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Talleres (Córdoba) v Belgrano (Córdoba) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 4 October 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Talleres (Córdoba) win
27.6%
model 29.3%
Draw
28.3%
model 30.2%
Belgrano (Córdoba) win
44.1%
model 40.5%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (487 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 13.7%
  2. 0-1 13.5%
  3. 0-0 12.2%
  4. 1-0 10.9%
  5. 0-2 8.2%

Goals

Over 2.536.0% Under 2.564.0%
BTTS yes43.1% BTTS no56.9%
Talleres (Córdoba) 1+61.7% Talleres (Córdoba) 2+24.9%
Belgrano (Córdoba) 1+69.2% Belgrano (Córdoba) 2+32.9%

Expected goals 0.96 – 1.18. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
21/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
96%
★ Best pick
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw (X2)
Double chance · usually 58%
72.3% fair odds 1.38
strong signal · 1552 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Talleres (Córdoba) not to score in both halves
Score both halves
84.3% fair odds 1.19
moderate signal · 820 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Belgrano (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1452.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Belgrano (Córdoba) have an estimated 44.1% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 27.6% for Talleres (Córdoba). Expected goals from the ensemble are 0.96 for Talleres (Córdoba) and 1.18 for Belgrano (Córdoba).

Why Talleres (Córdoba)

Nothing in the data singles out Talleres (Córdoba).

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%. A combined 2.14 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 0.96 to 1.18. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Belgrano (Córdoba) can win

Belgrano (Córdoba) carry the stronger rating, 1592 Elo against 1452.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Talleres (Córdoba), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Belgrano (Córdoba), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Talleres (Córdoba): 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Belgrano (Córdoba): 57% possession, 15.0 shots a match, 14.2 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-07 06:03 · team_stats 2026-09-07 06:05 · availability 2026-09-07 07:51 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Belgrano (Córdoba) are the model's most likely outcome at 44.1%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 13.7%. Confidence 21/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 0.96–1.18 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 0.77–1.00 0-0 17% 26% 34%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win 39.3% 36.4% 27.8% 1.31× 2.74
Draw 33.7% 30.4% 30.6% 0.99× 3.29
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 27.0% 27.9% 41.7% 0.67× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) & not both score 28.7% 25.2% 17.2% 1.46× 3.97
Talleres (Córdoba) & not both score 19.5% 17.9% 27.8% 0.65× 5.58
Draw & not both score 17.4% 17.9% 14.8% 1.21× 5.58
Draw & both teams score 16.3% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Belgrano (Córdoba) & both teams score 10.5% 13.3% 10.7% 1.24× 7.55
Talleres (Córdoba) & both teams score 7.5% 8.4% 14.1% 0.59× 11.93
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 3.5 34.4% 30.9% 23.6% 1.31× 3.24
Draw & under 2.5 30.9% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Draw & under 3.5 30.9% 30.9% 28.1% 1.10× 3.24
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 2.5 25.1% 26.0% 14.7% 1.77× 3.84
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 3.5 24.3% 21.7% 34.9% 0.62× 4.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 1.5 22.7% 21.7% 17.5% 1.23× 4.62
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 2.5 17.9% 18.0% 23.6% 0.76× 5.56
Draw & under 1.5 17.4% 18.0% 14.8% 1.22× 5.56
Belgrano (Córdoba) & under 1.5 16.6% 18.0% 10.3% 1.74× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 16.3% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 1.5 14.2% 12.9% 27.6% 0.47× 7.77
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 2.5 14.2% 12.9% 13.2% 0.98× 7.77
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 1.5 12.8% 12.9% 14.2% 0.90× 7.77
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 2.5 9.1% 7.9% 18.2% 0.43× 12.69
Belgrano (Córdoba) & over 3.5 4.9% 4.8% 4.2% 1.13× 20.93
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 3.5 2.8% 4.8% 7.0% 0.68× 20.94
Draw & over 2.5 2.8% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
Draw & over 3.5 2.8% 4.8% 2.6% 1.81× 20.94
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (1UP) 50.4% 52.5% 1.91
Talleres (Córdoba) (1UP) 39.1% 34.6% 2.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (2UP) 39.3% 37.2% 2.69
Talleres (Córdoba) (2UP) 27.0% 24.8% 4.03
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 45.6% 45.3% 2.21
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 32.4% 34.5% 2.90
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 22.0% 23.1% 4.33
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+2.5) 98.1% 96.3% 95.0% 1.01× 1.04
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+1.5) 91.5% 92.1% 82.5% 1.12× 1.09
Belgrano (Córdoba) (+0.5) 73.0% 73.7% 58.3% 1.27× 1.36
Talleres (Córdoba) (+0.5) 60.7% 62.9% 72.2% 0.87× 1.59
Belgrano (Córdoba) (-0.5) 39.3% 37.1% 27.8% 1.34× 2.70
Talleres (Córdoba) (-0.5) 27.0% 26.3% 41.7% 0.63× 3.80
Talleres (Córdoba) (-1.5) 8.5% 7.9% 17.5% 0.45× 12.62
Talleres (Córdoba) (-2.5) 1.9% 3.7% 5.0% 0.74× 26.95
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to concede 53.8% 56.0% 68.1% 0.82× 1.79
Belgrano (Córdoba) clean sheet 46.2% 44.0% 31.9% 1.38× 2.27
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 71.7% 77.5% 1.29
Belgrano (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 28.3% 22.5% 4.44
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 87.4% 85.2% 1.17
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 78.3% 75.9% 1.32
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 69.7% 67.5% 1.48
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 65.3% 67.5% 1.48
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 51.4% 53.1% 1.88
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 48.6% 46.9% 2.13
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 34.7% 32.5% 3.08
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 30.3% 32.5% 3.08
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 21.7% 24.1% 4.16
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 12.7% 14.8% 6.75
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 98.1% 97.5% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 92.0% 92.3% 93.3% 0.99× 1.08
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 73.7% 72.0% 78.2% 0.92× 1.39
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 63.1% 63.0% 57.6% 1.09× 1.59
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 36.9% 37.0% 42.4% 0.87× 2.70
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 26.3% 28.0% 21.8% 1.29× 3.57
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 8.0% 7.7% 6.7% 1.15× 13.03
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 1.9% 2.5% 1.1% 2.14× 40.78
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 93.9% 94.2% 1.06
Belgrano (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 67.1% 68.3% 1.46
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 32.9% 31.7% 3.15
Belgrano (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 6.1% 5.8% 17.33
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw (away no bet) 55.5% 57.4% 42.3% 1.36× 1.74
Talleres (Córdoba) (away no bet) 44.5% 42.6% 57.7% 0.74× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) even goals 56.8% 56.9% 58.4% 0.97× 1.76
Belgrano (Córdoba) odd goals 43.2% 43.1% 41.6% 1.04× 2.32
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 95.4% 95.5% 1.05
Both halves over 1.5 goals 4.6% 4.5% 22.11
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals 60.0% 60.6% 1.65
Not both halves under 1.5 40.0% 39.4% 2.54
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 34.8% 29.1% 3.44
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 22.2% 19.5% 5.12
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 14.4% 12.2% 8.18
Either team to score 3+ in a row 8.7% 5.7% 17.59
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 5.8% 5.6% 17.82
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 2.9% 2.6% 38.80
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 92.0% 89.6% 1.12
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 86.8% 84.5% 1.18
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 79.5% 74.9% 1.34
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 73.5% 70.7% 1.41
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 63.6% 61.9% 1.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 52.4% 52.5% 1.91
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 47.6% 47.5% 2.10
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 36.4% 38.1% 2.63
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 26.5% 29.3% 3.42
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 20.5% 25.1% 3.98
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 13.2% 15.5% 6.45
Belgrano (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 8.0% 10.4% 9.59
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 46.7% 41.7% 2.40
9-11 corners 29.6% 31.2% 3.20
12+ corners 23.7% 25.6% 3.90
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 83.2% 80.8% 1.24
Under 11.5 corners 76.3% 76.5% 1.31
Under 10.5 corners 67.8% 67.7% 1.48
Over 7.5 corners 64.7% 63.4% 1.58
Under 9.5 corners 57.7% 57.8% 1.73
Over 8.5 corners 53.3% 53.3% 1.88
Under 8.5 corners 46.7% 46.7% 2.14
Over 9.5 corners 42.3% 42.2% 2.37
Under 7.5 corners 35.3% 36.6% 2.73
Over 10.5 corners 32.2% 32.3% 3.10
Over 11.5 corners 23.7% 23.5% 4.26
Over 12.5 corners 16.8% 19.2% 5.20
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of corners 50.0% 50.2% 1.99
Even number of corners 50.0% 49.8% 2.01
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-0 17.4% 13.8% 14.8% 0.93× 7.27
0-1 16.6% 13.8% 10.3% 1.33× 7.27
1-1 13.5% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
1-0 12.8% 11.5% 14.2% 0.81× 8.73
0-2 8.5% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.48
1-2 6.5% 7.4% 7.1% 1.04× 13.48
2-0 5.1% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.48
2-1 5.1% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.48
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.47
0-4 0.7% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.49
1-3 2.2% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.48
1-4 0.5% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
2-2 2.5% 1.7% 2.3% 0.75× 58.48
2-3 0.8% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
2-4 0.2% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
3-0 1.3% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.48
3-1 1.3% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.48
3-2 0.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.49
3-3 0.2% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
3-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 14.91× 58.49
4-0 0.3% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.49
4-1 0.3% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.49
4-2 0.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.97× 58.49
4-3 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
4-4 0.0% 1.7% 0.2% 7.45× 58.49
Any other score 0.5% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.49
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 55.4% 57.5% 1.74
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 44.6% 42.5% 2.36
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw (X2) 73.0% 72.1% 58.3% 1.24× 1.39
Talleres (Córdoba) or Belgrano (Córdoba) (12) 66.3% 69.6% 69.4% 1.00× 1.44
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (1X) 60.7% 63.6% 72.2% 0.88× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw at HT 79.9% 80.0% 1.25
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw at HT 75.0% 79.7% 1.25
Talleres (Córdoba) or Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT 45.1% 51.5% 1.94
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 73.0% 80.2% 1.25
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 60.7% 71.5% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 78.0% 76.9% 1.30
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 67.6% 65.5% 1.53
Talleres (Córdoba) or Belgrano (Córdoba) in 2nd half 54.4% 54.7% 1.83
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 75.1% 75.7% 1.32
Neither half drawn 24.9% 24.3% 4.11
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (DNB) 59.2% 58.3% 39.9% 1.46× 1.72
Talleres (Córdoba) (DNB) 40.8% 41.7% 60.1% 0.69× 2.40
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score first 46.5% 45.5% 2.20
Talleres (Córdoba) to score first 36.1% 32.8% 3.05
No goal scored 17.4% 17.9% 5.58
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 65.7% 58.2% 59.5% 0.98× 1.72
Both teams to score 34.3% 41.8% 40.5% 1.03× 2.39
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both score & under 2.5 60.4% 50.0% 52.9% 0.95× 2.00
Both score & over 2.5 20.8% 27.7% 27.2% 1.02× 3.61
Both score & under 2.5 13.5% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 5.3% 8.4% 6.8% 1.23× 11.97
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 95.2% 91.7% 94.2% 0.97× 1.09
Both teams to score 2+ 4.8% 8.3% 5.8% 1.42× 12.04
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 83.8% 74.3% 1.35
Both teams to score in 2nd half 16.2% 25.7% 3.89
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 76.0% 74.1% 1.35
Both score 2nd half only 14.7% 10.8% 9.27
Both score 1st half only 7.9% 6.8% 14.71
Both score in both halves 1.5% 4.9% 20.44
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 90.6% 90.9% 1.10
Both teams to score by HT 9.4% 9.1% 10.95
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half without a goal 66.3% 66.7% 1.50
A goal in each half 33.7% 33.3% 3.00
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-1 goals 46.8% 47.4% 39.1% 1.21× 2.11
2-3 goals 42.8% 42.1% 47.4% 0.89× 2.38
4-6 goals 10.1% 16.9% 13.3% 1.27× 5.92
7+ goals 0.2% 1.8% 0.5% 3.98× 54.78
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 36.9% 36.0% 42.4% 0.85× 2.78
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 36.8% 36.0% 35.9% 1.00× 2.78
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 18.3% 19.6% 15.3% 1.28× 5.11
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score 3+ 8.0% 8.5% 6.7% 1.27× 11.82
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 46.2% 36.8% 31.9% 1.15× 2.72
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 35.7% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 13.8% 14.3% 21.8% 0.66× 6.98
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ 4.4% 6.2% 10.0% 0.62× 16.15
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 54.9% 48.5% 2.06
Belgrano (Córdoba) leading at HT 25.0% 20.3% 4.94
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT 20.1% 20.0% 4.99
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: 1 60.7% 62.4% 1.60
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: X 24.0% 23.6% 4.24
Belgrano (Córdoba) -1: 2 15.2% 17.5% 5.72
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:1) 73.0% 71.1% 58.3% 1.22× 1.41
Draw (0:1) 18.6% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.63
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:1) 8.5% 9.2% 17.5% 0.53× 10.84
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:2) 91.5% 90.8% 82.5% 1.10× 1.10
Draw (0:2) 6.5% 7.7% 12.6% 0.61× 12.96
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:2) 1.9% 3.8% 5.0% 0.74× 26.64
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:3) 98.1% 96.6% 95.0% 1.02× 1.04
Draw (0:3) 1.6% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 42.19
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:3) 0.3% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.25
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (0:4) 99.7% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:4) 0.1% 1.2% 0.6% 2.08× 83.68
Draw (0:4) 0.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.65
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (1:0) 60.7% 65.0% 72.2% 0.90× 1.54
Draw (1:0) 24.0% 21.8% 18.7% 1.17× 4.59
Belgrano (Córdoba) (1:0) 15.2% 17.0% 9.2% 1.86× 5.88
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (2:0) 84.8% 84.6% 90.8% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.8% 10.4% 6.3% 1.64× 9.65
Belgrano (Córdoba) (2:0) 4.4% 2.3% 3.0% 0.76× 44.09
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 41.8% 49.1% 2.04
Halves equal 33.2% 29.3% 3.41
1st half highest scoring 25.0% 26.5% 3.78
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede 63.1% 63.4% 57.6% 1.10× 1.58
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet 36.9% 36.6% 42.4% 0.86× 2.73
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 67.1% 68.6% 1.46
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 32.9% 31.4% 3.18
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 84.3% 81.0% 1.24
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 71.1% 71.9% 1.39
Talleres (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 70.8% 71.9% 1.39
Talleres (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 58.3% 57.5% 1.74
Talleres (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 56.1% 57.5% 1.74
Talleres (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 43.9% 42.5% 2.35
Talleres (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 41.7% 42.5% 2.35
Talleres (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 29.2% 28.1% 3.56
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 28.9% 28.1% 3.56
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 15.7% 19.0% 5.25
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 99.2% 96.4% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 95.6% 96.4% 90.0% 1.07× 1.04
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 81.8% 82.1% 68.3% 1.20× 1.22
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 53.8% 53.3% 68.1% 0.78× 1.88
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 46.2% 46.7% 31.9% 1.47× 2.14
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 18.2% 17.9% 31.7% 0.57× 5.59
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 4.4% 3.6% 10.0% 0.37× 27.42
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 0.8% 3.6% 2.9% 1.26× 27.58
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 95.6% 96.9% 1.03
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 71.7% 79.8% 1.25
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 28.3% 20.2% 4.94
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 4.4% 3.1% 32.42
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) (home no bet) 53.8% 51.6% 47.5% 1.09× 1.94
Draw (home no bet) 46.2% 48.4% 52.5% 0.92× 2.07
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) even goals 60.7% 55.9% 55.7% 1.00× 1.79
Talleres (Córdoba) odd goals 39.3% 44.1% 44.3% 1.00× 2.27
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 48.2% 47.2% 2.12
HT 0-1 19.1% 18.8% 5.33
HT 1-0 15.9% 18.7% 5.35
HT 1-1 6.4% 7.1% 14.06
HT 0-2 3.8% 2.3% 43.33
HT 2-0 2.7% 2.3% 43.41
HT 1-2 1.3% 2.3% 43.52
Any other HT score 1.3% 2.3% 43.52
HT 2-1 1.1% 2.3% 43.53
HT 2-2 0.2% 2.3% 43.60
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 25.4% 26.7% 3.75
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 20.2% 21.7% 4.60
Draw at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 17.6% 16.8% 5.96
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 14.2% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 11.9% 12.7% 7.89
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 4.4% 3.5% 28.79
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 3.9% 3.5% 28.81
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Belgrano (Córdoba) at FT 1.5% 3.5% 28.90
Belgrano (Córdoba) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 0.9% 3.5% 28.93
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score last 46.5% 46.7% 2.14
Talleres (Córdoba) to score last 36.1% 38.5% 2.60
No goal scored 17.4% 12.6% 7.92
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 82.6% 87.2% 1.15
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 50.4% 50.6% 1.98
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 39.1% 34.9% 2.86
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 29.5% 25.5% 3.92
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 18.4% 14.9% 6.70
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 11.1% 10.4% 9.57
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 7.5% 6.6% 15.06
Belgrano (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 5.1% 6.6% 15.17
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 2.4% 1.6% 61.93
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) most corners 59.2% 55.5% 1.80
Belgrano (Córdoba) most corners 29.8% 31.0% 3.23
Corners level 10.9% 10.4% 9.61
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 81.6% 83.5% 84.3% 0.99× 1.20
1-4 goals 79.1% 78.6% 80.0% 0.98× 1.27
1-3 goals 72.2% 72.4% 71.7% 1.01× 1.38
1-2 goals 56.5% 59.2% 51.5% 1.15× 1.69
2-6 goals 52.9% 53.2% 60.6% 0.88× 1.88
2-5 goals 52.2% 53.2% 60.0% 0.89× 1.88
2-4 goals 49.8% 48.7% 55.7% 0.87× 2.06
2-3 goals 42.8% 43.6% 47.4% 0.92× 2.30
3-6 goals 25.9% 30.2% 33.5% 0.90× 3.31
3-5 goals 25.2% 30.2% 32.9% 0.92× 3.31
3-4 goals 22.7% 24.5% 28.7% 0.85× 4.09
4-6 goals 10.1% 14.9% 13.3% 1.12× 6.73
4-5 goals 9.4% 8.7% 12.7% 0.69× 11.43
5-6 goals 3.2% 2.6% 4.9% 0.52× 39.19
7+ goals 0.2% 2.5% 0.5% 5.54× 39.32
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Belgrano (Córdoba) never behind 43.5% 48.3% 2.07
Talleres (Córdoba) never behind 32.2% 35.6% 2.81
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 47.8% 50.8% 49.1% 1.04× 1.97
Even number of goals 52.2% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 61.7% 58.4% 1.71
Odd goals in 1st half 38.3% 41.6% 2.40
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 56.5% 59.1% 1.69
Odd goals in 2nd half 43.5% 40.9% 2.45
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 99.0% 95.5% 99.0% 0.97× 1.05
Under 4.5 goals 96.6% 95.5% 94.7% 1.01× 1.05
Under 3.5 goals 89.6% 87.7% 86.4% 1.02× 1.14
Over 0.5 goals 82.6% 82.4% 85.2% 0.97× 1.21
Under 2.5 goals 73.9% 72.5% 66.2% 1.10× 1.38
Over 1.5 goals 53.2% 52.5% 60.9% 0.86× 1.91
Under 1.5 goals 46.8% 47.5% 39.1% 1.22× 2.11
Over 2.5 goals 26.1% 27.5% 33.8% 0.81× 3.64
Under 0.5 goals 17.4% 17.6% 14.8% 1.19× 5.68
Over 3.5 goals 10.4% 12.3% 13.6% 0.90× 8.10
Over 4.5 goals 3.4% 4.5% 5.3% 0.85× 22.21
Over 5.5 goals 1.0% 4.5% 1.0% 4.35× 22.25
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 99.8% 97.2% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 99.0% 97.2% 98.9% 0.98× 1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 96.3% 97.2% 94.2% 1.03× 1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 87.7% 86.7% 82.9% 1.05× 1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 64.2% 62.1% 53.6% 1.16× 1.61
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 35.8% 37.9% 46.4% 0.82× 2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 12.3% 13.3% 17.1% 0.78× 7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 3.7% 2.8% 5.8% 0.48× 36.11
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 1.0% 2.8% 1.1% 2.56× 36.19
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 0.2% 2.8% 0.5% 5.98× 36.22
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 96.2% 96.8% 1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half 83.3% 86.3% 1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half 51.8% 56.5% 1.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half 48.2% 43.5% 2.30
Over 1.5 in 1st half 16.7% 13.7% 7.28
Over 2.5 in 1st half 3.8% 3.2% 30.93
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 91.3% 88.9% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 72.0% 77.7% 1.29
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 64.5% 61.9% 1.62
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 35.5% 38.2% 2.62
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 28.0% 22.3% 4.48
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 8.7% 11.1% 9.04
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 89.9% 86.0% 1.16
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 85.2% 85.6% 1.17
Belgrano (Córdoba) to score in both halves 14.8% 14.4% 6.96
Talleres (Córdoba) to score in both halves 10.1% 14.0% 7.13
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 34.3% 33.4% 40.5% 0.82× 3.00
Only Belgrano (Córdoba) scores 28.7% 26.1% 17.2% 1.52× 3.83
Only Talleres (Córdoba) scores 19.5% 16.1% 27.8% 0.58× 6.21
Neither team scores 17.4% 16.1% 14.8% 1.09× 6.22
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 1 goals 29.4% 25.0% 24.4% 1.02× 4.00
Exactly 2 goals 27.1% 25.0% 27.2% 0.92× 4.01
Exactly 0 goals 17.4% 17.4% 14.8% 1.18× 5.74
Exactly 3 goals 15.7% 17.4% 20.3% 0.86× 5.74
Exactly 4 goals 7.0% 7.6% 8.5% 0.90× 13.09
Exactly 5 goals 2.5% 4.4% 4.4% 1.01× 22.68
6 or more goals 1.0% 4.4% 1.0% 4.27× 22.70
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1 goal in 2nd half 36.5% 39.6% 2.53
No goals in 2nd half 35.5% 39.5% 2.53
2+ goals in 2nd half 28.0% 29.8% 3.35
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win both halves 95.5% 97.2% 1.03
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to win both halves 91.8% 93.9% 1.07
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win both halves 8.2% 6.1% 16.47
Talleres (Córdoba) to win both halves 4.5% 2.8% 35.37
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to win neither half 62.4% 65.1% 1.54
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win neither half 50.8% 54.9% 1.82
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win either half 49.2% 45.1% 2.22
Talleres (Córdoba) to win either half 37.6% 34.9% 2.86
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win to nil 80.5% 83.0% 72.2% 1.15× 1.21
Belgrano (Córdoba) not to win to nil 71.3% 75.3% 82.8% 0.91× 1.33
Belgrano (Córdoba) to win to nil 28.7% 24.7% 17.2% 1.44× 4.05
Talleres (Córdoba) to win to nil 19.5% 17.0% 27.8% 0.61× 5.89
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 33.7% 27.6% 30.6% 0.90× 3.62
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 1 24.0% 24.2% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Talleres (Córdoba) by 1 18.6% 16.9% 24.3% 0.70× 5.91
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 2 10.8% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.48
Talleres (Córdoba) by 2 6.5% 7.3% 12.6% 0.58× 13.79
Belgrano (Córdoba) by 3+ 4.4% 2.7% 3.0% 0.91× 36.94
Talleres (Córdoba) by 3+ 1.9% 2.7% 5.0% 0.54× 37.02
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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