Toulouse v Lorient — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 March 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
12 – 7
On target
4 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.13 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.10 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-0.56 – -0.48
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
47.7%
Draw
25.8%
Lorient win
26.4%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Lorient are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 4.2 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DLWLDWLDLW last 10
scored 13
from 15.0 xG
conceded 12
from 16.2 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.44–0.99 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✓ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.54–1.06 | 1-1 12% | 48% | 51% | Home ✓ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 1.56 xGLorient 0.48 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Lorient attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0' |
 Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.32 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 10' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.10 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 12' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.01 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Aron Dønnum |
| 46' |
 Lorient |
Darline Yongwa | 0.02 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Jean-Victor Makengo |
| 47' |
Lorient |
Noah Cadiou | 0.06 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 48' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 48' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.03 | Set Piece | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.03 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 53' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Jacen Russell-Rowe |
| 59' |
Lorient |
Darline Yongwa | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dermane Karim |
| 61' |
Lorient |
Ahmadou Bamba Dieng | 0.26 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Noah Cadiou |
| 71' |
Toulouse |
Aron Dønnum | 0.07 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 74' |
Lorient |
Arthur Avom | 0.01 | From Corner | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 79' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 80' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.23 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 90' |
Lorient |
Sambou Soumano | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Panos Katseris |
| 93' |
Lorient |
Arsène Kouassi | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Arthur Avom |
| 96' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.15 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 96' |
Toulouse |
Mário Sauer | 0.53 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Emersonn |
Players
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.57 |
| Aron Dønnum DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.15 |
| Yann Gboho FWL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.03 | 0.19 | 0.32 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0.00 | 0.26 | 0.34 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mark McKenzie DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.10 |
| Seny Koumbassa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.01 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.49 |
| Djibril Sidibe DML | 88 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.14 |
| Santiago Hidalgo FWR | 69 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 |
| Emersonn Sub | 22 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.43 | 0.53 | 0.43 |
| Warren Kamanzi Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.53 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
Lorient
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darline Yongwa DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Noah Cadiou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.26 | 0.41 |
| Arsène Kouassi DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.03 |
| Arthur Avom MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0.01 | 0.10 | 0.14 |
| Jean-Victor Makengo AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Nathaniel Adjei DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Abdoulaye Faye DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.30 |
| Yvon Mvogo GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Théo Le Bris DMR | 83 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.08 |
| Ahmadou Bamba Dieng FW | 77 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.26 |
| Dermane Karim AMC | 77 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Sambou Soumano Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Aiyegun Tosin Sub | 13 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Panos Katseris Sub | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 |