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Sutton United v Eastleigh — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Tuesday 15 September 2026 · ENG-National League · 2627

ENG-National League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Sutton United win
36.0%
Draw
21.8%
Eastleigh win
42.2%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.19–1.32 0-1 13% 46% 48%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to win 47.5% 47.5% 43.7% 1.09× 2.11
Eastleigh to win 28.5% 27.9% 33.6% 0.83× 3.59
Draw 24.0% 24.4% 22.8% 1.07× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United & not both score 25.1% 25.2% 21.9% 1.15× 3.97
Sutton United & both teams score 22.4% 21.9% 22.0% 0.99× 4.57
Draw & both teams score 18.1% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Eastleigh & not both score 14.5% 13.3% 16.5% 0.80× 7.55
Eastleigh & both teams score 14.0% 13.3% 17.3% 0.77× 7.55
Draw & not both score 5.9% 8.4% 4.8% 1.76× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United & over 1.5 37.1% 34.9% 34.4% 1.02× 2.86
Sutton United & under 3.5 32.0% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Sutton United & over 2.5 29.1% 26.0% 29.0% 0.90× 3.84
Eastleigh & over 1.5 20.7% 21.6% 27.7% 0.78× 4.62
Eastleigh & under 3.5 20.7% 21.6% 24.2% 0.89× 4.62
Sutton United & under 2.5 18.4% 18.0% 14.9% 1.21× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 18.1% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 17.2% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 17.2% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Sutton United & over 3.5 15.5% 18.0% 15.8% 1.14× 5.56
Eastleigh & over 2.5 16.4% 18.0% 21.6% 0.83× 5.56
Eastleigh & under 2.5 12.1% 12.9% 12.2% 1.05× 7.78
Sutton United & under 1.5 10.5% 12.9% 9.5% 1.35× 7.78
Eastleigh & under 1.5 7.8% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.69
Eastleigh & over 3.5 7.8% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 5.9% 7.9% 4.8% 1.66× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (1UP) 62.6% 63.2% 1.58
Eastleigh (1UP) 46.2% 42.8% 2.33
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (2UP) 47.5% 49.9% 2.00
Eastleigh (2UP) 28.5% 24.7% 4.05
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to win 2nd half 38.5% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 34.6% 34.5% 2.90
Eastleigh to win 2nd half 26.9% 26.2% 3.81
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (+2.5) 90.0% 88.5% 89.7% 0.99× 1.13
Eastleigh (+1.5) 75.7% 78.5% 79.4% 0.99× 1.28
Sutton United (+0.5) 71.5% 73.7% 66.4% 1.11× 1.36
Eastleigh (+0.5) 52.5% 52.3% 56.3% 0.93× 1.91
Sutton United (-0.5) 47.5% 47.7% 43.7% 1.09× 2.10
Eastleigh (-0.5) 28.5% 26.3% 33.6% 0.78× 3.80
Sutton United (-1.5) 24.3% 21.5% 20.6% 1.05× 4.64
Sutton United (-2.5) 10.0% 11.5% 10.3% 1.12× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh to concede 79.7% 79.0% 78.9% 1.00× 1.27
Eastleigh clean sheet 20.3% 21.0% 21.1% 1.00× 4.77
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh to concede in 1st half 49.6% 51.0% 1.96
Eastleigh clean sheet in 1st half 50.4% 49.0% 2.04
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh under 3.5 goals 96.9% 97.6% 96.4% 1.01× 1.03
Eastleigh under 2.5 goals 88.5% 87.9% 84.5% 1.04× 1.14
Eastleigh over 0.5 goals 69.1% 68.0% 73.5% 0.92× 1.47
Eastleigh under 1.5 goals 67.2% 68.0% 59.4% 1.14× 1.47
Eastleigh over 1.5 goals 32.8% 32.0% 40.6% 0.79× 3.12
Eastleigh under 0.5 goals 30.9% 32.0% 26.5% 1.21× 3.12
Eastleigh over 2.5 goals 11.5% 12.1% 15.5% 0.78× 8.26
Eastleigh over 3.5 goals 3.1% 2.4% 3.6% 0.67× 41.03
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh under 1.5 in 1st half 91.9% 94.1% 1.06
Eastleigh under 0.5 in 1st half 62.6% 64.4% 1.55
Eastleigh over 0.5 in 1st half 37.5% 35.6% 2.81
Eastleigh over 1.5 in 1st half 8.1% 5.9% 17.00
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (away no bet) 66.5% 66.5% 65.7% 1.01× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.5% 33.6% 34.3% 0.98× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh even goals 54.8% 52.8% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
Eastleigh odd goals 45.2% 47.2% 45.6% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 84.6% 83.3% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 15.4% 16.7% 5.99
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 64.4% 57.9% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 35.6% 42.1% 2.38
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 56.7% 55.4% 1.81
Sutton United to score 2+ in a row 38.9% 36.4% 2.75
Eastleigh to score 2+ in a row 24.2% 19.4% 5.17
Either team to score 3+ in a row 20.4% 19.3% 5.19
Sutton United to score 3+ in a row 14.3% 12.0% 8.30
Eastleigh to score 3+ in a row 6.4% 5.5% 18.03
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 11.3% 11.5% 11.6% 0.99× 8.73
1-0 10.5% 11.4% 9.5% 1.20× 8.73
2-1 9.4% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.46
0-1 7.8% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.46
1-2 6.9% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
2-0 8.0% 7.4% 5.5% 1.34× 13.46
0-0 5.9% 7.4% 4.8% 1.56× 13.46
2-2 5.5% 7.4% 5.1% 1.46× 13.46
3-1 5.0% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.56
0-2 4.3% 1.7% 6.3% 0.27× 58.57
0-3 1.7% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.58
0-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
1-3 2.7% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.58
1-4 0.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.59
2-3 2.1% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.58
2-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
3-0 4.2% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.57
3-2 2.9% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.58
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
3-4 0.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
4-0 1.7% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.58
4-1 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.58
4-2 1.2% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
4-3 0.5% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
Any other score 3.0% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United leading at HT (DNB) 62.0% 66.2% 1.51
Eastleigh leading at HT (DNB) 38.0% 33.8% 2.96
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United or Eastleigh (12) 76.1% 75.6% 77.2% 0.98× 1.32
Sutton United or draw (1X) 71.5% 72.1% 66.4% 1.09× 1.39
Eastleigh or draw (X2) 52.5% 52.5% 56.3% 0.93× 1.90
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United or draw at HT 78.1% 80.1% 1.25
Eastleigh or draw at HT 64.3% 62.2% 1.61
Sutton United or Eastleigh at HT 57.6% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United or draw (1UP) 71.5% 79.9% 1.25
Eastleigh or draw (1UP) 52.5% 58.8% 1.70
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United or draw in 2nd half 73.1% 73.8% 1.36
Sutton United or Eastleigh in 2nd half 65.4% 65.5% 1.53
Eastleigh or draw in 2nd half 61.5% 63.9% 1.57
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 62.8% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 37.2% 38.4% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (DNB) 62.5% 62.9% 56.6% 1.11× 1.59
Eastleigh (DNB) 37.5% 37.1% 43.4% 0.85× 2.69
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to score first 54.2% 54.3% 1.84
Eastleigh to score first 39.9% 32.7% 3.06
No goal scored 5.9% 7.3% 13.63
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 54.6% 51.5% 57.2% 0.90× 1.94
Not both teams to score 45.4% 48.5% 42.8% 1.13× 2.06
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 43.3% 41.6% 45.8% 0.91× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 36.4% 38.5% 31.5% 1.22× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 11.3% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 9.0% 8.4% 11.4% 0.73× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.5% 83.2% 82.7% 1.01× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.5% 16.8% 17.3% 0.97× 5.95
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.0% 74.4% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 30.0% 25.6% 3.90
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.1% 59.8% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.4% 21.2% 4.72
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 5.6% 6.7% 15.02
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.5% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.5% 17.2% 5.82
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 54.6% 53.5% 1.87
A half without a goal 45.4% 46.5% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 45.8% 47.4% 48.3% 0.98× 2.11
4-6 goals 27.7% 26.4% 29.5% 0.90× 3.78
0-1 goals 24.1% 22.8% 20.0% 1.14× 4.38
7+ goals 2.3% 1.8% 2.5% 0.71× 55.20
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh to score exactly 1 36.3% 36.0% 33.1% 1.09× 2.78
Eastleigh to score exactly 0 30.9% 33.9% 26.5% 1.28× 2.95
Eastleigh to score exactly 2 21.3% 22.4% 25.2% 0.89× 4.47
Eastleigh to score 3+ 11.5% 12.8% 15.5% 0.82× 7.81
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to score exactly 1 32.4% 32.6% 33.8% 0.97× 3.06
Sutton United to score exactly 2 25.8% 26.5% 23.6% 1.12× 3.77
Sutton United to score 3+ 21.5% 23.3% 21.9% 1.06× 4.30
Sutton United to score exactly 0 20.3% 23.3% 21.1% 1.10× 4.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 42.4% 43.2% 2.32
Sutton United leading at HT 35.7% 37.8% 2.65
Eastleigh leading at HT 21.9% 19.9% 5.01
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United -1: 2 52.5% 52.1% 1.92
Sutton United -1: 1 24.3% 23.6% 4.24
Sutton United -1: X 23.2% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (0:1) 52.5% 51.2% 56.3% 0.91× 1.95
Sutton United (0:1) 24.3% 24.3% 20.6% 1.18× 4.11
Draw (0:1) 23.2% 24.3% 23.3% 1.04× 4.12
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (0:2) 75.7% 79.4% 79.4% 1.00× 1.26
Draw (0:2) 14.3% 11.0% 10.5% 1.05× 9.08
Sutton United (0:2) 10.0% 11.0% 10.3% 1.07× 9.10
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (0:3) 90.0% 90.8% 89.7% 1.01× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 6.6% 5.8% 5.5% 1.05× 17.25
Sutton United (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 4.9% 0.48× 41.99
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 95.1% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.4% 1.2% 3.6% 0.33× 83.19
Sutton United (0:4) 1.0% 1.2% 1.4% 0.84× 83.36
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (1:0) 71.5% 72.5% 66.4% 1.09× 1.38
Draw (1:0) 17.2% 17.0% 17.6% 0.97× 5.87
Eastleigh (1:0) 11.3% 12.8% 16.2% 0.79× 7.81
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (2:0) 88.7% 88.4% 83.8% 1.05× 1.13
Draw (2:0) 7.7% 6.5% 10.1% 0.64× 15.48
Eastleigh (2:0) 3.6% 2.3% 6.2% 0.37× 44.18
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 48.4% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.6% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 24.1% 24.3% 4.12
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to concede 69.1% 66.5% 73.5% 0.90× 1.50
Sutton United clean sheet 30.9% 33.5% 26.5% 1.26× 2.99
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United clean sheet in 1st half 62.6% 64.5% 1.55
Sutton United to concede in 1st half 37.5% 35.5% 2.81
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United under 3.5 goals 92.2% 92.2% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Sutton United over 0.5 goals 79.7% 77.7% 78.9% 0.98× 1.29
Sutton United under 2.5 goals 78.5% 77.7% 78.1% 0.99× 1.29
Sutton United under 1.5 goals 52.7% 53.3% 54.7% 0.98× 1.88
Sutton United over 1.5 goals 47.3% 46.7% 45.3% 1.03× 2.14
Sutton United over 2.5 goals 21.5% 22.3% 21.9% 1.02× 4.49
Sutton United under 0.5 goals 20.3% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.49
Sutton United over 3.5 goals 7.8% 7.8% 8.9% 0.87× 12.89
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United under 1.5 in 1st half 84.9% 84.8% 1.18
Sutton United over 0.5 in 1st half 49.6% 51.1% 1.96
Sutton United under 0.5 in 1st half 50.4% 48.9% 2.04
Sutton United over 1.5 in 1st half 15.1% 15.2% 6.59
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh (home no bet) 54.4% 51.6% 59.6% 0.87× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 45.6% 48.4% 40.4% 1.20× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United even goals 52.1% 50.6% 50.6% 1.00× 1.98
Sutton United odd goals 47.9% 49.4% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 31.5% 32.4% 3.08
HT 1-0 21.7% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 14.9% 11.1% 9.02
HT 1-1 10.1% 11.0% 9.07
HT 2-0 7.4% 7.1% 14.10
Any other HT score 4.4% 2.2% 44.59
HT 0-2 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 2-1 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 1-2 2.4% 2.2% 44.75
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.2% 44.88
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United at HT / Sutton United at FT 28.4% 26.7% 3.75
Draw at HT / Sutton United at FT 16.6% 16.8% 5.96
Eastleigh at HT / Eastleigh at FT 14.8% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 14.2% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Eastleigh at FT 11.6% 12.7% 7.90
Sutton United at HT / Draw at FT 5.2% 6.0% 16.64
Eastleigh at HT / Draw at FT 4.6% 3.4% 29.10
Eastleigh at HT / Sutton United at FT 2.5% 3.4% 29.18
Sutton United at HT / Eastleigh at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to score last 54.2% 52.0% 1.92
Eastleigh to score last 40.0% 38.4% 2.60
No goal scored 5.9% 7.3% 13.63
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 94.1% 92.8% 1.08
Sutton United to lead by 1 at any time 62.6% 61.5% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 47.3% 44.0% 2.27
Eastleigh to lead by 1 at any time 46.2% 44.0% 2.28
Sutton United to lead by 2 at any time 30.8% 29.4% 3.40
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 17.2% 14.9% 6.70
Eastleigh to lead by 2 at any time 16.7% 14.9% 6.71
Sutton United to lead by 3 at any time 12.3% 10.5% 9.57
Eastleigh to lead by 3 at any time 4.9% 1.6% 60.93
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.9% 87.4% 88.1% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.4% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.6% 72.4% 77.7% 0.93× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.7% 69.0% 72.9% 0.95× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.1% 63.5% 63.6% 1.00× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.5% 62.4% 1.02× 1.58
3-6 goals 49.9% 48.7% 54.7% 0.89× 2.06
3-5 goals 46.0% 48.7% 49.9% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 45.8% 48.7% 48.3% 1.01× 2.06
1-2 goals 41.9% 43.6% 38.4% 1.14× 2.29
3-4 goals 37.5% 39.2% 39.5% 0.99× 2.55
4-6 goals 27.7% 30.2% 29.5% 1.02× 3.31
4-5 goals 23.8% 24.5% 24.7% 0.99× 4.09
5-6 goals 12.4% 14.9% 15.4% 0.97× 6.73
7+ goals 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 1.00× 39.47
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United never behind 48.0% 57.1% 1.75
Eastleigh never behind 31.5% 35.4% 2.83
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.3% 50.8% 47.5% 1.07× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.7% 49.2% 52.5% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.8% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 45.2% 48.4% 2.07
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.7% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.3% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 95.2% 0.97× 1.08
Under 5.5 goals 93.8% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 85.3% 87.7% 82.3% 1.07× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.9% 77.4% 80.0% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 70.0% 66.3% 68.1% 0.97× 1.51
Over 2.5 goals 52.2% 52.4% 57.1% 0.92× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 47.8% 47.6% 42.9% 1.11× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 30.0% 33.7% 31.9% 1.06× 2.97
Under 1.5 goals 24.1% 22.6% 20.0% 1.13× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 14.7% 12.3% 17.8% 0.70× 8.11
Over 5.5 goals 6.2% 7.7% 7.3% 1.06× 12.95
Under 0.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 4.8% 1.62× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.6% 97.3% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.2% 92.5% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 82.6% 81.1% 79.3% 1.02× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 68.4% 67.3% 74.1% 0.91× 1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 61.4% 62.1% 57.4% 1.08× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 38.6% 37.9% 42.6% 0.89× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 31.6% 32.7% 25.9% 1.26× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 17.4% 18.9% 20.7% 0.91× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.8% 7.5% 8.1% 0.93× 13.27
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.4% 2.7% 2.7% 1.03× 36.38
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 88.9% 89.4% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 68.5% 69.0% 1.45
Under 1.5 in 1st half 68.0% 69.0% 1.45
Over 1.5 in 1st half 32.0% 31.0% 3.23
Under 0.5 in 1st half 31.5% 31.0% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 11.1% 10.6% 9.39
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 80.2% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 78.0% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 52.3% 53.1% 1.89
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 47.7% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 22.0% 20.0% 4.99
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 19.8% 17.1% 5.83
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh not to score in both halves 81.1% 84.2% 1.19
Sutton United not to score in both halves 70.4% 74.2% 1.35
Sutton United to score in both halves 29.6% 25.8% 3.87
Eastleigh to score in both halves 18.9% 15.8% 6.33
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 54.6% 54.0% 57.2% 0.94× 1.85
Only Sutton United scores 25.1% 26.1% 21.9% 1.19× 3.83
Only Eastleigh scores 14.5% 11.0% 16.5% 0.66× 9.13
Neither team scores 5.9% 7.2% 4.8% 1.51× 13.96
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 23.6% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.2% 22.6% 25.4% 0.89× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 18.3% 17.5% 15.4% 1.14× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 15.3% 17.4% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 8.5% 7.6% 10.6% 0.72× 13.13
6 or more goals 6.2% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.14
Exactly 0 goals 5.9% 7.6% 4.8% 1.60× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 47.7% 44.8% 2.23
1 goal in 2nd half 32.5% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 19.8% 17.0% 5.89
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh not to win both halves 94.2% 94.0% 1.06
Sutton United not to win both halves 86.3% 88.0% 1.14
Sutton United to win both halves 13.7% 12.0% 8.35
Eastleigh to win both halves 5.8% 6.0% 16.69
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to win either half 60.6% 65.3% 1.53
Eastleigh to win neither half 57.0% 59.4% 1.68
Eastleigh to win either half 43.0% 40.6% 2.46
Sutton United to win neither half 39.4% 34.7% 2.88
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Eastleigh not to win to nil 85.5% 88.2% 83.5% 1.06× 1.13
Sutton United not to win to nil 74.9% 75.3% 78.1% 0.96× 1.33
Sutton United to win to nil 25.1% 24.7% 21.9% 1.13× 4.05
Eastleigh to win to nil 14.5% 11.8% 16.5% 0.72× 8.47
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 24.0% 24.1% 22.8% 1.06× 4.14
Sutton United by 1 23.2% 24.1% 23.3% 1.04× 4.14
Eastleigh by 1 17.2% 16.9% 17.6% 0.96× 5.90
Sutton United by 2 14.3% 11.8% 10.5% 1.13× 8.46
Sutton United by 3+ 10.0% 11.8% 10.3% 1.15× 8.47
Eastleigh by 2 7.7% 7.2% 10.1% 0.71× 13.80
Eastleigh by 3+ 3.6% 2.7% 6.2% 0.44× 36.96
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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