Toulouse v Paris FC — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Saturday 21 February 2026 · FRA-Ligue 1 · 2526
Ligue 1
xG Prediction generated
Shots
23 – 5
On target
10 – 2
Shots in box
13 – 2
xG per shot
0.12 – 0.14
Set-piece xG
1.30 – 0.02
Goals − xG
-1.71 – +0.31
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Toulouse win
57.7%
Draw
21.1%
Paris FC win
21.2%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Toulouse are finishing below their chances — 3.6 goals fewer than expected across 10 matches, despite creating the openings. They are also conceding more than the chances against them merit — 2.3 goals above expected, which tends to correct.
LLLDWWDLDL last 10
scored 11
from 14.6 xG
conceded 19
from 16.7 xG
Paris FC are conceding fewer than expected — 3.0 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWLWLWDW last 10
scored 21
from 21.2 xG
conceded 9
from 12.0 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 1.68–0.89 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Home ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.70–0.90 | 1-0 13% | 48% | 48% | Home ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Toulouse 2.71 xGParis FC 0.69 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Toulouse attacking right
Paris FC attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5' |
 Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.41 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Emersonn |
| 8' |
Toulouse |
Emersonn | 0.08 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 14' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.02 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 14' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.04 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Warren Kamanzi |
| 29' |
 Paris FC |
Ilan Kebbal | 0.03 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Marshall Munetsi |
| 33' |
Toulouse |
Dayann Methalie | 0.04 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 38' |
Paris FC |
Marshall Munetsi | 0.44 | Open Play | Right Foot | Goal | Alimami Gory |
| 40' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.34 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Pape Diop |
| 49' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Pape Diop |
| 52' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.02 | From Corner | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 52' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.04 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 55' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.01 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Djibril Sidibe |
| 56' |
Toulouse |
Charlie Cresswell | 0.07 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
| 56' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.12 | From Corner | Left Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 59' |
Toulouse |
Yann Gboho | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 60' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.04 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 64' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.07 | Set Piece | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Charlie Cresswell |
| 65' |
Toulouse |
Jacen Russell-Rowe | 0.22 | Open Play | — | Missed Shot | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 70' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 72' |
Paris FC |
Pierre Lees-Melou | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Ilan Kebbal |
| 73' |
Toulouse |
Cristian Cásseres Jr. | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Yann Gboho |
| 74' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.03 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 78' |
Toulouse |
Pape Diop | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 79' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.07 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Julián Vignolo |
| 80' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Blocked Shot | Dayann Methalie |
| 85' |
Paris FC |
Jean-Phillipe Krasso | 0.13 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Luca Koleosho |
| 86' |
Toulouse |
Julián Vignolo | 0.78 | From Corner | Right Foot | Goal | Santiago Hidalgo |
| 86' |
Toulouse |
Santiago Hidalgo | 0.04 | From Corner | — | Missed Shot | Cristian Cásseres Jr. |
Players
Toulouse
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Hidalgo AMC | 90 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 0.59 | 1.13 | 1.24 |
| Pape Diop MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.59 | 0.36 | 0.92 |
| Yann Gboho AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 0.23 | 0.06 | 0.83 |
| Charlie Cresswell DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.07 | 0.36 |
| Cristian Cásseres Jr. MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 1.14 |
| Dayann Methalie DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.07 | 0.80 |
| Rasmus Nicolaisen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.53 |
| Djibril Sidibe DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.47 |
| Guillaume Restes GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Emersonn FW | 68 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.41 | 0.83 |
| Warren Kamanzi DMR | 65 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.40 |
| Julián Vignolo Sub | 25 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.81 | 0.07 | 0.09 |
| Jacen Russell-Rowe Sub | 22 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.24 |
| Mário Sauer Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Paris FC
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pierre Lees-Melou MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Otávio DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Diego Coppola DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Kevin Trapp GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.44 |
| Mamadou Mbow DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.51 |
| Nhoa Sangui DL | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Ilan Kebbal MR | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.07 | 0.10 |
| Ciro Immobile FW | 85 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Marshall Munetsi MC | 71 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.44 | 0.03 | 0.47 |
| Alimami Gory DR | 71 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 0.44 |
| Jonathan Ikone ML | 71 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thibault De Smet Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Luca Koleosho Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.13 | 0.20 |
| Vincent Marchetti Sub | 19 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Jean-Phillipe Krasso Sub | 5 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.13 |
| Moses Simon Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |