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Strasbourg v Marseille — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 29 September 2024 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425

Ligue 1 xG

1–0
1.67 – 0.78 xG
Shots
14 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
8 – 5
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.08
Set-piece xG
0.21 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.68 – -0.78
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.50.91.41.90'15'30'45'60'75'90'Diego Moreira 39' — goal
Strasbourg 1.68 xGMarseille 0.78 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Dilane Bakwa 8' — Missed Shot (0.26 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 14' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Sebastian Nanasi 17' — Saved Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Amine Harit 26' — Missed Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 27' — Missed Shot (0.45 xG, Open Play)Luis Henrique 31' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Emanuel Emegha 32' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Diego Moreira 39' — Goal (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 43' — Saved Shot (0.02 xG, From Corner)Emanuel Emegha 46' — Saved Shot (0.30 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 48' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 54' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 57' — Missed Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Dilane Bakwa 61' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Neal Maupay 62' — Saved Shot (0.46 xG, Open Play)Mason Greenwood 68' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Guela Doué 70' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, From Corner)Habib Diarra 70' — Missed Shot (0.04 xG, From Corner)Dilane Bakwa 75' — Missed Shot (0.05 xG, Direct Freekick)Jonathan Rowe 83' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Marvin Senaya 84' — Blocked Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Habib Diarra 85' — Saved Shot (0.05 xG, From Corner)Mason Greenwood 86' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Derek Cornelius 90' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)
Strasbourg attacking right Marseille attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
8' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.26 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Sebastian Nanasi
14' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Saved Shot Guela Doué
17' Strasbourg Sebastian Nanasi 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Emanuel Emegha
26' Marseille Amine Harit 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Amir Murillo
27' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.45 Open Play Missed Shot Habib Diarra
31' Marseille Luis Henrique 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Geoffrey Kondogbia
32' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.30 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Diego Moreira
39' Strasbourg Diego Moreira 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Goal Sebastian Nanasi
43' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.02 From Corner Left Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
46' Strasbourg Emanuel Emegha 0.30 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Diego Moreira
48' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Amine Harit
54' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.05 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Amine Harit
57' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.02 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Mamadou Sarr
61' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sebastian Nanasi
62' Marseille Neal Maupay 0.46 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot Adrien Rabiot
68' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Adrien Rabiot
70' Strasbourg Guela Doué 0.06 From Corner Blocked Shot Dilane Bakwa
70' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.04 From Corner Right Foot Missed Shot
75' Strasbourg Dilane Bakwa 0.05 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
83' Marseille Jonathan Rowe 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Missed Shot Neal Maupay
84' Strasbourg Marvin Senaya 0.03 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mamadou Sarr
85' Strasbourg Habib Diarra 0.05 From Corner Saved Shot Diego Moreira
86' Marseille Mason Greenwood 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Derek Cornelius
90' Marseille Derek Cornelius 0.04 Open Play Blocked Shot Ulisses García

Players

Marseille

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Mason Greenwood AMR 90 0 0 5 0 0.17 0.00 0.61
Derek Cornelius DC 90 0 0 1 1 0.04 0.04 0.57
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.58
Gerónimo Rulli GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.50
Geoffrey Kondogbia DMC 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.02 0.09
Amir Murillo DR 90 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.06 0.20
Lilian Brassier DL 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.55
Luis Henrique AML 73 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.10
Amine Harit AMC 65 0 0 1 3 0.06 0.11 0.15
Sepe Elye Wahi FW 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.04
Ismaël Koné DMC 64 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Adrien Rabiot Sub 26 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.49 0.53
Neal Maupay Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.46 0.03 0.49
Jonathan Rowe Sub 25 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.49
Valentín Carboni Sub 17 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Ulisses García Sub 5 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.04 0.04

Strasbourg

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Emanuel Emegha FW 90 0 0 3 1 1.04 0.03 1.07
Habib Diarra MC 90 0 0 3 1 0.10 0.45 0.83
Guela Doué DR 90 0 0 1 1 0.06 0.02 0.36
Diego Moreira DL 90 1 0 1 3 0.04 0.64 0.69
Saidou Sow DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Mamadou Sarr DC 90 0 0 0 2 0.00 0.05 0.42
Ismaël Doukouré DMC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.08
Andrey Santos MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.52
Djordje Petrovic GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.33
Sebastian Nanasi ML 85 0 1 1 3 0.03 0.34 0.68
Dilane Bakwa MR 79 0 0 4 1 0.37 0.06 0.79
Abakar Sylla Sub 11 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marvin Senaya Sub 5 0 0 1 0 0.03 0.00 0.03
Junior Mwanga Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sékou Mara Sub 1 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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