Sunderland v Brighton and Hove Albion — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 10 October 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2627

Premier League xG Prediction generated 4 Sep 2026, 02:09

Sunderland

10:00

Brighton and Hove Albion

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 7 Sep, 07:51 · 798h before kick-off

Sunderland win

36.6%

model 35.6%

Draw

26.6%

model 25.8%

Brighton and Hove Albion win

36.8%

model 38.6%

372737

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-1 12.2%
0-1 9.3%
1-0 8.8%
1-2 8.5%
2-1 8.1%

Goals

Over 2.5	50.8%	Under 2.5	49.2%
BTTS yes	54.9%	BTTS no	45.1%
Sunderland 1+	73.3%	Sunderland 2+	38.0%
Brighton and Hove Albion 1+	75.0%	Brighton and Hove Albion 2+	40.3%

Expected goals 1.32 – 1.39. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

91/100

Data quality

90/100

Model agreement

96%

★ Best pick

Sunderland under 1.5 goals

Home goals O/U · usually 51%

62.4% fair odds 1.60

moderate signal · 742 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 2.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT · usually 87%

83.7% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 388 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1566.
Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.54.
Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Brighton and Hove Albion have an estimated 36.8% win probability, against 36.6% for Sunderland and 26.6% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.32 for Sunderland and 1.39 for Brighton and Hove Albion.

Why Sunderland

Sunderland have created 1.46 xG a match over their last five while Brighton and Hove Albion have allowed 1.57. Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five. At home Sunderland average 1.50 xG a match. Their last eleven was closer to full strength: Brighton and Hove Albion were missing 1.10 expected goal involvements a match against 0.41.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.6%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.32 to 1.39. Draws run at 25% in this competition.

Why Brighton and Hove Albion can win

Brighton and Hove Albion carry the stronger rating, 1614 Elo against 1566. Brighton and Hove Albion have created 1.98 xG a match over their last five while Sunderland have allowed 1.54. Away from home Brighton and Hove Albion average 1.62 xG a match.

Key players

Sunderland's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Enzo Le Fée (0.37), Brian Brobbey (0.33), Habib Diarra (0.18). Brighton and Hove Albion's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Danny Welbeck (0.38), Jack Hinshelwood (0.31), Pascal Groß (0.29).

Availability

1 of Sunderland's top three contributors did not start their last match. 2 of Brighton and Hove Albion's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sunderland: 50% possession, 13.0 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.17 xG a match from set pieces. Brighton and Hove Albion: 67% possession, 17.6 shots a match, 10.2 faced, 0.53 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-04 06:09 ·

Brighton and Hove Albion are the model's most likely outcome at 36.8%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.2%. Confidence 91/100, data quality 90/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WLLDDWWLWD last 10 scored 13 from 14.6 xG conceded 15 from 15.4 xG

Brighton and Hove Albion have scored 19 from 19.8 expected and conceded 14 from 15.7 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.

WDWLWLLWLD last 10 scored 19 from 19.8 xG conceded 14 from 15.7 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	362639	1.32–1.39	0%	0%	0%
dc-goals	323038	1.18–1.30	1-1 14%	45%	52%
dc-xg	322741	1.15–1.35	1-1 13%	46%	51%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to win	42.4%	43.0%	32.3%	1.33×	2.32
Sunderland to win	32.3%	30.4%	43.1%	0.70×	3.29
Draw	25.3%	27.9%	24.7%	1.13×	3.59

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion & not both score	21.8%	21.9%	16.8%	1.30×	4.57
Brighton and Hove Albion & both teams score	20.6%	21.9%	15.5%	1.41×	4.57
Draw & both teams score	19.0%	17.9%	20.0%	0.90×	5.58
Sunderland & both teams score	16.1%	17.9%	22.9%	0.78×	5.58
Sunderland & not both score	16.2%	17.9%	20.3%	0.88×	5.58
Draw & not both score	6.4%	8.4%	4.9%	1.72×	11.93

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 1.5	32.9%	30.9%	25.4%	1.21×	3.24
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 3.5	28.9%	26.0%	21.7%	1.20×	3.84
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 2.5	25.8%	26.0%	20.0%	1.30×	3.84
Sunderland & over 1.5	24.2%	21.7%	36.7%	0.59×	4.62
Sunderland & under 3.5	22.9%	21.7%	26.8%	0.81×	4.62
Sunderland & over 2.5	19.1%	18.0%	30.2%	0.60×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	19.0%	18.0%	20.0%	0.90×	5.56
Draw & under 2.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Draw & under 3.5	18.4%	18.0%	16.3%	1.10×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 2.5	16.5%	18.0%	12.4%	1.45×	5.56
Brighton and Hove Albion & over 3.5	13.4%	12.9%	10.7%	1.21×	7.77
Sunderland & under 2.5	13.2%	12.9%	13.0%	0.99×	7.77
Sunderland & over 3.5	9.4%	7.9%	16.4%	0.48×	12.69
Brighton and Hove Albion & under 1.5	9.5%	7.9%	6.9%	1.14×	12.69
Sunderland & under 1.5	8.1%	7.9%	6.5%	1.21×	12.70
Draw & under 1.5	6.4%	7.9%	4.9%	1.62×	12.70
Draw & over 2.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70
Draw & over 3.5	7.0%	7.9%	8.5%	0.92×	12.70

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (1UP)	58.6%	58.2%	51.4%	1.13×	1.72
Sunderland (1UP)	49.9%	43.4%	62.1%	0.70×	2.30

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (2UP)	42.4%	47.6%	34.5%	1.38×	2.10
Sunderland (2UP)	32.3%	30.9%	44.9%	0.69×	3.24

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	39.7%	36.2%	30.9%	1.17×	2.77
Brighton and Hove Albion to win 2nd half	34.5%	34.5%	32.9%	1.05×	2.90
Sunderland to win 2nd half	25.8%	26.2%	36.3%	0.72×	3.81

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (+2.5)	95.3%	96.3%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Brighton and Hove Albion (+1.5)	86.2%	88.5%	76.0%	1.16×	1.13
Brighton and Hove Albion (+0.5)	67.7%	68.7%	56.9%	1.21×	1.46
Sunderland (+0.5)	57.6%	57.0%	67.7%	0.84×	1.75
Brighton and Hove Albion (-0.5)	42.4%	43.0%	32.3%	1.33×	2.33
Sunderland (-0.5)	32.3%	31.3%	43.1%	0.73×	3.20
Sunderland (-1.5)	13.8%	11.5%	24.0%	0.48×	8.69
Sunderland (-2.5)	4.7%	3.7%	10.8%	0.35×	26.77

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede	71.8%	76.4%	78.4%	0.97×	1.31
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet	28.2%	23.6%	21.6%	1.09×	4.24

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to concede in 1st half	49.4%	50.8%	51.4%	0.99×	1.97
Brighton and Hove Albion clean sheet in 1st half	50.6%	49.2%	48.6%	1.01×	2.03

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 6.5 corners	80.2%	81.5%	—	—	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 corners	76.2%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Brighton and Hove Albion under 5.5 corners	69.6%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 corners	60.2%	61.8%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion under 4.5 corners	55.8%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Brighton and Hove Albion over 4.5 corners	44.2%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 corners	39.8%	38.2%	—	—	2.62
Brighton and Hove Albion over 5.5 corners	30.4%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 corners	23.8%	24.1%	—	—	4.16
Brighton and Hove Albion over 6.5 corners	19.8%	18.5%	—	—	5.39

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 3.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	94.5%	0.98×	1.08
Brighton and Hove Albion under 2.5 goals	81.2%	81.4%	85.0%	0.96×	1.23
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 goals	77.4%	76.2%	74.9%	1.02×	1.31
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 goals	56.2%	59.5%	60.6%	0.98×	1.68
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 goals	43.8%	40.5%	39.4%	1.03×	2.47
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 goals	22.6%	23.8%	25.1%	0.95×	4.21
Brighton and Hove Albion over 2.5 goals	18.8%	18.6%	15.0%	1.24×	5.38
Brighton and Hove Albion over 3.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	5.5%	1.40×	13.05

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion under 1.5 in 1st half	82.3%	83.0%	89.2%	0.93×	1.20
Brighton and Hove Albion over 0.5 in 1st half	53.2%	56.2%	40.6%	1.38×	1.78
Brighton and Hove Albion under 0.5 in 1st half	46.8%	43.8%	59.4%	0.74×	2.28
Brighton and Hove Albion over 1.5 in 1st half	17.7%	17.0%	10.8%	1.56×	5.90

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (away no bet)	56.0%	57.4%	63.5%	0.90×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	44.0%	42.6%	36.5%	1.17×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion even goals	52.6%	52.8%	53.7%	0.98×	1.89
Brighton and Hove Albion odd goals	47.4%	47.2%	46.3%	1.02×	2.12

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	84.1%	83.0%	80.1%	1.04×	1.21
Both halves over 1.5 goals	15.9%	17.0%	19.9%	0.85×	5.89

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves under 1.5	64.0%	58.1%	70.2%	0.83×	1.72
Both halves under 1.5 goals	36.0%	41.9%	29.8%	1.41×	2.39

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	56.0%	55.1%	61.4%	0.90×	1.82
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 2+ in a row	35.2%	36.4%	29.9%	1.22×	2.75
Sunderland to score 2+ in a row	27.4%	25.0%	39.1%	0.64×	3.99
Either team to score 3+ in a row	19.6%	16.4%	26.2%	0.63×	6.10
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+ in a row	12.0%	12.2%	10.2%	1.20×	8.22
Sunderland to score 3+ in a row	7.9%	5.7%	16.5%	0.34×	17.65

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+3.5)	87.4%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Sunderland corners (+3.5)	81.8%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+2.5)	80.5%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Sunderland corners (+2.5)	73.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (+1.5)	71.4%	70.7%	—	—	1.41
Sunderland corners (+1.5)	63.0%	61.9%	—	—	1.62
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-1.5)	37.0%	38.1%	—	—	2.63
Sunderland corners (-1.5)	28.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-2.5)	26.6%	29.3%	—	—	3.42
Sunderland corners (-2.5)	19.5%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Brighton and Hove Albion corners (-3.5)	18.2%	20.3%	—	—	4.94
Sunderland corners (-3.5)	12.6%	15.5%	—	—	6.46

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	53.7%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
9-11 corners	27.4%	31.2%	—	—	3.20
12+ corners	18.9%	22.7%	—	—	4.41

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	86.9%	83.0%	—	—	1.21
Under 11.5 corners	81.1%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 10.5 corners	73.5%	72.6%	—	—	1.38
Under 9.5 corners	64.3%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 7.5 corners	57.8%	57.8%	—	—	1.73
Under 8.5 corners	53.7%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 8.5 corners	46.3%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 7.5 corners	42.2%	42.2%	—	—	2.37
Over 9.5 corners	35.7%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Over 10.5 corners	26.5%	27.4%	—	—	3.66
Over 11.5 corners	18.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.20
Over 12.5 corners	13.1%	17.0%	—	—	5.88

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.8%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-1	12.0%	11.5%	11.5%	0.99×	8.73
0-1	9.5%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
1-2	8.9%	7.4%	6.9%	1.07×	13.48
0-2	7.0%	7.4%	5.5%	1.34×	13.48
1-0	8.1%	7.4%	6.5%	1.14×	13.48
2-1	7.6%	7.4%	9.0%	0.83×	13.48
0-0	6.4%	7.4%	4.9%	1.53×	13.48
2-0	5.1%	7.4%	6.6%	1.13×	13.48
2-2	5.7%	7.4%	7.6%	0.98×	13.48
0-3	3.5%	1.7%	2.6%	0.67×	58.47
0-4	1.3%	1.7%	1.1%	1.54×	58.48
1-3	4.4%	1.7%	3.2%	0.53×	58.46
1-4	1.6%	1.7%	1.5%	1.18×	58.48
2-3	2.8%	1.7%	2.4%	0.72×	58.47
2-4	1.0%	1.7%	0.7%	2.51×	58.48
3-0	2.2%	1.7%	5.0%	0.34×	58.48
3-1	3.2%	1.7%	5.5%	0.31×	58.47
3-2	2.4%	1.7%	3.1%	0.56×	58.48
3-3	1.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.23×	58.48
3-4	0.4%	1.7%	0.5%	3.34×	58.49
4-0	0.7%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.49
4-1	1.0%	1.7%	2.2%	0.77×	58.48
4-2	0.8%	1.7%	1.4%	1.25×	58.49
4-3	0.4%	1.7%	0.9%	1.82×	58.49
4-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.01×	58.49
Any other score	2.7%	1.7%	4.2%	0.41×	58.47

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT (DNB)	53.8%	56.0%	40.4%	1.39×	1.79
Sunderland leading at HT (DNB)	46.2%	44.0%	59.6%	0.74×	2.27

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland or Brighton and Hove Albion (12)	74.7%	72.1%	75.3%	0.96×	1.39
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (X2)	67.7%	69.6%	56.9%	1.22×	1.44
Sunderland or draw (1X)	57.6%	57.0%	67.7%	0.84×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw at HT	71.1%	74.3%	63.8%	1.16×	1.35
Sunderland or draw at HT	66.5%	66.4%	75.5%	0.88×	1.51
Sunderland or Brighton and Hove Albion at HT	62.4%	62.1%	60.6%	1.02×	1.61

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw (1UP)	67.7%	76.0%	65.2%	1.17×	1.32
Sunderland or draw (1UP)	57.6%	62.7%	74.4%	0.84×	1.59

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion or draw in 2nd half	74.2%	73.8%	63.7%	1.16×	1.36
Sunderland or draw in 2nd half	65.5%	65.5%	67.2%	0.97×	1.53
Sunderland or Brighton and Hove Albion in 2nd half	60.3%	63.8%	69.1%	0.92×	1.57

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	62.3%	61.6%	56.7%	1.09×	1.62
Neither half drawn	37.7%	38.4%	43.3%	0.89×	2.60

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (DNB)	56.7%	58.2%	42.8%	1.36×	1.72
Sunderland (DNB)	43.3%	41.8%	57.2%	0.73×	2.40

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score first	50.6%	53.7%	43.3%	1.24×	1.86
Sunderland to score first	43.1%	41.8%	52.0%	0.80×	2.39
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.37

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams to score	55.6%	54.9%	58.2%	0.94×	1.82
Not both teams to score	44.4%	45.1%	41.8%	1.08×	2.22

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both score & over 2.5	43.6%	41.6%	46.8%	0.89×	2.40
Not both score & under 2.5	36.1%	38.5%	30.0%	1.28×	2.60
Both score & under 2.5	12.0%	12.3%	11.5%	1.07×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	8.4%	8.4%	11.9%	0.71×	11.95

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	84.2%	83.1%	82.2%	1.01×	1.20
Both teams to score 2+	15.8%	16.9%	17.8%	0.95×	5.91

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	77.1%	75.3%	68.9%	1.09×	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	22.9%	24.7%	31.1%	0.79×	4.04

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	56.8%	59.3%	55.9%	1.06×	1.69
Both score 1st half only	20.3%	20.7%	13.1%	1.59×	4.82
Both score 2nd half only	16.9%	15.6%	24.6%	0.64×	6.41
Both score in both halves	6.0%	6.8%	6.7%	1.01×	14.81

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	73.7%	80.0%	80.4%	0.99×	1.25
Both teams to score by HT	26.3%	20.0%	19.6%	1.02×	4.99

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A goal in each half	55.8%	57.2%	61.9%	0.92×	1.75
A half without a goal	44.2%	42.8%	38.1%	1.12×	2.34

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2-3 goals	46.3%	47.4%	46.6%	1.02×	2.11
4-6 goals	27.5%	26.4%	32.7%	0.81×	3.78
0-1 goals	23.9%	22.8%	18.1%	1.26×	4.38
7+ goals	2.3%	1.8%	2.8%	0.65×	54.57

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 1	33.6%	33.8%	35.6%	0.95×	2.96
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 2	25.0%	22.4%	24.5%	0.92×	4.46
Brighton and Hove Albion to score exactly 0	22.6%	22.4%	25.1%	0.89×	4.46
Brighton and Hove Albion to score 3+	18.8%	19.6%	15.0%	1.30×	5.11

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to score exactly 1	35.7%	35.6%	29.6%	1.20×	2.81
Sunderland to score exactly 0	28.2%	26.5%	21.6%	1.23×	3.77
Sunderland to score exactly 2	22.6%	23.2%	26.1%	0.89×	4.30
Sunderland to score 3+	13.5%	14.3%	22.9%	0.63×	6.98

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	37.6%	37.9%	39.4%	0.96×	2.64
Brighton and Hove Albion leading at HT	33.5%	33.6%	24.5%	1.37×	2.97
Sunderland leading at HT	28.9%	25.7%	36.2%	0.71×	3.89

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion -1: 1	57.6%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Brighton and Hove Albion -1: X	21.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24
Brighton and Hove Albion -1: 2	20.7%	23.6%	—	—	4.24

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:1)	67.7%	65.5%	56.9%	1.15×	1.53
Draw (0:1)	18.5%	17.8%	19.2%	0.93×	5.63
Sunderland (0:1)	13.8%	13.9%	24.0%	0.58×	7.22

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:2)	86.2%	86.9%	76.0%	1.14×	1.15
Draw (0:2)	9.2%	7.7%	13.3%	0.58×	12.93
Sunderland (0:2)	4.7%	3.8%	10.8%	0.35×	26.48

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:3)	95.3%	96.6%	89.2%	1.08×	1.04
Draw (0:3)	3.4%	2.4%	7.5%	0.32×	42.11
Sunderland (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	3.3%	0.71×	42.21

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	96.7%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.0%	0.58×	83.57
Sunderland (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	1.4%	0.88×	83.65

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (1:0)	57.6%	58.1%	67.7%	0.86×	1.72
Draw (1:0)	21.7%	21.8%	16.6%	1.32×	4.59
Brighton and Hove Albion (1:0)	20.7%	21.8%	15.8%	1.38×	4.60

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland (2:0)	79.3%	80.4%	84.2%	0.95×	1.24
Draw (2:0)	12.7%	10.4%	9.3%	1.12×	9.63
Brighton and Hove Albion (2:0)	8.0%	6.5%	6.6%	0.98×	15.48

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1st half highest scoring	40.2%	48.7%	25.8%	1.89×	2.06
2nd half highest scoring	34.3%	29.8%	49.7%	0.60×	3.35
Halves equal	25.5%	26.5%	24.7%	1.07×	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede	77.4%	76.0%	74.9%	1.01×	1.32
Sunderland clean sheet	22.6%	24.0%	25.1%	0.96×	4.16

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland to concede in 1st half	53.2%	56.2%	40.6%	1.38×	1.78
Sunderland clean sheet in 1st half	46.8%	43.8%	59.4%	0.74×	2.28

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 6.5 corners	85.0%	81.0%	—	—	1.24
Sunderland under 5.5 corners	75.5%	76.5%	—	—	1.31
Sunderland over 2.5 corners	71.2%	71.9%	—	—	1.39
Sunderland under 4.5 corners	62.4%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Sunderland over 3.5 corners	53.8%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Sunderland under 3.5 corners	46.2%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Sunderland over 4.5 corners	37.6%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Sunderland under 2.5 corners	28.8%	28.1%	—	—	3.56
Sunderland over 5.5 corners	24.5%	23.5%	—	—	4.26
Sunderland over 6.5 corners	15.0%	19.0%	—	—	5.25

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 3.5 goals	96.0%	96.4%	91.6%	1.05×	1.04
Sunderland under 2.5 goals	86.5%	87.3%	77.1%	1.13×	1.15
Sunderland over 0.5 goals	71.8%	74.2%	78.4%	0.95×	1.35
Sunderland under 1.5 goals	63.9%	63.5%	51.1%	1.24×	1.58
Sunderland over 1.5 goals	36.1%	36.5%	48.9%	0.75×	2.74
Sunderland under 0.5 goals	28.2%	25.8%	21.6%	1.20×	3.87
Sunderland over 2.5 goals	13.5%	12.7%	22.9%	0.56×	7.85
Sunderland over 3.5 goals	4.0%	3.6%	8.4%	0.44×	27.44

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland under 1.5 in 1st half	85.1%	89.6%	84.5%	1.06×	1.12
Sunderland over 0.5 in 1st half	49.4%	50.9%	51.4%	0.99×	1.96
Sunderland under 0.5 in 1st half	50.6%	49.1%	48.6%	1.01×	2.04
Sunderland over 1.5 in 1st half	14.9%	10.4%	15.5%	0.67×	9.64

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion (home no bet)	62.6%	60.2%	56.6%	1.06×	1.66
Draw (home no bet)	37.4%	39.8%	43.4%	0.92×	2.51

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland even goals	54.0%	50.6%	53.8%	0.94×	1.97
Sunderland odd goals	46.0%	49.4%	46.2%	1.07×	2.03

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	23.7%	24.1%	27.6%	0.87×	4.15
HT 0-1	18.0%	18.7%	14.8%	1.26×	5.34
HT 1-0	16.1%	18.7%	21.8%	0.86×	5.35
HT 1-1	12.3%	10.9%	10.9%	1.00×	9.16
Any other HT score	7.2%	7.1%	5.3%	1.35×	14.05
HT 0-2	6.8%	7.1%	4.5%	1.57×	14.05
HT 2-0	5.5%	7.1%	8.1%	0.88×	14.07
HT 1-2	4.7%	2.3%	2.8%	0.82×	43.27
HT 2-1	4.2%	2.3%	3.8%	0.62×	43.30
HT 2-2	1.6%	2.3%	1.0%	2.25×	43.49

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	27.1%	26.8%	16.9%	1.59×	3.73
Sunderland at HT / Sunderland at FT	21.0%	21.8%	26.3%	0.83×	4.60
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	14.9%	12.7%	13.6%	0.94×	7.88
Draw at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	13.0%	12.7%	12.0%	1.05×	7.89
Draw at HT / Sunderland at FT	9.7%	6.0%	14.0%	0.43×	16.60
Sunderland at HT / Draw at FT	5.5%	6.0%	6.6%	0.91×	16.72
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Draw at FT	4.9%	3.5%	4.8%	0.73×	28.77
Sunderland at HT / Brighton and Hove Albion at FT	2.3%	3.5%	3.5%	0.99×	28.87
Brighton and Hove Albion at HT / Sunderland at FT	1.6%	3.5%	3.0%	1.16×	28.90

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to score last	50.6%	51.9%	44.9%	1.16×	1.93
Sunderland to score last	43.1%	40.1%	50.3%	0.80×	2.50
No goal scored	6.4%	7.5%	4.9%	1.54×	13.37

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	93.6%	92.6%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 1 at any time	58.6%	55.1%	51.4%	1.07×	1.81
Sunderland to lead by 1 at any time	49.9%	44.1%	62.1%	0.71×	2.27
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	46.5%	44.0%	50.8%	0.87×	2.27
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 2 at any time	27.1%	25.4%	21.2%	1.20×	3.93
Sunderland to lead by 2 at any time	19.7%	15.0%	29.9%	0.50×	6.69
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	16.3%	14.9%	21.2%	0.70×	6.71
Brighton and Hove Albion to lead by 3 at any time	10.1%	10.4%	8.1%	1.29×	9.59
Sunderland to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.6%	13.1%	0.50×	15.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion most corners	48.7%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Sunderland most corners	39.5%	39.4%	—	—	2.54
Corners level	11.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	87.5%	87.4%	88.5%	0.99×	1.14
1-4 goals	79.1%	78.6%	78.2%	1.01×	1.27
2-6 goals	73.8%	72.4%	79.2%	0.91×	1.38
2-5 goals	70.0%	69.0%	75.3%	0.92×	1.45
1-3 goals	63.9%	63.4%	59.8%	1.06×	1.58
2-4 goals	61.6%	63.4%	64.9%	0.98×	1.58
3-6 goals	49.7%	48.7%	55.8%	0.87×	2.06
2-3 goals	46.3%	48.7%	46.6%	1.04×	2.06
3-5 goals	45.8%	48.7%	51.9%	0.94×	2.06
1-2 goals	41.7%	43.6%	36.7%	1.19×	2.30
3-4 goals	37.4%	39.1%	41.6%	0.94×	2.55
4-6 goals	27.5%	30.2%	32.7%	0.93×	3.31
4-5 goals	23.7%	24.5%	28.8%	0.85×	4.09
5-6 goals	12.3%	14.9%	14.3%	1.04×	6.72
7+ goals	2.3%	2.5%	2.8%	0.91×	39.23

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion never behind	43.7%	48.3%	37.9%	1.28×	2.07
Sunderland never behind	35.0%	44.6%	48.6%	0.92×	2.24

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.8%	50.8%	49.0%	1.04×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.2%	49.2%	51.0%	0.96×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	52.8%	51.7%	53.4%	0.97×	1.94
Odd goals in 1st half	47.2%	48.3%	46.6%	1.04×	2.07

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	53.6%	52.1%	51.8%	1.01×	1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half	46.4%	47.9%	48.2%	0.99×	2.09

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	93.9%	92.3%	93.3%	0.99×	1.08
Over 0.5 goals	93.6%	92.3%	95.1%	0.97×	1.08
Under 4.5 goals	85.5%	87.6%	82.9%	1.06×	1.14
Over 1.5 goals	76.1%	77.3%	81.9%	0.94×	1.29
Under 3.5 goals	70.2%	72.5%	64.6%	1.12×	1.38
Over 2.5 goals	51.9%	52.5%	58.5%	0.90×	1.91
Under 2.5 goals	48.1%	47.5%	41.5%	1.15×	2.10
Over 3.5 goals	29.8%	27.5%	35.4%	0.78×	3.64
Under 1.5 goals	23.9%	22.7%	18.1%	1.25×	4.41
Over 4.5 goals	14.5%	12.4%	17.1%	0.72×	8.09
Under 0.5 goals	6.4%	7.7%	4.9%	1.59×	12.93
Over 5.5 goals	6.1%	7.7%	6.7%	1.15×	12.93

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	97.7%	97.2%	97.1%	1.00×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	93.3%	92.5%	92.5%	1.00×	1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	82.9%	81.1%	79.1%	1.02×	1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	68.5%	67.4%	76.4%	0.88×	1.48
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	61.7%	62.1%	53.9%	1.15×	1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	38.3%	37.9%	46.1%	0.82×	2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	31.5%	32.6%	23.6%	1.38×	3.07
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	17.1%	18.9%	20.9%	0.91×	5.28
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	6.7%	7.5%	7.5%	1.00×	13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	2.3%	2.8%	2.9%	0.94×	36.15

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	82.3%	86.2%	87.4%	0.99×	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	76.3%	78.7%	72.4%	1.09×	1.27
Under 1.5 in 1st half	57.8%	62.7%	64.1%	0.98×	1.59
Over 1.5 in 1st half	42.2%	37.3%	35.9%	1.04×	2.68
Under 0.5 in 1st half	23.7%	21.3%	27.6%	0.77×	4.70
Over 2.5 in 1st half	17.7%	13.8%	12.6%	1.09×	7.26

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	85.4%	85.2%	75.9%	1.12×	1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	73.1%	77.7%	84.7%	0.92×	1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	62.2%	61.7%	45.8%	1.35×	1.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	37.8%	38.3%	54.2%	0.71×	2.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	26.9%	22.3%	15.3%	1.46×	4.49
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	14.6%	14.8%	24.1%	0.61×	6.78

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to score in both halves	78.1%	78.3%	68.7%	1.14×	1.28
Brighton and Hove Albion not to score in both halves	72.5%	73.8%	76.8%	0.96×	1.36
Brighton and Hove Albion to score in both halves	27.5%	26.2%	23.2%	1.13×	3.82
Sunderland to score in both halves	21.9%	21.7%	31.3%	0.69×	4.60

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both teams score	55.6%	58.4%	58.2%	1.00×	1.71
Only Brighton and Hove Albion scores	21.8%	22.3%	16.8%	1.33×	4.48
Only Sunderland scores	16.2%	16.1%	20.3%	0.79×	6.22
Neither team scores	6.4%	7.2%	4.9%	1.48×	13.92

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 2 goals	24.1%	22.6%	23.5%	0.96×	4.42
Exactly 3 goals	22.2%	22.6%	23.2%	0.97×	4.42
Exactly 1 goals	17.5%	17.4%	13.3%	1.31×	5.74
Exactly 4 goals	15.3%	17.4%	18.4%	0.95×	5.74
Exactly 5 goals	8.4%	7.6%	10.4%	0.73×	13.08
Exactly 0 goals	6.4%	7.6%	4.9%	1.57×	13.09
6 or more goals	6.1%	7.6%	6.7%	1.13×	13.09

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half	37.8%	39.8%	54.2%	0.73×	2.52
1 goal in 2nd half	35.3%	39.4%	30.6%	1.29×	2.54
No goals in 2nd half	26.9%	29.8%	15.3%	1.95×	3.36

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win both halves	92.6%	93.9%	86.5%	1.09×	1.06
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win both halves	88.4%	87.9%	91.2%	0.96×	1.14
Brighton and Hove Albion to win both halves	11.6%	12.1%	8.8%	1.37×	8.29
Sunderland to win both halves	7.4%	6.1%	13.5%	0.45×	16.52

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Brighton and Hove Albion to win either half	56.5%	59.4%	48.5%	1.22×	1.68
Sunderland to win neither half	52.8%	55.0%	41.0%	1.34×	1.82
Sunderland to win either half	47.2%	45.0%	59.0%	0.76×	2.22
Brighton and Hove Albion to win neither half	43.5%	40.6%	51.5%	0.79×	2.47

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Sunderland not to win to nil	83.8%	83.0%	79.7%	1.04×	1.20
Brighton and Hove Albion not to win to nil	78.2%	78.1%	83.2%	0.94×	1.28
Brighton and Hove Albion to win to nil	21.8%	21.9%	16.8%	1.31×	4.56
Sunderland to win to nil	16.2%	17.0%	20.3%	0.84×	5.89

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw	25.3%	27.8%	24.7%	1.13×	3.59
Brighton and Hove Albion by 1	21.7%	24.1%	16.6%	1.46×	4.14
Sunderland by 1	18.5%	16.9%	19.2%	0.88×	5.91
Brighton and Hove Albion by 2	12.7%	11.8%	9.3%	1.27×	8.47
Sunderland by 2	9.2%	7.3%	13.3%	0.55×	13.77
Brighton and Hove Albion by 3+	8.0%	7.3%	6.6%	1.10×	13.78
Sunderland by 3+	4.7%	2.7%	10.8%	0.25×	36.93