St. Pauli v Freiburg — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 22 March 2026 · GER-Bundesliga · 2526
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 15
On target
5 – 6
Shots in box
7 – 13
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.19
Set-piece xG
0.73 – 0.05
Goals − xG
-0.41 – -0.84
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.St. Pauli win
27.9%
Draw
31.0%
Freiburg win
41.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLLDLDLLLL last 10
scored 6
from 10.7 xG
conceded 20
from 22.8 xG
Freiburg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWWLDLWWW last 10
scored 19
from 15.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.98–1.24 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.07–1.29 | 1-1 13% | 42% | 48% | Away ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
St. Pauli 1.41 xGFreiburg 2.84 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
St. Pauli attacking right
Freiburg attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Freiburg |
Jan-Niklas Beste | 0.16 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 5' |
 St. Pauli |
Mathias Rasmussen | 0.08 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Eric Smith |
| 17' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 17' |
St. Pauli |
Joel Chima Fujita | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
St. Pauli |
Mathias Rasmussen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 23' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.63 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | Tomoya Ando |
| 23' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 36' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arkadiusz Pyrka |
| 38' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.18 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Matthias Ginter |
| 43' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.51 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 44' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Vincenzo Grifo |
| 47' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Jordy Makengo |
| 51' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
St. Pauli |
Hauke Wahl | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 54' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Cyriaque Irié |
| 55' |
Freiburg |
Yuito Suzuki | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cyriaque Irié |
| 62' |
St. Pauli |
Lars Ritzka | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 64' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.44 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 64' |
Freiburg |
Vincenzo Grifo | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Igor Matanovic |
| 68' |
St. Pauli |
Pereira Lage | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 69' |
St. Pauli |
Tomoya Ando | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joel Chima Fujita |
| 77' |
Freiburg |
Cyriaque Irié | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yuito Suzuki |
| 77' |
Freiburg |
Igor Matanovic | 0.65 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.14 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Lucas Höler |
| 86' |
Freiburg |
Johan Manzambi | 0.38 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 95' |
St. Pauli |
Arkadiusz Pyrka | 0.32 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Louis Oppie |
| 97' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Hauke Wahl |
Players
Freiburg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Manzambi DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.00 | 0.73 |
| Yuito Suzuki AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 0.56 | 0.29 | 1.02 |
| Jordy Makengo DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.14 |
| Philipp Treu DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Matthias Ginter DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 0.25 |
| Maximilian Eggestein DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Noah Atubolu GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Igor Matanovic FW | 87 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 1.24 | 0.03 | 1.44 |
| Vincenzo Grifo AML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.05 | 0.30 |
| Jan-Niklas Beste AMR | 47 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Bruno Ogbus DC | 47 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cyriaque Irié Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.05 | 0.08 | 0.13 |
| Philipp Lienhart Sub | 43 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Derry Scherhant Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Lucas Höler Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.14 |
| Patrick Osterhage Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danel Sinani FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Arkadiusz Pyrka DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.04 | 0.23 |
| Tomoya Ando DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.63 | 0.13 |
| Joel Chima Fujita AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.24 |
| Eric Smith DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.44 |
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathias Rasmussen MC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Pereira Lage AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| Lars Ritzka DML | 69 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Louis Oppie Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.49 |
| Andréas Hountondji Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Connor Metcalfe Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martijn Kaars Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |