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Standard Liege v Antwerp — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 5 September 2026 · BEL-Pro League · 2627

BEL-Pro League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Standard Liege win
26.3%
model 42.0%
Draw
37.0%
model 26.5%
Antwerp win
36.8%
model 31.6%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (886 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.6%
  2. 1-0 9.3%
  3. 2-1 8.9%
  4. 0-1 7.8%
  5. 1-2 7.5%

Goals

Over 2.550.9% Under 2.549.1%
BTTS yes55.2% BTTS no44.8%
Standard Liege 1+77.0% Standard Liege 2+43.1%
Antwerp 1+71.1% Antwerp 2+35.2%

Expected goals 1.47 – 1.24. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
78/100
Data quality
65/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
1-4 goals
Multi goal · usually 77%
78.9% fair odds 1.27
moderate signal · 2095 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.2% fair odds 1.20
moderate signal · 1227 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Standard Liege carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1469.

Risk factors

  • No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.
Why the model thinks this

The price

The draw is the single most likely outcome at 37.0%, with Standard Liege at 26.3% and Antwerp at 36.8%. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.47 for Standard Liege and 1.24 for Antwerp.

Why Standard Liege

Standard Liege carry the stronger rating, 1537 Elo against 1469.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 37.0%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.47 to 1.24. Draws run at 26% in this competition.

Why Antwerp can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Standard Liege, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Antwerp, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Standard Liege: 50% possession, 11.6 shots a match, 17.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Antwerp: 50% possession, 17.0 shots a match, 12.8 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 21:18 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

A draw is the model's most likely outcome at 37.0%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.6%. Confidence 78/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.47–1.24 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.34–1.01 1-1 13% 42% 47%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege to win 43.8% 43.0% 42.9% 1.00× 2.32
Draw 28.5% 27.9% 26.4% 1.06× 3.59
Antwerp to win 27.7% 27.9% 30.9% 0.90× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege & not both score 26.5% 25.2% 24.4% 1.03× 3.97
Draw & both teams score 18.4% 17.9% 18.8% 0.95× 5.58
Standard Liege & both teams score 17.3% 17.9% 18.7% 0.96× 5.58
Antwerp & not both score 16.2% 17.9% 14.5% 1.24× 5.58
Antwerp & both teams score 11.5% 13.3% 16.5% 0.80× 7.55
Draw & not both score 10.1% 13.3% 7.7% 1.72× 7.55
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege & under 3.5 33.4% 30.9% 29.5% 1.05× 3.24
Standard Liege & over 1.5 31.4% 30.9% 33.6% 0.92× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 23.5% 21.7% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 23.5% 21.7% 19.9% 1.09× 4.62
Standard Liege & over 2.5 22.8% 21.7% 26.1% 0.83× 4.62
Antwerp & under 3.5 22.2% 21.7% 21.9% 0.99× 4.62
Standard Liege & under 2.5 20.9% 21.7% 17.0% 1.28× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.4% 18.0% 18.8% 0.96× 5.56
Antwerp & over 1.5 18.5% 18.0% 24.4% 0.74× 5.56
Antwerp & over 2.5 13.6% 12.9% 19.8% 0.65× 7.77
Antwerp & under 2.5 14.1% 12.9% 11.3% 1.14× 7.77
Standard Liege & under 1.5 12.4% 12.9% 9.4% 1.37× 7.77
Standard Liege & over 3.5 10.4% 12.9% 13.6% 0.95× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 10.1% 12.9% 7.7% 1.67× 7.77
Antwerp & under 1.5 9.2% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.70
Draw & over 3.5 5.0% 7.9% 6.6% 1.19× 12.70
Antwerp & over 3.5 5.5% 7.9% 9.1% 0.86× 12.70
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (1UP) 57.8% 58.1% 1.72
Antwerp (1UP) 43.4% 39.5% 2.53
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (2UP) 43.8% 47.7% 2.10
Antwerp (2UP) 27.7% 24.9% 4.02
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 39.0% 36.1% 2.77
Standard Liege to win 2nd half 35.3% 36.0% 2.78
Antwerp to win 2nd half 25.7% 26.2% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (+2.5) 92.5% 92.1% 89.5% 1.03× 1.09
Antwerp (+1.5) 79.4% 78.5% 77.9% 1.01× 1.28
Standard Liege (+0.5) 72.3% 73.7% 69.1% 1.07× 1.36
Antwerp (+0.5) 56.2% 57.0% 57.1% 1.00× 1.75
Standard Liege (-0.5) 43.8% 43.0% 42.9% 1.00× 2.33
Antwerp (-0.5) 27.7% 26.3% 30.9% 0.85× 3.80
Standard Liege (-1.5) 20.6% 21.5% 22.1% 0.98× 4.64
Standard Liege (-2.5) 7.5% 7.9% 10.5% 0.75× 12.63
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to concede 73.7% 76.5% 77.9% 0.98× 1.31
Antwerp clean sheet 26.3% 23.5% 22.1% 1.07× 4.25
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp clean sheet in 1st half 56.3% 58.4% 1.71
Antwerp to concede in 1st half 43.7% 41.6% 2.40
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp over 2.5 corners 85.1% 84.9% 1.18
Antwerp over 3.5 corners 72.3% 72.3% 1.38
Antwerp under 6.5 corners 69.2% 68.3% 1.47
Antwerp over 4.5 corners 57.6% 56.9% 1.76
Antwerp under 5.5 corners 56.7% 56.9% 1.76
Antwerp over 5.5 corners 43.3% 43.1% 2.32
Antwerp under 4.5 corners 42.4% 43.1% 2.32
Antwerp over 6.5 corners 30.8% 31.8% 3.15
Antwerp under 3.5 corners 27.7% 27.7% 3.61
Antwerp under 2.5 corners 14.9% 15.1% 6.62
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.5% 95.2% 1.02× 1.03
Antwerp under 2.5 goals 91.9% 92.3% 86.9% 1.06× 1.08
Antwerp under 1.5 goals 73.4% 72.0% 64.7% 1.11× 1.39
Antwerp over 0.5 goals 63.4% 63.0% 68.1% 0.93× 1.59
Antwerp under 0.5 goals 36.6% 37.0% 31.9% 1.16× 2.70
Antwerp over 1.5 goals 26.6% 28.0% 35.3% 0.79× 3.57
Antwerp over 2.5 goals 8.1% 7.7% 13.1% 0.59× 13.03
Antwerp over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.5% 4.8% 0.51× 40.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp under 1.5 in 1st half 93.8% 94.2% 1.06
Antwerp under 0.5 in 1st half 66.9% 68.3% 1.47
Antwerp over 0.5 in 1st half 33.1% 31.7% 3.15
Antwerp over 1.5 in 1st half 6.2% 5.8% 17.32
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (away no bet) 60.5% 62.0% 61.9% 1.00× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 39.5% 38.0% 38.1% 1.00× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp even goals 56.7% 56.9% 57.4% 0.99× 1.76
Antwerp odd goals 43.3% 43.1% 42.6% 1.01× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 89.9% 87.8% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 10.1% 12.2% 8.23
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 55.3% 59.9% 1.67
Both halves under 1.5 goals 44.7% 40.1% 2.49
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 48.0% 45.9% 2.18
Standard Liege to score 2+ in a row 32.0% 29.0% 3.45
Antwerp to score 2+ in a row 20.2% 19.5% 5.14
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.1% 16.3% 6.14
Standard Liege to score 3+ in a row 10.4% 12.1% 8.25
Antwerp to score 3+ in a row 4.8% 2.7% 37.63
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp corners (+3.5) 91.3% 88.6% 1.13
Antwerp corners (+2.5) 86.0% 84.2% 1.19
Antwerp corners (+1.5) 78.7% 75.5% 1.33
Standard Liege corners (+3.5) 73.4% 69.9% 1.43
Standard Liege corners (+2.5) 63.7% 61.7% 1.62
Standard Liege corners (+1.5) 52.8% 52.3% 1.91
Antwerp corners (-1.5) 47.2% 47.7% 2.10
Antwerp corners (-2.5) 36.3% 38.3% 2.61
Antwerp corners (-3.5) 26.6% 30.1% 3.32
Standard Liege corners (-1.5) 21.3% 24.5% 4.08
Standard Liege corners (-2.5) 14.0% 15.8% 6.31
Standard Liege corners (-3.5) 8.7% 11.4% 8.81
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 43.8% 37.1% 2.70
9-11 corners 30.0% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 26.2% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 81.0% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 73.8% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 67.2% 67.9% 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 64.9% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 56.2% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.8% 52.3% 1.91
Over 9.5 corners 45.2% 47.7% 2.09
Under 8.5 corners 43.8% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 35.1% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 32.8% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 26.2% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 19.0% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 13.4% 11.5% 12.3% 0.93× 8.73
1-0 12.4% 11.5% 9.4% 1.22× 8.73
0-0 10.1% 11.5% 7.7% 1.48× 8.73
0-1 9.2% 7.4% 6.6% 1.12× 13.48
2-0 8.6% 7.4% 7.7% 0.96× 13.48
2-1 8.6% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.48
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 8.8% 0.84× 13.48
0-2 4.9% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.46
0-3 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.48
0-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.49
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 3.1% 0.55× 58.48
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 1.2% 1.38× 58.49
2-2 4.3% 1.7% 5.2% 0.33× 58.46
2-3 1.5% 1.7% 2.2% 0.79× 58.48
2-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.49
3-0 3.8% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.47
3-1 3.8% 1.7% 2.9% 0.58× 58.47
3-2 1.9% 1.7% 2.5% 0.69× 58.48
3-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.9% 1.85× 58.49
3-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.49
4-0 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.48
4-1 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 0.85× 58.48
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.4% 1.23× 58.49
4-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.22× 58.49
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.69× 58.49
Any other score 1.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.48
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege leading at HT (DNB) 61.0% 65.6% 1.52
Antwerp leading at HT (DNB) 39.0% 34.4% 2.91
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege or draw (1X) 72.3% 72.1% 69.1% 1.04× 1.39
Standard Liege or Antwerp (12) 71.5% 72.1% 73.6% 0.98× 1.39
Antwerp or draw (X2) 56.2% 57.0% 57.1% 1.00× 1.76
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege or draw at HT 79.3% 79.9% 1.25
Antwerp or draw at HT 67.7% 66.4% 1.51
Standard Liege or Antwerp at HT 53.0% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege or draw (1UP) 72.3% 80.1% 1.25
Antwerp or draw (1UP) 56.2% 62.6% 1.60
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege or draw in 2nd half 74.3% 73.8% 1.36
Antwerp or draw in 2nd half 64.7% 64.0% 1.56
Standard Liege or Antwerp in 2nd half 61.0% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 67.2% 69.4% 1.44
Neither half drawn 32.8% 30.6% 3.27
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (DNB) 61.3% 62.8% 58.2% 1.08× 1.59
Antwerp (DNB) 38.7% 37.2% 41.8% 0.89× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege to score first 51.3% 53.8% 1.86
Antwerp to score first 38.6% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 10.1% 9.5% 10.55
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 52.8% 51.4% 46.3% 1.11× 1.95
Both teams to score 47.2% 48.6% 53.7% 0.90× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 45.1% 44.3% 35.6% 1.24× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 33.8% 34.3% 41.5% 0.83× 2.92
Both score & under 2.5 13.4% 12.3% 12.3% 1.00× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 7.7% 8.4% 10.8% 0.77× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 89.7% 85.6% 85.5% 1.00× 1.17
Both teams to score 2+ 10.3% 14.4% 14.5% 0.99× 6.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 75.7% 75.1% 1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half 24.3% 24.9% 4.01
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 64.6% 66.6% 1.50
Both score 2nd half only 20.8% 20.8% 4.82
Both score 1st half only 11.1% 10.7% 9.33
Both score in both halves 3.5% 5.0% 20.00
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 85.4% 85.8% 1.17
Both teams to score by HT 14.6% 14.2% 7.03
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 53.3% 53.5% 1.87
A goal in each half 46.7% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 47.4% 47.4% 47.7% 0.99× 2.11
0-1 goals 31.7% 30.7% 23.5% 1.31× 3.25
4-6 goals 19.9% 20.2% 26.4% 0.77× 4.95
7+ goals 1.0% 1.8% 2.8% 0.66× 54.70
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 32.9% 1.09× 2.78
Antwerp to score exactly 0 36.6% 36.0% 31.9% 1.13× 2.78
Antwerp to score exactly 2 18.5% 19.6% 22.4% 0.87× 5.11
Antwerp to score 3+ 8.1% 8.5% 13.1% 0.65× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege to score exactly 1 35.1% 35.6% 34.6% 1.03× 2.81
Standard Liege to score exactly 0 26.3% 26.5% 22.1% 1.20× 3.77
Standard Liege to score exactly 2 23.5% 23.2% 24.4% 0.95× 4.30
Standard Liege to score 3+ 15.1% 18.9% 19.3% 0.98× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.0% 52.4% 1.91
Standard Liege leading at HT 32.3% 33.6% 2.98
Antwerp leading at HT 20.7% 20.1% 4.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege -1: 2 56.2% 56.6% 1.77
Standard Liege -1: X 23.2% 23.6% 4.24
Standard Liege -1: 1 20.6% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (0:1) 56.2% 55.8% 57.1% 0.98× 1.79
Draw (0:1) 23.2% 24.3% 21.0% 1.16× 4.12
Standard Liege (0:1) 20.6% 24.3% 22.1% 1.10× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (0:2) 79.4% 79.5% 77.9% 1.02× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 13.1% 11.0% 11.7% 0.94× 9.12
Standard Liege (0:2) 7.5% 7.7% 10.5% 0.74× 12.95
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (0:3) 92.5% 92.6% 89.5% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 5.3% 5.8% 6.2% 0.94× 17.19
Standard Liege (0:3) 2.2% 2.4% 4.5% 0.53× 42.17
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp (0:4) 97.8% 98.1% 95.5% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.7% 1.2% 2.5% 0.49× 83.49
Standard Liege (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 2.2% 0.55× 83.62
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (1:0) 72.3% 72.5% 69.1% 1.05× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 17.3% 17.0% 17.6% 0.97× 5.87
Antwerp (1:0) 10.4% 12.8% 13.4% 0.95× 7.82
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege (2:0) 89.6% 88.4% 86.6% 1.02× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.4% 6.5% 8.6% 0.75× 15.49
Antwerp (2:0) 2.9% 2.3% 4.9% 0.46× 44.19
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 45.4% 48.1% 2.08
Halves equal 28.1% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.5% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege to concede 63.4% 63.4% 68.1% 0.93× 1.58
Standard Liege clean sheet 36.6% 36.6% 31.9% 1.15× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege clean sheet in 1st half 66.9% 68.6% 1.46
Standard Liege to concede in 1st half 33.1% 31.4% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege under 6.5 corners 85.7% 85.2% 1.17
Standard Liege under 5.5 corners 76.1% 76.1% 1.31
Standard Liege over 2.5 corners 71.7% 71.5% 1.40
Standard Liege under 4.5 corners 62.7% 62.0% 1.61
Standard Liege over 3.5 corners 53.9% 53.1% 1.89
Standard Liege under 3.5 corners 46.1% 46.9% 2.13
Standard Liege over 4.5 corners 37.3% 38.0% 2.63
Standard Liege under 2.5 corners 28.3% 28.5% 3.51
Standard Liege over 5.5 corners 23.9% 23.9% 4.19
Standard Liege over 6.5 corners 14.3% 14.8% 6.75
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege under 3.5 goals 95.3% 96.4% 90.9% 1.06× 1.04
Standard Liege under 2.5 goals 84.9% 82.1% 80.7% 1.02× 1.22
Standard Liege over 0.5 goals 73.7% 74.2% 77.9% 0.95× 1.35
Standard Liege under 1.5 goals 61.4% 63.5% 56.5% 1.12× 1.58
Standard Liege over 1.5 goals 38.6% 36.5% 43.5% 0.84× 2.74
Standard Liege under 0.5 goals 26.3% 25.8% 22.1% 1.17× 3.87
Standard Liege over 2.5 goals 15.1% 17.9% 19.3% 0.93× 5.60
Standard Liege over 3.5 goals 4.7% 3.6% 9.1% 0.40× 27.40
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege under 1.5 in 1st half 88.6% 89.8% 1.11
Standard Liege under 0.5 in 1st half 56.3% 58.0% 1.72
Standard Liege over 0.5 in 1st half 43.7% 42.0% 2.38
Standard Liege over 1.5 in 1st half 11.4% 10.2% 9.81
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 50.8% 51.6% 46.1% 1.12× 1.94
Antwerp (home no bet) 49.2% 48.4% 53.9% 0.90× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege even goals 53.5% 50.6% 52.6% 0.96× 1.98
Standard Liege odd goals 46.5% 49.4% 47.4% 1.04× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 37.7% 38.7% 2.59
HT 1-0 21.5% 24.1% 4.15
HT 0-1 15.1% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 8.8% 7.1% 14.02
HT 2-0 6.2% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 3.0% 2.3% 43.39
Any other HT score 2.9% 2.3% 43.40
HT 2-1 2.5% 2.3% 43.43
HT 1-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.48
HT 2-2 0.5% 2.3% 43.57
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege at HT / Standard Liege at FT 25.5% 26.7% 3.75
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.9% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Standard Liege at FT 16.3% 16.8% 5.97
Antwerp at HT / Antwerp at FT 14.2% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Antwerp at FT 11.8% 12.7% 7.89
Standard Liege at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.73
Antwerp at HT / Draw at FT 4.5% 3.5% 28.79
Antwerp at HT / Standard Liege at FT 2.0% 3.5% 28.89
Standard Liege at HT / Antwerp at FT 1.7% 3.5% 28.90
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege to score last 51.3% 51.9% 1.93
Antwerp to score last 38.6% 38.6% 2.59
No goal scored 10.1% 8.9% 11.28
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 89.9% 91.0% 1.10
Standard Liege to lead by 1 at any time 57.8% 55.1% 1.82
Antwerp to lead by 1 at any time 43.4% 39.3% 2.55
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.3% 39.2% 2.55
Standard Liege to lead by 2 at any time 25.8% 25.4% 3.94
Antwerp to lead by 2 at any time 14.6% 10.5% 9.51
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 12.9% 10.5% 9.54
Standard Liege to lead by 3 at any time 9.0% 6.7% 14.98
Antwerp to lead by 3 at any time 3.9% 1.7% 60.52
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp most corners 58.6% 55.4% 1.80
Standard Liege most corners 30.6% 33.7% 2.97
Corners level 10.8% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.7% 87.4% 86.0% 1.02× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.0% 83.5% 76.9% 1.09× 1.20
1-3 goals 69.0% 69.0% 63.4% 1.09× 1.45
2-6 goals 67.3% 69.0% 73.9% 0.93× 1.45
2-5 goals 65.1% 68.9% 70.2% 0.98× 1.45
2-4 goals 59.5% 59.2% 61.1% 0.97× 1.69
1-2 goals 48.4% 48.7% 40.3% 1.21× 2.06
2-3 goals 47.4% 48.7% 47.7% 1.02× 2.06
3-6 goals 40.5% 43.6% 49.5% 0.88× 2.30
3-5 goals 38.3% 39.2% 45.8% 0.85× 2.55
3-4 goals 32.6% 35.4% 36.7% 0.96× 2.83
4-6 goals 19.9% 18.6% 26.4% 0.71× 5.37
4-5 goals 17.7% 18.6% 22.7% 0.82× 5.37
5-6 goals 7.8% 8.7% 13.0% 0.67× 11.44
7+ goals 1.0% 2.5% 2.8% 0.92× 39.29
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Standard Liege never behind 46.5% 56.5% 1.77
Antwerp never behind 32.1% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 48.6% 50.8% 50.0% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 51.4% 49.2% 50.0% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.3% 57.5% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.8% 42.5% 2.35
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 53.6% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.4% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 96.8% 95.5% 93.5% 1.02× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 91.1% 92.3% 84.4% 1.09× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 89.9% 87.7% 92.3% 0.95× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 79.1% 77.4% 71.0% 1.09× 1.29
Over 1.5 goals 68.3% 66.2% 76.5% 0.87× 1.51
Under 2.5 goals 58.5% 58.8% 47.8% 1.23× 1.70
Over 2.5 goals 41.5% 41.2% 52.2% 0.79× 2.43
Under 1.5 goals 31.7% 33.8% 23.5% 1.44× 2.96
Over 3.5 goals 20.9% 22.6% 29.0% 0.78× 4.42
Under 0.5 goals 10.1% 12.3% 7.7% 1.60× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 8.9% 7.7% 15.6% 0.50× 12.92
Over 5.5 goals 3.2% 4.5% 6.5% 0.69× 22.21
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.0% 97.2% 97.1% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 96.6% 97.2% 92.9% 1.05× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 89.9% 86.8% 82.0% 1.06× 1.15
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 73.7% 72.6% 62.2% 1.17× 1.38
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 56.7% 55.4% 69.0% 0.80× 1.80
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 43.3% 44.6% 31.0% 1.44× 2.24
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 26.3% 27.4% 37.8% 0.73× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 10.1% 13.2% 18.0% 0.74× 7.55
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 3.4% 2.8% 7.1% 0.39× 36.12
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 1.0% 2.8% 2.9% 0.96× 36.19
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 92.4% 92.7% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 74.3% 71.3% 1.40
Over 0.5 in 1st half 62.3% 63.6% 1.57
Under 0.5 in 1st half 37.7% 36.4% 2.75
Over 1.5 in 1st half 25.7% 28.7% 3.48
Over 2.5 in 1st half 7.6% 7.3% 13.69
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 84.2% 82.9% 1.21
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 74.3% 77.8% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 60.2% 61.6% 1.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 39.8% 38.4% 2.60
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 25.7% 22.2% 4.50
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 15.8% 17.1% 5.84
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to score in both halves 85.0% 84.4% 1.19
Standard Liege not to score in both halves 76.7% 78.2% 1.28
Standard Liege to score in both halves 23.3% 21.8% 4.59
Antwerp to score in both halves 15.0% 15.6% 6.41
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 47.2% 50.5% 53.7% 0.94× 1.98
Only Standard Liege scores 26.5% 26.1% 24.4% 1.07× 3.83
Only Antwerp scores 16.2% 16.1% 14.5% 1.11× 6.22
Neither team scores 10.1% 10.9% 7.7% 1.42× 9.16
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 26.8% 25.0% 24.5% 1.02× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 21.6% 22.6% 15.9% 1.42× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 20.6% 22.6% 23.3% 0.97× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 12.1% 12.1% 13.6% 0.89× 8.28
Exactly 0 goals 10.1% 12.1% 7.7% 1.57× 8.28
Exactly 5 goals 5.6% 7.6% 9.3% 0.83× 13.09
6 or more goals 3.2% 4.4% 6.5% 0.68× 22.67
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 39.8% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 34.5% 33.5% 2.99
No goals in 2nd half 25.7% 29.7% 3.36
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to win both halves 94.6% 94.0% 1.06
Standard Liege not to win both halves 88.5% 87.9% 1.14
Standard Liege to win both halves 11.5% 12.1% 8.29
Antwerp to win both halves 5.4% 6.0% 16.68
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp to win neither half 59.0% 59.5% 1.68
Standard Liege to win either half 56.1% 59.4% 1.68
Standard Liege to win neither half 43.9% 40.6% 2.46
Antwerp to win either half 41.0% 40.5% 2.47
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Antwerp not to win to nil 83.8% 83.0% 85.5% 0.97× 1.20
Standard Liege not to win to nil 73.5% 75.3% 75.6% 1.00× 1.33
Standard Liege to win to nil 26.5% 24.7% 24.4% 1.01× 4.05
Antwerp to win to nil 16.2% 17.0% 14.5% 1.17× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 28.5% 27.9% 26.4% 1.06× 3.59
Standard Liege by 1 23.2% 24.2% 21.0% 1.15× 4.14
Antwerp by 1 17.3% 16.9% 17.6% 0.96× 5.91
Standard Liege by 2 13.1% 11.8% 11.7% 1.01× 8.47
Standard Liege by 3+ 7.5% 7.3% 10.5% 0.69× 13.78
Antwerp by 2 7.4% 7.3% 8.6% 0.84× 13.78
Antwerp by 3+ 2.9% 2.7% 4.9% 0.55× 36.99
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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