.5 goals 4.7% 3.6% 25.2% 0.14× 27.41
Sporting Kansas City over 3.5 goals 0.9% 3.6% 9.4% 0.39× 27.57
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City under 1.5 in 1st half 95.3% 96.8% 1.03
Sporting Kansas City under 0.5 in 1st half 71.1% 79.7% 1.26
Sporting Kansas City over 0.5 in 1st half 28.9% 20.3% 4.92
Sporting Kansas City over 1.5 in 1st half 4.7% 3.2% 31.44
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC (home no bet) 77.2% 78.8% 54.6% 1.44× 1.27
Draw (home no bet) 22.8% 21.2% 45.4% 0.47× 4.72
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City even goals 60.2% 55.9% 51.0% 1.10× 1.79
Sporting Kansas City odd goals 39.8% 44.1% 49.0% 0.90× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 30.4% 32.2% 3.11
HT 0-1 25.8% 28.8% 3.47
HT 0-2 11.0% 10.9% 9.17
HT 1-0 10.3% 10.9% 9.18
HT 1-1 8.9% 7.1% 14.02
Any other HT score 6.0% 7.1% 14.07
HT 1-2 3.7% 2.3% 43.33
HT 2-0 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-1 1.5% 2.3% 43.50
HT 2-2 0.6% 2.3% 43.56
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC at HT / LAFC at FT 41.6% 43.1% 2.32
Draw at HT / LAFC at FT 22.6% 21.8% 4.59
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 12.4% 12.7% 7.89
Sporting Kansas City at HT / Sporting Kansas City at FT 6.6% 6.0% 16.69
Draw at HT / Sporting Kansas City at FT 5.0% 6.0% 16.74
Sporting Kansas City at HT / Draw at FT 4.0% 3.5% 28.81
Sporting Kansas City at HT / LAFC at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.83
LAFC at HT / Draw at FT 3.5% 3.5% 28.83
LAFC at HT / Sporting Kansas City at FT 0.8% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to score last 68.7% 70.4% 1.42
Sporting Kansas City to score last 25.5% 26.8% 3.74
No goal scored 5.8% 7.5% 13.41
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.2% 92.6% 1.08
LAFC to lead by 1 at any time 77.8% 78.2% 1.28
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 56.4% 55.1% 1.82
LAFC to lead by 2 at any time 49.7% 44.1% 2.27
Sporting Kansas City to lead by 1 at any time 28.9% 25.5% 3.92
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 27.2% 25.4% 3.93
LAFC to lead by 3 at any time 25.9% 25.4% 3.94
Sporting Kansas City to lead by 2 at any time 6.9% 6.6% 15.08
Sporting Kansas City to lead by 3 at any time 1.4% 1.6% 62.98
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC most corners 47.5% 46.9% 2.13
Sporting Kansas City most corners 41.7% 43.5% 2.30
Corners level 10.8% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.6% 87.4% 83.2% 1.05× 1.14
1-4 goals 77.1% 78.6% 73.1% 1.08× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.3% 78.6% 75.5% 1.04× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.7% 72.4% 68.5% 1.06× 1.38
2-4 goals 62.1% 63.4% 58.4% 1.09× 1.58
1-3 goals 60.8% 63.4% 57.2% 1.11× 1.58
3-6 goals 52.9% 53.2% 55.9% 0.95× 1.88
3-5 goals 48.3% 48.7% 48.9% 0.99× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.8% 48.7% 42.5% 1.14× 2.06
3-4 goals 38.7% 39.2% 38.8% 1.01× 2.55
1-2 goals 38.4% 39.2% 34.4% 1.14× 2.55
4-6 goals 30.5% 35.4% 33.1% 1.07× 2.83
4-5 goals 25.9% 30.2% 26.1% 1.16× 3.31
5-6 goals 14.2% 14.9% 17.2% 0.87× 6.72
7+ goals 2.9% 2.6% 4.1% 0.62× 39.20
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC never behind 65.3% 69.8% 1.43
Sporting Kansas City never behind 16.4% 18.5% 5.40
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.8% 50.2% 1.01× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.9% 49.2% 49.8% 0.99× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.7% 51.7% 1.93
Odd goals in 1st half 45.3% 48.3% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.9% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.1% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 94.2% 0.98× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 88.9% 1.04× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 82.9% 82.4% 78.8% 1.05× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 79.2% 77.4% 79.5% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 66.5% 66.2% 62.9% 1.05× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 55.8% 58.8% 59.9% 0.98× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 44.2% 41.2% 40.1% 1.03× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 33.5% 33.8% 37.1% 0.91× 2.96
Under 1.5 goals 20.8% 22.6% 20.5% 1.10× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 17.1% 17.6% 21.2% 0.83× 5.68
Over 5.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 11.1% 0.70× 12.92
Under 0.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 5.8% 1.32× 12.93
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.9% 97.2% 95.6% 1.02× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 91.6% 92.5% 87.6% 1.05× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 79.5% 75.9% 74.8% 1.02× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 72.9% 72.6% 74.5% 0.97× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 56.9% 55.4% 51.9% 1.07× 1.80
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 43.1% 44.6% 48.1% 0.93× 2.24
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 27.1% 27.4% 25.5% 1.08× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 20.5% 24.1% 25.2% 0.95× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 8.4% 7.5% 12.4% 0.61× 13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.1% 2.8% 4.4% 0.62× 36.13
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.1% 89.0% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 69.6% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 66.5% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 33.5% 31.0% 3.22
Under 0.5 in 1st half 30.4% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.9% 11.0% 9.09
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 82.1% 82.8% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 75.0% 79.7% 1.26
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 51.7% 53.2% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 48.3% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 25.0% 20.3% 4.92
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.9% 17.2% 5.82
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City not to score in both halves 89.5% 85.9% 1.16
LAFC not to score in both halves 58.7% 57.7% 1.73
LAFC to score in both halves 41.3% 42.3% 2.36
Sporting Kansas City to score in both halves 10.5% 14.1% 7.11
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 48.7% 50.5% 61.1% 0.83× 1.98
Only LAFC scores 39.4% 39.9% 12.3% 3.25× 2.51
Only Sporting Kansas City scores 6.1% 7.2% 21.1% 0.34× 13.92
Neither team scores 5.8% 7.2% 5.8% 1.23× 13.92
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.4% 22.6% 19.7% 1.15× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 22.9% 0.99× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.3% 17.4% 16.0% 1.09× 5.74
Exactly 1 goals 15.0% 12.1% 14.8% 0.82× 8.27
Exactly 5 goals 9.5% 7.6% 10.2% 0.75× 13.08
6 or more goals 7.6% 7.6% 11.1% 0.69× 13.08
Exactly 0 goals 5.8% 7.6% 5.8% 1.31× 13.09
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 51.7% 51.3% 1.95
1 goal in 2nd half 30.4% 33.4% 3.00
No goals in 2nd half 17.9% 17.2% 5.83
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City not to win both halves 98.1% 97.3% 1.03
LAFC not to win both halves 73.7% 72.9% 1.37
LAFC to win both halves 26.3% 27.1% 3.69
Sporting Kansas City to win both halves 1.9% 2.7% 36.49
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC to win either half 76.7% 79.6% 1.26
Sporting Kansas City to win neither half 74.8% 73.1% 1.37
Sporting Kansas City to win either half 25.2% 26.9% 3.72
LAFC to win neither half 23.3% 20.4% 4.91
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sporting Kansas City not to win to nil 93.9% 92.1% 78.9% 1.17× 1.09
LAFC not to win to nil 60.6% 66.7% 87.7% 0.76× 1.50
LAFC to win to nil 39.4% 33.3% 12.3% 2.72× 3.00
Sporting Kansas City to win to nil 6.1% 7.9% 21.1% 0.38× 12.60
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
LAFC by 1 23.9% 24.2% 16.8% 1.43× 4.14
LAFC by 3+ 23.1% 24.1% 4.6% 5.27× 4.14
LAFC by 2 20.7% 24.1% 8.7% 2.77× 4.14
Draw 19.9% 16.9% 24.9% 0.68× 5.91
Sporting Kansas City by 1 8.7% 7.3% 22.2% 0.33× 13.78
Sporting Kansas City by 2 2.9% 2.7% 12.8% 0.21× 36.99
Sporting Kansas City by 3+ 0.8% 2.7% 10.5% 0.26× 37.06
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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