Toulouse v Lens — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 10 May 2025 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2425
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
9 – 12
On target
6 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 8
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.08 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-0.12 – +0.23
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
43.4%
Draw
27.8%
Lens win
28.9%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Lens are finishing sharply below their chances — 4.4 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.1 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
WLWDDWLWWL last 10
scored 23
from 27.4 xG
conceded 16
from 13.9 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.35–1.05 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.12 xGLens 0.77 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Lens attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2' |
 Lens |
Tom Pouilly | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Adrien Thomasson |
| 9' |
 Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.08 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 11' |
Lens |
Tom Pouilly | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 16' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 20' |
Toulouse |
Frank Magri | 0.50 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 35' |
Lens |
Andy Diouf | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 35' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.11 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 35' |
Lens |
Goduine Koyalipou | 0.10 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 46' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Mark McKenzie |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.09 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Jaydee Canvot | 0.08 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 50' |
Lens |
Andy Diouf | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Deiver Machado |
| 50' |
Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.06 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Juma Bah |
| 60' |
Lens |
Neil El Aynaoui | 0.23 | Open Play | — | Goal | Adrien Thomasson |
| 70' |
Lens |
Nampalys Mendy | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Toulouse |
Joshua King | 0.07 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Gabriel Suazo |
| 77' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Joshua King |
| 81' |
Toulouse |
Zakaria Aboukhlal | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 82' |
Toulouse |
Vincent Sierro | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 89' |
Lens |
Anass Zaroury | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Neil El Aynaoui |
| 94' |
Lens |
Martín Satriano | 0.01 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Anass Zaroury |
Players
Lens
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.29 | 0.13 | 0.48 |
| Andy Diouf ML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.46 |
| Nampalys Mendy MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Jonathan Gradit DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Facundo Medina DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Mat Ryan GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Juma Bah DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.30 |
| Goduine Koyalipou FW | 82 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.25 | 0.00 | 0.25 |
| Tom Pouilly DR | 82 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Adrien Thomasson MR | 77 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.28 | 0.39 |
| Deiver Machado DL | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 0.32 |
| Anass Zaroury Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 |
| Martín Satriano Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Wesley Said Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Florian Sotoca Sub | 8 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Sierro MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.41 |
| Joshua King AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.15 | 0.09 | 0.24 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.12 | 0.21 |
| Jaydee Canvot DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.02 | 0.09 | 0.11 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 0.24 |
| Frank Magri FW | 71 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.59 |
| Warren Kamanzi DML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Zakaria Aboukhlal Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Gabriel Suazo Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.07 |