Strasbourg v Lille — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 9 November 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
5 – 6
On target
2 – 4
Shots in box
3 – 2
xG per shot
0.15 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.03 – 0.41
Goals − xG
+1.23 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Strasbourg win
51.5%
Draw
20.9%
Lille win
27.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Strasbourg are finishing above their chances — 3.4 goals more than expected across 10 matches, which usually cools off.
WWLWLDWWLW last 10
scored 20
from 16.6 xG
conceded 21
from 20.0 xG
Lille are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 6.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDW last 10
scored 15
from 15.0 xG
conceded 5
from 11.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.76–1.21 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.80–1.66 | 1-1 9% | 67% | 68% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Strasbourg 0.77 xGLille 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Strasbourg attacking right
Lille attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Benjamin André |
| 13' |
 Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 15' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.32 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Romain Perraud |
| 20' |
Lille |
Hákon Haraldsson | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Olivier Giroud |
| 31' |
Lille |
Olivier Giroud | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Hákon Haraldsson |
| 32' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Diego Moreira |
| 47' |
Lille |
Nathan Ngoy | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Thomas Meunier |
| 49' |
Strasbourg |
Valentín Barco | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Joaquín Panichelli |
| 61' |
Strasbourg |
Emanuel Emegha | 0.35 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 75' |
Strasbourg |
Diego Moreira | 0.03 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 91' |
Lille |
Benjamin André | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Calvin Verdonk |
Players
Lille
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathan Ngoy DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Benjamin André DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Hákon Haraldsson AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 0.05 |
| Aissa Mandi DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Berke Özer GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Thomas Meunier DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Ayyoub Bouaddi DMC | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Romain Perraud DL | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.32 | 0.04 |
| Olivier Giroud FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.02 | 0.05 |
| Felix Correia AMR | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Matias Fernandez-Pardo AML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Hamza Igamane Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Osame Sahraoui Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marius Broholm Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ngal'ayel Mukau Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Calvin Verdonk Sub | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 |
Strasbourg
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diego Moreira ML | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.30 | 0.02 |
| Valentín Barco MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Ben Chilwell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mike Penders GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mamadou Sarr DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Lucas Høgsberg DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Joaquín Panichelli FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Guemissongui Ouattara MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Guela Doué MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emanuel Emegha FW | 77 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.71 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Julio Enciso AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rabby Nzingoula Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Samir El Mourabet Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Martial Godo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mathis Amougou Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew Omobamidele Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |