Tenerife v Leganes — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Sunday 13 September 2026 · ESP-La Liga 2 · 2627

La Liga results-only Prediction generated 5 Sep 2026, 14:39

Tenerife

15:00

Leganes

AI prediction

ai-blend v1.0 daily Priced 6 Sep, 07:53 · 179h before kick-off

Tenerife win

49.7%

model 45.7%

Draw

28.3%

model 30.0%

Leganes win

22.0%

model 24.4%

502822

Calibrated: the model's number corrected by how often calls at that confidence have landed, out of sample (413 settled matches in the thinnest band), then normalised. The smaller figure is the raw model output.

Top 5 scorelines

1-0 17.3%
0-0 14.2%
1-1 12.6%
0-1 11.4%
2-0 9.9%

Goals

Over 2.5	30.3%	Under 2.5	69.7%
BTTS yes	36.3%	BTTS no	63.7%
Tenerife 1+	68.8%	Tenerife 2+	32.5%
Leganes 1+	53.3%	Leganes 2+	17.7%

Expected goals 1.17 – 0.76. Every market above is read off one scoreline distribution.

Footing

AI confidence

54/100

Data quality

65/100

Model agreement

98%

★ Best pick

1-2 goals

Multi goal · usually 42%

58.9% fair odds 1.70

strong signal · 1564 settled matches behind the band

★ Most likely to land

Under 1.5 in 1st half

Over/Under 1HT

83.3% fair odds 1.20

moderate signal · 384 settled matches behind the band

Positive factors

Tenerife carry the stronger rating, 1458 Elo against 1429.

Risk factors

No specific risk flags beyond the usual variance of a football match.

Why the model thinks this

The price

Tenerife have an estimated 49.7% win probability, against 28.3% for the draw and 22.0% for Leganes. Expected goals from the ensemble are 1.17 for Tenerife and 0.76 for Leganes.

Why Tenerife

Tenerife carry the stronger rating, 1458 Elo against 1429.

Why the draw is live

The draw sits at 28.3%. A combined 1.93 expected goals is a low-scoring profile, and low totals mean more level finishes. Draws run at 27% in this competition.

Why Leganes can win

Form is good: 2.00 points a match from the last five.

Key players

Leganes's leading contributors by expected goal involvements a match: Raba (0.39), Miguel De la Fuente (0.20), Diego García (0.19).

Availability

No lineup on record for Tenerife, so availability is unknown. 2 of Leganes's top three contributors did not start their last match.

The matchup, as far as the data reaches

Tenerife: 46% possession, 10.2 shots a match, 8.6 faced, 0.30 xG a match from set pieces. Leganes: 41% possession, 8.0 shots a match, 18.2 faced, 0.41 xG a match from set pieces.

Inputs last refreshed: matches 2026-09-06 07:42 · team_stats 2026-09-06 06:08 · availability 2026-09-06 07:53 · prediction 2026-09-05 18:39 ·

Tenerife are the model's most likely outcome at 49.7%. The likeliest scoreline is 1-0 at 17.3%. Confidence 54/100, data quality 65/100. These are probabilities, not certainties: the less likely outcome happens as often as its number says.

Written from the numbers the model saw, not by a language model; nothing here is a statistic the snapshot does not hold. How predictions work.

Was this pick made in advance?

A model whose name ends -oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight. Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.

What the chances say

Leganes are conceding fewer than expected — 2.8 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.

LDLDDDWLWW last 10 scored 13 from 13.3 xG conceded 13 from 15.8 xG

Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.

What the model said

Model	Home / Draw / Away	Expected goals	Likeliest score	O2.5	BTTS
ai-blend	463024	1.17–0.76	0%	0%	0%
dc-xg	443224	1.06–0.70	1-0 19%	26%	33%

A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest: it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.

Using this section

Every selection the model prices for this fixture, grouped by family — click a heading to open it. Calibrated is the number to read; lift shows how far it sits from what that selection normally does in this league. To compare selections across fixtures instead, use the Radar.

All markets

Every selection below comes from the same scoreline distribution, so they are mutually consistent rather than independently guessed. Calibrated is the model corrected by its own out-of-sample record; lift is how much more likely that is than the selection simply being true in this league anyway.

1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to win	43.8%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.32
Draw	31.9%	30.4%	26.6%	1.14×	3.29
Leganes to win	24.3%	24.4%	28.1%	0.87×	4.09

1X2 & GG/NG 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife & not both score	32.7%	29.7%	23.7%	1.26×	3.36
Leganes & not both score	17.9%	17.9%	13.5%	1.33×	5.58
Draw & not both score	16.9%	17.9%	9.1%	1.96×	5.58
Draw & both teams score	15.0%	17.9%	17.6%	1.02×	5.58
Tenerife & both teams score	11.1%	13.2%	21.9%	0.61×	7.55
Leganes & both teams score	6.5%	8.4%	14.7%	0.57×	11.95

1X2 & Over/Under 18

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife & under 3.5	38.3%	34.9%	32.3%	1.08×	2.86
Draw & under 2.5	29.3%	26.0%	20.3%	1.28×	3.84
Draw & under 3.5	29.3%	26.0%	20.3%	1.28×	3.84
Tenerife & under 2.5	28.2%	26.0%	19.3%	1.35×	3.84
Tenerife & over 1.5	25.2%	26.0%	32.5%	0.80×	3.84
Leganes & under 3.5	22.2%	21.6%	19.7%	1.10×	4.62
Tenerife & under 1.5	18.5%	18.0%	13.0%	1.38×	5.56
Draw & under 1.5	16.9%	18.0%	9.1%	1.97×	5.56
Leganes & under 2.5	16.7%	18.0%	11.6%	1.56×	5.56
Tenerife & over 2.5	15.6%	18.0%	26.2%	0.69×	5.56
Draw & over 1.5	15.0%	18.0%	17.6%	1.02×	5.56
Leganes & under 1.5	12.4%	12.9%	8.7%	1.47×	7.78
Leganes & over 1.5	11.9%	12.9%	19.5%	0.66×	7.78
Leganes & over 2.5	7.7%	7.9%	16.6%	0.47×	12.69
Tenerife & over 3.5	5.5%	7.9%	13.2%	0.59×	12.69
Draw & over 2.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.4%	0.74×	20.94
Draw & over 3.5	2.6%	4.8%	6.4%	0.74×	20.94
Leganes & over 3.5	2.2%	4.8%	8.5%	0.56×	20.94

1X2 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (1UP)	53.9%	52.8%	—	—	1.89
Leganes (1UP)	35.8%	33.8%	—	—	2.96

1X2 2UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (2UP)	43.8%	47.7%	—	—	2.10
Leganes (2UP)	24.3%	23.7%	—	—	4.22

2nd half 1X2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half drawn	45.4%	45.6%	—	—	2.20
Tenerife to win 2nd half	33.3%	34.5%	—	—	2.90
Leganes to win 2nd half	21.2%	22.9%	—	—	4.37

Asian handicap 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (+2.5)	94.6%	92.1%	92.3%	1.00×	1.09
Leganes (+1.5)	82.4%	82.4%	80.4%	1.02×	1.21
Tenerife (+0.5)	75.7%	78.5%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Leganes (+0.5)	56.2%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.75
Tenerife (-0.5)	43.8%	43.0%	45.4%	0.95×	2.33
Leganes (-0.5)	24.3%	21.5%	28.1%	0.77×	4.64
Tenerife (-1.5)	17.6%	17.6%	19.6%	0.90×	5.68
Tenerife (-2.5)	5.4%	7.9%	7.7%	1.03×	12.69

Away clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to concede	65.3%	72.5%	77.5%	0.94×	1.38
Leganes clean sheet	34.8%	27.5%	22.5%	1.22×	3.63

Away clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes clean sheet in 1st half	63.5%	64.9%	—	—	1.54
Leganes to concede in 1st half	36.5%	35.1%	—	—	2.85

Away corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 6.5 corners	89.1%	85.2%	—	—	1.17
Leganes under 5.5 corners	80.7%	81.4%	—	—	1.23
Leganes under 4.5 corners	68.2%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Leganes over 2.5 corners	67.3%	67.5%	—	—	1.48
Leganes under 3.5 corners	51.6%	53.1%	—	—	1.88
Leganes over 3.5 corners	48.4%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
Leganes under 2.5 corners	32.7%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Leganes over 4.5 corners	31.8%	32.5%	—	—	3.08
Leganes over 5.5 corners	19.3%	18.6%	—	—	5.39
Leganes over 6.5 corners	10.9%	14.8%	—	—	6.75

Away goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 3.5 goals	99.4%	97.6%	97.0%	1.01×	1.03
Leganes under 2.5 goals	96.6%	97.6%	89.2%	1.09×	1.03
Leganes under 1.5 goals	84.4%	81.5%	69.5%	1.17×	1.23
Leganes over 0.5 goals	50.4%	53.7%	67.3%	0.80×	1.86
Leganes under 0.5 goals	49.6%	46.3%	32.7%	1.42×	2.16
Leganes over 1.5 goals	15.7%	18.5%	30.5%	0.61×	5.40
Leganes over 2.5 goals	3.4%	2.4%	10.8%	0.23×	41.01
Leganes over 3.5 goals	0.6%	2.4%	3.0%	0.80×	41.17

Away goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes under 1.5 in 1st half	96.7%	95.7%	—	—	1.04
Leganes under 0.5 in 1st half	75.5%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Leganes over 0.5 in 1st half	24.5%	24.5%	—	—	4.08
Leganes over 1.5 in 1st half	3.3%	4.3%	—	—	23.52

Away no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (away no bet)	57.9%	57.5%	63.1%	0.91×	1.74
Draw (away no bet)	42.1%	42.5%	36.9%	1.15×	2.35

Away Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes even goals	62.3%	59.1%	54.7%	1.08×	1.69
Leganes odd goals	37.7%	40.9%	45.3%	0.90×	2.44

Both halves O1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both halves over 1.5	95.4%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Both halves over 1.5 goals	4.6%	4.5%	—	—	22.33

Both halves U1.5 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Both halves under 1.5 goals	60.7%	57.6%	—	—	1.74
Not both halves under 1.5	39.3%	42.4%	—	—	2.36

Consecutive goals 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to score 2+ in a row	35.0%	36.2%	—	—	2.76
Tenerife to score 2+ in a row	24.5%	19.4%	—	—	5.16
Leganes to score 2+ in a row	12.2%	12.0%	—	—	8.34
Either team to score 3+ in a row	9.1%	5.6%	—	—	17.80
Tenerife to score 3+ in a row	6.9%	5.6%	—	—	17.98
Leganes to score 3+ in a row	2.2%	2.6%	—	—	38.75

Corner handicap 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife corners (+3.5)	94.1%	89.6%	—	—	1.12
Tenerife corners (+2.5)	89.9%	84.5%	—	—	1.18
Tenerife corners (+1.5)	83.7%	79.7%	—	—	1.25
Leganes corners (+3.5)	67.6%	65.8%	—	—	1.52
Leganes corners (+2.5)	57.1%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Tenerife corners (-1.5)	54.2%	52.5%	—	—	1.91
Leganes corners (+1.5)	45.8%	47.5%	—	—	2.11
Tenerife corners (-2.5)	42.9%	42.9%	—	—	2.33
Tenerife corners (-3.5)	32.4%	34.2%	—	—	2.92
Leganes corners (-1.5)	16.3%	20.3%	—	—	4.93
Leganes corners (-2.5)	10.1%	15.5%	—	—	6.46
Leganes corners (-3.5)	5.9%	10.4%	—	—	9.59

Corner range 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-8 corners	43.7%	38.6%	—	—	2.59
9-11 corners	30.1%	33.2%	—	—	3.01
12+ corners	26.1%	31.2%	—	—	3.20

Corners O/U 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 12.5 corners	81.1%	80.8%	—	—	1.24
Under 11.5 corners	73.9%	72.7%	—	—	1.38
Over 7.5 corners	67.3%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Under 10.5 corners	65.0%	63.4%	—	—	1.58
Over 8.5 corners	56.3%	57.7%	—	—	1.73
Under 9.5 corners	54.8%	53.3%	—	—	1.88
Over 9.5 corners	45.2%	46.7%	—	—	2.14
Under 8.5 corners	43.7%	42.3%	—	—	2.37
Over 10.5 corners	35.0%	36.6%	—	—	2.73
Under 7.5 corners	32.7%	32.3%	—	—	3.09
Over 11.5 corners	26.1%	27.3%	—	—	3.66
Over 12.5 corners	18.9%	19.2%	—	—	5.20

Corners Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of corners	50.0%	50.2%	—	—	1.99
Even number of corners	50.0%	49.9%	—	—	2.01

Correct score 26

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-0	18.5%	13.8%	13.0%	1.06×	7.26
0-0	16.9%	13.8%	9.1%	1.50×	7.27
0-1	12.4%	11.5%	8.7%	1.31×	8.73
1-1	12.4%	11.5%	11.3%	1.02×	8.73
2-0	9.6%	7.4%	6.4%	1.16×	13.46
2-1	6.8%	7.4%	10.1%	0.74×	13.46
0-2	4.2%	1.7%	2.9%	0.58×	58.57
0-3	1.0%	1.7%	1.3%	1.35×	58.59
0-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.59
1-2	4.5%	1.7%	7.0%	0.24×	58.57
1-3	1.1%	1.7%	3.6%	0.48×	58.59
1-4	0.2%	1.7%	0.8%	2.03×	58.59
2-2	2.4%	1.7%	5.7%	0.30×	58.58
2-3	0.6%	1.7%	2.3%	0.74×	58.59
2-4	0.1%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.59
3-0	3.4%	1.7%	3.0%	0.56×	58.57
3-1	2.4%	1.7%	4.5%	0.38×	58.58
3-2	0.8%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.59
3-3	0.2%	1.7%	0.7%	2.32×	58.59
3-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.12×	58.59
4-0	0.9%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.59
4-1	0.6%	1.7%	1.9%	0.90×	58.59
4-2	0.2%	1.7%	1.2%	1.48×	58.59
4-3	0.1%	1.7%	0.3%	5.41×	58.59
4-4	0.0%	1.7%	0.2%	8.12×	58.59
Any other score	0.5%	1.7%	2.7%	0.62×	58.59

DNB half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife leading at HT (DNB)	63.9%	66.5%	—	—	1.50
Leganes leading at HT (DNB)	36.1%	33.5%	—	—	2.99

Double chance 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw (1X)	75.7%	75.6%	71.9%	1.05×	1.32
Tenerife or Leganes (12)	68.1%	69.6%	73.4%	0.95×	1.44
Leganes or draw (X2)	56.2%	57.0%	54.6%	1.04×	1.76

Double chance 1HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw at HT	83.4%	84.2%	—	—	1.19
Leganes or draw at HT	70.7%	74.6%	—	—	1.34
Tenerife or Leganes at HT	45.9%	52.2%	—	—	1.92

Double chance 1UP 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw (1UP)	75.7%	83.8%	—	—	1.19
Leganes or draw (1UP)	56.2%	62.6%	—	—	1.60

Double chance 2HT 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife or draw in 2nd half	78.8%	77.1%	—	—	1.30
Leganes or draw in 2nd half	66.7%	65.5%	—	—	1.53
Tenerife or Leganes in 2nd half	54.6%	54.4%	—	—	1.84

Draw either half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half drawn	75.3%	75.9%	—	—	1.32
Neither half drawn	24.7%	24.1%	—	—	4.15

Draw no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (DNB)	64.3%	62.9%	61.8%	1.02×	1.59
Leganes (DNB)	35.7%	37.1%	38.2%	0.97×	2.70

First goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score first	49.9%	45.7%	—	—	2.19
Leganes to score first	33.2%	27.1%	—	—	3.70
No goal scored	16.9%	17.6%	—	—	5.67

GG/NG 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score	67.4%	58.2%	46.1%	1.26×	1.72
Both teams to score	32.6%	41.8%	53.9%	0.78×	2.39

GG/NG & Over/Under 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both score & under 2.5	61.7%	50.0%	39.9%	1.26×	2.00
Both score & over 2.5	20.1%	27.7%	42.8%	0.65×	3.61
Both score & under 2.5	12.4%	12.3%	11.3%	1.10×	8.11
Not both score & over 2.5	5.7%	8.4%	6.3%	1.32×	11.97

GG/NG 2+ 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both teams to score 2+	95.5%	91.7%	85.7%	1.07×	1.09
Both teams to score 2+	4.5%	8.3%	14.3%	0.58×	12.05

GG/NG 2nd half 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score in 2nd half	84.6%	75.5%	—	—	1.33
Both teams to score in 2nd half	15.4%	24.5%	—	—	4.08

GG/NG by half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Neither half both score	77.1%	75.2%	—	—	1.33
Both score 2nd half only	14.0%	10.5%	—	—	9.51
Both score 1st half only	7.5%	6.7%	—	—	14.92
Both score in both halves	1.4%	4.8%	—	—	20.70

GG/NG half time 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Not both to score by HT	91.1%	91.5%	—	—	1.09
Both teams to score by HT	8.9%	8.5%	—	—	11.82

Goal in both halves 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
A half without a goal	66.8%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
A goal in each half	33.2%	33.3%	—	—	3.00

Goal range 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
0-1 goals	47.9%	47.4%	30.7%	1.55×	2.11
2-3 goals	41.9%	42.1%	41.4%	1.02×	2.37
4-6 goals	10.0%	7.7%	26.5%	0.29×	13.07
7+ goals	0.2%	1.8%	1.6%	1.14×	55.42

Goals away 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to score exactly 0	49.6%	43.0%	32.7%	1.32×	2.32
Leganes to score exactly 1	34.8%	33.9%	36.9%	0.92×	2.95
Leganes to score exactly 2	12.2%	12.8%	19.8%	0.65×	7.80
Leganes to score 3+	3.4%	4.5%	10.8%	0.42×	22.24

Goals home 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score exactly 1	36.7%	35.6%	35.6%	1.00×	2.81
Tenerife to score exactly 0	34.8%	32.7%	22.5%	1.45×	3.06
Tenerife to score exactly 2	19.4%	18.9%	25.0%	0.75×	5.30
Tenerife to score 3+	9.1%	10.3%	17.0%	0.61×	9.68

Half time 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw at HT	54.1%	47.8%	—	—	2.09
Tenerife leading at HT	29.3%	25.4%	—	—	3.93
Leganes leading at HT	16.6%	15.8%	—	—	6.33

Handicap 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife -1: 2	56.2%	56.7%	—	—	1.77
Tenerife -1: X	26.2%	26.5%	—	—	3.77
Tenerife -1: 1	17.6%	17.5%	—	—	5.71

Handicap 0:1 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:1)	56.2%	55.8%	54.6%	1.02×	1.79
Draw (0:1)	26.2%	27.0%	26.0%	1.04×	3.70
Tenerife (0:1)	17.6%	17.8%	19.6%	0.91×	5.62

Handicap 0:2 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:2)	82.4%	82.8%	80.4%	1.03×	1.21
Draw (0:2)	12.2%	11.0%	12.0%	0.92×	9.09
Tenerife (0:2)	5.4%	7.7%	7.7%	1.00×	13.00

Handicap 0:3 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:3)	94.6%	92.7%	92.3%	1.00×	1.08
Draw (0:3)	4.1%	2.4%	5.4%	0.44×	41.96
Tenerife (0:3)	1.3%	2.4%	2.4%	0.98×	42.08

Handicap 0:4 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes (0:4)	98.7%	98.1%	97.6%	1.01×	1.02
Draw (0:4)	1.0%	1.2%	2.1%	0.57×	83.35
Tenerife (0:4)	0.3%	1.2%	0.4%	2.85×	83.45

Handicap 1:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (1:0)	75.7%	78.5%	71.9%	1.09×	1.28
Draw (1:0)	17.5%	17.0%	18.0%	0.95×	5.87
Leganes (1:0)	6.8%	6.9%	10.2%	0.68×	14.49

Handicap 2:0 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife (2:0)	93.2%	94.0%	89.8%	1.05×	1.06
Draw (2:0)	5.4%	6.4%	7.0%	0.92×	15.51
Leganes (2:0)	1.4%	2.3%	3.3%	0.69×	44.32

Highest scoring half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
2nd half highest scoring	41.8%	46.0%	—	—	2.17
Halves equal	32.3%	30.3%	—	—	3.31
1st half highest scoring	25.9%	26.5%	—	—	3.77

Home clean sheet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to concede	50.4%	53.1%	67.3%	0.79×	1.88
Tenerife clean sheet	49.6%	46.9%	32.7%	1.43×	2.13

Home clean sheet 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife clean sheet in 1st half	75.5%	76.8%	—	—	1.30
Tenerife to concede in 1st half	24.5%	23.2%	—	—	4.31

Home corners O/U 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife over 2.5 corners	87.5%	86.3%	—	—	1.16
Tenerife over 3.5 corners	75.9%	76.6%	—	—	1.31
Tenerife under 6.5 corners	65.1%	66.7%	—	—	1.50
Tenerife over 4.5 corners	62.0%	62.3%	—	—	1.61
Tenerife under 5.5 corners	52.2%	52.8%	—	—	1.90
Tenerife over 5.5 corners	47.8%	47.2%	—	—	2.12
Tenerife under 4.5 corners	38.0%	37.7%	—	—	2.65
Tenerife over 6.5 corners	34.9%	33.3%	—	—	3.00
Tenerife under 3.5 corners	24.1%	23.4%	—	—	4.26
Tenerife under 2.5 corners	12.5%	13.7%	—	—	7.28

Home goals O/U 8

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 3.5 goals	97.7%	96.4%	93.7%	1.03×	1.04
Tenerife under 2.5 goals	90.9%	92.2%	83.0%	1.11×	1.08
Tenerife under 1.5 goals	71.5%	74.2%	58.0%	1.28×	1.35
Tenerife over 0.5 goals	65.3%	67.9%	77.5%	0.88×	1.47
Tenerife under 0.5 goals	34.8%	32.1%	22.5%	1.43×	3.12
Tenerife over 1.5 goals	28.5%	25.8%	42.0%	0.61×	3.88
Tenerife over 2.5 goals	9.1%	7.8%	17.0%	0.46×	12.87
Tenerife over 3.5 goals	2.3%	3.6%	6.3%	0.58×	27.46

Home goals O/U 1HT 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife under 1.5 in 1st half	92.3%	95.5%	—	—	1.05
Tenerife under 0.5 in 1st half	63.5%	64.7%	—	—	1.55
Tenerife over 0.5 in 1st half	36.5%	35.3%	—	—	2.83
Tenerife over 1.5 in 1st half	7.7%	4.5%	—	—	22.20

Home no bet 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Draw (home no bet)	56.7%	56.7%	48.7%	1.16×	1.77
Leganes (home no bet)	43.3%	43.3%	51.3%	0.84×	2.31

Home Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife even goals	56.0%	55.4%	51.8%	1.07×	1.80
Tenerife odd goals	44.0%	44.6%	48.2%	0.93×	2.25

HT correct score 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
HT 0-0	47.9%	46.9%	—	—	2.13
HT 1-0	21.8%	24.2%	—	—	4.13
HT 0-1	13.5%	11.1%	—	—	9.04
HT 1-1	6.1%	7.1%	—	—	14.12
HT 2-0	5.0%	2.2%	—	—	44.55
HT 0-2	1.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.79
HT 2-1	1.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
Any other HT score	1.4%	2.2%	—	—	44.83
HT 1-2	0.9%	2.2%	—	—	44.87
HT 2-2	0.2%	2.2%	—	—	44.93

HT/FT 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife at HT / Tenerife at FT	24.3%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
Draw at HT / Draw at FT	24.2%	22.2%	—	—	4.51
Draw at HT / Tenerife at FT	18.2%	16.8%	—	—	5.95
Draw at HT / Leganes at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Leganes at HT / Leganes at FT	11.7%	12.7%	—	—	7.90
Tenerife at HT / Draw at FT	4.1%	3.4%	—	—	29.12
Leganes at HT / Draw at FT	3.6%	3.4%	—	—	29.14
Leganes at HT / Tenerife at FT	1.3%	3.4%	—	—	29.23
Tenerife at HT / Leganes at FT	1.0%	3.4%	—	—	29.25

Last goal 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife to score last	49.9%	47.0%	—	—	2.13
Leganes to score last	33.2%	32.9%	—	—	3.04
No goal scored	16.9%	12.3%	—	—	8.10

Lead at any time 9

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Either team to lead by 1 at any time	83.1%	87.3%	—	—	1.15
Tenerife to lead by 1 at any time	53.9%	50.6%	—	—	1.98
Leganes to lead by 1 at any time	35.8%	34.7%	—	—	2.88
Either team to lead by 2 at any time	30.0%	25.3%	—	—	3.96
Tenerife to lead by 2 at any time	20.8%	19.6%	—	—	5.11
Leganes to lead by 2 at any time	9.2%	6.6%	—	—	15.24
Either team to lead by 3 at any time	8.0%	6.5%	—	—	15.30
Tenerife to lead by 3 at any time	6.2%	6.5%	—	—	15.39
Leganes to lead by 3 at any time	1.8%	1.6%	—	—	64.12

Most corners 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife most corners	65.4%	64.4%	—	—	1.55
Leganes most corners	24.5%	26.0%	—	—	3.85
Corners level	10.1%	10.4%	—	—	9.61

Multi goal 15

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1-5 goals	82.2%	83.5%	85.8%	0.97×	1.20
1-4 goals	79.8%	78.6%	78.1%	1.01×	1.27
1-3 goals	72.9%	72.4%	63.0%	1.15×	1.38
1-2 goals	57.3%	59.2%	42.0%	1.41×	1.69
2-6 goals	51.9%	53.1%	67.8%	0.78×	1.88
2-5 goals	51.2%	53.1%	64.2%	0.83×	1.88
2-4 goals	48.8%	48.7%	56.6%	0.86×	2.06
2-3 goals	41.9%	43.6%	41.4%	1.05×	2.29
3-6 goals	25.6%	30.2%	47.5%	0.63×	3.31
3-5 goals	24.9%	24.5%	44.0%	0.56×	4.09
3-4 goals	22.5%	24.4%	36.3%	0.67×	4.09
4-6 goals	10.0%	8.8%	26.5%	0.33×	11.42
4-5 goals	9.3%	8.8%	22.9%	0.38×	11.43
5-6 goals	3.1%	2.5%	11.4%	0.22×	39.44
7+ goals	0.2%	2.5%	1.6%	1.60×	39.57

Never down 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife never behind	47.3%	57.1%	—	—	1.75
Leganes never behind	29.2%	30.1%	—	—	3.32

Odd/Even 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Odd number of goals	49.2%	50.8%	51.5%	0.99×	1.97
Even number of goals	50.8%	49.2%	48.5%	1.02×	2.03

Odd/Even 1HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 1st half	61.4%	58.1%	—	—	1.72
Odd goals in 1st half	38.6%	41.9%	—	—	2.39

Odd/Even 2HT 2

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Even goals in 2nd half	56.2%	59.8%	—	—	1.67
Odd goals in 2nd half	43.8%	40.2%	—	—	2.49

Over/Under 12

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 5.5 goals	99.1%	95.5%	94.8%	1.01×	1.05
Under 4.5 goals	96.6%	95.5%	87.2%	1.10×	1.05
Under 3.5 goals	89.8%	87.7%	72.0%	1.22×	1.14
Over 0.5 goals	83.1%	82.4%	90.9%	0.91×	1.21
Under 2.5 goals	74.2%	72.5%	51.0%	1.42×	1.38
Over 1.5 goals	52.1%	52.4%	69.3%	0.76×	1.91
Under 1.5 goals	47.9%	47.6%	30.7%	1.55×	2.10
Over 2.5 goals	25.8%	27.5%	49.0%	0.56×	3.64
Under 0.5 goals	16.9%	17.6%	9.1%	1.93×	5.67
Over 3.5 goals	10.2%	12.3%	28.0%	0.44×	8.12
Over 4.5 goals	3.4%	4.5%	12.8%	0.35×	22.20
Over 5.5 goals	0.9%	4.5%	5.2%	0.87×	22.24

Over/Under (whole line) 10

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 6 (void on exactly 6)	99.8%	97.3%	98.4%	0.99×	1.03
Under 5 (void on exactly 5)	99.0%	97.3%	94.4%	1.03×	1.03
Under 4 (void on exactly 4)	96.4%	97.2%	84.9%	1.15×	1.03
Under 3 (void on exactly 3)	87.9%	86.7%	64.6%	1.34×	1.15
Under 2 (void on exactly 2)	64.9%	62.2%	38.5%	1.61×	1.61
Over 2 (void on exactly 2)	35.1%	37.8%	61.5%	0.62×	2.64
Over 3 (void on exactly 3)	12.1%	13.3%	35.4%	0.37×	7.54
Over 4 (void on exactly 4)	3.6%	2.8%	15.1%	0.18×	36.34
Over 5 (void on exactly 5)	1.0%	2.7%	5.6%	0.49×	36.42
Over 6 (void on exactly 6)	0.2%	2.7%	1.6%	1.68×	36.44

Over/Under 1HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 1st half	96.1%	96.7%	—	—	1.03
Under 1.5 in 1st half	83.2%	86.5%	—	—	1.16
Over 0.5 in 1st half	52.1%	56.4%	—	—	1.77
Under 0.5 in 1st half	47.9%	43.6%	—	—	2.29
Over 1.5 in 1st half	16.8%	13.5%	—	—	7.39
Over 2.5 in 1st half	3.9%	3.3%	—	—	30.46

Over/Under 2HT 6

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Under 2.5 in 2nd half	91.5%	89.3%	—	—	1.12
Under 1.5 in 2nd half	72.8%	77.9%	—	—	1.28
Over 0.5 in 2nd half	64.2%	62.0%	—	—	1.61
Under 0.5 in 2nd half	35.8%	38.0%	—	—	2.63
Over 1.5 in 2nd half	27.2%	22.1%	—	—	4.53
Over 2.5 in 2nd half	8.5%	10.7%	—	—	9.34

Score both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to score in both halves	91.6%	90.1%	—	—	1.11
Tenerife not to score in both halves	83.5%	84.3%	—	—	1.19
Tenerife to score in both halves	16.5%	15.7%	—	—	6.38
Leganes to score in both halves	8.4%	9.9%	—	—	10.08

Teams to score 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Only Tenerife scores	32.7%	33.4%	23.7%	1.41×	3.00
Both teams score	32.6%	33.4%	53.9%	0.62×	3.00
Only Leganes scores	17.9%	16.1%	13.5%	1.20×	6.20
Neither team scores	16.9%	16.1%	9.1%	1.76×	6.21

Total goals 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Exactly 1 goals	31.0%	25.2%	21.7%	1.16×	3.97
Exactly 2 goals	26.3%	25.0%	20.4%	1.22×	4.01
Exactly 0 goals	16.9%	17.5%	9.1%	1.91×	5.73
Exactly 3 goals	15.6%	17.4%	21.1%	0.83×	5.73
Exactly 4 goals	6.9%	7.6%	15.2%	0.50×	13.14
Exactly 5 goals	2.4%	4.4%	7.8%	0.57×	22.64
6 or more goals	0.9%	4.4%	5.2%	0.86×	22.66

Total goals 2nd half 3

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
1 goal in 2nd half	37.0%	39.9%	—	—	2.51
No goals in 2nd half	35.8%	39.7%	—	—	2.52
2+ goals in 2nd half	27.2%	29.6%	—	—	3.38

Win both halves 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win both halves	96.5%	97.2%	—	—	1.03
Tenerife not to win both halves	90.3%	93.9%	—	—	1.07
Tenerife to win both halves	9.7%	6.1%	—	—	16.41
Leganes to win both halves	3.5%	2.8%	—	—	35.27

Win either half 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes to win neither half	65.7%	67.7%	—	—	1.48
Tenerife to win either half	52.9%	54.8%	—	—	1.83
Tenerife to win neither half	47.1%	45.2%	—	—	2.21
Leganes to win either half	34.3%	32.3%	—	—	3.10

Win to nil 4

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Leganes not to win to nil	82.1%	83.0%	86.5%	0.96×	1.21
Tenerife not to win to nil	67.3%	69.6%	76.3%	0.91×	1.44
Tenerife to win to nil	32.7%	30.4%	23.7%	1.28×	3.29
Leganes to win to nil	17.9%	17.0%	13.5%	1.26×	5.87

Winning margin 7

Selection	Model	Calibrated	Base	Lift	Fair odds
Tenerife by 1	26.2%	27.8%	26.0%	1.07×	3.59
Draw	31.9%	27.6%	26.6%	1.04×	3.62
Leganes by 1	17.5%	16.9%	18.0%	0.94×	5.90
Tenerife by 2	12.2%	11.8%	12.0%	0.99×	8.46
Leganes by 2	5.4%	7.2%	7.0%	1.03×	13.81
Tenerife by 3+	5.4%	7.2%	7.7%	0.94×	13.81
Leganes by 3+	1.4%	2.7%	3.3%	0.83×	37.02