Sunderland v Everton — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 3 November 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 8
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
12 – 5
xG per shot
0.07 – 0.13
Set-piece xG
0.52 – 0.00
Goals − xG
-0.18 – -0.01
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
39.3%
Draw
33.3%
Everton win
27.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Everton have scored 15 from 13.7 expected and conceded 18 from 18.2 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
DLLDDLLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 13.7 xG
conceded 18
from 18.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.04–0.82 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.03–1.04 | 1-1 14% | 34% | 42% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 1.18 xGEverton 1.01 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Everton attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Everton |
James Garner | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 6' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall |
| 6' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Idrissa Gueye |
| 13' |
 Sunderland |
Bertrand Traoré | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 14' |
Everton |
Iliman Ndiaye | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 21' |
Everton |
Jack Grealish | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Shot On Post | Idrissa Gueye |
| 22' |
Everton |
Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 27' |
Everton |
Thierno Barry | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jack Grealish |
| 34' |
Sunderland |
Bertrand Traoré | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Sunderland |
Lutsharel Geertruida | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 38' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 40' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Trai Hume |
| 41' |
Sunderland |
Bertrand Traoré | 0.09 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 43' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 45' |
Sunderland |
Granit Xhaka | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Enzo Le Fée |
| 48' |
Sunderland |
Enzo Le Fée | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 62' |
Sunderland |
Noah Sadiki | 0.05 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Trai Hume |
| 62' |
Sunderland |
Reinildo | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dan Ballard |
| 70' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Bertrand Traoré |
| 73' |
Sunderland |
Dan Ballard | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 76' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 80' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.25 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 80' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Noah Sadiki |
| 84' |
Everton |
Vitalii Mykolenko | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Everton
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Grealish AML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.59 | 0.73 |
| Vitalii Mykolenko DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| James Garner DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Jordan Pickford GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| James Tarkowski DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Michael Keane DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.12 | 0.82 |
| Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall AMC | 85 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.11 | 0.82 |
| Jake O'Brien DR | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Iliman Ndiaye AMR | 64 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Thierno Barry FW | 59 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.69 |
| Beto Sub | 31 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dwight McNeil Sub | 26 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim Iroegbunam Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Carlos Alcaraz Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.31 |
| Dan Ballard DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Enzo Le Fée FWL | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.12 | 0.25 |
| Trai Hume DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 0.18 |
| Reinildo DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
| Noah Sadiki MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.06 | 0.23 |
| Granit Xhaka MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 0.04 | 0.48 | 0.28 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.22 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Wilson Isidor FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.00 | 0.36 |
| Bertrand Traoré FWR | 84 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Chemsdine Talbi Sub | 6 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Brian Brobbey Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |