Strasbourg v Auxerre — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Wednesday 29 October 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 6
On target
9 – 1
Shots in box
14 – 5
xG per shot
0.24 – 0.11
Set-piece xG
0.38 – 0.11
Goals − xG
-1.28 – -0.69
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
60.0%
Draw
20.5%
Auxerre win
19.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing sharply above their chances — 5.8 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WLWLDWWLWW last 10
scored 23
from 17.3 xG
conceded 21
from 20.7 xG
Auxerre are finishing above their chances — 2.7 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off. They are also conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DDDLWWWLLL last 10
scored 16
from 13.3 xG
conceded 19
from 21.5 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.78–0.88 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.95–1.05 | 1-1 10% | 58% | 56% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 4.28 xGAuxerre 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Auxerre attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8' |
 Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 17' |
 Auxerre |
Clément Akpa | 0.04 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Francisco Sierralta |
| 18' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.48 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Diego Moreira |
| 20' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.54 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.16 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 20' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Valentín Barco |
| 34' |
Auxerre |
Marvin Senaya | 0.05 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Assane Diousse |
| 38' |
Strasbourg |
Andrew Omobamidele | 0.31 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 39' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.35 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 41' |
Auxerre |
Lassine Sinayoko | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Elisha Owusu |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Joaquín Panichelli | 0.68 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 45' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 48' |
Auxerre |
Ibrahim Osman | 0.39 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Lassine Sinayoko |
| 49' |
Auxerre |
Josué Casimir | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Ibrahim Osman |
| 54' |
Strasbourg |
Sebastian Nanasi | 0.41 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Valentín Barco |
| 57' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 59' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 59' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 71' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Sebastian Nanasi |
| 72' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 78' |
Strasbourg |
Samuel Amo-Ameyaw | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
| 79' |
Auxerre |
Fredrik Oppegård | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lasso Coulibaly |
| 88' |
Strasbourg |
Martial Godo | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Kendry Páez |
| 90' |
Strasbourg |
Kendry Páez | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Samir El Mourabet |
Players
Auxerre
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ibrahim Osman AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.13 | 0.52 |
| Josué Casimir AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Marvin Senaya DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clément Akpa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Fredrik Oppegård DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Donovan Léon GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Lassine Sinayoko FW | 86 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.39 | 0.45 |
| Francisco Sierralta Sub | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Sinaly Diomande DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Assane Diousse MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.52 |
| Elisha Owusu MC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Lasso Coulibaly Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
| Kévin Danois Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rudy Matondo Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oussama El Azzouzi DC | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan Rodin Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sebastian Nanasi AMC | 90 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0.97 | 1.24 | 2.72 |
| Martial Godo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Andrew Omobamidele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.31 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Guela Doué DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.61 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 69 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 1.98 | 0.40 | 2.08 |
| Diego Moreira DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.48 | 0.63 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 65 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.66 | 1.21 |
| Rafael Luís MC | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.48 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Samuel Amo-Ameyaw Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Samir El Mourabet Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.06 |
| Ben Chilwell Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Kendry Páez Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 0.17 |