St. Pauli v Karlsruher SC — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · GER-2. Bundesliga · 2627

GER-2. Bundesliga results-only Prediction generated 7 Sep 2026, 02:03

St. Pauli

14:00

Karlsruher SC

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 5 Sep, 22:23 · 836h before kick-off

St. Pauli win

38.3%

model 39.5%

Draw

23.3%

model 24.5%

Karlsruher SC win

38.3%

model 36.0%

382338

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (5,276 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 11.1%
2-1 8.6%
1-2 8.2%
1-0 6.7%
2-2 6.5%

Goals

Over 2.5	60.2%	Under 2.5	39.8%
BTTS yes	62.6%	BTTS no	37.4%
St. Pauli 1+	79.8%	St. Pauli 2+	47.5%
Karlsruher SC 1+	78.0%	Karlsruher SC 2+	44.8%

Expected goals 1.60 – 1.52. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

22/100

Data quality

55/100

Model agreement

99%

★ Best pick

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

★ Most likely to land

Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

Nothing in the data singles out St. Pauli.

Risk factors

Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
The model's measured edge in this competition is 0.0041 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.

Why the model thinks this

The price

St. Pauli have an estimated 38.3% win probability, against 38.3% for Karlsruher SC and 23.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.60 for St. Pauli and 1.52 for Karlsruher SC.

Why St. Pauli

Nothing in the data singles out St. Pauli.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 23.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.60 to 1.52. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Karlsruher SC can win

Karlsruher SC carry the stronger rating, 1454 Elo against 1319.

Key players

St. Pauli's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danel Sinani (0.27), Ricky-Jade Jones (0.26), Andréas Hountondji (0.26).

Availability

2 of St. Pauli's top three contributors did not start their last match. No lineup on record for Karlsruher SC, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

St. Pauli: 45% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 15.0 faced, 0.56 xG a match from set pieces. Karlsruher SC: 52% possession, 15.8 shots a match, 15.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. St. Pauli's shot volume meets a defence that concedes shots freely.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

St. Pauli are the model's most likely outcome at 38.3%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 11.1%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

St. Pauli are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

DLLDLDLLLL last 10 scored 6 from 10.7 xG conceded 20 from 22.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
dc-xg	412435	1.71–1.58	1-1 10%	64%	65%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to win	40.8%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Karlsruher SC to win	35.5%	36.4%	31.2%	1.17×	2.75
Draw	23.7%	24.5%	25.9%	0.94×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli & both teams score	24.3%	21.9%	22.2%	0.99×	4.57
Karlsruher SC & both teams score	21.4%	21.9%	18.1%	1.21×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.6%	17.9%	19.7%	0.91×	5.58
St. Pauli & not both score	16.5%	17.9%	21.1%	0.85×	5.58
Karlsruher SC & not both score	14.0%	13.3%	13.3%	1.00×	7.54
Draw & not both score	4.1%	4.9%	6.4%	0.76×	20.56

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli & over 1.5	34.8%	30.9%	34.3%	0.90×	3.24
Karlsruher SC & over 1.5	29.9%	26.0%	25.9%	1.01×	3.84
St. Pauli & over 2.5	29.4%	26.0%	27.8%	0.94×	3.84
Karlsruher SC & over 2.5	25.3%	26.0%	22.2%	1.17×	3.84
St. Pauli & under 3.5	23.1%	21.7%	27.8%	0.78×	4.62
Karlsruher SC & under 3.5	20.6%	21.7%	21.1%	1.03×	4.62
Draw & over 1.5	19.6%	18.0%	19.7%	0.92×	5.56
St. Pauli & over 3.5	17.7%	18.0%	15.4%	1.16×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.8%	0.76×	7.77
Draw & under 3.5	14.4%	12.9%	16.8%	0.76×	7.77
Karlsruher SC & over 3.5	14.9%	12.9%	10.3%	1.25×	7.77
St. Pauli & under 2.5	11.4%	12.9%	15.4%	0.83×	7.77
Karlsruher SC & under 2.5	10.2%	12.9%	9.2%	1.40×	7.77
Draw & over 2.5	9.2%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.69
Draw & over 3.5	9.2%	7.9%	9.2%	0.86×	12.69
St. Pauli & under 1.5	6.0%	7.9%	8.9%	0.89×	12.70
Karlsruher SC & under 1.5	5.5%	7.9%	5.5%	1.44×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	4.1%	4.8%	6.4%	0.75×	20.93

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (1UP)	59.9%	58.3%	—	—	1.72
Karlsruher SC (1UP)	55.4%	58.0%	—	—	1.73

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (2UP)	40.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Karlsruher SC (2UP)	35.5%	37.0%	—	—	2.70

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to win 2nd half	34.8%	34.6%	—	—	2.89
Karlsruher SC to win 2nd half	33.4%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
2nd half drawn	31.8%	34.5%	—	—	2.90

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (+2.5)	91.0%	92.1%	90.6%	1.02×	1.09
Karlsruher SC (+1.5)	78.7%	78.4%	77.7%	1.01×	1.28
St. Pauli (+0.5)	64.5%	62.9%	68.8%	0.91×	1.59
Karlsruher SC (+0.5)	59.2%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75
St. Pauli (-0.5)	40.8%	43.0%	43.1%	1.00×	2.33
Karlsruher SC (-0.5)	35.5%	37.1%	31.2%	1.19×	2.70
St. Pauli (-1.5)	21.3%	21.6%	22.3%	0.97×	4.64
St. Pauli (-2.5)	9.0%	7.9%	9.4%	0.85×	12.62

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC to concede	81.9%	81.3%	80.5%	1.01×	1.23
Karlsruher SC clean sheet	18.1%	18.7%	19.5%	0.96×	5.35

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC clean sheet in 1st half	47.9%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
Karlsruher SC to concede in 1st half	52.1%	49.3%	—	—	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC under 6.5 corners	82.4%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Karlsruher SC over 2.5 corners	75.7%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Karlsruher SC under 5.5 corners	71.8%	71.6%	—	—	1.40
Karlsruher SC over 3.5 corners	58.9%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Karlsruher SC under 4.5 corners	57.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Karlsruher SC over 4.5 corners	42.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Karlsruher SC under 3.5 corners	41.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Karlsruher SC over 5.5 corners	28.2%	28.4%	—	—	3.52
Karlsruher SC under 2.5 corners	24.3%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Karlsruher SC over 6.5 corners	17.6%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC under 3.5 goals	92.4%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Karlsruher SC over 0.5 goals	79.5%	76.3%	72.7%	1.05×	1.31
Karlsruher SC under 2.5 goals	78.8%	76.2%	83.6%	0.91×	1.31
Karlsruher SC under 1.5 goals	53.0%	53.7%	60.2%	0.89×	1.86
Karlsruher SC over 1.5 goals	47.0%	46.3%	39.8%	1.16×	2.16
Karlsruher SC over 2.5 goals	21.2%	23.8%	16.4%	1.45×	4.21
Karlsruher SC under 0.5 goals	20.5%	23.7%	27.3%	0.87×	4.21
Karlsruher SC over 3.5 goals	7.6%	7.7%	5.5%	1.41×	13.04

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC under 1.5 in 1st half	86.7%	89.0%	—	—	1.12
Karlsruher SC under 0.5 in 1st half	53.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
Karlsruher SC over 0.5 in 1st half	46.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28
Karlsruher SC over 1.5 in 1st half	13.3%	11.0%	—	—	9.10

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (away no bet)	63.3%	62.1%	62.4%	0.99×	1.61
Draw (away no bet)	36.7%	37.9%	37.6%	1.01×	2.64

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC even goals	52.1%	52.8%	54.1%	0.98×	1.89
Karlsruher SC odd goals	47.9%	47.2%	45.9%	1.03×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	77.2%	82.2%	—	—	1.22
Both halves over 1.5 goals	22.8%	17.8%	—	—	5.61

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	74.4%	67.4%	—	—	1.48
Both halves under 1.5 goals	25.6%	32.6%	—	—	3.07

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	65.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
St. Pauli to score 2+ in a row	39.9%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Karlsruher SC to score 2+ in a row	35.7%	36.4%	—	—	2.75
Either team to score 3+ in a row	25.9%	25.0%	—	—	4.00
St. Pauli to score 3+ in a row	14.6%	12.2%	—	—	8.17
Karlsruher SC to score 3+ in a row	11.9%	12.2%	—	—	8.22

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli corners (+3.5)	88.8%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
St. Pauli corners (+2.5)	82.6%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Karlsruher SC corners (+3.5)	77.7%	74.9%	—	—	1.34
St. Pauli corners (+1.5)	74.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Karlsruher SC corners (+2.5)	68.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Karlsruher SC corners (+1.5)	58.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
St. Pauli corners (-1.5)	41.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
St. Pauli corners (-2.5)	31.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Karlsruher SC corners (-1.5)	25.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
St. Pauli corners (-3.5)	22.3%	25.1%	—	—	3.98
Karlsruher SC corners (-2.5)	17.4%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Karlsruher SC corners (-3.5)	11.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	42.7%	38.7%	—	—	2.59
9-11 corners	30.3%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	27.0%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	80.5%	80.7%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.0%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	68.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	64.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	57.3%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	53.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	42.7%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	36.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	31.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.10
Over 11.5 corners	27.0%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	19.5%	19.3%	—	—	5.19

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	10.4%	11.5%	10.6%	1.08×	8.73
2-1	8.6%	7.4%	8.7%	0.85×	13.48
1-2	8.0%	7.4%	9.0%	0.82×	13.48
2-2	6.8%	7.4%	7.2%	1.03×	13.48
0-1	5.5%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
1-0	6.0%	7.4%	8.9%	0.83×	13.48
2-0	5.4%	7.4%	6.7%	1.11×	13.48
Any other score	5.2%	7.4%	5.5%	1.36×	13.48
0-2	4.7%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.46
3-1	4.9%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.46
0-0	4.1%	1.7%	6.4%	0.27×	58.47
0-3	2.5%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.48
0-4	1.0%	1.7%	1.1%	1.57×	58.48
1-3	4.2%	1.7%	2.5%	0.69×	58.47
1-4	1.7%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.48
2-3	3.6%	1.7%	2.8%	0.61×	58.47
2-4	1.4%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.48
3-0	3.1%	1.7%	3.9%	0.44×	58.47
3-2	3.9%	1.7%	3.1%	0.55×	58.47
3-3	2.0%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
3-4	0.8%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.49
4-0	1.3%	1.7%	0.9%	1.83×	58.48
4-1	2.1%	1.7%	2.0%	0.84×	58.48
4-2	1.7%	1.7%	0.8%	2.19×	58.48
4-3	0.9%	1.7%	0.6%	2.74×	58.48
4-4	0.3%	1.7%	0.3%	5.48×	58.49

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli leading at HT (DNB)	55.1%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
Karlsruher SC leading at HT (DNB)	44.9%	42.5%	—	—	2.35

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli or Karlsruher SC (12)	76.3%	75.5%	74.1%	1.02×	1.32
St. Pauli or draw (1X)	64.5%	63.6%	68.8%	0.92×	1.57
Karlsruher SC or draw (X2)	59.2%	57.0%	56.9%	1.00×	1.75

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli or draw at HT	72.5%	74.3%	—	—	1.35
Karlsruher SC or draw at HT	66.3%	66.4%	—	—	1.51
St. Pauli or Karlsruher SC at HT	61.1%	62.1%	—	—	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli or draw (1UP)	64.5%	71.8%	—	—	1.39
Karlsruher SC or draw (1UP)	59.2%	62.9%	—	—	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli or Karlsruher SC in 2nd half	68.2%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
St. Pauli or draw in 2nd half	66.6%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Karlsruher SC or draw in 2nd half	65.2%	65.4%	—	—	1.53

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	57.9%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Neither half drawn	42.1%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (DNB)	53.5%	51.0%	58.0%	0.88×	1.96
Karlsruher SC (DNB)	46.5%	49.0%	42.0%	1.17×	2.04

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to score first	49.8%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Karlsruher SC to score first	46.1%	45.5%	—	—	2.20
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.27

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	65.4%	58.2%	59.6%	0.98×	1.72
Not both teams to score	34.6%	41.8%	40.4%	1.04×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	55.0%	47.2%	49.1%	0.96×	2.12
Not both score & under 2.5	25.7%	33.6%	30.7%	1.09×	2.98
Both score & under 2.5	10.4%	12.3%	10.6%	1.16×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.9%	8.4%	9.8%	0.85×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	76.1%	79.9%	80.5%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score 2+	23.9%	20.1%	19.5%	1.03×	4.97

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	61.7%	66.0%	—	—	1.52
Both teams to score in 2nd half	38.3%	34.0%	—	—	2.94

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	46.6%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Both score 2nd half only	29.0%	26.6%	—	—	3.76
Both score 1st half only	15.2%	15.5%	—	—	6.44
Both score in both halves	9.3%	6.8%	—	—	14.63

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	75.5%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Both teams to score by HT	24.5%	18.6%	—	—	5.38

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	63.8%	59.0%	—	—	1.70
A half without a goal	36.2%	41.0%	—	—	2.44

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	42.6%	42.1%	45.1%	0.93×	2.38
4-6 goals	36.8%	35.1%	30.6%	1.15×	2.85
0-1 goals	15.6%	20.2%	20.4%	0.99×	4.96
7+ goals	5.0%	7.6%	4.2%	1.79×	13.24

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 1	32.5%	33.8%	33.1%	1.02×	2.96
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 2	25.7%	27.4%	23.6%	1.16×	3.65
Karlsruher SC to score 3+	21.2%	22.4%	16.4%	1.37×	4.47
Karlsruher SC to score exactly 0	20.5%	22.4%	27.3%	0.82×	4.47

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to score exactly 1	30.9%	32.6%	31.8%	1.03×	3.06
St. Pauli to score exactly 2	26.4%	26.5%	26.4%	1.01×	3.77
St. Pauli to score 3+	24.5%	23.3%	22.6%	1.03×	4.30
St. Pauli to score exactly 0	18.1%	18.9%	19.5%	0.97×	5.29

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	38.9%	37.9%	—	—	2.64
St. Pauli leading at HT	33.7%	33.6%	—	—	2.97
Karlsruher SC leading at HT	27.5%	25.7%	—	—	3.90

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli -1: 2	59.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.76
St. Pauli -1: 1	21.3%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
St. Pauli -1: X	19.5%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:1)	59.2%	55.9%	56.9%	0.98×	1.79
St. Pauli (0:1)	21.3%	24.3%	22.3%	1.09×	4.12
Draw (0:1)	19.5%	17.8%	20.9%	0.85×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:2)	78.7%	79.5%	77.7%	1.02×	1.26
Draw (0:2)	12.3%	11.0%	13.1%	0.84×	9.12
St. Pauli (0:2)	9.0%	7.7%	9.4%	0.83×	12.93

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:3)	91.0%	92.6%	90.6%	1.02×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	5.9%	5.8%	5.9%	0.98×	17.19
St. Pauli (0:3)	3.2%	2.4%	3.6%	0.66×	42.12

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (0:4)	96.8%	98.1%	96.4%	1.02×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	2.2%	1.2%	2.0%	0.59×	83.42
St. Pauli (0:4)	0.9%	1.2%	1.7%	0.70×	83.57

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (1:0)	64.5%	65.1%	68.8%	0.95×	1.54
Draw (1:0)	18.0%	17.0%	18.1%	0.94×	5.87
Karlsruher SC (1:0)	17.5%	17.0%	13.3%	1.28×	5.87

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli (2:0)	82.5%	84.5%	86.7%	0.97×	1.18
Draw (2:0)	10.6%	10.4%	7.2%	1.44×	9.65
Karlsruher SC (2:0)	6.9%	6.5%	6.2%	1.03×	15.49

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	50.2%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
1st half highest scoring	27.1%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Halves equal	22.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to concede	79.5%	76.0%	72.7%	1.05×	1.32
St. Pauli clean sheet	20.5%	24.0%	27.3%	0.88×	4.17

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli clean sheet in 1st half	53.1%	56.2%	—	—	1.78
St. Pauli to concede in 1st half	46.9%	43.8%	—	—	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli over 2.5 corners	83.7%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
St. Pauli under 6.5 corners	72.0%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
St. Pauli over 3.5 corners	70.1%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
St. Pauli under 5.5 corners	59.6%	57.5%	—	—	1.74
St. Pauli over 4.5 corners	54.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
St. Pauli under 4.5 corners	45.1%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
St. Pauli over 5.5 corners	40.4%	42.5%	—	—	2.35
St. Pauli under 3.5 corners	29.9%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
St. Pauli over 6.5 corners	28.0%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
St. Pauli under 2.5 corners	16.3%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli under 3.5 goals	90.5%	92.2%	92.4%	1.00×	1.08
St. Pauli over 0.5 goals	81.9%	82.1%	80.5%	1.02×	1.22
St. Pauli under 2.5 goals	75.5%	77.7%	77.4%	1.00×	1.29
St. Pauli over 1.5 goals	51.0%	53.2%	48.8%	1.09×	1.88
St. Pauli under 1.5 goals	49.0%	46.8%	51.2%	0.91×	2.14
St. Pauli over 2.5 goals	24.5%	22.3%	22.6%	0.98×	4.49
St. Pauli under 0.5 goals	18.1%	17.9%	19.5%	0.92×	5.59
St. Pauli over 3.5 goals	9.5%	7.8%	7.6%	1.01×	12.89

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli under 1.5 in 1st half	83.2%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
St. Pauli under 0.5 in 1st half	47.9%	50.9%	—	—	1.97
St. Pauli over 0.5 in 1st half	52.1%	49.1%	—	—	2.04
St. Pauli over 1.5 in 1st half	16.8%	15.7%	—	—	6.37

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC (home no bet)	60.0%	56.7%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76
Draw (home no bet)	40.0%	43.3%	45.4%	0.95×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli even goals	51.6%	50.6%	50.9%	1.00×	1.98
St. Pauli odd goals	48.4%	49.4%	49.1%	1.00×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	25.5%	28.8%	—	—	3.48
HT 1-0	18.7%	18.8%	—	—	5.33
HT 0-1	16.1%	18.7%	—	—	5.35
HT 1-1	11.9%	10.9%	—	—	9.16
HT 2-0	6.9%	7.1%	—	—	14.05
Any other HT score	6.4%	7.1%	—	—	14.06
HT 0-2	5.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.08
HT 2-1	4.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.29
HT 1-2	3.8%	2.3%	—	—	43.33
HT 2-2	1.4%	2.3%	—	—	43.51

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli at HT / St. Pauli at FT	24.7%	21.9%	—	—	4.57
Karlsruher SC at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT	19.5%	16.8%	—	—	5.96
Draw at HT / St. Pauli at FT	13.3%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	12.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
Draw at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT	12.8%	12.7%	—	—	7.89
St. Pauli at HT / Draw at FT	5.8%	6.0%	—	—	16.71
Karlsruher SC at HT / Draw at FT	5.1%	6.0%	—	—	16.74
St. Pauli at HT / Karlsruher SC at FT	3.1%	3.5%	—	—	28.84
Karlsruher SC at HT / St. Pauli at FT	2.8%	3.5%	—	—	28.85

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to score last	49.8%	46.8%	—	—	2.14
Karlsruher SC to score last	46.1%	46.6%	—	—	2.14
No goal scored	4.1%	4.3%	—	—	23.27

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	96.0%	95.6%	—	—	1.05
St. Pauli to lead by 1 at any time	59.9%	55.2%	—	—	1.81
Karlsruher SC to lead by 1 at any time	55.4%	55.0%	—	—	1.82
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	54.1%	50.7%	—	—	1.97
St. Pauli to lead by 2 at any time	29.4%	25.5%	—	—	3.92
Karlsruher SC to lead by 2 at any time	25.2%	25.4%	—	—	3.94
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	21.3%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
St. Pauli to lead by 3 at any time	11.9%	10.5%	—	—	9.56
Karlsruher SC to lead by 3 at any time	9.4%	6.7%	—	—	14.97

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli most corners	53.2%	52.0%	—	—	1.93
Karlsruher SC most corners	35.6%	39.3%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	84.3%	83.5%	84.6%	0.99×	1.20
2-6 goals	79.4%	78.6%	75.5%	1.04×	1.27
2-5 goals	72.8%	72.4%	70.5%	1.03×	1.38
1-4 goals	72.3%	72.4%	75.5%	0.96×	1.38
2-4 goals	60.8%	63.4%	61.5%	1.03×	1.58
3-6 goals	58.9%	59.2%	54.8%	1.08×	1.69
1-3 goals	54.1%	53.2%	59.1%	0.90×	1.88
3-5 goals	52.3%	53.2%	49.8%	1.07×	1.88
2-3 goals	42.6%	43.6%	45.1%	0.97×	2.30
3-4 goals	40.3%	43.6%	40.7%	1.07×	2.30
4-6 goals	36.8%	39.1%	30.6%	1.28×	2.55
1-2 goals	32.0%	35.4%	34.9%	1.01×	2.83
4-5 goals	30.2%	35.4%	25.6%	1.38×	2.83
5-6 goals	18.6%	18.6%	14.2%	1.31×	5.37
7+ goals	5.0%	8.7%	4.2%	2.07×	11.47

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli never behind	40.5%	48.1%	—	—	2.08
Karlsruher SC never behind	36.1%	44.6%	—	—	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.3%	50.8%	50.5%	1.01×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.7%	49.2%	49.5%	0.99×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	53.4%	51.7%	—	—	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	46.6%	48.3%	—	—	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	51.3%	52.0%	—	—	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	48.7%	48.0%	—	—	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 goals	96.0%	95.5%	93.6%	1.02×	1.05
Under 5.5 goals	88.4%	87.7%	90.8%	0.97×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	84.4%	82.4%	79.6%	1.04×	1.21
Under 4.5 goals	76.4%	77.3%	81.7%	0.95×	1.29
Over 2.5 goals	63.9%	61.8%	58.8%	1.05×	1.62
Under 3.5 goals	58.2%	58.8%	65.4%	0.90×	1.70
Over 3.5 goals	41.8%	41.2%	34.6%	1.19×	2.43
Under 2.5 goals	36.1%	38.2%	41.2%	0.93×	2.62
Over 4.5 goals	23.6%	22.7%	18.3%	1.24×	4.41
Under 1.5 goals	15.6%	17.6%	20.4%	0.86×	5.68
Over 5.5 goals	11.6%	12.4%	9.2%	1.34×	8.10
Under 0.5 goals	4.1%	4.5%	6.4%	0.70×	22.20

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	94.6%	92.5%	95.6%	0.97×	1.08
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	86.8%	86.7%	89.9%	0.97×	1.15
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	80.4%	81.0%	74.2%	1.09×	1.23
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	71.1%	72.6%	78.2%	0.93×	1.38
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	53.7%	51.8%	45.7%	1.13×	1.93
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	46.3%	48.2%	54.3%	0.89×	2.08
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	28.9%	27.4%	21.8%	1.26×	3.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	19.6%	19.0%	25.8%	0.74×	5.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	13.2%	13.3%	10.1%	1.31×	7.54
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	5.4%	7.5%	4.4%	1.70×	13.28

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	84.1%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	74.5%	71.3%	—	—	1.40
Under 1.5 in 1st half	60.2%	63.6%	—	—	1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half	39.8%	36.4%	—	—	2.74
Under 0.5 in 1st half	25.5%	28.7%	—	—	3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half	15.9%	13.7%	—	—	7.30

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	85.3%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	69.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	57.4%	54.8%	—	—	1.82
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	42.6%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	30.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	14.7%	14.8%	—	—	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC not to score in both halves	71.2%	73.7%	—	—	1.36
St. Pauli not to score in both halves	67.6%	70.5%	—	—	1.42
St. Pauli to score in both halves	32.4%	29.5%	—	—	3.39
Karlsruher SC to score in both halves	28.8%	26.3%	—	—	3.81

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	65.4%	59.5%	59.6%	1.00×	1.68
Only St. Pauli scores	16.5%	16.1%	21.1%	0.76×	6.22
Only Karlsruher SC scores	14.0%	10.9%	13.3%	0.83×	9.14
Neither team scores	4.1%	4.6%	6.4%	0.72×	21.82

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 3 goals	22.1%	22.6%	24.3%	0.93×	4.42
Exactly 2 goals	20.5%	22.6%	20.9%	1.08×	4.42
Exactly 4 goals	18.2%	17.4%	16.5%	1.05×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	12.0%	12.1%	9.2%	1.31×	8.28
Exactly 1 goals	11.6%	12.1%	14.2%	0.85×	8.28
6 or more goals	11.6%	12.1%	9.2%	1.31×	8.28
Exactly 0 goals	4.1%	4.4%	6.4%	0.69×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	57.4%	53.4%	—	—	1.87
1 goal in 2nd half	27.9%	29.8%	—	—	3.35
No goals in 2nd half	14.7%	14.6%	—	—	6.86

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC not to win both halves	90.8%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
St. Pauli not to win both halves	88.2%	87.9%	—	—	1.14
St. Pauli to win both halves	11.8%	12.1%	—	—	8.28
Karlsruher SC to win both halves	9.2%	6.1%	—	—	16.40

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
St. Pauli to win either half	56.7%	59.4%	—	—	1.68
Karlsruher SC to win either half	51.7%	54.9%	—	—	1.82
Karlsruher SC to win neither half	48.3%	45.1%	—	—	2.22
St. Pauli to win neither half	43.3%	40.6%	—	—	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Karlsruher SC not to win to nil	86.0%	88.2%	86.7%	1.02×	1.13
St. Pauli not to win to nil	83.5%	83.0%	78.9%	1.05×	1.20
St. Pauli to win to nil	16.5%	17.0%	21.1%	0.81×	5.89
Karlsruher SC to win to nil	14.0%	11.8%	13.3%	0.89×	8.48

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	23.7%	24.2%	25.9%	0.93×	4.14
St. Pauli by 1	19.5%	16.9%	20.9%	0.81×	5.91
Karlsruher SC by 1	18.0%	16.9%	18.1%	0.94×	5.91
St. Pauli by 2	12.3%	11.8%	13.1%	0.90×	8.48
Karlsruher SC by 2	10.6%	11.8%	7.2%	1.64×	8.48
St. Pauli by 3+	9.0%	7.3%	9.4%	0.78×	13.77
Karlsruher SC by 3+	6.9%	7.3%	6.2%	1.16×	13.78