Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 17 January 2026 · ENG-Premier League · 2526
Premier League
xG Prediction generated
Shots
21 – 17
On target
6 – 4
Shots in box
15 – 16
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.17
Set-piece xG
0.25 – 1.93
Goals − xG
-0.81 – -0.82
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Tottenham Hotspur win
59.1%
Draw
24.0%
West Ham United win
16.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Tottenham Hotspur are finishing sharply below their chances — 5.2 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings.
LDWWDLWLLD last 10
scored 8
from 13.2 xG
conceded 12
from 13.4 xG
West Ham United are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.3 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDLWDWLLLW last 10
scored 12
from 13.5 xG
conceded 11
from 15.3 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.99–1.00 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.79–1.00 | 1-1 11% | 53% | 53% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Tottenham Hotspur 1.81 xGWest Ham United 2.82 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Tottenham Hotspur attacking right
West Ham United attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3' |
 Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 3' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 13' |
 West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 14' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mateus Fernandes |
| 21' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.33 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 23' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.46 | Open Play | — | Saved Shot | — |
| 24' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.13 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 24' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.36 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | — |
| 27' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Archie Gray |
| 28' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pablo |
| 34' |
West Ham United |
Jarrod Bowen | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 35' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
West Ham United |
Tomas Soucek | 0.43 | From Corner | — | Saved Shot | Crysencio Summerville |
| 40' |
West Ham United |
Konstantinos Mavropanos | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Saved Shot | Tomas Soucek |
| 43' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 47' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mateus Fernandes |
| 48' |
West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.12 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 49' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Djed Spence | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 50' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Mathys Tel | 0.06 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Randal Kolo Muani |
| 55' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Pedro Porro | 0.03 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Mathys Tel |
| 58' |
West Ham United |
Pablo | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 60' |
West Ham United |
Crysencio Summerville | 0.11 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Valentín Castellanos |
| 61' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wilson Odobert |
| 63' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.33 | Open Play | — | Goal | Pedro Porro |
| 66' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Yves Bissouma | 0.07 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 67' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.10 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 70' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Wilson Odobert | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Xavi Simons |
| 70' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Conor Gallagher |
| 72' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.01 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 81' |
West Ham United |
Valentín Castellanos | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Oliver Scarles |
| 82' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Conor Gallagher | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Cristian Romero |
| 86' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.03 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 88' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Xavi Simons | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pedro Porro |
| 91' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Aaron Wan-Bissaka |
| 92' |
West Ham United |
Callum Wilson | 0.95 | From Corner | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 96' |
Tottenham Hotspur |
Cristian Romero | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Pedro Porro |
Players
West Ham United
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Valentín Castellanos FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.58 | 0.11 | 0.41 |
| Tomas Soucek MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.43 | 0.10 | 0.28 |
| Crysencio Summerville ML | 90 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 0.37 | 0.65 | 0.45 |
| Konstantinos Mavropanos DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jarrod Bowen MR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Jean-Clair Todibo DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.38 |
| Alphonse Areola GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.27 |
| Aaron Wan-Bissaka DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.25 |
| Mateus Fernandes MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.35 |
| Oliver Scarles DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.20 |
| Pablo AMC | 87 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.07 | 0.45 |
| Guido Rodríguez Sub | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Callum Wilson Sub | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1.01 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Max Kilman Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Tottenham Hotspur
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wilson Odobert AMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.54 | 0.14 | 0.97 |
| Cristian Romero DC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.36 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Xavi Simons AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 0.21 |
| Conor Gallagher DMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.03 | 0.22 |
| Pedro Porro DR | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0.03 | 0.49 | 0.46 |
| Guglielmo Vicario GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Randal Kolo Muani FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.11 | 0.08 |
| Micky van de Ven DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Djed Spence Sub | 72 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.36 | 0.00 | 0.83 |
| Mathys Tel AML | 70 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.05 | 0.16 |
| Archie Gray DMC | 54 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.11 |
| Yves Bissouma Sub | 36 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Dominic Solanke Sub | 20 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ben Davies DL | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lucas Bergvall Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |