Udinese v Roma — Prediction, Odds & Stats
Monday 2 February 2026 · ITA-Serie A · 2526
Serie A
xG Prediction generated
Shots
7 – 10
On target
4 – 3
Shots in box
1 – 7
xG per shot
0.09 – 0.07
Set-piece xG
0.61 – 0.26
Goals − xG
+0.35 – -0.67
AI prediction
ai-blend-oos No snapshot has been taken for this fixture yet; this is the stored price.Udinese win
15.3%
Draw
23.1%
Roma win
61.6%
Probabilities, not certainties. How they are made: the methodology.
Was this pick made in advance?
A model whose name ends
-oos is out of sample: it was fitted only on matches
played before this one, so its pick is a genuine forecast rather than hindsight.
Anything without that suffix was fitted on all available data.What the chances say
Udinese are conceding sharply fewer than expected — 5.5 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
DWLDWWLLDW last 10
scored 14
from 14.7 xG
conceded 9
from 14.5 xG
Roma are conceding fewer than expected — 2.6 goals saved beyond what the chances suggest.
WDWWWWWWWW last 10
scored 27
from 27.0 xG
conceded 4
from 6.6 xG
Finishing swings far more than chance creation, so a gap this size usually narrows. Over ten matches it is suggestive, not settled — a genuinely elite finisher beats expected goals for years.
What the model said
| Model | Home / Draw / Away | Expected goals | Likeliest score | O2.5 | BTTS | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ai-blend-oos | 0.72–1.73 | 0% | 0% | 0% | Away ✗ | |
| dc-xg-oos | 1.21–1.59 | 1-1 12% | 53% | 56% | Away ✗ |
A model whose name ends -oos was produced by the walk-forward backtest:
it was fitted only on matches played before this one, so the pick is genuinely out of sample.
Reading the xG timeline
Each step up is a shot; the height of the step is how good the chance was. Dots mark goals.
A side whose line climbs steadily created chances all match. A side that scored while its
line stayed flat took a rare chance — that is finishing luck, and it rarely repeats.
Expected goals by minute
Udinese 0.65 xGRoma 0.67 xG
Reading the shot map
Each circle is a shot, placed where it was taken. Bigger means a better chance;
filled circles are goals. Clusters near the goal mean a side worked good openings;
lots of small circles far out means shooting from poor positions and hoping.
Hover any circle for the player, minute and chance quality.
Shot map
Udinese attacking right
Roma attacking left
Marker size is xG; filled markers are goals.
Every shot
| Min | Team | Player | xG | Situation | Body part | Result | Assisted by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4' |
 Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.06 | From Corner | — | Blocked Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 7' |
 Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Set Piece | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Jordan Zemura |
| 7' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Kingsley Ehizibue |
| 7' |
Udinese |
Oumar Solet | 0.50 | From Corner | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 28' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.13 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Matìas Soulè Malvano |
| 38' |
Udinese |
Arthur Atta | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jurgen Ekkelenkamp |
| 39' |
Udinese |
Lennon Miller | 0.02 | Open Play | Right Foot | Missed Shot | Jesper Karlström |
| 44' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.10 | Direct Freekick | Left Foot | Missed Shot | — |
| 47' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.05 | Open Play | Left Foot | Saved Shot | Donyell Malen |
| 48' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Goal | — |
| 57' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.02 | Open Play | — | Blocked Shot | Wesley |
| 61' |
Roma |
Matìas Soulè Malvano | 0.07 | Open Play | Left Foot | Missed Shot | Lorenzo Pellegrini |
| 69' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.09 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 71' |
Roma |
Donyell Malen | 0.05 | Open Play | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | Gianluca Mancini |
| 75' |
Udinese |
Jurgen Ekkelenkamp | 0.04 | Direct Freekick | Right Foot | Saved Shot | — |
| 83' |
Roma |
Wesley | 0.02 | From Corner | Right Foot | Blocked Shot | — |
| 96' |
Roma |
Gianluca Mancini | 0.09 | Open Play | Right Foot | Saved Shot | Wesley |
Players
Udinese
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Solet DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jurgen Ekkelenkamp AMC | 90 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Arthur Atta AMC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Jesper Karlström MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.04 |
| Jordan Zemura DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 |
| Kingsley Ehizibue DMR | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| Maduka Okoye GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Thomas Thiesson Kristensen DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Lennon Miller MC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Nicolò Bertola DC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.04 |
| Keinan Davis FW | 58 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Idrissa Gueye Sub | 32 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Oier Zarraga Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Christian Kabasele Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Nicolo Zaniolo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Vakoun Bayo Sub | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Roma
| Player | Min | G | A | Sh | KP | xG | xA | xGChain |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Donyell Malen FW | 90 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.05 | 0.25 |
| Gianluca Mancini DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.05 | 0.14 |
| Wesley DML | 90 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.10 | 0.23 |
| Evan Ndicka DC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Bryan Cristante MC | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.20 |
| Mile Svilar GK | 90 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matìas Soulè Malvano AMC | 81 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0.17 | 0.19 | 0.20 |
| Mehmet Zeki Çelik DMR | 81 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.07 |
| Neil El Aynaoui MC | 80 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.02 |
| Mario Hermoso DC | 72 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.05 |
| Lorenzo Pellegrini AMC | 69 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.14 |
| Lorenzo Venturino Sub | 21 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Daniele Ghilardi Sub | 18 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Niccolò Pisilli Sub | 10 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.09 |
| Robinio Vaz Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Konstantinos Tsimikas Sub | 9 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |