St. Pauli v FC Heidenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 20
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
7 – 14
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.10
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.17
Goals − xG
+1.00 – -0.95
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
41.7%
Draw
30.2%
FC Heidenheim win
28.1%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
FC Heidenheim have scored 19 from 17.3 expected and conceded 19 from 18.3 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
LLDDWLWDWL last 10
scored 19
from 17.3 xG
conceded 19
from 18.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.23–0.96 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.48–1.05 | 1-1 12% | 46% | 50% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 1.00 xGFC Heidenheim 1.95 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
FC Heidenheim attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9' |
 FC Heidenheim |
Thomas Keller | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 12' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Adrian Beck |
| 17' |
 St. Pauli |
James Sands | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 17' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 18' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 21' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 28' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 30' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 34' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Adrian Beck | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 46' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marnon Busch |
| 52' |
St. Pauli |
Martijn Kaars | 0.15 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 57' |
FC Heidenheim |
Julian Niehues | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Marvin Pieringer |
| 61' |
FC Heidenheim |
Arijon Ibrahimovic | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 62' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marvin Pieringer | 0.85 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Stefan Schimmer |
| 63' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 66' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Jonas Föhrenbach |
| 74' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 76' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
FC Heidenheim |
Jonas Föhrenbach | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Omar Traoré |
| 81' |
FC Heidenheim |
Patrick Mainka | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Arijon Ibrahimovic |
| 82' |
FC Heidenheim |
Omar Traoré | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Stefan Schimmer |
| 88' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 88' |
FC Heidenheim |
Niklas Dorsch | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Föhrenbach |
| 90' |
FC Heidenheim |
Marnon Busch | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jonas Föhrenbach |
| 90' |
FC Heidenheim |
Stefan Schimmer | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Patrick Mainka |
| 91' |
FC Heidenheim |
Mathias Honsak | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
Players
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.39 | 0.47 |
| James Sands MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.65 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.38 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 0.00 | 0.39 | 0.49 |
| Karol Mets DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Louis Oppie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Martijn Kaars FW | 80 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.74 |
| Eric Smith DC | 44 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.54 |
| Adam Dzwigala Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Ricky-Jade Jones Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
FC Heidenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marvin Pieringer FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.93 | 0.05 | 1.11 |
| Arijon Ibrahimovic AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.45 |
| Patrick Mainka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.09 | 0.33 |
| Jonas Föhrenbach DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.02 | 0.15 | 0.50 |
| Marnon Busch DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.01 | 0.32 | 0.66 |
| Diant Ramaj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Julian Niehues MC | 82 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Adrian Beck AMC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.44 |
| Tim Siersleben DC | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.37 |
| Thomas Keller DC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Jan Schöppner MC | 50 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Stefan Schimmer Sub | 40 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0.58 | 0.97 | 1.56 |
| Omar Traoré Sub | 40 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.39 |
| Mathias Honsak Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Mikkel Kaufmann Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niklas Dorsch Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.10 |