Sunderland v Leeds United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 28 December 2025 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
8 – 17
On target
3 – 5
Shots in box
8 – 11
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.15
Set-piece xG
0.04 – 0.62
Goals − xG
+0.19 – -1.61
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
56.2%
Draw
24.8%
Leeds United win
19.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Leeds United are finishing below their chances — 3.3 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWDWLWDD last 10
scored 15
from 18.3 xG
conceded 10
from 15.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.64–0.84 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.04–1.17 | 1-1 13% | 38% | 45% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 0.81 xGLeeds United 2.61 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Leeds United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Sunderland |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 3' |
Sunderland |
Nordi Mukiele | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 9' |
 Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 13' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.09 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Pascal Struijk |
| 27' |
Sunderland |
Simon Adingra | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Granit Xhaka |
| 33' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 33' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 38' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.36 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dominic Calvert-Lewin |
| 39' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pascal Struijk |
| 46' |
Leeds United |
Dominic Calvert-Lewin | 0.54 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Brenden Aaronson |
| 46' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.30 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Chris Rigg |
| 47' |
Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.16 | Open Play | — | Shot On Post | Simon Adingra |
| 49' |
Leeds United |
Jayden Bogle | 0.61 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 52' |
Leeds United |
Jaka Bijol | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Anton Stach |
| 55' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ao Tanaka |
| 58' |
Leeds United |
Ao Tanaka | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 59' |
Leeds United |
Brenden Aaronson | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Noah Okafor |
| 65' |
Leeds United |
Noah Okafor | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gabriel Gudmundsson |
| 66' |
Leeds United |
Anton Stach | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 66' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 69' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.39 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Anton Stach |
| 70' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 74' |
Leeds United |
Ethan Ampadu | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Brenden Aaronson |
| 75' |
Sunderland |
Eliezer Mayenda | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 83' |
Sunderland |
Omar Alderete | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
Players
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Simon Adingra AML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.16 | 0.40 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Dennis Cirkin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.61 |
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.19 | 0.61 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 73 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.45 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Chris Rigg AMR | 73 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 0.45 |
| Eliezer Mayenda Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 17 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Leeds United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jayden Bogle DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.61 | 0.00 | 1.19 |
| Dominic Calvert-Lewin FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.54 | 0.36 | 0.90 |
| Brenden Aaronson MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0.49 | 1.35 | 1.80 |
| Ethan Ampadu MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 1.66 |
| Anton Stach MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.13 | 0.49 | 1.50 |
| Jaka Bijol DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| Gabriel Gudmundsson DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1.27 |
| Lucas Perri GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.53 |
| Pascal Struijk DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 1.28 |
| Noah Okafor FW | 78 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1.27 |
| Ao Tanaka Sub | 60 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1.77 |
| Joe Rodon DC | 30 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lukas Nmecha Sub | 12 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wilfried Gnonto Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |