Torino v Cremonese — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 13 December 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
18 – 10
On target
6 – 3
Shots in box
15 – 7
xG per shot
0.11 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.70 – 0.13
Goals − xG
-0.95 – -0.70
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Torino win
33.9%
Draw
33.4%
Cremonese win
32.7%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Torino are conceding fewer than expected — 2.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDDLWLDLLW last 10
scored 13
from 13.3 xG
conceded 15
from 17.5 xG
Cremonese are conceding sharply more than the chances against them merit — 5.2 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LWLLDLLWWL last 10
scored 10
from 8.8 xG
conceded 17
from 11.8 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.11–1.09 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.28 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 57% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Torino 1.95 xGCremonese 0.70 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Torino attacking right
Cremonese attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12' |
 Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.05 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 13' |
Cremonese |
Federico Ceccherini | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 18' |
 Torino |
Che Adams | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 22' |
Torino |
Ardian Ismajli | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 22' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 26' |
Torino |
Nikola Vlasic | 0.40 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Duván Zapata |
| 28' |
Cremonese |
Federico Bonazzoli | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Giuseppe Pezzella |
| 36' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentino Lazaro |
| 38' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Gvidas Gineitis |
| 41' |
Cremonese |
Federico Baschirotto | 0.02 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 49' |
Torino |
Ardian Ismajli | 0.58 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Che Adams |
| 56' |
Cremonese |
Federico Ceccherini | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Jari Vandeputte |
| 57' |
Torino |
Gvidas Gineitis | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Che Adams |
| 61' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.12 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 62' |
Torino |
Guillermo Maripán | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 66' |
Cremonese |
Antonio Sanabria | 0.03 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Alessio Zerbin |
| 68' |
Torino |
Ardian Ismajli | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 68' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 73' |
Torino |
Saúl Coco | 0.10 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Kristjan Asllani |
| 75' |
Cremonese |
Federico Ceccherini | 0.01 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 77' |
Torino |
Marcus Pedersen | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Nikola Vlasic |
| 79' |
Cremonese |
Faris Moumbagna | 0.38 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jamie Vardy |
| 81' |
Torino |
Che Adams | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Cesare Casadei |
| 86' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cyril Ngonge |
| 86' |
Torino |
Giovanni Simeone | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Guillermo Maripán |
| 90' |
Torino |
Kristjan Asllani | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 94' |
Cremonese |
Franco Vázquez | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Faris Moumbagna |
| 97' |
Cremonese |
Filippo Terracciano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
Players
Torino
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ardian Ismajli DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.19 |
| Nikola Vlasic AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 0.73 |
| Guillermo Maripán DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.73 |
| Saúl Coco DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.00 | 0.29 |
| Marcus Pedersen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.28 |
| Kristjan Asllani MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.04 | 0.25 | 0.35 |
| Valentino Lazaro ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.78 |
| Alberto Paleari GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Che Adams FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.61 | 0.54 |
| Gvidas Gineitis MC | 66 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.13 | 0.61 |
| Duván Zapata FW | 66 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.40 | 0.57 |
| Giovanni Simeone Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.21 |
| Cesare Casadei Sub | 24 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.11 |
| Cyril Ngonge Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Emirhan Ilkhan Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristiano Biraghi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Cremonese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Federico Ceccherini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Filippo Terracciano DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.12 |
| Federico Baschirotto DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Emil Audero GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jamie Vardy FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.38 | 0.40 |
| Martín Payero MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Federico Bonazzoli FW | 79 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jari Vandeputte MC | 79 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.00 | 0.09 | 0.13 |
| Tommaso Barbieri DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Giuseppe Pezzella DML | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Warren Bondo MC | 53 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Alessio Zerbin Sub | 37 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.38 |
| Antonio Sanabria Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Romano Floriani Sub | 25 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Faris Moumbagna Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.38 | 0.02 | 0.40 |
| Franco Vázquez Sub | 11 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.40 |