St. Pauli v FC Cologne — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 17 April 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
13 – 10
On target
5 – 1
Shots in box
8 – 6
xG per shot
0.18 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
1.74 – 0.81
Goals − xG
-1.31 – -0.27
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
26.4%
Draw
27.0%
FC Cologne win
46.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
FC Cologne are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.6 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
DDWDLDLLWL last 10
scored 18
from 22.3 xG
conceded 25
from 19.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–1.40 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.23–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 46% | 51% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 2.31 xGFC Cologne 1.27 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
FC Cologne attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 FC Cologne |
Jakub Kaminski | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 5' |
FC Cologne |
Alessio Castro-Montes | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ragnar Ache |
| 8' |
 St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 9' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.48 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Tomoya Ando |
| 9' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 26' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 32' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lars Ritzka |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Lars Ritzka | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 38' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 44' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 45' |
FC Cologne |
Jan Thielmann | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Eric Martel | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson |
| 53' |
FC Cologne |
Said El Mala | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Alessio Castro-Montes |
| 55' |
St. Pauli |
Andréas Hountondji | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Mathias Rasmussen |
| 56' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.17 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 57' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.06 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 65' |
St. Pauli |
Mathias Rasmussen | 0.50 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pereira Lage |
| 68' |
St. Pauli |
Karol Mets | 0.46 | From Corner | — | Goal | Hauke Wahl |
| 85' |
FC Cologne |
Gian-Luca Waldschmidt | 0.76 | Left Foot | Goal | — | |
| 92' |
FC Cologne |
Cenk Özkacar | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jakub Kaminski |
| 94' |
St. Pauli |
Manolis Saliakas | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Irvine |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Rasmussen MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.50 | 0.06 | 0.41 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.46 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.48 | 0.35 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 0.35 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.47 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.22 | 0.41 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.50 | 0.03 |
| Andréas Hountondji FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.89 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Lars Ritzka DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.35 | 0.47 |
| Manolis Saliakas Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Cologne
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said El Mala FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Eric Martel MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Jakub Kaminski ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 0.19 |
| Cenk Özkacar DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Marvin Schwäbe GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Jahmai Simpson-Pusey DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ísak Bergmann Jóhannesson MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.19 |
| Sebastian Sebulonsen DR | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Alessio Castro-Montes DL | 70 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.13 |
| Ragnar Ache FW | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.17 |
| Jan Thielmann MR | 46 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Linton Maina Sub | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Kristoffer Lund Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gian-Luca Waldschmidt Sub | 11 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Felipe Chávez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |