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Strasbourg v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 5 January 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

3–1
2.90 – 1.76 xG
Shots
11 – 14
On target
4 – 7
Shots in box
10 – 11
xG per shot
0.26 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.84 – 0.39
Goals − xG
+0.10 – -0.77
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.81.62.43.20'15'30'45'60'75'90'Hamed Junior Traore 13' — goalHabib Diarra 48' — goalFelix Lemarechal 58' — goalEmanuel Emegha 86' — goal
Strasbourg 2.90 xGAuxerre 1.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Sékou Mara 1' — Missed Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Hamed Junior Traore 10' — Missed Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 11' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Hamed Junior Traore 13' — Goal (0.55 xG, Open Play)Ki-Jana Hoever 18' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Andrey Santos 24' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 32' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 36' — Blocked Shot (0.14 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 48' — Goal (0.76 xG, )Andrey Santos 49' — Blocked Shot (0.08 xG, From Corner)Jubal 56' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Direct Freekick)Lassine Sinayoko 58' — Missed Shot (0.28 xG, From Corner)Felix Lemarechal 58' — Goal (0.28 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 61' — Saved Shot (0.12 xG, Open Play)Ki-Jana Hoever 62' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Gaetan Perrin 64' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 66' — Blocked Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)Hamed Junior Traore 70' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Sebastian Nanasi 71' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Jubal 79' — Missed Shot (0.09 xG, From Corner)Paul Joly 81' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 86' — Goal (0.94 xG, Open Play)Ado Onaiwu 95' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Theo Bair 95' — Saved Shot (0.28 xG, Open Play)Jeremy Sebas 95' — Blocked Shot (0.07 xG, Open Play)
Strasbourg attacking right Auxerre attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
1' Strasbourg Sékou Mara 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
10' Auxerre Hamed Junior Traore 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
11' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Elisha Owusu
13' Auxerre Hamed Junior Traore 0.55 Open Play Right Foot Goal
18' Auxerre Ki-Jana Hoever 0.08 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Hamed Junior Traore
24' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
32' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
36' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.14 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Felix Lemarechal
48' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.76 Right Foot Goal
49' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.08 From Corner Blocked Shot Dilane Bakwa
56' Auxerre Jubal 0.02 Direct Freekick Right Foot Saved Shot
58' Auxerre Lassine Sinayoko 0.28 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot Gaetan Perrin
58' Strasbourg Felix Lemarechal 0.28 Open Play Right Foot Goal Emanuel Emegha
61' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.12 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Dilane Bakwa
62' Auxerre Ki-Jana Hoever 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Elisha Owusu
64' Auxerre Gaetan Perrin 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Hamed Junior Traore
66' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.10 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Andrey Santos
70' Auxerre Hamed Junior Traore 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot
71' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.08 Open Play Missed Shot Diego Moreira
79' Auxerre Jubal 0.09 From Corner Missed Shot Gaetan Perrin
81' Auxerre Paul Joly 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
86' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.94 Open Play Left Foot Goal Diego Moreira
95' Auxerre Ado Onaiwu 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
95' Auxerre Theo Bair 0.28 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Gideon Mensah
95' Strasbourg Jeremy Sebas 0.07 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Guela Doué

Players

Auxerre

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Hamed Junior Traore AMC 90 1 0 3 2 0.73 0.10 0.83
Gaetan Perrin AMC 90 0 0 3 2 0.15 0.37 0.15
Jubal DC 90 0 0 2 0 0.10 0.00 0.04
Sinaly Diomande DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.35
Gideon Mensah DML 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.28 0.31
Elisha Owusu MC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.10 0.41
Théo De Percin GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.31
Lassine Sinayoko FW 89 0 0 1 0 0.28 0.00 0.04
Assane Diousse MC 89 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.15
Ki-Jana Hoever DMR 78 0 0 2 0 0.13 0.00 0.76
Clément Akpa DC 78 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Paul Joly Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.06 0.00 0.06
Ado Onaiwu Sub 12 0 0 1 0 0.04 0.00 0.32
Theo Bair Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.28 0.00 0.28
Aristide Zossou Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Yoann Cisse Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 1 1 3 1 1.20 0.28 1.49
Habib Diarra MC 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.12
Andrey Santos MC 90 0 0 2 1 0.10 0.10 0.62
Dilane Bakwa MR 90 0 0 1 2 0.10 0.20 0.25
Guela Doué DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.07 0.37
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.34
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.21
Diego Moreira DL 90 0 1 0 2 0.00 1.02 1.16
Ismaël Doukouré DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.12
Sebastian Nanasi ML 85 0 0 1 0 0.08 0.00 0.22
Felix Lemarechal Sub 68 1 0 1 1 0.28 0.14 0.60
Sékou Mara FW 22 0 0 1 0 0.30 0.00 0.30
Eduard Sobol Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeremy Sebas Sub 1 0 0 1 0 0.07 0.00 0.07
Pape Diong Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Abakar Sylla Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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