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Sutton United v Scunthorpe United — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ENG-National League · 2627

ENG-National League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

dc-xg No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.
Sutton United win
35.1%
Draw
23.3%
Scunthorpe United win
41.5%

Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.43–1.58 1-1 11% 58% 60%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to win 41.5% 43.0% 33.6% 1.28× 2.33
Sutton United to win 35.1% 36.4% 43.7% 0.83× 2.75
Draw 23.3% 24.4% 22.8% 1.07× 4.09
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United & both teams score 22.2% 21.9% 17.3% 1.27× 4.57
Scunthorpe United & not both score 19.3% 17.9% 16.5% 1.09× 5.58
Sutton United & both teams score 19.0% 17.9% 22.0% 0.81× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 18.8% 17.9% 18.2% 0.98× 5.58
Sutton United & not both score 16.1% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.58
Draw & not both score 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 1.03× 20.47
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United & over 1.5 33.3% 30.9% 27.7% 1.11× 3.24
Sutton United & over 1.5 27.7% 26.0% 34.4% 0.76× 3.84
Scunthorpe United & over 2.5 27.2% 26.0% 21.6% 1.21× 3.84
Scunthorpe United & under 3.5 26.3% 26.0% 24.2% 1.07× 3.84
Sutton United & over 2.5 22.6% 21.6% 29.0% 0.75× 4.62
Sutton United & under 3.5 22.9% 21.6% 28.1% 0.77× 4.62
Draw & over 1.5 18.8% 18.0% 18.2% 0.99× 5.56
Draw & under 2.5 15.2% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 15.2% 18.0% 16.2% 1.11× 5.56
Scunthorpe United & over 3.5 15.2% 18.0% 9.5% 1.89× 5.56
Scunthorpe United & under 2.5 14.3% 12.9% 12.2% 1.05× 7.77
Sutton United & under 2.5 12.5% 12.9% 14.9% 0.86× 7.78
Sutton United & over 3.5 12.2% 12.9% 15.8% 0.81× 7.78
Sutton United & under 1.5 7.5% 7.9% 9.5% 0.83× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 8.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 8.1% 7.9% 6.8% 1.16× 12.69
Scunthorpe United & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 6.0% 1.31× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 4.5% 4.8% 4.8% 1.01× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (1UP) 59.0% 58.1% 1.72
Sutton United (1UP) 53.6% 52.8% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (2UP) 41.5% 47.5% 2.10
Sutton United (2UP) 35.1% 36.8% 2.72
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to win 2nd half 37.1% 36.1% 2.77
2nd half drawn 32.9% 34.5% 2.90
Sutton United to win 2nd half 30.0% 26.3% 3.80
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (+2.5) 94.1% 92.1% 89.7% 1.03× 1.09
Scunthorpe United (+1.5) 83.9% 82.4% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Scunthorpe United (+0.5) 64.9% 62.9% 56.3% 1.12× 1.59
Sutton United (+0.5) 58.5% 57.0% 66.4% 0.86× 1.75
Scunthorpe United (-0.5) 41.5% 43.0% 33.6% 1.28× 2.33
Sutton United (-0.5) 35.1% 37.1% 43.7% 0.85× 2.70
Sutton United (-1.5) 16.1% 17.6% 20.6% 0.85× 5.69
Sutton United (-2.5) 5.9% 7.9% 10.3% 0.77× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to concede 76.2% 79.0% 78.9% 1.00× 1.27
Scunthorpe United clean sheet 23.8% 21.0% 21.1% 1.00× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to concede in 1st half 46.0% 50.8% 1.97
Scunthorpe United clean sheet in 1st half 54.0% 49.2% 2.03
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United under 3.5 goals 92.4% 92.3% 96.4% 0.96× 1.08
Scunthorpe United over 0.5 goals 79.4% 76.2% 73.5% 1.04× 1.31
Scunthorpe United under 2.5 goals 78.9% 76.2% 84.5% 0.90× 1.31
Scunthorpe United under 1.5 goals 53.2% 53.7% 59.4% 0.90× 1.86
Scunthorpe United over 1.5 goals 46.8% 46.3% 40.6% 1.14× 2.16
Scunthorpe United over 2.5 goals 21.1% 23.8% 15.5% 1.53× 4.21
Scunthorpe United under 0.5 goals 20.6% 23.8% 26.5% 0.90× 4.21
Scunthorpe United over 3.5 goals 7.6% 7.7% 3.6% 2.10× 13.07
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United under 1.5 in 1st half 86.8% 89.5% 1.12
Scunthorpe United under 0.5 in 1st half 53.2% 55.9% 1.79
Scunthorpe United over 0.5 in 1st half 46.8% 44.1% 2.27
Scunthorpe United over 1.5 in 1st half 13.2% 10.5% 9.54
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (away no bet) 60.1% 62.1% 65.7% 0.94× 1.61
Draw (away no bet) 39.9% 37.9% 34.3% 1.11× 2.64
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United even goals 52.1% 52.7% 54.4% 0.97× 1.90
Scunthorpe United odd goals 47.9% 47.3% 45.6% 1.04× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 81.3% 83.1% 1.20
Both halves over 1.5 goals 18.7% 16.9% 5.93
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 69.2% 68.5% 1.46
Both halves under 1.5 goals 30.8% 31.5% 3.18
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 60.6% 59.4% 1.68
Scunthorpe United to score 2+ in a row 37.0% 36.3% 2.76
Sutton United to score 2+ in a row 32.0% 28.5% 3.51
Either team to score 3+ in a row 22.5% 19.3% 5.18
Scunthorpe United to score 3+ in a row 12.9% 12.0% 8.33
Sutton United to score 3+ in a row 10.0% 11.9% 8.39
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 10.7% 11.5% 11.6% 0.99× 8.73
1-2 8.8% 7.4% 8.4% 0.88× 13.46
0-1 8.2% 7.4% 6.0% 1.23× 13.46
1-0 7.5% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.46
2-1 8.0% 7.4% 9.7% 0.77× 13.46
0-2 6.1% 7.4% 6.3% 1.17× 13.46
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 5.5% 1.34× 13.46
2-2 6.3% 7.4% 5.1% 1.47× 13.46
0-0 4.5% 1.7% 4.8% 0.36× 58.57
0-3 3.2% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.57
0-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
1-3 4.6% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
1-4 1.8% 1.7% 1.1% 1.54× 58.58
2-3 3.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.57
2-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
3-0 2.4% 1.7% 3.8% 0.45× 58.58
3-1 3.8% 1.7% 3.5% 0.49× 58.57
3-2 3.0% 1.7% 4.1% 0.41× 58.58
3-3 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.58
3-4 0.6% 1.7% 0.6% 2.69× 58.59
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 2.4% 0.72× 58.59
4-1 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 0.98× 58.58
4-2 1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 1.08× 58.59
4-3 0.6% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
4-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.5% 3.59× 58.59
Any other score 3.8% 1.7% 4.0% 0.43× 58.57
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United leading at HT (DNB) 50.8% 55.5% 1.80
Sutton United leading at HT (DNB) 49.2% 44.5% 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United or Scunthorpe United (12) 76.7% 75.6% 77.2% 0.98× 1.32
Scunthorpe United or draw (X2) 64.9% 63.6% 56.3% 1.13× 1.57
Sutton United or draw (1X) 58.5% 57.0% 66.4% 0.86× 1.75
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United or draw at HT 70.9% 74.6% 1.34
Sutton United or draw at HT 70.0% 66.2% 1.51
Sutton United or Scunthorpe United at HT 59.1% 56.9% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United or draw (1UP) 64.9% 71.5% 1.40
Sutton United or draw (1UP) 58.5% 62.8% 1.59
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United or draw in 2nd half 70.0% 73.7% 1.36
Sutton United or Scunthorpe United in 2nd half 67.1% 65.5% 1.53
Sutton United or draw in 2nd half 62.9% 63.9% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 60.8% 61.5% 1.63
Neither half drawn 39.2% 38.5% 2.60
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (DNB) 54.1% 51.0% 43.4% 1.17× 1.96
Sutton United (DNB) 45.9% 49.0% 56.6% 0.87× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to score first 50.0% 54.0% 1.85
Sutton United to score first 45.5% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 4.5% 4.4% 22.85
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 60.0% 56.4% 57.2% 0.99× 1.77
Not both teams to score 40.0% 43.6% 42.8% 1.02× 2.30
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 49.3% 44.2% 45.8% 0.97× 2.26
Not both score & under 2.5 31.3% 34.4% 31.5% 1.09× 2.91
Both score & under 2.5 10.7% 12.3% 11.6% 1.07× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.6% 8.4% 11.4% 0.73× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 80.3% 83.1% 82.7% 1.01× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 19.7% 16.9% 17.3% 0.98× 5.93
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 66.0% 67.6% 1.48
Both teams to score in 2nd half 34.0% 32.4% 3.08
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 51.8% 56.1% 1.78
Both score 2nd half only 26.7% 26.0% 3.85
Both score 1st half only 14.1% 10.5% 9.51
Both score in both halves 7.4% 6.7% 14.92
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 78.5% 81.7% 1.22
Both teams to score by HT 21.5% 18.3% 5.48
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 58.9% 57.4% 1.74
A half without a goal 41.1% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 44.3% 42.1% 48.3% 0.87× 2.37
4-6 goals 32.2% 30.7% 29.5% 1.04× 3.26
0-1 goals 20.1% 22.8% 20.0% 1.14× 4.39
7+ goals 3.4% 1.8% 2.5% 0.72× 55.08
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to score exactly 1 32.6% 33.9% 33.1% 1.02× 2.95
Scunthorpe United to score exactly 2 25.7% 27.4% 25.2% 1.09× 3.65
Scunthorpe United to score 3+ 21.1% 22.4% 15.5% 1.44× 4.47
Scunthorpe United to score exactly 0 20.6% 22.4% 26.5% 0.85× 4.47
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to score exactly 1 34.2% 32.7% 33.8% 0.97× 3.06
Sutton United to score exactly 2 24.5% 23.3% 23.6% 0.99× 4.30
Sutton United to score exactly 0 23.8% 23.3% 21.1% 1.10× 4.30
Sutton United to score 3+ 17.5% 18.9% 21.9% 0.86× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 40.9% 43.1% 2.32
Scunthorpe United leading at HT 30.0% 33.8% 2.96
Sutton United leading at HT 29.1% 25.4% 3.93
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United -1: 1 58.5% 56.7% 1.76
Scunthorpe United -1: X 21.0% 23.6% 4.24
Scunthorpe United -1: 2 20.5% 23.6% 4.24
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (0:1) 64.9% 61.4% 56.3% 1.09× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.1% 17.8% 23.3% 0.76× 5.62
Sutton United (0:1) 16.1% 17.8% 20.6% 0.86× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (0:2) 83.9% 82.8% 79.4% 1.04× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.1% 11.0% 10.5% 1.05× 9.10
Sutton United (0:2) 5.9% 7.7% 10.3% 0.75× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (0:3) 94.1% 92.7% 89.7% 1.03× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.1% 2.4% 5.5% 0.43× 41.96
Sutton United (0:3) 1.8% 2.4% 4.9% 0.48× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (0:4) 98.2% 98.1% 95.1% 1.03× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 3.6% 0.33× 83.32
Sutton United (0:4) 0.5% 1.2% 1.4% 0.84× 83.42
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (1:0) 58.5% 58.2% 66.4% 0.88× 1.72
Draw (1:0) 21.0% 21.7% 17.6% 1.23× 4.61
Scunthorpe United (1:0) 20.5% 21.7% 16.2% 1.34× 4.61
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United (2:0) 79.5% 80.4% 83.8% 0.96× 1.24
Draw (2:0) 12.3% 10.4% 10.1% 1.03× 9.62
Scunthorpe United (2:0) 8.2% 6.5% 6.2% 1.05× 15.48
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 49.9% 48.3% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 27.4% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 22.8% 24.2% 4.13
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United to concede 79.4% 75.9% 73.5% 1.03× 1.32
Sutton United clean sheet 20.6% 24.1% 26.5% 0.91× 4.15
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United clean sheet in 1st half 53.2% 55.9% 1.79
Sutton United to concede in 1st half 46.8% 44.1% 2.27
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United under 3.5 goals 94.2% 92.3% 91.1% 1.01× 1.08
Sutton United under 2.5 goals 82.5% 82.1% 78.1% 1.05× 1.22
Sutton United over 0.5 goals 76.2% 77.7% 78.9% 0.98× 1.29
Sutton United under 1.5 goals 58.0% 58.8% 54.7% 1.08× 1.70
Sutton United over 1.5 goals 42.0% 41.2% 45.3% 0.91× 2.43
Sutton United under 0.5 goals 23.8% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.48
Sutton United over 2.5 goals 17.5% 17.9% 21.9% 0.82× 5.60
Sutton United over 3.5 goals 5.8% 7.7% 8.9% 0.87× 12.91
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United under 1.5 in 1st half 87.3% 89.9% 1.11
Sutton United over 0.5 in 1st half 46.0% 50.9% 1.96
Sutton United under 0.5 in 1st half 54.0% 49.1% 2.04
Sutton United over 1.5 in 1st half 12.7% 10.1% 9.94
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United (home no bet) 64.0% 60.2% 59.6% 1.01× 1.66
Draw (home no bet) 36.0% 39.8% 40.4% 0.98× 2.51
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United even goals 52.8% 50.6% 50.6% 1.00× 1.97
Sutton United odd goals 47.2% 49.4% 49.4% 1.00× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 28.6% 28.7% 3.49
HT 0-1 18.2% 18.9% 5.29
HT 1-0 17.8% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 11.1% 11.0% 9.06
HT 0-2 5.7% 7.1% 14.13
HT 2-0 5.5% 7.1% 14.13
Any other HT score 5.0% 7.1% 14.14
HT 1-2 3.5% 2.2% 44.66
HT 2-1 3.4% 2.2% 44.67
HT 2-2 1.1% 2.2% 44.85
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United at HT / Scunthorpe United at FT 22.9% 22.2% 4.51
Sutton United at HT / Sutton United at FT 20.4% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Scunthorpe United at FT 15.4% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 13.0% 12.7% 7.89
Draw at HT / Sutton United at FT 12.5% 12.7% 7.90
Sutton United at HT / Draw at FT 5.5% 6.0% 16.63
Scunthorpe United at HT / Draw at FT 4.8% 3.4% 29.09
Sutton United at HT / Scunthorpe United at FT 3.2% 3.4% 29.16
Scunthorpe United at HT / Sutton United at FT 2.3% 3.4% 29.19
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to score last 50.0% 51.7% 1.93
Sutton United to score last 45.5% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 4.5% 4.4% 22.85
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 95.5% 95.6% 1.05
Scunthorpe United to lead by 1 at any time 59.0% 55.1% 1.82
Sutton United to lead by 1 at any time 53.6% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 50.3% 50.5% 1.98
Scunthorpe United to lead by 2 at any time 27.7% 25.2% 3.97
Sutton United to lead by 2 at any time 22.9% 19.6% 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 18.6% 15.0% 6.69
Scunthorpe United to lead by 3 at any time 10.7% 10.4% 9.60
Sutton United to lead by 3 at any time 8.0% 6.5% 15.30
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.0% 87.4% 88.1% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 76.8% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
2-6 goals 76.5% 78.6% 77.7% 1.01× 1.27
2-5 goals 71.3% 72.4% 72.9% 0.99× 1.38
2-4 goals 61.2% 63.5% 62.4% 1.02× 1.58
1-3 goals 59.9% 59.2% 63.6% 0.93× 1.69
3-6 goals 54.6% 53.2% 54.7% 0.97× 1.88
3-5 goals 49.5% 48.7% 49.9% 0.97× 2.06
2-3 goals 44.3% 43.6% 48.3% 0.90× 2.29
3-4 goals 39.3% 39.2% 39.5% 0.99× 2.55
1-2 goals 37.5% 39.2% 38.4% 1.02× 2.55
4-6 goals 32.2% 35.4% 29.5% 1.20× 2.83
4-5 goals 27.0% 30.2% 24.7% 1.22× 3.31
5-6 goals 15.3% 18.6% 15.4% 1.21× 5.38
7+ goals 3.4% 2.5% 2.5% 1.00× 39.42
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United never behind 41.9% 48.2% 2.08
Sutton United never behind 36.5% 44.8% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of goals 49.3% 50.8% 47.5% 1.07× 1.97
Odd number of goals 50.7% 49.2% 52.5% 0.94× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 54.0% 51.6% 1.94
Odd goals in 1st half 46.0% 48.5% 2.06
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 51.2% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 48.8% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 goals 95.5% 95.5% 95.2% 1.00× 1.05
Under 5.5 goals 91.5% 92.3% 92.7% 1.00× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 81.3% 82.4% 82.3% 1.00× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 79.9% 77.4% 80.0% 0.97× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 64.4% 61.8% 68.1% 0.91× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 58.0% 58.8% 57.1% 1.03× 1.70
Under 2.5 goals 42.0% 41.2% 42.9% 0.96× 2.43
Over 3.5 goals 35.6% 38.2% 31.9% 1.20× 2.62
Under 1.5 goals 20.1% 22.6% 20.0% 1.13× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 18.7% 17.6% 17.8% 0.99× 5.67
Over 5.5 goals 8.5% 7.7% 7.3% 1.06× 12.94
Under 0.5 goals 4.5% 4.5% 4.8% 0.95× 22.18
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 96.4% 97.2% 97.3% 1.00× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 90.5% 92.5% 91.9% 1.01× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 77.5% 75.9% 79.3% 0.96× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 74.2% 72.6% 74.1% 0.98× 1.38
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 54.2% 51.8% 57.4% 0.90× 1.93
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 45.8% 48.2% 42.6% 1.13× 2.08
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 25.8% 27.4% 25.9% 1.06× 3.65
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 22.5% 24.1% 20.7% 1.16× 4.16
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 9.5% 7.6% 8.1% 0.93× 13.25
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 3.6% 2.8% 2.7% 1.03× 36.34
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 86.9% 89.3% 1.12
Over 0.5 in 1st half 71.4% 71.1% 1.41
Under 1.5 in 1st half 64.6% 63.8% 1.57
Over 1.5 in 1st half 35.4% 36.2% 2.76
Under 0.5 in 1st half 28.6% 28.9% 3.46
Over 2.5 in 1st half 13.1% 10.7% 9.33
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 83.0% 82.9% 1.21
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 74.0% 78.0% 1.28
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 52.5% 53.1% 1.88
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 47.5% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 26.0% 22.0% 4.54
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 17.0% 17.1% 5.86
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United not to score in both halves 74.3% 74.4% 1.35
Scunthorpe United not to score in both halves 71.3% 74.2% 1.35
Scunthorpe United to score in both halves 28.7% 25.8% 3.88
Sutton United to score in both halves 25.7% 25.6% 3.90
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 60.0% 60.2% 57.2% 1.05× 1.66
Only Scunthorpe United scores 19.3% 16.1% 16.5% 0.98× 6.20
Only Sutton United scores 16.1% 16.1% 21.9% 0.74× 6.21
Neither team scores 4.5% 4.6% 4.8% 0.97× 21.69
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 3 goals 22.4% 22.6% 25.4% 0.89× 4.42
Exactly 2 goals 21.9% 22.6% 23.1% 0.98× 4.42
Exactly 4 goals 16.9% 17.5% 14.3% 1.22× 5.73
Exactly 1 goals 15.6% 17.4% 15.4% 1.14× 5.73
Exactly 5 goals 10.2% 12.1% 10.6% 1.14× 8.29
6 or more goals 8.5% 7.6% 7.3% 1.04× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 4.5% 4.4% 4.8% 0.93× 22.60
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 52.5% 51.0% 1.96
1 goal in 2nd half 30.5% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 17.0% 16.9% 5.93
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United not to win both halves 91.3% 93.9% 1.07
Scunthorpe United not to win both halves 88.9% 88.1% 1.14
Scunthorpe United to win both halves 11.1% 11.9% 8.42
Sutton United to win both halves 8.7% 6.1% 16.48
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Scunthorpe United to win either half 56.1% 59.4% 1.68
Sutton United to win either half 50.4% 54.7% 1.83
Sutton United to win neither half 49.6% 45.3% 2.21
Scunthorpe United to win neither half 43.9% 40.6% 2.46
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sutton United not to win to nil 83.9% 83.0% 78.1% 1.06× 1.21
Scunthorpe United not to win to nil 80.7% 83.0% 83.5% 0.99× 1.21
Scunthorpe United to win to nil 19.3% 17.0% 16.5% 1.03× 5.87
Sutton United to win to nil 16.1% 17.0% 21.9% 0.78× 5.88
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 23.3% 24.1% 22.8% 1.06× 4.14
Scunthorpe United by 1 21.0% 24.1% 17.6% 1.37× 4.14
Sutton United by 1 19.1% 16.9% 23.3% 0.73× 5.90
Scunthorpe United by 2 12.3% 11.8% 10.1% 1.17× 8.46
Sutton United by 2 10.1% 11.8% 10.5% 1.13× 8.47
Scunthorpe United by 3+ 8.2% 7.2% 6.2% 1.17× 13.80
Sutton United by 3+ 5.9% 7.2% 10.3% 0.70× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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