St. Pauli v Hoffenheim — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Friday 14 March 2025 · GER-Bundesliga · 2425
Bundesliga
xG Prediction generated
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
Hoffenheim are finishing below their chances — 2.9 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.0 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.34–0.95 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Expected goals by minute
Reading the shot map
Shot map
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Hoffenheim |
Gift Orban | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 3' |
 St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 6' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Manolis Saliakas |
| 26' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jackson Irvine |
| 27' |
St. Pauli |
Siebe Van der Heyden | 0.37 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 37' |
St. Pauli |
Danel Sinani | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Eric Smith |
| 50' |
St. Pauli |
Noah Weißhaupt | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Philipp Treu |
| 55' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.05 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 57' |
St. Pauli |
Eric Smith | 0.10 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.20 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 61' |
Hoffenheim |
Haris Tabakovic | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pavel Kaderábek |
| 71' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
| 78' |
St. Pauli |
Jackson Irvine | 0.07 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Danel Sinani |
| 83' |
Hoffenheim |
Bazoumana Touré | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Andrej Kramaric |
Players
Hoffenheim
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrej Kramaric AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |
| Kevin Akpoguma DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Oliver Baumann GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Leo Østigard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Tom Bischof AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Anton Stach DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| David Jurásek DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Pavel Kaderábek DR | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.09 |
| Finn Becker DMC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Gift Orban FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Umut Tohumcu AML | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Haris Tabakovic Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.15 |
| Marius Bülter Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bazoumana Touré Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Valentin Gendrey Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Erencan Yardimci Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
St. Pauli
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Irvine MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.03 | 0.07 |
| Eric Smith MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| David Nemeth DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Hauke Wahl DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Philipp Treu ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Nikola Vasilj GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Manolis Saliakas MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |
| Danel Sinani AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.07 | 0.69 | 0.07 |
| Noah Weißhaupt FW | 74 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Siebe Van der Heyden DC | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.37 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Elias Saad FW | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Lars Ritzka Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oladapo Afolayan Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Johannes Eggestein Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlo Boukhalfa Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |