St. Pauli v Borussia M.Gladbach — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 1 November 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
16 – 15
On target
4 – 11
Shots in box
7 – 10
xG per shot
0.05 – 0.26
Set-piece xG
0.20 – 0.61
Goals − xG
-0.80 – +0.08
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
39.1%
Draw
28.2%
Borussia M.Gladbach win
32.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Borussia M.Gladbach are conceding fewer than expected — 3.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDLDDWLWLL last 10
scored 15
from 14.1 xG
conceded 17
from 20.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.31–1.17 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.35–1.32 | 1-1 12% | 50% | 54% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 0.80 xGBorussia M.Gladbach 3.92 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Borussia M.Gladbach attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Borussia M.Gladbach |
Franck Honorat | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 14' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Florian Neuhaus |
| 24' |
 St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 24' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 25' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Oladapo Afolayan |
| 26' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Joe Scally | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Moritz Nicolas |
| 26' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Eric Smith |
| 39' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Franck Honorat |
| 45' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 46' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 47' |
St. Pauli |
Abdoulie Ceesay | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 50' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 51' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Hauke Wahl |
| 52' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Lukas Ullrich | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Rocco Reitz |
| 53' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | James Sands |
| 54' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.07 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 55' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.55 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Franck Honorat |
| 60' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 65' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 69' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Rocco Reitz | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Neuhaus |
| 70' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Martijn Kaars |
| 70' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 70' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 71' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Yannick Engelhardt | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Florian Neuhaus |
| 74' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Haris Tabakovic |
| 78' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Lukas Ullrich |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Oscar Fraulo | 0.74 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 79' |
Borussia M.Gladbach |
Shuto Machino | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Giovanni Reyna |
| 82' |
St. Pauli |
Louis Oppie | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 89' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
St. Pauli |
Connor Metcalfe | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Borussia M.Gladbach
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yannick Engelhardt MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.64 |
| Lukas Ullrich DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.06 | 1.08 |
| Philipp Sander DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| Nico Elvedi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Kevin Diks DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.03 |
| Moritz Nicolas GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1.03 |
| Haris Tabakovic FW | 89 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1.76 | 0.34 | 1.58 |
| Rocco Reitz MC | 89 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.97 |
| Florian Neuhaus AMC | 83 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.59 | 1.15 |
| Joe Scally DMR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Franck Honorat AMC | 61 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.05 | 1.25 | 0.75 |
| Shuto Machino Sub | 29 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.79 |
| Oscar Fraulo Sub | 8 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Giovanni Reyna Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.40 |
| Kevin Stöger Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jan Urbich Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Louis Oppie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.32 | 0.44 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.20 |
| Joel Chima Fujita MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.12 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Manolis Saliakas DMR | 88 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| James Sands MC | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.08 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 |
| Danel Sinani FW | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.08 |
| Oladapo Afolayan AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.08 |
| Abdoulie Ceesay Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.34 |
| Andréas Hountondji Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.10 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| Jackson Irvine Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |