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Sydney FC v Western Sydney Wanderers — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Friday 16 October 2026 · AUS-A-League · 2627

AUS-A-League results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Sydney FC win
51.4%
model 51.8%
Draw
26.5%
model 26.0%
Western Sydney Wanderers win
22.1%
model 22.2%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (3,060 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-0 13.1%
  2. 1-1 12.3%
  3. 2-0 10.2%
  4. 2-1 9.3%
  5. 0-0 8.8%

Goals

Over 2.544.4% Under 2.555.6%
BTTS yes47.2% BTTS no52.8%
Sydney FC 1+78.6% Sydney FC 2+45.6%
Western Sydney Wanderers 1+59.8% Western Sydney Wanderers 2+23.2%

Expected goals 1.54 – 0.91. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
36/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
97%
★ Best pick
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.
★ Most likely to land
Nothing on a measured band prices above 1.18 here.

Positive factors

  • Sydney FC carry the stronger rating, 1525 Elo against 1395.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Sydney FC have an estimated 51.4% win probability, against 26.5% for the draw and 22.1% for Western Sydney Wanderers. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.54 for Sydney FC and 0.91 for Western Sydney Wanderers.

Why Sydney FC

Sydney FC carry the stronger rating, 1525 Elo against 1395.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 26.5%. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Western Sydney Wanderers can win

Nothing in the data singles out Western Sydney Wanderers.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Sydney FC, so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Western Sydney Wanderers, so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Sydney FC: 54% possession, 12.4 shots a match, 13.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Western Sydney Wanderers: 54% possession, 14.2 shots a match, 17.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-05 22:20 · team_stats 2026-09-05 09:41 · availability 2026-09-05 21:03 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Sydney FC are the model's most likely outcome at 51.4%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 13.1%. Confidence 36/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
dc-xg 1.45–0.76 1-0 16% 38% 41%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to win 53.3% 51.5% 37.9% 1.36× 1.94
Draw 27.2% 27.9% 27.1% 1.03× 3.59
Western Sydney Wanderers to win 19.5% 19.4% 35.4% 0.55× 5.16
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC & not both score 35.6% 33.2% 18.2% 1.82× 3.02
Sydney FC & both teams score 17.7% 17.9% 20.0% 0.90× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 16.0% 17.9% 22.5% 0.80× 5.59
Western Sydney Wanderers & not both score 12.4% 13.3% 16.4% 0.81× 7.54
Draw & not both score 11.1% 13.3% 5.0% 2.65× 7.55
Western Sydney Wanderers & both teams score 7.2% 8.4% 19.3% 0.43× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC & under 3.5 41.6% 40.3% 22.1% 1.82× 2.48
Sydney FC & over 1.5 37.6% 34.9% 29.6% 1.18× 2.86
Sydney FC & under 2.5 27.3% 26.0% 12.5% 2.08× 3.84
Sydney FC & over 2.5 26.0% 26.0% 25.7% 1.01× 3.84
Draw & under 2.5 23.4% 21.6% 16.4% 1.32× 4.62
Draw & under 3.5 23.4% 21.6% 16.4% 1.32× 4.62
Western Sydney Wanderers & under 3.5 16.8% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Sydney FC & under 1.5 15.7% 18.0% 8.6% 2.10× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.0% 18.0% 22.5% 0.80× 5.56
Sydney FC & over 3.5 11.7% 12.9% 16.1% 0.80× 7.77
Western Sydney Wanderers & under 2.5 11.4% 12.9% 13.6% 0.95× 7.77
Draw & under 1.5 11.1% 12.9% 5.0% 2.57× 7.77
Western Sydney Wanderers & over 1.5 11.3% 12.9% 27.5% 0.47× 7.77
Western Sydney Wanderers & under 1.5 8.2% 7.9% 8.2% 0.96× 12.70
Western Sydney Wanderers & over 2.5 8.2% 7.9% 22.1% 0.36× 12.70
Draw & over 2.5 3.8% 4.8% 11.1% 0.43× 20.93
Draw & over 3.5 3.8% 4.8% 11.1% 0.43× 20.93
Western Sydney Wanderers & over 3.5 2.7% 4.8% 12.1% 0.39× 20.93
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (1UP) 64.4% 63.2% 1.58
Western Sydney Wanderers (1UP) 33.8% 33.0% 3.04
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (2UP) 53.3% 56.0% 1.79
Western Sydney Wanderers (2UP) 19.5% 17.7% 5.64
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to win 2nd half 41.7% 41.2% 2.43
2nd half drawn 39.3% 36.4% 2.75
Western Sydney Wanderers to win 2nd half 19.0% 19.3% 5.19
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers (+2.5) 89.3% 88.5% 88.2% 1.00× 1.13
Sydney FC (+0.5) 80.5% 82.4% 64.6% 1.27× 1.21
Western Sydney Wanderers (+1.5) 73.0% 73.7% 80.4% 0.92× 1.36
Sydney FC (-0.5) 53.3% 52.4% 37.9% 1.38× 1.91
Western Sydney Wanderers (+0.5) 46.7% 47.6% 62.1% 0.77× 2.10
Sydney FC (-1.5) 27.0% 26.3% 19.6% 1.34× 3.80
Western Sydney Wanderers (-0.5) 19.5% 17.6% 35.4% 0.50× 5.68
Sydney FC (-2.5) 10.7% 11.5% 11.8% 0.98× 8.70
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers to concede 76.5% 79.0% 78.9% 1.00× 1.27
Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet 23.5% 21.0% 21.1% 1.00× 4.76
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers to concede in 1st half 46.3% 50.5% 1.98
Western Sydney Wanderers clean sheet in 1st half 53.7% 49.5% 2.02
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers over 2.5 corners 80.9% 81.4% 1.23
Western Sydney Wanderers under 6.5 corners 78.4% 75.9% 1.32
Western Sydney Wanderers under 5.5 corners 66.4% 67.5% 1.48
Western Sydney Wanderers over 3.5 corners 65.4% 67.5% 1.48
Western Sydney Wanderers under 4.5 corners 51.3% 53.1% 1.88
Western Sydney Wanderers over 4.5 corners 48.7% 46.9% 2.13
Western Sydney Wanderers under 3.5 corners 34.6% 32.5% 3.08
Western Sydney Wanderers over 5.5 corners 33.6% 32.5% 3.08
Western Sydney Wanderers over 6.5 corners 21.6% 24.1% 4.16
Western Sydney Wanderers under 2.5 corners 19.1% 18.6% 5.39
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers under 3.5 goals 99.2% 97.6% 95.0% 1.03× 1.03
Western Sydney Wanderers under 2.5 goals 95.8% 97.5% 85.0% 1.15× 1.03
Western Sydney Wanderers under 1.5 goals 82.3% 81.4% 56.1% 1.45× 1.23
Western Sydney Wanderers over 0.5 goals 53.3% 53.7% 77.1% 0.70× 1.86
Western Sydney Wanderers under 0.5 goals 46.7% 46.3% 22.9% 2.03× 2.16
Western Sydney Wanderers over 1.5 goals 17.7% 18.6% 43.9% 0.42× 5.39
Western Sydney Wanderers over 2.5 goals 4.2% 2.5% 15.0% 0.16× 40.75
Western Sydney Wanderers over 3.5 goals 0.8% 2.4% 5.0% 0.49× 40.94
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers under 1.5 in 1st half 96.2% 95.7% 1.05
Western Sydney Wanderers under 0.5 in 1st half 73.8% 68.7% 1.46
Western Sydney Wanderers over 0.5 in 1st half 26.2% 31.3% 3.20
Western Sydney Wanderers over 1.5 in 1st half 3.8% 4.3% 23.27
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (away no bet) 66.2% 66.4% 58.2% 1.14× 1.51
Draw (away no bet) 33.8% 33.6% 41.8% 0.80× 2.98
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers even goals 60.9% 59.0% 55.0% 1.07× 1.70
Western Sydney Wanderers odd goals 39.1% 41.0% 45.0% 0.91× 2.44
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 91.3% 92.2% 1.09
Both halves over 1.5 goals 8.7% 7.8% 12.83
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 51.8% 50.1% 2.00
Both halves under 1.5 goals 48.2% 49.9% 2.01
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 46.8% 45.9% 2.18
Sydney FC to score 2+ in a row 37.0% 36.5% 2.74
Either team to score 3+ in a row 15.7% 16.4% 6.11
Sydney FC to score 3+ in a row 13.5% 12.1% 8.24
Western Sydney Wanderers to score 2+ in a row 12.8% 12.1% 8.26
Western Sydney Wanderers to score 3+ in a row 2.3% 2.6% 38.99
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC corners (+3.5) 89.4% 84.5% 1.18
Sydney FC corners (+2.5) 83.5% 79.7% 1.25
Sydney FC corners (+1.5) 75.7% 74.9% 1.34
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (+3.5) 75.3% 74.9% 1.34
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (+2.5) 66.0% 65.8% 1.52
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (+1.5) 55.5% 57.1% 1.75
Sydney FC corners (-1.5) 44.5% 42.9% 2.33
Sydney FC corners (-2.5) 34.0% 34.2% 2.92
Sydney FC corners (-3.5) 24.7% 25.1% 3.98
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (-1.5) 24.3% 25.1% 3.98
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (-2.5) 16.5% 20.3% 4.93
Western Sydney Wanderers corners (-3.5) 10.6% 15.5% 6.46
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
12+ corners 36.2% 33.7% 2.97
0-8 corners 32.2% 33.2% 3.01
9-11 corners 31.6% 33.2% 3.01
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 7.5 corners 77.6% 76.5% 1.31
Under 12.5 corners 72.8% 72.7% 1.38
Over 8.5 corners 67.8% 67.7% 1.48
Under 11.5 corners 63.8% 63.4% 1.58
Over 9.5 corners 57.1% 57.7% 1.73
Under 10.5 corners 53.7% 53.3% 1.88
Over 10.5 corners 46.3% 46.7% 2.14
Under 9.5 corners 42.9% 42.3% 2.37
Over 11.5 corners 36.2% 36.6% 2.73
Under 8.5 corners 32.2% 32.3% 3.09
Over 12.5 corners 27.2% 27.3% 3.66
Under 7.5 corners 22.4% 23.5% 4.26
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.9% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-0 15.7% 13.7% 8.6% 1.60× 7.27
1-1 12.3% 11.4% 11.8% 0.97× 8.74
0-0 11.1% 11.4% 5.0% 2.29× 8.74
2-0 11.5% 11.4% 4.3% 2.67× 8.74
2-1 8.8% 7.4% 6.4% 1.16× 13.47
0-1 8.2% 7.4% 8.2% 0.90× 13.47
3-0 5.6% 7.4% 3.9% 1.89× 13.47
0-2 3.2% 1.7% 5.7% 0.30× 58.51
0-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 0.96× 58.52
0-4 0.2% 1.7% 1.4% 1.20× 58.52
1-2 4.6% 1.7% 8.9% 0.19× 58.50
1-3 1.2% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.52
1-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.39× 58.52
2-2 3.3% 1.7% 10.0% 0.17× 58.50
2-3 0.8% 1.7% 3.6% 0.48× 58.52
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.7% 2.39× 58.52
3-1 4.2% 1.7% 3.2% 0.53× 58.50
3-2 1.6% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.51
3-3 0.4% 1.7% 1.1% 1.59× 58.52
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 1.1% 1.59× 58.52
4-0 2.0% 1.7% 2.1% 0.80× 58.51
4-1 1.5% 1.7% 4.3% 0.40× 58.52
4-2 0.6% 1.7% 1.1% 1.59× 58.52
4-3 0.1% 1.7% 0.4% 4.78× 58.52
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.7% 2.39× 58.52
Any other score 1.7% 1.7% 4.6% 0.37× 58.51
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC leading at HT (DNB) 70.8% 71.3% 1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers leading at HT (DNB) 29.3% 28.7% 3.49
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC or draw (1X) 80.5% 80.6% 64.6% 1.25× 1.24
Sydney FC or Western Sydney Wanderers (12) 72.8% 72.1% 72.9% 0.99× 1.39
Western Sydney Wanderers or draw (X2) 46.7% 48.5% 62.1% 0.78× 2.06
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC or draw at HT 84.6% 84.5% 1.18
Western Sydney Wanderers or draw at HT 62.9% 62.3% 1.61
Sydney FC or Western Sydney Wanderers at HT 52.5% 47.6% 2.10
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC or draw (1UP) 80.5% 88.2% 1.13
Western Sydney Wanderers or draw (1UP) 46.7% 52.4% 1.91
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC or draw in 2nd half 81.0% 80.7% 1.24
Sydney FC or Western Sydney Wanderers in 2nd half 60.7% 63.6% 1.57
Western Sydney Wanderers or draw in 2nd half 58.3% 58.8% 1.70
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 68.0% 69.6% 1.44
Neither half drawn 32.0% 30.4% 3.29
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (DNB) 73.2% 71.5% 51.7% 1.38× 1.40
Western Sydney Wanderers (DNB) 26.8% 28.5% 48.3% 0.59× 3.51
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to score first 58.2% 62.0% 1.61
Western Sydney Wanderers to score first 30.6% 26.8% 3.74
No goal scored 11.1% 9.8% 10.24
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 59.1% 54.9% 38.9% 1.41× 1.82
Both teams to score 40.9% 45.1% 61.1% 0.74× 2.22
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 49.8% 44.3% 30.4% 1.46× 2.26
Both score & over 2.5 28.7% 33.6% 49.6% 0.68× 2.97
Both score & under 2.5 12.3% 12.3% 11.8% 1.05× 8.12
Not both score & over 2.5 9.3% 8.4% 8.9% 0.94× 11.94
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 92.5% 89.1% 77.9% 1.14× 1.12
Both teams to score 2+ 7.5% 10.9% 22.1% 0.49× 9.18
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 79.3% 75.9% 1.32
Both teams to score in 2nd half 20.7% 24.1% 4.14
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 69.7% 63.0% 1.59
Both score 2nd half only 18.1% 15.8% 6.32
Both score 1st half only 9.7% 6.8% 14.66
Both score in both halves 2.5% 4.9% 20.61
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 87.8% 85.9% 1.16
Both teams to score by HT 12.2% 14.1% 7.11
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 56.3% 57.4% 1.74
A goal in each half 43.7% 42.6% 2.35
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.7% 47.4% 40.7% 1.16× 2.11
0-1 goals 35.1% 35.0% 21.1% 1.66× 2.86
4-6 goals 17.5% 20.2% 35.0% 0.58× 4.95
7+ goals 0.8% 1.8% 3.9% 0.46× 55.18
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers to score exactly 0 46.7% 42.9% 22.9% 1.88× 2.33
Western Sydney Wanderers to score exactly 1 35.6% 36.0% 33.6% 1.07× 2.78
Western Sydney Wanderers to score exactly 2 13.5% 12.8% 29.3% 0.44× 7.81
Western Sydney Wanderers to score 3+ 4.2% 4.5% 15.0% 0.30× 22.02
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to score exactly 1 34.0% 32.7% 33.6% 0.97× 3.06
Sydney FC to score exactly 2 24.6% 23.3% 23.9% 0.97× 4.30
Sydney FC to score exactly 0 23.5% 23.3% 21.1% 1.10× 4.30
Sydney FC to score 3+ 17.8% 18.9% 22.1% 0.85× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 47.5% 52.4% 1.91
Sydney FC leading at HT 37.2% 37.7% 2.65
Western Sydney Wanderers leading at HT 15.4% 15.5% 6.45
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC -1: 2 46.7% 46.8% 2.14
Sydney FC -1: 1 27.0% 26.6% 3.77
Sydney FC -1: X 26.3% 26.6% 3.77
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers (0:1) 46.7% 45.8% 62.1% 0.74× 2.18
Sydney FC (0:1) 27.0% 27.0% 19.6% 1.38× 3.70
Draw (0:1) 26.3% 27.0% 18.6% 1.46× 3.70
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers (0:2) 73.0% 75.6% 80.4% 0.94× 1.32
Draw (0:2) 16.4% 15.3% 8.2% 1.86× 6.54
Sydney FC (0:2) 10.7% 11.0% 11.8% 0.93× 9.12
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers (0:3) 89.3% 90.8% 88.2% 1.03× 1.10
Draw (0:3) 7.3% 5.8% 8.2% 0.71× 17.18
Sydney FC (0:3) 3.4% 2.4% 3.9% 0.61× 42.06
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers (0:4) 96.6% 98.1% 96.1% 1.02× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 2.5% 1.2% 3.2% 0.37× 83.32
Sydney FC (0:4) 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 1.12× 83.51
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (1:0) 80.5% 81.4% 64.6% 1.26× 1.23
Draw (1:0) 13.7% 12.8% 21.4% 0.60× 7.80
Western Sydney Wanderers (1:0) 5.8% 6.9% 14.3% 0.48× 14.50
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC (2:0) 94.2% 94.0% 85.7% 1.10× 1.06
Draw (2:0) 4.5% 2.3% 10.4% 0.22× 44.22
Western Sydney Wanderers (2:0) 1.3% 2.3% 4.3% 0.53× 44.43
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 44.5% 47.9% 2.09
Halves equal 28.7% 26.5% 3.77
1st half highest scoring 26.8% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to concede 53.3% 53.1% 77.1% 0.69× 1.88
Sydney FC clean sheet 46.7% 46.9% 22.9% 2.05× 2.13
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC clean sheet in 1st half 73.8% 68.4% 1.46
Sydney FC to concede in 1st half 26.2% 31.6% 3.17
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC over 2.5 corners 89.0% 86.3% 1.16
Sydney FC over 3.5 corners 77.8% 76.6% 1.31
Sydney FC under 6.5 corners 64.3% 62.3% 1.61
Sydney FC over 4.5 corners 63.9% 62.3% 1.61
Sydney FC under 5.5 corners 50.8% 52.8% 1.90
Sydney FC over 5.5 corners 49.2% 47.2% 2.12
Sydney FC under 4.5 corners 36.1% 37.7% 2.65
Sydney FC over 6.5 corners 35.7% 37.7% 2.65
Sydney FC under 3.5 corners 22.2% 23.4% 4.27
Sydney FC under 2.5 corners 11.0% 13.7% 7.29
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC under 3.5 goals 94.1% 92.3% 89.6% 1.03× 1.08
Sydney FC under 2.5 goals 82.2% 82.1% 77.9% 1.05× 1.22
Sydney FC over 0.5 goals 76.5% 77.7% 78.9% 0.98× 1.29
Sydney FC under 1.5 goals 57.5% 58.8% 54.3% 1.08× 1.70
Sydney FC over 1.5 goals 42.5% 41.2% 45.7% 0.90× 2.43
Sydney FC under 0.5 goals 23.5% 22.3% 21.1% 1.06× 4.49
Sydney FC over 2.5 goals 17.8% 17.9% 22.1% 0.81× 5.59
Sydney FC over 3.5 goals 5.9% 7.7% 10.4% 0.75× 12.94
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC under 1.5 in 1st half 87.1% 89.9% 1.11
Sydney FC over 0.5 in 1st half 46.3% 50.6% 1.98
Sydney FC under 0.5 in 1st half 53.7% 49.4% 2.02
Sydney FC over 1.5 in 1st half 12.9% 10.1% 9.89
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (home no bet) 58.2% 56.7% 43.4% 1.31× 1.76
Western Sydney Wanderers (home no bet) 41.8% 43.3% 56.6% 0.77× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC even goals 52.8% 50.6% 53.2% 0.95× 1.98
Sydney FC odd goals 47.2% 49.4% 46.8% 1.06× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 39.6% 38.7% 2.59
HT 1-0 24.6% 24.2% 4.13
HT 0-1 12.0% 11.0% 9.11
HT 2-0 7.7% 7.1% 14.17
HT 1-1 7.5% 7.1% 14.17
Any other HT score 2.9% 2.3% 43.85
HT 2-1 2.3% 2.3% 43.89
HT 0-2 1.8% 2.3% 43.93
HT 1-2 1.1% 2.3% 43.98
HT 2-2 0.4% 2.3% 44.04
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC at HT / Sydney FC at FT 31.6% 32.3% 3.09
Draw at HT / Sydney FC at FT 19.7% 16.9% 5.93
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 18.9% 16.8% 5.94
Western Sydney Wanderers at HT / Western Sydney Wanderers at FT 9.5% 6.1% 16.52
Draw at HT / Western Sydney Wanderers at FT 8.9% 6.0% 16.54
Sydney FC at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% 28.81
Western Sydney Wanderers at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% 28.84
Western Sydney Wanderers at HT / Sydney FC at FT 2.0% 3.5% 28.91
Sydney FC at HT / Western Sydney Wanderers at FT 1.1% 3.5% 28.95
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC to score last 58.3% 56.7% 1.76
Western Sydney Wanderers to score last 30.6% 32.9% 3.04
No goal scored 11.1% 9.2% 10.92
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 88.9% 90.8% 1.10
Sydney FC to lead by 1 at any time 64.4% 61.4% 1.63
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 40.3% 39.1% 2.56
Western Sydney Wanderers to lead by 1 at any time 33.8% 29.4% 3.41
Sydney FC to lead by 2 at any time 31.7% 29.3% 3.42
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 14.0% 10.4% 9.58
Sydney FC to lead by 3 at any time 12.2% 10.4% 9.62
Western Sydney Wanderers to lead by 2 at any time 8.7% 6.6% 15.17
Western Sydney Wanderers to lead by 3 at any time 1.8% 1.5% 64.81
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC most corners 55.5% 55.4% 1.81
Western Sydney Wanderers most corners 33.8% 34.3% 2.92
Corners level 10.7% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 86.3% 87.4% 88.2% 0.99× 1.14
1-4 goals 81.5% 83.5% 76.4% 1.09× 1.20
1-3 goals 70.6% 72.4% 56.8% 1.28× 1.38
2-6 goals 64.2% 63.4% 75.4% 0.84× 1.58
2-5 goals 62.4% 63.4% 72.1% 0.88× 1.58
2-4 goals 57.6% 59.2% 60.4% 0.98× 1.69
1-2 goals 50.9% 53.2% 37.1% 1.43× 1.88
2-3 goals 46.7% 48.7% 40.7% 1.20× 2.06
3-6 goals 37.2% 39.2% 54.6% 0.72× 2.55
3-5 goals 35.4% 39.2% 51.4% 0.76× 2.55
3-4 goals 30.6% 35.4% 39.6% 0.89× 2.83
4-6 goals 17.5% 18.6% 35.0% 0.53× 5.37
4-5 goals 15.7% 18.6% 31.8% 0.59× 5.37
5-6 goals 6.6% 8.7% 15.4% 0.57× 11.44
7+ goals 0.8% 2.5% 3.9% 0.64× 39.49
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Sydney FC never behind 55.0% 62.3% 1.61
Western Sydney Wanderers never behind 24.4% 24.5% 4.09
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.8% 50.0% 1.02× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.9% 49.2% 50.0% 0.98× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 57.9% 57.6% 1.74
Odd goals in 1st half 42.1% 42.4% 2.36
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 54.0% 52.1% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 46.0% 47.9% 2.09
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 97.5% 95.5% 92.9% 1.03× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 92.7% 92.3% 81.1% 1.14× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 88.9% 87.7% 95.0% 0.92× 1.14
Under 3.5 goals 81.8% 82.4% 61.4% 1.34× 1.21
Over 1.5 goals 64.9% 61.7% 78.9% 0.78× 1.62
Under 2.5 goals 62.0% 61.7% 41.8% 1.48× 1.62
Over 2.5 goals 38.0% 38.3% 58.2% 0.66× 2.61
Under 1.5 goals 35.1% 38.3% 21.1% 1.82× 2.61
Over 3.5 goals 18.2% 17.6% 38.6% 0.46× 5.67
Under 0.5 goals 11.1% 12.3% 5.0% 2.47× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 7.3% 7.7% 18.9% 0.41× 12.94
Over 5.5 goals 2.5% 4.5% 7.1% 0.63× 22.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.2% 97.3% 95.9% 1.01× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 97.3% 97.2% 91.9% 1.06× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 91.8% 92.5% 76.4% 1.21× 1.08
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 77.3% 75.9% 52.0% 1.46× 1.32
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 52.0% 51.8% 73.4% 0.71× 1.93
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 48.0% 48.2% 26.6% 1.81× 2.07
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 22.7% 24.1% 48.0% 0.50× 4.15
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 8.2% 7.5% 23.6% 0.32× 13.27
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 2.7% 2.8% 8.1% 0.34× 36.34
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.8% 2.7% 4.1% 0.68× 36.40
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 93.3% 92.8% 1.08
Under 1.5 in 1st half 76.2% 78.8% 1.27
Over 0.5 in 1st half 60.4% 63.5% 1.58
Under 0.5 in 1st half 39.6% 36.5% 2.74
Over 1.5 in 1st half 23.8% 21.2% 4.72
Over 2.5 in 1st half 6.7% 7.2% 13.98
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 86.1% 85.2% 1.17
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 72.2% 77.7% 1.29
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 63.3% 62.2% 1.61
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 36.7% 37.8% 2.65
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 27.8% 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 13.9% 14.8% 6.76
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers not to score in both halves 90.4% 89.8% 1.11
Sydney FC not to score in both halves 74.0% 74.1% 1.35
Sydney FC to score in both halves 26.0% 25.9% 3.86
Western Sydney Wanderers to score in both halves 9.6% 10.2% 9.79
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 40.9% 46.6% 61.1% 0.76× 2.15
Only Sydney FC scores 35.6% 39.8% 18.2% 2.19× 2.51
Only Western Sydney Wanderers scores 12.4% 10.9% 16.4% 0.67× 9.14
Neither team scores 11.1% 10.9% 5.0% 2.19× 9.14
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 27.0% 24.9% 21.1% 1.18× 4.01
Exactly 1 goals 23.9% 22.6% 16.4% 1.38× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 19.7% 17.4% 20.0% 0.87× 5.73
Exactly 0 goals 11.1% 12.1% 5.0% 2.41× 8.29
Exactly 4 goals 10.9% 12.1% 20.0% 0.60× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 4.8% 4.4% 12.1% 0.36× 22.66
6 or more goals 2.5% 4.4% 7.1% 0.62× 22.70
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 36.7% 40.0% 2.50
1 goal in 2nd half 35.5% 39.9% 2.51
No goals in 2nd half 27.8% 29.8% 3.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers not to win both halves 97.1% 97.2% 1.03
Sydney FC not to win both halves 84.5% 84.2% 1.19
Sydney FC to win both halves 15.5% 15.8% 6.35
Western Sydney Wanderers to win both halves 2.9% 2.8% 35.82
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers to win neither half 68.6% 67.9% 1.47
Sydney FC to win either half 63.3% 65.3% 1.53
Sydney FC to win neither half 36.7% 34.7% 2.88
Western Sydney Wanderers to win either half 31.4% 32.1% 3.12
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Western Sydney Wanderers not to win to nil 87.6% 88.2% 83.6% 1.06× 1.13
Sydney FC not to win to nil 64.4% 66.8% 81.8% 0.82× 1.50
Sydney FC to win to nil 35.6% 33.2% 18.2% 1.82× 3.01
Western Sydney Wanderers to win to nil 12.4% 11.8% 16.4% 0.72× 8.48
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 27.2% 27.8% 27.1% 1.02× 3.60
Sydney FC by 1 26.3% 27.8% 18.6% 1.50× 3.60
Sydney FC by 2 16.4% 16.9% 8.2% 2.06× 5.90
Western Sydney Wanderers by 1 13.7% 11.8% 21.4% 0.55× 8.47
Sydney FC by 3+ 10.7% 11.8% 11.8% 1.00× 8.47
Western Sydney Wanderers by 2 4.5% 2.7% 10.4% 0.26× 36.99
Western Sydney Wanderers by 3+ 1.3% 2.7% 4.3% 0.63× 37.10
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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