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Talleres (Córdoba) v Unión (Santa Fe) — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 12 September 2026 · ARG-Liga Profesional · 2627

ARG-Liga Profesional results-only Prediction generated

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily
Talleres (Córdoba) win
30.2%
model 34.1%
Draw
29.3%
model 27.0%
Unión (Santa Fe) win
40.5%
model 38.8%

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (483 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

  1. 1-1 12.9%
  2. 0-1 9.6%
  3. 1-0 8.9%
  4. 1-2 8.5%
  5. 2-1 7.8%

Goals

Over 2.548.4% Under 2.551.6%
BTTS yes53.4% BTTS no46.6%
Talleres (Córdoba) 1+71.5% Talleres (Córdoba) 2+35.7%
Unión (Santa Fe) 1+74.2% Unión (Santa Fe) 2+39.3%

Expected goals 1.25 – 1.36. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence
22/100
Data quality
55/100
Model agreement
98%
★ Best pick
Both teams to score
GG/NG · usually 41%
54.1% fair odds 1.85
strong signal · 1233 settled matches behind the band
★ Most likely to land
Not both to score by HT
GG/NG half time
83.0% fair odds 1.21
moderate signal · 1236 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

  • Unión (Santa Fe) carry the stronger rating, 1508 Elo against 1452.
  • Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Risk factors

  • Data quality is 55/100, so this price rests on less than the model would like.
  • The model's measured edge in this competition is -0.0033 nats, which is not meaningfully better than the base rates.
Why the model thinks this

The price

Unión (Santa Fe) have an estimated 40.5% win probability, against 30.2% for Talleres (Córdoba) and 29.3% for the draw. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.25 for Talleres (Córdoba) and 1.35 for Unión (Santa Fe).

Why Talleres (Córdoba)

Nothing in the data singles out Talleres (Córdoba).

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 29.3%. The sides are closely matched on expected goals, 1.25 to 1.35. Draws run at 31% in this competition.

Why Unión (Santa Fe) can win

Unión (Santa Fe) carry the stronger rating, 1508 Elo against 1452. Form is good: 1.80 points a match from the last five.

Key players

No player-level data for this fixture; the leagues with lineups are the big five.

Availability

No lineup on record for Talleres (Córdoba), so availability is unknown. No lineup on record for Unión (Santa Fe), so availability is unknown.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Talleres (Córdoba): 53% possession, 14.0 shots a match, 21.0 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Unión (Santa Fe): 51% possession, 14.4 shots a match, 11.4 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Unión (Santa Fe) are the model's most likely outcome at 40.5%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-1 at 12.9%. Confidence 22/100, data quality 55/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the model said

ModelHome / Draw / Away Expected goalsLikeliest score O2.5BTTS
ai-blend 1.25–1.36 0% 0% 0%
dc-xg 1.34–1.36 1-1 13% 50% 55%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section
Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to win 37.1% 36.4% 27.8% 1.31× 2.74
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 36.3% 36.4% 41.7% 0.87× 2.75
Draw 26.6% 27.9% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
1X2 & GG/NG 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw & both teams score 19.4% 17.9% 15.9% 1.12× 5.58
Unión (Santa Fe) & not both score 19.2% 17.9% 17.2% 1.04× 5.58
Talleres (Córdoba) & not both score 18.7% 17.9% 27.8% 0.65× 5.58
Unión (Santa Fe) & both teams score 18.0% 17.9% 10.7% 1.68× 5.58
Talleres (Córdoba) & both teams score 17.6% 17.9% 14.1% 1.27× 5.58
Draw & not both score 7.1% 8.4% 14.8% 0.57× 11.95
1X2 & Over/Under 18
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 1.5 28.3% 26.0% 17.5% 1.48× 3.84
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 1.5 27.6% 26.0% 27.6% 0.94× 3.84
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 3.5 26.2% 26.0% 23.6% 1.10× 3.84
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 3.5 25.7% 26.0% 34.9% 0.75× 3.84
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 2.5 22.1% 21.6% 13.2% 1.64× 4.62
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 2.5 21.5% 21.6% 18.2% 1.19× 4.62
Draw & under 2.5 19.8% 18.0% 28.1% 0.64× 5.56
Draw & under 3.5 19.8% 18.0% 28.1% 0.64× 5.56
Draw & over 1.5 19.4% 18.0% 15.9% 1.13× 5.56
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 2.5 15.1% 18.0% 14.7% 1.23× 5.56
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 2.5 14.8% 12.9% 23.6% 0.54× 7.77
Talleres (Córdoba) & over 3.5 10.6% 12.9% 7.0% 1.84× 7.78
Unión (Santa Fe) & over 3.5 11.0% 12.9% 4.2% 3.03× 7.78
Talleres (Córdoba) & under 1.5 8.7% 7.9% 14.2% 0.55× 12.69
Unión (Santa Fe) & under 1.5 8.8% 7.9% 10.3% 0.76× 12.69
Draw & under 1.5 7.1% 7.9% 14.8% 0.53× 12.69
Draw & over 2.5 6.8% 7.9% 2.6% 2.99× 12.69
Draw & over 3.5 6.8% 7.9% 2.6% 2.99× 12.69
1X2 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (1UP) 54.0% 52.9% 1.89
Talleres (Córdoba) (1UP) 53.3% 52.8% 1.89
1X2 2UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (2UP) 37.1% 37.0% 2.71
Talleres (Córdoba) (2UP) 36.3% 36.9% 2.71
2nd half 1X2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half drawn 35.9% 36.0% 2.78
Unión (Santa Fe) to win 2nd half 33.5% 34.5% 2.90
Talleres (Córdoba) to win 2nd half 30.6% 34.4% 2.91
Asian handicap 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (+2.5) 94.2% 92.1% 95.0% 0.97× 1.09
Unión (Santa Fe) (+1.5) 83.5% 82.4% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Unión (Santa Fe) (+0.5) 63.7% 62.9% 58.3% 1.08× 1.59
Talleres (Córdoba) (+0.5) 62.9% 62.9% 72.2% 0.87× 1.59
Unión (Santa Fe) (-0.5) 37.1% 37.1% 27.8% 1.34× 2.69
Talleres (Córdoba) (-0.5) 36.3% 37.1% 41.7% 0.89× 2.69
Talleres (Córdoba) (-1.5) 16.5% 17.6% 17.5% 1.00× 5.69
Talleres (Córdoba) (-2.5) 5.8% 7.9% 5.0% 1.56× 12.69
Away clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to concede 73.7% 76.5% 68.1% 1.12× 1.31
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet 26.3% 23.5% 31.9% 0.74× 4.26
Away clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) clean sheet in 1st half 56.3% 57.6% 1.74
Unión (Santa Fe) to concede in 1st half 43.7% 42.4% 2.36
Away corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 6.5 corners 81.4% 80.9% 1.24
Unión (Santa Fe) over 2.5 corners 75.0% 72.4% 1.38
Unión (Santa Fe) under 5.5 corners 71.1% 72.3% 1.38
Unión (Santa Fe) over 3.5 corners 58.6% 56.9% 1.76
Unión (Santa Fe) under 4.5 corners 57.5% 56.9% 1.76
Unión (Santa Fe) over 4.5 corners 42.5% 43.1% 2.32
Unión (Santa Fe) under 3.5 corners 41.4% 43.1% 2.32
Unión (Santa Fe) over 5.5 corners 28.9% 27.7% 3.61
Unión (Santa Fe) under 2.5 corners 25.0% 27.6% 3.62
Unión (Santa Fe) over 6.5 corners 18.6% 19.1% 5.25
Away goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 3.5 goals 95.1% 97.6% 98.9% 0.99× 1.03
Unión (Santa Fe) under 2.5 goals 84.4% 81.5% 93.3% 0.87× 1.23
Unión (Santa Fe) over 0.5 goals 74.2% 71.9% 57.6% 1.25× 1.39
Unión (Santa Fe) under 1.5 goals 60.7% 62.9% 78.2% 0.80× 1.59
Unión (Santa Fe) over 1.5 goals 39.3% 37.1% 21.8% 1.70× 2.70
Unión (Santa Fe) under 0.5 goals 25.8% 28.1% 42.4% 0.66× 3.56
Unión (Santa Fe) over 2.5 goals 15.6% 18.5% 6.7% 2.78× 5.40
Unión (Santa Fe) over 3.5 goals 4.9% 2.4% 1.1% 2.13× 40.93
Away goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) under 1.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.7% 1.12
Unión (Santa Fe) under 0.5 in 1st half 58.2% 63.0% 1.59
Unión (Santa Fe) over 0.5 in 1st half 41.8% 37.0% 2.70
Unión (Santa Fe) over 1.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.3% 9.68
Away no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (away no bet) 57.7% 57.5% 57.7% 1.00× 1.74
Draw (away no bet) 42.3% 42.5% 42.3% 1.00× 2.35
Away Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) even goals 53.3% 52.7% 58.4% 0.90× 1.90
Unión (Santa Fe) odd goals 46.7% 47.3% 41.6% 1.14× 2.12
Both halves O1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves over 1.5 85.7% 87.8% 1.14
Both halves over 1.5 goals 14.3% 12.2% 8.20
Both halves U1.5 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both halves under 1.5 63.2% 57.8% 1.73
Both halves under 1.5 goals 36.8% 42.2% 2.37
Consecutive goals 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row 54.7% 51.3% 1.95
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 2+ in a row 30.8% 28.5% 3.51
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 2+ in a row 30.1% 28.4% 3.52
Either team to score 3+ in a row 18.6% 16.4% 6.08
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 3+ in a row 9.6% 5.6% 17.75
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ in a row 9.3% 5.6% 17.78
Corner handicap 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+3.5) 87.4% 84.2% 1.19
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+2.5) 80.9% 80.0% 1.25
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+3.5) 78.4% 75.5% 1.33
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (+1.5) 72.5% 69.9% 1.43
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+2.5) 69.8% 66.8% 1.50
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (+1.5) 59.6% 56.8% 1.76
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-1.5) 40.4% 43.2% 2.32
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-2.5) 30.2% 33.2% 3.01
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-1.5) 27.5% 30.1% 3.32
Talleres (Córdoba) corners (-3.5) 21.6% 24.5% 4.08
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-2.5) 19.1% 20.0% 5.00
Unión (Santa Fe) corners (-3.5) 12.6% 15.8% 6.32
Corner range 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
0-8 corners 44.2% 37.1% 2.70
9-11 corners 29.2% 31.8% 3.15
12+ corners 26.6% 31.8% 3.15
Corners O/U 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 12.5 corners 80.5% 79.8% 1.25
Under 11.5 corners 73.4% 72.5% 1.38
Over 7.5 corners 66.6% 67.9% 1.47
Under 10.5 corners 64.8% 62.7% 1.60
Over 8.5 corners 55.8% 57.8% 1.73
Under 9.5 corners 54.9% 52.3% 1.91
Over 9.5 corners 45.1% 47.7% 2.09
Under 8.5 corners 44.2% 42.2% 2.37
Over 10.5 corners 35.2% 37.3% 2.68
Under 7.5 corners 33.4% 32.1% 3.12
Over 11.5 corners 26.6% 27.5% 3.64
Over 12.5 corners 19.5% 20.2% 4.96
Corners Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even number of corners 50.0% 50.4% 1.98
Odd number of corners 50.0% 49.6% 2.02
Correct score 26
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-1 12.6% 11.5% 13.4% 0.85× 8.73
0-1 8.8% 7.4% 10.3% 0.72× 13.46
1-0 8.7% 7.4% 14.2% 0.52× 13.46
0-0 7.1% 7.4% 14.8% 0.50× 13.46
1-2 8.3% 7.4% 7.1% 1.05× 13.46
2-1 8.2% 7.4% 8.7% 0.85× 13.46
0-2 6.2% 7.4% 4.5% 1.66× 13.46
2-0 6.1% 7.4% 9.5% 0.78× 13.46
2-2 5.6% 7.4% 2.3% 3.24× 13.46
0-3 2.8% 1.7% 2.1% 0.83× 58.58
0-4 1.0% 1.7% 0.6% 2.98× 58.59
1-3 3.8% 1.7% 2.0% 0.88× 58.57
1-4 1.3% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
2-3 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.58
2-4 0.9% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
3-0 2.7% 1.7% 2.8% 0.62× 58.58
3-1 3.7% 1.7% 3.0% 0.57× 58.57
3-2 2.5% 1.7% 1.5% 1.15× 58.58
3-3 1.1% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
3-4 0.4% 1.7% 0.1% 14.88× 58.59
4-0 0.9% 1.7% 1.1% 1.49× 58.59
4-1 1.2% 1.7% 0.8% 2.13× 58.59
4-2 0.8% 1.7% 0.3% 4.96× 58.59
4-3 0.4% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
4-4 0.1% 1.7% 0.2% 7.44× 58.59
Any other score 2.4% 1.7% 0.9% 1.86× 58.58
DNB half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT (DNB) 51.9% 55.6% 1.80
Unión (Santa Fe) leading at HT (DNB) 48.1% 44.4% 2.25
Double chance 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) or Unión (Santa Fe) (12) 73.4% 72.1% 69.4% 1.04× 1.39
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw (X2) 63.7% 63.6% 58.3% 1.09× 1.57
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (1X) 62.9% 63.6% 72.2% 0.88× 1.57
Double chance 1HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw at HT 73.0% 74.7% 1.34
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw at HT 70.9% 74.6% 1.34
Talleres (Córdoba) or Unión (Santa Fe) at HT 56.1% 56.8% 1.76
Double chance 1UP 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw (1UP) 63.7% 71.4% 1.40
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw (1UP) 62.9% 71.4% 1.40
Double chance 2HT 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) or draw in 2nd half 69.4% 65.6% 1.53
Talleres (Córdoba) or draw in 2nd half 66.5% 65.5% 1.53
Talleres (Córdoba) or Unión (Santa Fe) in 2nd half 64.1% 64.0% 1.56
Draw either half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A half drawn 63.6% 61.6% 1.62
Neither half drawn 36.4% 38.4% 2.61
Draw no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (DNB) 50.6% 50.9% 39.9% 1.27× 1.97
Talleres (Córdoba) (DNB) 49.4% 49.1% 60.1% 0.82× 2.04
First goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score first 46.8% 45.5% 2.20
Talleres (Córdoba) to score first 46.1% 45.5% 2.20
No goal scored 7.1% 7.4% 13.55
GG/NG 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams to score 55.1% 54.7% 40.5% 1.35× 1.83
Not both teams to score 44.9% 45.3% 59.5% 0.76× 2.21
GG/NG & Over/Under 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both score & over 2.5 42.4% 41.5% 27.2% 1.53× 2.41
Not both score & under 2.5 37.0% 38.5% 52.9% 0.73× 2.60
Both score & under 2.5 12.6% 12.3% 13.4% 0.92× 8.11
Not both score & over 2.5 8.0% 8.4% 6.8% 1.24× 11.96
GG/NG 2+ 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both teams to score 2+ 84.9% 83.2% 94.2% 0.88× 1.20
Both teams to score 2+ 15.1% 16.8% 5.8% 2.87× 5.96
GG/NG 2nd half 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half 70.2% 74.4% 1.34
Both teams to score in 2nd half 29.8% 25.6% 3.91
GG/NG by half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Neither half both score 57.3% 59.8% 1.67
Both score 2nd half only 24.4% 21.2% 4.72
Both score 1st half only 12.9% 10.5% 9.53
Both score in both halves 5.4% 6.7% 15.03
GG/NG half time 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Not both to score by HT 81.7% 82.8% 1.21
Both teams to score by HT 18.3% 17.2% 5.82
Goal in both halves 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
A goal in each half 53.5% 53.4% 1.87
A half without a goal 46.5% 46.6% 2.15
Goal range 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2-3 goals 46.9% 47.4% 47.4% 1.00× 2.11
4-6 goals 26.4% 26.4% 13.3% 1.99× 3.79
0-1 goals 24.7% 22.8% 39.1% 0.58× 4.38
7+ goals 2.0% 1.8% 0.5% 3.95× 55.23
Goals away 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 1 35.0% 33.9% 35.9% 0.94× 2.95
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 0 25.8% 27.4% 42.4% 0.65× 3.65
Unión (Santa Fe) to score exactly 2 23.7% 22.4% 15.3% 1.47× 4.47
Unión (Santa Fe) to score 3+ 15.6% 19.5% 6.7% 2.94× 5.12
Goals home 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 1 35.1% 35.6% 36.6% 0.97× 2.81
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 0 26.3% 26.5% 31.9% 0.83× 3.77
Talleres (Córdoba) to score exactly 2 23.5% 23.3% 21.8% 1.07× 4.30
Talleres (Córdoba) to score 3+ 15.1% 18.9% 10.0% 1.89× 5.30
Half time 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw at HT 43.9% 43.2% 2.31
Talleres (Córdoba) leading at HT 29.1% 25.4% 3.93
Unión (Santa Fe) leading at HT 27.0% 25.3% 3.95
Handicap 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: 1 62.9% 62.4% 1.60
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: X 20.1% 23.6% 4.24
Unión (Santa Fe) -1: 2 17.1% 17.5% 5.71
Handicap 0:1 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:1) 63.7% 61.3% 58.3% 1.05× 1.63
Draw (0:1) 19.8% 17.8% 24.3% 0.73× 5.62
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:1) 16.5% 17.8% 17.5% 1.01× 5.62
Handicap 0:2 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:2) 83.5% 82.8% 82.5% 1.00× 1.21
Draw (0:2) 10.6% 11.0% 12.6% 0.87× 9.09
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:2) 5.8% 7.7% 5.0% 1.53× 12.99
Handicap 0:3 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:3) 94.2% 92.7% 95.0% 0.98× 1.08
Draw (0:3) 4.2% 2.4% 3.4% 0.69× 41.95
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:3) 1.7% 2.4% 1.7% 1.38× 42.07
Handicap 0:4 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (0:4) 98.3% 98.1% 98.3% 1.00× 1.02
Draw (0:4) 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 0.95× 83.32
Talleres (Córdoba) (0:4) 0.4% 1.2% 0.6% 2.09× 83.43
Handicap 1:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (1:0) 62.9% 65.2% 72.2% 0.90× 1.53
Draw (1:0) 20.1% 21.7% 18.7% 1.16× 4.61
Unión (Santa Fe) (1:0) 17.1% 17.0% 9.2% 1.86× 5.87
Handicap 2:0 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) (2:0) 82.9% 84.5% 90.8% 0.93× 1.18
Draw (2:0) 10.9% 10.4% 6.3% 1.65× 9.63
Unión (Santa Fe) (2:0) 6.1% 6.5% 3.0% 2.16× 15.50
Highest scoring half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2nd half highest scoring 47.6% 48.2% 2.07
1st half highest scoring 26.7% 26.5% 3.77
Halves equal 25.6% 26.5% 3.77
Home clean sheet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede 74.2% 73.1% 57.6% 1.27× 1.37
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet 25.8% 26.9% 42.4% 0.63× 3.71
Home clean sheet 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) clean sheet in 1st half 58.2% 63.0% 1.59
Talleres (Córdoba) to concede in 1st half 41.8% 37.0% 2.70
Home corners O/U 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 corners 81.6% 81.3% 1.23
Talleres (Córdoba) under 6.5 corners 73.2% 71.5% 1.40
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 corners 67.6% 67.8% 1.48
Talleres (Córdoba) under 5.5 corners 61.5% 62.0% 1.61
Talleres (Córdoba) over 4.5 corners 52.5% 53.0% 1.89
Talleres (Córdoba) under 4.5 corners 47.5% 47.0% 2.13
Talleres (Córdoba) over 5.5 corners 38.5% 38.0% 2.63
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 corners 32.4% 32.2% 3.10
Talleres (Córdoba) over 6.5 corners 26.8% 28.5% 3.51
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 corners 18.4% 18.7% 5.36
Home goals O/U 8
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 3.5 goals 95.3% 96.3% 97.1% 0.99× 1.04
Talleres (Córdoba) under 2.5 goals 84.9% 82.2% 90.0% 0.91× 1.22
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 goals 73.7% 74.2% 68.1% 1.09× 1.35
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 goals 61.4% 63.4% 68.3% 0.93× 1.58
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 goals 38.6% 36.6% 31.7% 1.16× 2.73
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 goals 26.3% 25.8% 31.9% 0.81× 3.88
Talleres (Córdoba) over 2.5 goals 15.1% 17.8% 10.0% 1.79× 5.61
Talleres (Córdoba) over 3.5 goals 4.7% 3.7% 2.9% 1.28× 27.35
Home goals O/U 1HT 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) under 1.5 in 1st half 88.6% 90.0% 1.11
Talleres (Córdoba) under 0.5 in 1st half 56.3% 57.2% 1.75
Talleres (Córdoba) over 0.5 in 1st half 43.7% 42.8% 2.34
Talleres (Córdoba) over 1.5 in 1st half 11.4% 10.0% 10.01
Home no bet 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) (home no bet) 58.3% 56.7% 47.5% 1.19× 1.76
Draw (home no bet) 41.7% 43.3% 52.5% 0.83× 2.31
Home Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) even goals 53.5% 50.7% 55.7% 0.91× 1.97
Talleres (Córdoba) odd goals 46.5% 49.3% 44.3% 1.11× 2.03
HT correct score 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
HT 0-0 32.8% 32.5% 3.08
HT 1-0 18.7% 18.9% 5.29
HT 0-1 17.7% 18.9% 5.30
HT 1-1 10.3% 11.0% 9.07
HT 2-0 5.4% 7.1% 14.13
HT 0-2 4.8% 2.2% 44.56
Any other HT score 3.8% 2.2% 44.64
HT 2-1 2.9% 2.2% 44.71
HT 1-2 2.8% 2.2% 44.72
HT 2-2 0.8% 2.2% 44.88
HT/FT 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 21.0% 22.1% 4.53
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT 20.1% 22.1% 4.53
Draw at HT / Draw at FT 16.1% 16.8% 5.96
Draw at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT 14.5% 12.7% 7.88
Draw at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 13.2% 12.7% 7.89
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Draw at FT 5.6% 6.0% 16.63
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Draw at FT 4.9% 3.4% 29.09
Talleres (Córdoba) at HT / Unión (Santa Fe) at FT 2.6% 3.4% 29.18
Unión (Santa Fe) at HT / Talleres (Córdoba) at FT 2.1% 3.4% 29.20
Last goal 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to score last 46.8% 46.9% 2.13
Talleres (Córdoba) to score last 46.1% 46.8% 2.14
No goal scored 7.1% 7.4% 13.55
Lead at any time 9
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time 92.9% 92.7% 1.08
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 1 at any time 54.0% 50.6% 1.98
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 1 at any time 53.3% 50.6% 1.98
Either team to lead by 2 at any time 45.3% 43.9% 2.28
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 2 at any time 23.1% 19.6% 5.10
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 2 at any time 22.4% 19.6% 5.10
Either team to lead by 3 at any time 15.5% 14.9% 6.72
Unión (Santa Fe) to lead by 3 at any time 7.9% 6.5% 15.30
Talleres (Córdoba) to lead by 3 at any time 7.6% 6.5% 15.32
Most corners 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) most corners 51.4% 52.9% 1.89
Unión (Santa Fe) most corners 37.6% 38.6% 2.59
Corners level 11.0% 10.6% 9.40
Multi goal 15
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
1-5 goals 87.3% 87.4% 84.3% 1.04× 1.14
1-4 goals 79.3% 78.6% 80.0% 0.98× 1.27
2-6 goals 73.3% 72.4% 60.6% 1.20× 1.38
2-5 goals 69.7% 69.0% 60.0% 1.15× 1.45
1-3 goals 64.5% 63.5% 71.7% 0.89× 1.58
2-4 goals 61.8% 63.5% 55.7% 1.14× 1.58
3-6 goals 48.4% 48.7% 33.5% 1.45× 2.06
2-3 goals 46.9% 48.7% 47.4% 1.03× 2.06
3-5 goals 44.8% 43.6% 32.9% 1.33× 2.29
1-2 goals 42.4% 43.6% 51.5% 0.85× 2.29
3-4 goals 36.8% 39.2% 28.7% 1.37× 2.55
4-6 goals 26.4% 30.2% 13.3% 2.27× 3.31
4-5 goals 22.8% 24.4% 12.7% 1.92× 4.09
5-6 goals 11.6% 14.8% 4.9% 3.01× 6.74
7+ goals 2.0% 2.5% 0.5% 5.52× 39.49
Never down 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) never behind 39.6% 45.0% 2.23
Talleres (Córdoba) never behind 38.8% 44.9% 2.23
Odd/Even 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Odd number of goals 49.1% 50.8% 49.1% 1.03× 1.97
Even number of goals 50.9% 49.2% 50.9% 0.97× 2.03
Odd/Even 1HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 1st half 55.5% 57.8% 1.73
Odd goals in 1st half 44.5% 42.2% 2.37
Odd/Even 2HT 2
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Even goals in 2nd half 52.4% 52.0% 1.92
Odd goals in 2nd half 47.6% 48.0% 2.08
Over/Under 12
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 5.5 goals 94.4% 92.3% 99.0% 0.93× 1.08
Over 0.5 goals 92.9% 92.3% 85.2% 1.08× 1.08
Under 4.5 goals 86.4% 87.7% 94.7% 0.93× 1.14
Over 1.5 goals 75.3% 77.4% 60.9% 1.27× 1.29
Under 3.5 goals 71.6% 72.5% 86.4% 0.84× 1.38
Over 2.5 goals 50.4% 52.4% 33.8% 1.55× 1.91
Under 2.5 goals 49.6% 47.6% 66.2% 0.72× 2.10
Over 3.5 goals 28.4% 27.5% 13.6% 2.01× 3.64
Under 1.5 goals 24.7% 22.6% 39.1% 0.58× 4.42
Over 4.5 goals 13.6% 12.3% 5.3% 2.34× 8.11
Under 0.5 goals 7.1% 7.7% 14.8% 0.52× 12.95
Over 5.5 goals 5.6% 7.7% 1.0% 7.48× 12.96
Over/Under (whole line) 10
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6) 97.9% 97.3% 99.5% 0.98× 1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5) 93.9% 92.5% 98.9% 0.93× 1.08
Under 4 (void on exactly 4) 84.1% 81.1% 94.2% 0.86× 1.23
Over 2 (void on exactly 2) 67.1% 67.3% 46.4% 1.45× 1.49
Under 3 (void on exactly 3) 63.6% 62.1% 82.9% 0.75× 1.61
Over 3 (void on exactly 3) 36.4% 37.9% 17.1% 2.21× 2.64
Under 2 (void on exactly 2) 32.9% 32.7% 53.6% 0.61× 3.06
Over 4 (void on exactly 4) 15.9% 18.9% 5.8% 3.28× 5.30
Over 5 (void on exactly 5) 6.1% 7.5% 1.1% 6.99× 13.28
Over 6 (void on exactly 6) 2.1% 2.7% 0.5% 5.96× 36.38
Over/Under 1HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half 89.7% 89.4% 1.12
Under 1.5 in 1st half 69.2% 69.1% 1.45
Over 0.5 in 1st half 67.2% 69.0% 1.45
Under 0.5 in 1st half 32.8% 31.0% 3.23
Over 1.5 in 1st half 30.8% 30.9% 3.23
Over 2.5 in 1st half 10.3% 10.6% 9.42
Over/Under 2HT 6
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Over 0.5 in 2nd half 79.2% 80.0% 1.25
Under 2.5 in 2nd half 79.0% 80.0% 1.25
Under 1.5 in 2nd half 53.2% 53.1% 1.88
Over 1.5 in 2nd half 46.8% 46.9% 2.13
Over 2.5 in 2nd half 21.0% 20.0% 5.00
Under 0.5 in 2nd half 20.8% 20.0% 5.00
Score both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to score in both halves 76.7% 78.4% 1.28
Unión (Santa Fe) not to score in both halves 76.7% 78.4% 1.28
Talleres (Córdoba) to score in both halves 23.3% 21.6% 4.62
Unión (Santa Fe) to score in both halves 23.3% 21.6% 4.62
Teams to score 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Both teams score 55.1% 58.2% 40.5% 1.44× 1.72
Only Unión (Santa Fe) scores 19.2% 16.1% 17.2% 0.94× 6.20
Only Talleres (Córdoba) scores 18.7% 16.1% 27.8% 0.58× 6.20
Neither team scores 7.1% 7.2% 14.8% 0.48× 13.94
Total goals 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Exactly 2 goals 24.9% 22.7% 27.2% 0.83× 4.42
Exactly 3 goals 22.0% 22.6% 20.3% 1.12× 4.42
Exactly 1 goals 17.5% 17.5% 24.4% 0.71× 5.73
Exactly 4 goals 14.8% 12.1% 8.5% 1.42× 8.29
Exactly 5 goals 8.0% 7.6% 4.4% 1.75× 13.13
Exactly 0 goals 7.1% 7.6% 14.8% 0.51× 13.14
6 or more goals 5.6% 7.6% 1.0% 7.37× 13.14
Total goals 2nd half 3
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
2+ goals in 2nd half 46.8% 44.7% 2.24
1 goal in 2nd half 32.4% 33.8% 2.96
No goals in 2nd half 20.8% 23.4% 4.28
Win both halves 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win both halves 91.0% 93.9% 1.07
Unión (Santa Fe) not to win both halves 90.9% 93.9% 1.07
Unión (Santa Fe) to win both halves 9.1% 6.1% 16.45
Talleres (Córdoba) to win both halves 9.0% 6.1% 16.46
Win either half 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Unión (Santa Fe) to win either half 51.4% 54.7% 1.83
Talleres (Córdoba) to win either half 50.7% 54.7% 1.83
Talleres (Córdoba) to win neither half 49.3% 45.3% 2.21
Unión (Santa Fe) to win neither half 48.6% 45.3% 2.21
Win to nil 4
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Talleres (Córdoba) not to win to nil 81.3% 83.0% 72.2% 1.15× 1.21
Unión (Santa Fe) not to win to nil 80.8% 83.0% 82.8% 1.00× 1.21
Unión (Santa Fe) to win to nil 19.2% 17.0% 17.2% 0.99× 5.87
Talleres (Córdoba) to win to nil 18.7% 17.0% 27.8% 0.61× 5.87
Winning margin 7
SelectionModelCalibrated BaseLiftFair odds
Draw 26.6% 27.8% 30.6% 0.91× 3.59
Unión (Santa Fe) by 1 20.1% 24.1% 18.7% 1.29× 4.14
Talleres (Córdoba) by 1 19.8% 17.0% 24.3% 0.70× 5.90
Unión (Santa Fe) by 2 10.9% 11.8% 6.3% 1.87× 8.47
Talleres (Córdoba) by 2 10.6% 11.8% 12.6% 0.94× 8.47
Talleres (Córdoba) by 3+ 5.8% 7.2% 5.0% 1.44× 13.81
Unión (Santa Fe) by 3+ 6.1% 7.2% 3.0% 2.43× 13.81
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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