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Udinese v Atalanta — Prediction, Odds & Stats

Saturday 11 January 2025 · ITA-Serie A · 2425

Serie A xG

0–0
2.05 – 0.23 xG
Shots
12 – 4
On target
3 – 2
Shots in box
8 – 3
xG per shot
0.17 – 0.06
Set-piece xG
0.55 – 0.01
Goals − xG
-2.10 – -0.23
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals. A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.

Expected goals by minute

0.00.61.21.82.30'15'30'45'60'75'90'
Udinese 2.10 xGAtalanta 0.23 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance; filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings; lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping. Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.

Shot map

Martín Payero 5' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Set Piece)Florian Thauvin 21' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Hassane Kamara 25' — Blocked Shot (0.04 xG, Open Play)Mario Pasalic 30' — Saved Shot (0.09 xG, Open Play)Jaka Bijol 32' — Saved Shot (0.45 xG, From Corner)Sandi Lovric 32' — Blocked Shot (0.06 xG, Open Play)Alexis Sánchez 44' — Shot On Post (0.08 xG, Open Play)Alexis Sánchez 44' — Shot On Post (0.44 xG, Open Play)Kingsley Ehizibue 44' — Saved Shot (0.78 xG, Open Play)Sandi Lovric 44' — Blocked Shot (0.02 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 47' — Missed Shot (0.08 xG, Direct Freekick)Éderson 57' — Blocked Shot (0.05 xG, Open Play)Hassane Kamara 59' — Missed Shot (0.03 xG, Open Play)Florian Thauvin 71' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)Odilon Kossounou 73' — Missed Shot (0.01 xG, From Corner)Lazar Samardzic 94' — Saved Shot (0.08 xG, Open Play)
Udinese attacking right Atalanta attacking left Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.

Every shot

MinTeamPlayerxG SituationBody partResultAssisted by
5' Udinese Martín Payero 0.02 Set Piece Left Foot Blocked Shot
21' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.02 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot Kingsley Ehizibue
25' Udinese Hassane Kamara 0.04 Open Play Left Foot Blocked Shot
30' Atalanta Mario Pasalic 0.09 Open Play Right Foot Saved Shot
32' Udinese Jaka Bijol 0.45 From Corner Saved Shot Florian Thauvin
32' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.06 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot
44' Udinese Alexis Sánchez 0.08 Open Play Shot On Post Hassane Kamara
44' Udinese Alexis Sánchez 0.44 Open Play Right Foot Shot On Post
44' Udinese Kingsley Ehizibue 0.78 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Sandi Lovric
44' Udinese Sandi Lovric 0.02 Open Play Blocked Shot
47' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.08 Direct Freekick Left Foot Missed Shot
57' Atalanta Éderson 0.05 Open Play Right Foot Blocked Shot Mario Pasalic
59' Udinese Hassane Kamara 0.03 Open Play Left Foot Missed Shot Sandi Lovric
71' Udinese Florian Thauvin 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot Arthur Atta
73' Atalanta Odilon Kossounou 0.01 From Corner Missed Shot Lazar Samardzic
94' Atalanta Lazar Samardzic 0.08 Open Play Left Foot Saved Shot

Players

Udinese

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Jaka Bijol DC 90 0 0 1 0 0.45 0.00 0.13
Florian Thauvin FW 90 0 0 3 1 0.18 0.45 0.13
Hassane Kamara DML 90 0 0 2 1 0.07 0.08 0.15
Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Razvan Sava GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.02
Oumar Solet DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Jesper Karlström MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.03
Alexis Sánchez FW 83 0 0 2 0 0.52 0.00 0.67
Sandi Lovric MC 70 0 0 2 2 0.08 0.80 0.89
Martín Payero MC 70 0 0 1 0 0.02 0.00 0.05
Kingsley Ehizibue DMR 54 0 0 1 1 0.78 0.02 0.79
Rui Modesto Sub 36 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Arthur Atta Sub 20 0 0 0 1 0.00 0.08 0.08
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp Sub 20 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Iker Bravo Sub 7 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00

Atalanta

PlayerMinGA ShKPxGxA xGChain
Éderson MC 90 0 0 1 0 0.05 0.00 0.05
Sead Kolasinac DC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Raoul Bellanova MR 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Davide Zappacosta ML 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marten de Roon MC 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Marco Carnesecchi GK 90 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Charles De Ketelaere FW 85 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.05
Isak Hien Sub 67 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Mario Pasalic AMC 65 0 0 1 1 0.09 0.05 0.14
Ademola Lookman FW 65 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Giorgio Scalvini DC 49 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Odilon Kossounou Sub 41 0 0 1 0 0.01 0.00 0.00
Lazar Samardzic Sub 25 0 0 1 1 0.08 0.01 0.08
Nicolo Zaniolo Sub 25 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Berat Gjimshiti DC 23 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
Marco Brescianini Sub 5 0 0 0 0 0.00 0.00 0.00
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Match

What this page is for

One fixture in full. The model's probability for every market it prices, the prices stored against them, the teams expected to feature, and for a match already played, the shot map and the xG timeline.

How to read the shot map

Every shot is placed where it was taken and sized by its chance of being scored. A cluster of small marks from distance and a clean sheet is a side that was busy without ever threatening; two big marks and a defeat is a side that had the better of it and lost anyway. Both happen constantly, and both are invisible in the score.

How to read the xG timeline

The steps are chances as they arrived, so the shape shows who was on top and when. A flat line that jumps once near the end is a smash and grab.

Things to watch

The stored prediction is the one made before the match, kept deliberately so it can be judged afterwards. It is not re-fitted with hindsight.

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