Sunderland v Manchester City — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Thursday 1 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
10 – 14
On target
4 – 4
Shots in box
7 – 12
xG per shot
0.10 – 0.18
Set-piece xG
0.07 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.96 – -2.51
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Sunderland win
23.4%
Draw
26.6%
Manchester City win
50.0%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Sunderland have scored 13 from 14.6 expected and conceded 15 from 15.4 — both ends in line with the chances, so the recent record is a fair reflection.
WLLDDWWLWD last 10
scored 13
from 14.6 xG
conceded 15
from 15.4 xG
Manchester City are finishing below their chances — 2.7 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WWDWWDLWWW last 10
scored 21
from 23.7 xG
conceded 9
from 13.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.92–1.48 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 0.85–1.77 | 0-1 13% | 49% | 48% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Sunderland 0.96 xGManchester City 2.51 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Sunderland attacking right
Manchester City attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16' |
 Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.03 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 18' |
 Sunderland |
Brian Brobbey | 0.28 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nordi Mukiele |
| 21' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 33' |
Sunderland |
Eliezer Mayenda | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 34' |
Sunderland |
Eliezer Mayenda | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 36' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.39 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 39' |
Sunderland |
Simon Adingra | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Brian Brobbey |
| 46' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.55 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mathis Cherki |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Erling Haaland | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Manchester City |
Sávio | 0.21 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Phil Foden |
| 47' |
Sunderland |
Trai Hume | 0.19 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 51' |
Sunderland |
Simon Adingra | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 53' |
Sunderland |
Eliezer Mayenda | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Enzo Le Fée |
| 64' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.28 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | Rodri |
| 67' |
Manchester City |
Bernardo Silva | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Phil Foden |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Jéremy Doku | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Nathan Aké |
| 69' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 70' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.09 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 73' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Shot On Post | Matheus Nunes |
| 80' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Granit Xhaka |
| 88' |
Manchester City |
Josko Gvardiol | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Erling Haaland |
| 88' |
Manchester City |
Phil Foden | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Rodri |
| 92' |
Sunderland |
Wilson Isidor | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 93' |
Manchester City |
Tijjani Reijnders | 0.06 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Manchester City
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erling Haaland FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.10 | 0.62 |
| Phil Foden MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.70 | 1.77 |
| Bernardo Silva MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 1.44 |
| Rúben Dias DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.70 |
| Nathan Aké DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 0.93 |
| Mathis Cherki AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.55 | 1.34 |
| Matheus Nunes DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.89 |
| Gianluigi Donnarumma GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Nico O'Reilly DL | 62 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Sávio AMC | 56 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.76 | 0.00 | 1.15 |
| Nico González MC | 51 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Rodri Sub | 39 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.33 | 1.58 |
| Jéremy Doku Sub | 34 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Josko Gvardiol Sub | 28 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.55 |
| Tijjani Reijnders Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
Sunderland
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trai Hume DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.29 | 0.00 | 0.45 |
| Eliezer Mayenda AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.32 |
| Nordi Mukiele DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.46 |
| Robin Roefs GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Omar Alderete DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Lutsharel Geertruida DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Granit Xhaka DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.42 |
| Enzo Le Fée AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.46 |
| Dennis Cirkin DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Simon Adingra AML | 77 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.35 |
| Brian Brobbey FW | 63 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.03 | 0.50 |
| Wilson Isidor Sub | 27 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Romaine Mundle Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |