Toulouse v Brest — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Sunday 30 March 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
17 – 10
On target
4 – 5
Shots in box
15 – 8
xG per shot
0.14 – 0.24
Set-piece xG
1.60 – 0.10
Goals − xG
-0.45 – +1.58
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
37.5%
Draw
32.0%
Brest win
30.5%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Brest are finishing below their chances — 3.0 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 3.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LDDLLLDDDW last 10
scored 15
from 18.0 xG
conceded 21
from 17.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.33–1.18 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 2.45 xGBrest 2.42 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Brest attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6' |
 Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 9' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mark McKenzie |
| 9' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 21' |
 Brest |
Justin Bourgault | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | — |
| 24' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.08 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 25' |
Brest |
Pereira Lage | 0.24 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Kamory Doumbia |
| 32' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Mama Baldé |
| 32' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.01 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 34' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Joshua King |
| 34' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 39' |
Brest |
Julien Le Cardinal | 0.04 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Kenny Lala |
| 40' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 43' |
Toulouse |
Rafik Messali | 0.04 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 48' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.52 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 57' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.43 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.59 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 61' |
Brest |
Kamory Doumbia | 0.61 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 61' |
Brest |
Ludovic Ajorque | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Mahdi Camara |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Goal | Yann Gboho |
| 69' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.06 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 77' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.61 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Goal | Charlie Cresswell |
| 80' |
Brest |
Luc Zogbe | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 82' |
Brest |
Niakhate Ndiaye | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Romain Del Castillo |
| 83' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Miha Zajc |
| 87' |
Toulouse |
Mark McKenzie | 0.13 | Set Piece | — | Blocked Shot | Vincent Sierro |
| 89' |
Brest |
Mahdi Camara | 0.56 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Pereira Lage |
| 92' |
Toulouse |
Djibril Sidibe | 0.06 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
Players
Brest
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mahdi Camara MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.56 | 0.08 | 0.63 |
| Pereira Lage FWL | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.24 | 0.56 | 0.80 |
| Ludovic Ajorque FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.23 | 0.00 | 0.23 |
| Niakhate Ndiaye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.39 |
| Julien Le Cardinal DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Marco Bizot GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.71 |
| Kenny Lala DR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.56 |
| Kamory Doumbia MC | 77 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1.20 | 0.24 | 1.52 |
| Mama Baldé FWR | 67 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.15 |
| Justin Bourgault DL | 49 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Luc Zogbe Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.06 |
| Romain Del Castillo Sub | 23 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.56 |
| Edimilson Fernandes Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joshua King FW | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.10 | 0.16 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.65 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0.51 | 0.10 | 0.52 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0.17 | 0.61 | 0.13 |
| Aron Dønnum AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.05 | 0.17 |
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.17 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 0.07 |
| Gabriel Suazo DML | 74 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.17 |
| Rafik Messali DMR | 49 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Shavy Babicka Sub | 41 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Noah Edjouma Sub | 16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Miha Zajc Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 |
| Jaydee Canvot Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |