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Strasbourg v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 6 October 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

2–2
1.31 – 1.43 xG
Shots
8 – 12
On target
5 – 5
Shots in box
4 – 9
xG per shot
0.16 – 0.12
Set-piece xG
1.07 – 0.02
Goals − xG
+0.69 – +0.57
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.40.81.21.60'15'30'45'60'75'90'M'Bala Nzola 4' — goalAbakar Sylla 17' — goalAndy Diouf 43' — goalHabib Diarra 59' — goal
Strasbourg 1.31 xGLens 1.43 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

M'Bala Nzola 4' — Goal (0.10 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 12' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 13' — Blocked Shot (0.13 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 13' — Saved Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Abakar Sylla 17' — Goal (0.31 xG, From Corner)Wesley Said 26' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Andy Diouf 32' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Malang Sarr 41' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Andy Diouf 43' — Goal (0.34 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 48' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Guela Doué 48' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 51' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jhoanner Chávez 54' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 59' — Goal (0.76 xG, )M'Bala Nzola 66' — Missed Shot (0.50 xG, Open Play)Sékou Mara 68' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Andrey Santos 74' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Jhoanner Chávez 78' — Saved Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Adrien Thomasson 79' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)M'Bala Nzola 92' — Missed Shot (0.10 xG, Open Play)
Strasbourg attacking right Lens attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
4' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.10 Open Play Right Foot Goal Adrien Thomasson
12' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.05 Open Play Saved Shot Wesley Said
13' Lens Andy Diouf 0.13 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot M'Bala Nzola
13' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot
17' Strasbourg Abakar Sylla 0.31 From Corner Goal Sebastian Nanasi
26' Lens Wesley Said 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Angelo Fulgini
32' Lens Andy Diouf 0.06 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Przemyslaw Frankowski
41' Lens Malang Sarr 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Blocked Shot
43' Lens Andy Diouf 0.34 Open Play Left Foot Goal
48' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Emanuel Emegha
48' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Sékou Mara
51' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sékou Mara
54' Lens Jhoanner Chávez 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Adrien Thomasson
59' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.76 Right Foot Goal
66' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.50 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Jhoanner Chávez
68' Strasbourg Sékou Mara 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Andrey Santos
74' Strasbourg Andrey Santos 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot
78' Lens Jhoanner Chávez 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Florian Sotoca
79' Lens Adrien Thomasson 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
92' Lens M'Bala Nzola 0.10 Open Play Missed Shot David Pereira Da Costa

Players

Lens

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
M'Bala Nzola FW 90 1 0 4 1 0.75 0.13 0.88
Jhoanner Chávez ML 90 0 0 2 1 0.06 0.50 0.92
Malang Sarr DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.38
Adrien Thomasson MC 90 0 1 1 2 0.02 0.12 0.42
Facundo Medina DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.36
Abduqodir Khusanov DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.22
Brice Samba GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.19
Andy Diouf MC 89 1 0 3 0 0.52 0.00 0.60
Przemyslaw Frankowski MR 82 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.23
Wesley Said FW 76 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.05 0.63
Angelo Fulgini AMC 76 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.05 0.17
Florian Sotoca Sub 14 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04
Nampalys Mendy Sub 14 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.10
Ruben Aguilar Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
David Pereira Da Costa Sub 1 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.10 0.10

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Habib Diarra AMC 90 1 0 1 0 0.76 0.00 0.05
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 0 0 2 1 0.11 0.03 0.14
Andrey Santos DMC 90 0 0 1 1 0.05 0.03 0.08
Dilane Bakwa AMR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Guela Doué DR 90 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.10
Ismaël Doukouré DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Saidou Sow DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Diego Moreira DL 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Sebastian Nanasi AML 82 0 1 0 1 0.00 0.31 0.03
Abakar Sylla DC 50 1 0 1 0 0.31 0.00 0.00
Sékou Mara Sub 40 0 0 1 2 0.03 0.08 0.11
Felix Lemarechal Sub 8 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jeremy Sebas Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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